Evaluation on sustainability of water resource in karst area based on the emergy ecological footprint model and analysis of its driving factors: a case study of Guiyang city, China

Measurement and analysis of water ecological carrying capacity in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China

Water ecological carrying capacity (WECC) is a crucial index for measuring regional sustainable development. To investigate the evolution of WECC in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB), this study constructed a comprehensive index system consisting of 23 indicators from six interconnected dimensions of water systems. The back propagation neural network (BPNN) model was used to quantify WECC in YREB from 2010 to 2021, and ArcGIS was utilized to visualize the distribution of WECC. To identify sensitive indicators under subsystems, sensitivity analysis was conducted based on the one-at-a-time (OAT) method. Additionally, time-series prediction of WECC was performed using the exponential smoothing (ES) method. Finally, the coupling coordinated degree (CCD) of subsystems in each province from 2010 to 2021 was calculated. The results indicated that the average WECC in YREB gradually increased from 2010 to 2021, with significant provincial differences. Sensitivity analysis revealed that R1, U2, Q4, S2, M3 and B1 had the most substantial impacts on the WECC of subsystems (Sub-CC). The fitting curve between the CCD and WECC showed that as CCD increased, the growth rate of WECC gradually slowed down. Based on these findings, relevant suggestions were proposed to improve WECC and promote the regional sustainable development in YREB.

Water consumption prediction and influencing factor analysis based on PCA-BP neural network in karst regions: a case study of Guizhou Province

Water consumption prediction is an integral part of water resource planning and management. Constructing a highly precise water consumption prediction model is of great significance for promoting regional water resource planning and high-quality development of the socio-economy. This paper focuses on the case of the typical karst region in Guizhou Province in China. Based on data on water consumption and its influencing factors spanning 2000-2020, the principal component analysis method was applied to reduce the dimensionality of 16 influencing factors of water consumption in Guizhou; the principal components extracted were used as input samples of the BP neural network and a PCA-BP neural network water consumption prediction model was conducted to predict water consumption of Guizhou Province in the next 10 years. The results show that the mean absolute error and mean relative error of prediction based on the constructed PCA-BP neural network were 2.8% and 2.9%, respectively, with superior performance in terms of prediction error and trends compared with other models. This paper discusses the main influencing factors of water consumption and analyzes their influence on the water consumption forecasting model so that the parameters of the water consumption forecasting model can be selected more efficiently and provide a reference for regional water consumption analysis and water resource planning and management.

Decoupling of water resources utilization and coordinated economic development in China's Hexi Corridor based on ecological water resource footprint

The rapid growth of population and economy leads to a further increase in demand for water resources. The contradiction between supply and demand of water resources has become the main bottleneck restricting sustainable development of a regional social economy. Accurate measurement of regional water usage and the harmonious balance between water consumption (WC) and economic growth (EG) are the premise of regional high-quality development. Based on this premise, this paper studied the arid oasis region, Hexi Corridor, as the research object; utilized the theory of ecological footprint to calculate the ecological footprint (EFW) and ecological carrying capacity (ECCW) of water resources from 2005 to 2019; and quantitatively analyzed the water utilization situation in Hexi Corridor in the past 15 years. Then, combining with the coordinated development decoupling evaluation model, the connection between WC and EG was evaluated. The main results of this study were as follows: (1) During the study period, EFW has shown a fluctuating downward trend, decreasing from 1.745 in 2015 to 1.588 hm²/person in 2019. The average annual EFW per capita of 10,000 yuan of GDP decreased by 10.18%, which showed that the water resources utilization efficiency was gradually increasing. However, there was still a large water deficit. The average water ecological pressure index was 16.55; water resources were under great pressure. (2) From 2005 to 2019, the relationship between WC and EG experienced stages of strong decoupling-weak decoupling-weak negative decoupling-strong decoupling in Hexi Corridor, and the coordination between the two was gradually strengthened. (3) The decoupling status of the Hexi Corridor cities was gradually optimized. Zhangye was the best and in a stable decoupling state, followed by Wuwei and Jiuquan. The number of decoupling years accounted for 85.7% and 78.6% of the evaluation period, respectively. The cities with poor decoupling status were Jiayuguan and Jinchang, and the number of decoupling years accounted for 71.4% and 57.1%, respectively. This study provides some highlights for the formulation of arid oasis regional water strategy.

Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use Changes with Ecosystem Service Value in the Yellow River Basin

Land use change plays a crucial role in global environmental change. Understanding the mode and land use change procedure is conducive to improving the quality of the global eco-environment and promoting the harmonized development of human–land relationships. Large river basins play an important role in areal socioeconomic development. The Yellow River Basin (YRB) is an important ecological protective screen, economic zone, and major grain producing area in China, which faces challenges with respect to ecological degradation and water and sediment management. Simulating the alterations in ecosystem service value (ESV) owing to land use change in the YRB under multiple scenarios is of great importance to guaranteeing the ecological security of the basin and improve the regional ESV. According to the land use data of 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2018, the alterations in the land use and ESV in the YRB over the past 30 years were calculated and analyzed on the basis of six land use types: cultivated land, forestland, grassland, water area, built-up land, and unused land. The patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model was used to simulate the land use change in the study area under three scenarios (natural development, cultivated land protection, and ecological protection in 2026); estimate the ESV under each scenario; and conduct a comparative analysis. We found that the land use area in the YRB changed significantly during the study period. The ESV of the YRB has slowly increased by ~USD 15 billion over the past 30 years. The ESV obtained under the ecological protection scenario is the highest. The simulation of the YRB’s future land use change, and comparison and analysis of the ESV under different scenarios, provide guidance and a scientific basis for promoting ecological conservation and high-quality development of river basins worldwide.