1
|
Xiong W, Roy J, Liu H, Hu L. Leveraging machine learning: Covariate-adjusted Bayesian adaptive randomization and subgroup discovery in multi-arm survival trials. Contemp Clin Trials 2024; 142:107547. [PMID: 38688389 DOI: 10.1016/j.cct.2024.107547] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/08/2023] [Revised: 04/17/2024] [Accepted: 04/25/2024] [Indexed: 05/02/2024]
Abstract
Clinical trials evaluate the safety and efficacy of treatments for specific diseases. Ensuring these studies are well-powered is crucial for identifying superior treatments. With the rise of personalized medicine, treatment efficacy may vary based on biomarker profiles. However, researchers often lack prior knowledge about which biomarkers are linked to varied treatment effects. Fixed or response-adaptive designs may not sufficiently account for heterogeneous patient characteristics, such as genetic diversity, potentially reducing the chance of selecting the optimal treatment for individuals. Recent advances in Bayesian nonparametric modeling pave the way for innovative trial designs that not only maintain robust power but also offer the flexibility to identify subgroups deriving greater benefits from specific treatments. Building on this inspiration, we introduce a Bayesian adaptive design for multi-arm trials focusing on time-to-event endpoints. We introduce a covariate-adjusted response adaptive randomization, updating treatment allocation probabilities grounded on causal effect estimates using a random intercept accelerated failure time BART model. After the trial concludes, we suggest employing a multi-response decision tree to pinpoint subgroups with varying treatment impacts. The performance of our design is then assessed via comprehensive simulations.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Wenxuan Xiong
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Rutgers University School of Public Health, Piscataway, NJ, USA.
| | - Jason Roy
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Rutgers University School of Public Health, Piscataway, NJ, USA
| | - Hao Liu
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Rutgers University School of Public Health, Piscataway, NJ, USA; Cancer Institute of New Jersey, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA
| | - Liangyuan Hu
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Rutgers University School of Public Health, Piscataway, NJ, USA
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Nuthalapati P, Thomas L, Donahue MA, Moura LMVR, DeStefano S, Simpson JR, Buchhalter J, Fureman BE, Pellinen J. Improving Seizure Frequency Documentation and Classification. Neurol Clin Pract 2023; 13:e200212. [PMID: 37873534 PMCID: PMC10586801 DOI: 10.1212/cpj.0000000000200212] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/07/2023] [Accepted: 09/01/2023] [Indexed: 10/25/2023]
Abstract
Background and Objectives Accurate and reliable seizure data are essential for evaluating treatment strategies and tracking the quality of care in epilepsy clinics. This quality improvement project aimed to increase seizure documentation (i.e., documentation of seizure frequency from 80% to 100%, date of last seizure from 35% to 50%, and International League Against Epilepsy (ILAE) seizure classification from 35% to at least 50%) over 6 months. Methods We surveyed 7 epileptologists to determine their perceived seizure frequency, ILAE classification, and date of last seizure documentation habits. Baseline data were collected weekly from September to December 2021. Subsequently, we implemented a newly created flowsheet in our Electronic Health Record (EHR) based on the Epilepsy Learning Healthcare System (ELHS) Case Report Forms to increase seizure documentation in a standardized way. Two epileptologists tested this flowsheet tool in their epilepsy clinics between February 2022 and July 2022. Data were collected weekly and compared with documentation from other epileptologists within the same group. Results Epileptologists at our center believed they documented seizure frequency for 84%-87% of clinic visits, which aligned with baseline data collection, showing they recorded seizure frequency for 83% of clinic visits. Epileptologists believed they documented ILAE classification for 47%-52% of clinic visits, and baseline data showed this was documented in 33% of clinic visits. They also reported documenting the date of the last seizure for 52%-63% of clinic visits, but this occurred in only 35% of clinic visits. After implementing the new flowsheet, documentation increased to nearly 100% for all fields being completed by the providers who tested the flowsheet. Discussion We demonstrated that by implementing an easy-to-use standardized EHR documentation tool, our documentation of critical metrics, as defined by the ELHS, improved dramatically. This shows that simple and practical interventions can substantially improve clinically meaningful documentation.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Poojith Nuthalapati
- Department of Neurology (PN, MAD, LMVRM), Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston; Department of Neurology (LT, SD, JRS, JP), University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora; Department of Pediatrics (JB), Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, AB, CA; and Mission Outcomes Team (BEF), Epilepsy Foundation, Landover, MD
| | - Lionel Thomas
- Department of Neurology (PN, MAD, LMVRM), Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston; Department of Neurology (LT, SD, JRS, JP), University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora; Department of Pediatrics (JB), Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, AB, CA; and Mission Outcomes Team (BEF), Epilepsy Foundation, Landover, MD
| | - Maria A Donahue
- Department of Neurology (PN, MAD, LMVRM), Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston; Department of Neurology (LT, SD, JRS, JP), University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora; Department of Pediatrics (JB), Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, AB, CA; and Mission Outcomes Team (BEF), Epilepsy Foundation, Landover, MD
| | - Lidia M V R Moura
- Department of Neurology (PN, MAD, LMVRM), Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston; Department of Neurology (LT, SD, JRS, JP), University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora; Department of Pediatrics (JB), Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, AB, CA; and Mission Outcomes Team (BEF), Epilepsy Foundation, Landover, MD
| | - Samuel DeStefano
- Department of Neurology (PN, MAD, LMVRM), Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston; Department of Neurology (LT, SD, JRS, JP), University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora; Department of Pediatrics (JB), Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, AB, CA; and Mission Outcomes Team (BEF), Epilepsy Foundation, Landover, MD
| | - Jennifer R Simpson
- Department of Neurology (PN, MAD, LMVRM), Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston; Department of Neurology (LT, SD, JRS, JP), University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora; Department of Pediatrics (JB), Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, AB, CA; and Mission Outcomes Team (BEF), Epilepsy Foundation, Landover, MD
| | - Jeffrey Buchhalter
- Department of Neurology (PN, MAD, LMVRM), Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston; Department of Neurology (LT, SD, JRS, JP), University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora; Department of Pediatrics (JB), Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, AB, CA; and Mission Outcomes Team (BEF), Epilepsy Foundation, Landover, MD
| | - Brandy E Fureman
- Department of Neurology (PN, MAD, LMVRM), Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston; Department of Neurology (LT, SD, JRS, JP), University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora; Department of Pediatrics (JB), Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, AB, CA; and Mission Outcomes Team (BEF), Epilepsy Foundation, Landover, MD
| | - Jacob Pellinen
- Department of Neurology (PN, MAD, LMVRM), Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston; Department of Neurology (LT, SD, JRS, JP), University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora; Department of Pediatrics (JB), Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, AB, CA; and Mission Outcomes Team (BEF), Epilepsy Foundation, Landover, MD
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Lee J, Thall PF, Msaouel P. Bayesian treatment screening and selection using subgroup-specific utilities of response and toxicity. Biometrics 2023; 79:2458-2473. [PMID: 35974457 PMCID: PMC9931950 DOI: 10.1111/biom.13738] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/20/2021] [Accepted: 08/04/2022] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
A Bayesian design is proposed for randomized phase II clinical trials that screen multiple experimental treatments compared to an active control based on ordinal categorical toxicity and response. The underlying model and design account for patient heterogeneity characterized by ordered prognostic subgroups. All decision criteria are subgroup specific, including interim rules for dropping unsafe or ineffective treatments, and criteria for selecting optimal treatments at the end of the trial. The design requires an elicited utility function of the two outcomes that varies with the subgroups. Final treatment selections are based on posterior mean utilities. The methodology is illustrated by a trial of targeted agents for metastatic renal cancer, which motivated the design methodology. In the context of this application, the design is evaluated by computer simulation, including comparison to three designs that conduct separate trials within subgroups, or conduct one trial while ignoring subgroups, or base treatment selection on estimated response rates while ignoring toxicity.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Juhee Lee
- Department of Statistics, Baskin School of Engineering, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, USA
| | - Peter F Thall
- Department of Biostatistics, M.D. Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas, USA
| | - Pavlos Msaouel
- Departments of Genitourinary Medical Oncology and Translational Molecular Pathology, M.D. Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas, USA
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Schnell PM. Controlling the false-discovery rate when identifying the subgroup benefiting from treatment. Clin Trials 2023:17407745231169300. [PMID: 37122134 DOI: 10.1177/17407745231169300] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/02/2023]
Abstract
One common goal of subgroup analyses is to determine which (if any) types of patients-sets of patients sharing a vector of baseline covariates-benefit from a particular treatment. Many approaches involve testing, implicitly or explicitly, hypotheses about many patient types which are nonexchangeable. Methods of controlling family-wise Type I error rate inflation in such approaches are available. Such methods are designed to control the rate of erroneously declaring at least one type of patient as benefiting and are, therefore, quite conservative. We present a method for instead controlling a weighted false discovery rate in the sense of controlling the expected proportion of patient types declared benefiting, weighted by their population prevalence, which do not in fact benefit from treatment. Such population-weighted false discovery rate control is analogous to maintaining the positive predictive value of a diagnostic test for expected benefit. We minimize power loss by using a resampling approach that accounts for correlation among test statistics corresponding to similar patient types. Simulation studies demonstrate successful control of the weighted false discovery rate by the proposed method, as well as anti-conservativeness in the absence of multiplicity corrections and conservativeness by methods controlling the false discovery rate without accounting for dependent test statistics or controlling the family-wise error rate. An analysis of a clinical trial of an Alzheimer's disease treatment illustrates the approach on real data. Resampling-based methods allow weighted false discovery rate control without unnecessarily sacrificing power when treatment effect estimates are correlated among patient types, and admit useful interpretations in terms of bounding sets and positive predictive value.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Patrick M Schnell
- College of Public Health, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA
| |
Collapse
|
5
|
Du Y, Chen H, Varadhan R. Lasso estimation of hierarchical interactions for analyzing heterogeneity of treatment effect. Stat Med 2021; 40:5417-5433. [PMID: 34240443 DOI: 10.1002/sim.9132] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/27/2019] [Revised: 12/14/2020] [Accepted: 12/30/2020] [Indexed: 11/12/2022]
Abstract
Individuals differ in how they respond to a given treatment. In an effort to predict the treatment response and analyze the heterogeneity of treatment effect, we propose a general modeling framework by identifying treatment-covariate interactions honoring a hierarchical condition. We construct a single-step l 1 norm penalty procedure that maintains the hierarchical structure of interactions in the sense that a treatment-covariate interaction term is included in the model only when either the covariate or both the covariate and treatment have nonzero main effects. We developed a constrained Lasso approach with two parameterization schemes that enforce the hierarchical interaction restriction differently. We solved the resulting constrained optimization problem using a spectral projected gradient method. We compared our methods to the unstructured Lasso using simulation studies including a scenario that violates the hierarchical condition (misspecified model). The simulations showed that our methods yielded more parsimonious models and outperformed the unstructured Lasso for correctly identifying nonzero treatment-covariate interactions. The superior performance of our methods are also corroborated by an application to a large randomized clinical trial data investigating a drug for treating congestive heart failure (N = 2569). Our methods provide a well-suited approach for doing secondary analysis in clinical trials to analyze heterogeneous treatment effects and to identify predictive biomarkers.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Yu Du
- Department of Biometrics, Eli Lilly and Company, Indianapolis, Indiana, USA
| | - Huan Chen
- Department of Biostatistics, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Ravi Varadhan
- Department of Biostatistics, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.,Division of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Department of Oncology, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| |
Collapse
|
6
|
Abstract
Adaptive enrichment designs for clinical trials may include rules that use interim data to identify treatment-sensitive patient subgroups, select or compare treatments, or change entry criteria. A common setting is a trial to compare a new biologically targeted agent to standard therapy. An enrichment design's structure depends on its goals, how it accounts for patient heterogeneity and treatment effects, and practical constraints. This article first covers basic concepts, including treatment-biomarker interaction, precision medicine, selection bias, and sequentially adaptive decision making, and briefly describes some different types of enrichment. Numerical illustrations are provided for qualitatively different cases involving treatment-biomarker interactions. Reviews are given of adaptive signature designs; a Bayesian design that uses a random partition to identify treatment-sensitive biomarker subgroups and assign treatments; and designs that enrich superior treatment sample sizes overall or within subgroups, make subgroup-specific decisions, or include outcome-adaptive randomization.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Peter F Thall
- Department of Biostatistics, M.D. Anderson Cancer Center, University of Texas, Houston, Texas 77030, USA
| |
Collapse
|
7
|
Mitra R, Müller P, Bhattacharyya A. Bayesian Decision-Theoretic Methods for Survival Data using Stochastic Optimization. Stat Med 2020; 39:4841-4852. [PMID: 33063387 DOI: 10.1002/sim.8755] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/21/2019] [Revised: 08/24/2020] [Accepted: 08/28/2020] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
Abstract
We introduce a principled method for Bayesian subgroup analysis. The approach is based on casting subgroup analysis as a Bayesian decision problem. The two main innovations are: (1) the explicit consideration of a "subgroup report," comprising multiple subpopulations; and (2) adapting an inhomogeneous Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation scheme to implement stochastic optimization. The latter makes the search for "subgroup reports" practically feasible.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Riten Mitra
- Department of Bioinformatics and Biostatistics, University of Louisville, Louisville, Kentucky, USA
| | - Peter Müller
- Department of Mathematics, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas, USA
| | - Arinjita Bhattacharyya
- Department of Bioinformatics and Biostatistics, University of Louisville, Louisville, Kentucky, USA
| |
Collapse
|
8
|
Schnell PM. Monte Carlo approaches to frequentist multiplicity-adjusted benefiting subgroup identification. Stat Methods Med Res 2020; 30:1026-1041. [PMID: 33256562 DOI: 10.1177/0962280220973705] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
One common goal of subgroup analyses is to determine the subgroup of the population for which a given treatment is effective. Like most problems in subgroup analyses, this benefiting subgroup identification requires careful attention to multiple testing considerations, especially Type I error inflation. To partially address these concerns, the credible subgroups approach provides a pair of bounding subgroups for the benefiting subgroup, constructed so that with high posterior probability one is contained by the benefiting subgroup while the other contains the benefiting subgroup. To date, this approach has been presented within the Bayesian paradigm only, and requires sampling from the posterior of a Bayesian model. Additionally, in many cases, such as regulatory submission, guarantees of frequentist operating characteristics are helpful or necessary. We present Monte Carlo approaches to constructing confidence subgroups, frequentist analogues to credible subgroups that replace the posterior distribution with an estimate of the joint distribution of personalized treatment effect estimates, and yield frequentist interpretations and coverage guarantees. The estimated joint distribution is produced using either draws from asymptotic sampling distributions of estimated model parameters, or bootstrap resampling schemes. The approach is applied to a publicly available dataset from randomized trials of Alzheimer's disease treatments.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Patrick M Schnell
- Division of Biostatistics, The 2647Ohio State University College of Public Health, Ohio, USA
| |
Collapse
|
9
|
Liu Z, Ma X, Wang Z. Subgroup-adaptive randomization for subgroup confirmation in clinical trials. Biom J 2020; 63:616-631. [PMID: 33245162 DOI: 10.1002/bimj.201900333] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/04/2019] [Revised: 09/19/2020] [Accepted: 10/21/2020] [Indexed: 11/07/2022]
Abstract
A well-known issue when testing for treatment-by-subgroup interaction is its low power, as clinical trials are generally powered for establishing efficacy claims for the overall population, and they are usually not adequately powered for detecting interaction (Alosh, Huque, & Koch [2015] Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics, 25, 1161-1178). Hence, it is necessary to develop an adaptive design to improve the efficiency of detecting heterogeneous treatment effects within subgroups. Considering Neyman allocation can maximize the power of usual Z-test (see p. 194 of the book edited by Rosenberger and Lachin), we propose a subgroup-adaptive randomization procedure aiming to achieve Neyman allocation in both predefined subgroups and overall study population in this paper. To verify whether the proposed randomization procedure works as intended, relevant theoretical results are derived and displayed . Numerical studies show that the proposed randomization procedure has obvious advantages in power of tests compared with complete randomization and Pocock and Simon's minimization method.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Zhongqiang Liu
- School of Mathematics and Information Science, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo, P. R. China
| | - Xuesi Ma
- School of Mathematics and Information Science, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo, P. R. China
| | - Zhaoliang Wang
- School of Mathematics and Information Science, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo, P. R. China
| |
Collapse
|
10
|
Tsimberidou AM, Müller P, Ji Y. Innovative trial design in precision oncology. Semin Cancer Biol 2020; 84:284-292. [DOI: 10.1016/j.semcancer.2020.09.006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/09/2020] [Accepted: 09/09/2020] [Indexed: 01/01/2023]
|
11
|
Affiliation(s)
- Guosheng Yin
- Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong
| | - Zhao Yang
- Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong
| | | | | |
Collapse
|
12
|
Abstract
Developing targeted therapies based on patients' baseline characteristics and genomic profiles such as biomarkers has gained growing interests in recent years. Depending on patients' clinical characteristics, the expression of specific biomarkers or their combinations, different patient subgroups could respond differently to the same treatment. An ideal design, especially at the proof of concept stage, should search for such subgroups and make dynamic adaptation as the trial goes on. When no prior knowledge is available on whether the treatment works on the all-comer population or only works on the subgroup defined by one biomarker or several biomarkers, it is necessary to incorporate the adaptive estimation of the heterogeneous treatment effect to the decision-making at interim analyses. To address this problem, we propose an Adaptive Subgroup-Identification Enrichment Design, ASIED, to simultaneously search for predictive biomarkers, identify the subgroups with differential treatment effects, and modify study entry criteria at interim analyses when justified. More importantly, we construct robust quantitative decision-making rules for population enrichment when the interim outcomes are heterogeneous in the context of a multilevel target product profile, which defines the minimal and targeted levels of treatment effect. Through extensive simulations, the ASIED is demonstrated to achieve desirable operating characteristics and compare favorably against alternatives.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Yanxun Xu
- Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, Johns Hopkins University , Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Florica Constantine
- Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, Johns Hopkins University , Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Yuan Yuan
- Late Respiratory Inflammatory and Autoimmunity Biometrics, AstraZeneca , Gaithersburg, Maryland, USA
| | - Yili L Pritchett
- Biometrics, G1 Therapeutics, Inc., Research Triangle Park , NC, USA
| |
Collapse
|
13
|
Nugent C, Guo W, Müller P, Ji Y. Bayesian Approaches to Subgroup Analysis and Related Adaptive Clinical Trial Designs. JCO Precis Oncol 2019; 3:PO.19.00003. [PMID: 32923858 PMCID: PMC7446414 DOI: 10.1200/po.19.00003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 03/29/2019] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
We review Bayesian and Bayesian decision theoretic approaches to subgroup analysis and applications to subgroup-based adaptive clinical trial designs. Subgroup analysis refers to inference about subpopulations with significantly distinct treatment effects. The discussion mainly focuses on inference for a benefiting subpopulation, that is, a characterization of a group of patients who benefit from the treatment under consideration more than the overall population. We introduce alternative approaches and demonstrate them with a small simulation study. Then, we turn to clinical trial designs. When the selection of the interesting subpopulation is carried out as the trial proceeds, the design becomes an adaptive clinical trial design, using subgroup analysis to inform the randomization and assignment of treatments to patients. We briefly review some related designs. There are a variety of approaches to Bayesian subgroup analysis. Practitioners should consider the type of subpopulations in which they are interested and choose their methods accordingly. We demonstrate how subgroup analysis can be carried out by different Bayesian methods and discuss how they identify slightly different subpopulations.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - Yuan Ji
- University of Chicago, Chicago, IL
| |
Collapse
|
14
|
Vanderbeek AM, Rahman R, Fell G, Ventz S, Chen T, Redd R, Parmigiani G, Cloughesy TF, Wen PY, Trippa L, Alexander BM. The clinical trials landscape for glioblastoma: is it adequate to develop new treatments? Neuro Oncol 2019. [PMID: 29518210 DOI: 10.1093/neuonc/noy027] [Citation(s) in RCA: 58] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Background There have been few treatment advances for patients with glioblastoma (GBM) despite increasing scientific understanding of the disease. While factors such as intrinsic tumor biology and drug delivery are challenges to developing efficacious therapies, it is unclear whether the current clinical trial landscape is optimally evaluating new therapies and biomarkers. Methods We queried ClinicalTrials.gov for interventional clinical trials for patients with GBM initiated between January 2005 and December 2016 and abstracted data regarding phase, status, start and end dates, testing locations, endpoints, experimental interventions, sample size, clinical presentation/indication, and design to better understand the clinical trials landscape. Results Only approximately 8%-11% of patients with newly diagnosed GBM enroll on clinical trials with a similar estimate for all patients with GBM. Trial duration was similar across phases with median time to completion between 3 and 4 years. While 93% of clinical trials were in phases I-II, 26% of the overall clinical trial patient population was enrolled on phase III studies. Of the 8 completed phase III trials, only 1 reported positive results. Although 58% of the phase III trials were supported by phase II data with a similar endpoint, only 25% of these phase II trials were randomized. Conclusions The clinical trials landscape for GBM is characterized by long development times, inadequate dissemination of information, suboptimal go/no-go decision making, and low patient participation.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Alyssa M Vanderbeek
- Department of Radiation Oncology, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts.,Dana-Farber Program in Regulatory Science, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Rifaquat Rahman
- Department of Radiation Oncology, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts.,Dana-Farber Program in Regulatory Science, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Geoffrey Fell
- Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts.,Department of Biostatistics and Computational Biology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts.,Dana-Farber Program in Regulatory Science, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Steffen Ventz
- Dana-Farber Program in Regulatory Science, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts.,Department of Computer Science and Statistics, University of Rhode Island, Kingston, Rhode Island
| | - Tianqi Chen
- Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts.,Department of Biostatistics and Computational Biology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts.,Dana-Farber Program in Regulatory Science, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Robert Redd
- Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts.,Department of Biostatistics and Computational Biology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts.,Dana-Farber Program in Regulatory Science, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Giovanni Parmigiani
- Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts.,Department of Biostatistics and Computational Biology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts.,Dana-Farber Program in Regulatory Science, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts
| | | | - Patrick Y Wen
- Center for Neuro-Oncology, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Lorenzo Trippa
- Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts.,Department of Biostatistics and Computational Biology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts.,Dana-Farber Program in Regulatory Science, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Brian M Alexander
- Department of Radiation Oncology, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts.,Center for Neuro-Oncology, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts.,Dana-Farber Program in Regulatory Science, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts
| |
Collapse
|
15
|
Simon KC, Yucus C, Castle J, Chesis R, Lai R, Hillman L, Tideman S, Garduno L, Meyers S, Frigerio R, Maraganore DM. Building of EMR Tools to Support Quality and Research in a Memory Disorders Clinic. Front Neurol 2019; 10:161. [PMID: 30899241 PMCID: PMC6416163 DOI: 10.3389/fneur.2019.00161] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/21/2018] [Accepted: 02/07/2019] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Abstract
The electronic medical record (EMR) presents an opportunity to standardize patient data collection based on quality guidelines and conduct practice-based research. We describe the development of a customized EMR “toolkit” that standardizes patient data collection with hundreds of discrete fields that supports Best Practices for treating patients with memory disorders. The toolkit also supports practice-based research. We describe the design and successful implementation of a customized EMR toolkit to support Best Practices in the care of patients with memory disorders. We discuss applications, including quality improvement projects and current research initiatives, using the toolkit. This toolkit is being shared with other departments of Neurology as part of the Neurology Practice-Based Research Network. Data collection is ongoing, including longitudinal follow-up. This toolkit will generate data that will allow for descriptive and hypothesis driven research as well-quality improvement among patients seen in a memory clinic.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Kelly Claire Simon
- Department of Neurology, NorthShore University HealthSystem, Evanston, IL, United States
| | - Chad Yucus
- Department of Neurology, NorthShore University HealthSystem, Evanston, IL, United States
| | - James Castle
- Department of Neurology, NorthShore University HealthSystem, Evanston, IL, United States
| | - Richard Chesis
- Health Information Technology, NorthShore University HealthSystem, Evanston, IL, United States
| | - Rebekah Lai
- Health Information Technology, NorthShore University HealthSystem, Evanston, IL, United States
| | - Laura Hillman
- Health Information Technology, NorthShore University HealthSystem, Evanston, IL, United States
| | - Samuel Tideman
- Health Information Technology, NorthShore University HealthSystem, Evanston, IL, United States
| | - Lisette Garduno
- Department of Neurology, NorthShore University HealthSystem, Evanston, IL, United States
| | - Steven Meyers
- Department of Neurology, NorthShore University HealthSystem, Evanston, IL, United States
| | - Roberta Frigerio
- Department of Neurology, NorthShore University HealthSystem, Evanston, IL, United States
| | - Demetrius M Maraganore
- Department of Neurology, NorthShore University HealthSystem, Evanston, IL, United States
| |
Collapse
|
16
|
Affiliation(s)
- Steffen Ventz
- Department of Biostatistics and Computational Biology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, MA
- Department of Biostatistics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA
| | - Matteo Cellamare
- Department of Biostatistics and Computational Biology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, MA
- Department of Biostatistics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA
| | - Sergio Bacallado
- Statistical Laboratory, Center for the Mathematical Sciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Lorenzo Trippa
- Department of Biostatistics and Computational Biology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, MA
- Department of Biostatistics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA
| |
Collapse
|
17
|
Meyers S, Claire Simon K, Bergman-Bock S, Campanella F, Marcus R, Mark A, Freedom T, Rubin S, Semenov I, Lai R, Hillman L, Tideman S, Pham A, Frigerio R, Maraganore DM. Structured Clinical Documentation to Improve Quality and Support Practice-Based Research in Headache. Headache 2018; 58:1211-1218. [DOI: 10.1111/head.13348] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/29/2018] [Revised: 04/23/2018] [Accepted: 05/12/2018] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Steven Meyers
- Department of Neurology; NorthShore University HealthSystem; Evanston IL USA
| | - Kelly Claire Simon
- Department of Neurology; NorthShore University HealthSystem; Evanston IL USA
| | - Stuart Bergman-Bock
- Department of Neurology; NorthShore University HealthSystem; Evanston IL USA
| | - Franco Campanella
- Department of Neurology; NorthShore University HealthSystem; Evanston IL USA
| | - Revital Marcus
- Department of Neurology; NorthShore University HealthSystem; Evanston IL USA
| | - Angela Mark
- Department of Neurology; NorthShore University HealthSystem; Evanston IL USA
| | - Thomas Freedom
- Department of Neurology; NorthShore University HealthSystem; Evanston IL USA
| | - Susan Rubin
- Department of Neurology; NorthShore University HealthSystem; Evanston IL USA
| | - Irene Semenov
- Department of Neurology; NorthShore University HealthSystem; Evanston IL USA
| | - Rebekah Lai
- Health Information Technology, NorthShore University HealthSystem; Evanston IL USA
| | - Laura Hillman
- Health Information Technology, NorthShore University HealthSystem; Evanston IL USA
| | - Samuel Tideman
- Department of Neurology; NorthShore University HealthSystem; Evanston IL USA
| | - Anna Pham
- Department of Neurology; NorthShore University HealthSystem; Evanston IL USA
| | - Roberta Frigerio
- Department of Neurology; NorthShore University HealthSystem; Evanston IL USA
| | | |
Collapse
|
18
|
Simon KC, Tideman S, Hillman L, Lai R, Jathar R, Ji Y, Bergman-Bock S, Castle J, Franada T, Freedom T, Marcus R, Mark A, Meyers S, Rubin S, Semenov I, Yucus C, Pham A, Garduno L, Szela M, Frigerio R, Maraganore DM. Design and implementation of pragmatic clinical trials using the electronic medical record and an adaptive design. JAMIA Open 2018; 1:99-106. [PMID: 30386852 PMCID: PMC6207187 DOI: 10.1093/jamiaopen/ooy017] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Abstract
Objectives To demonstrate the feasibility of pragmatic clinical trials comparing the effectiveness of treatments using the electronic medical record (EMR) and an adaptive assignment design. Methods We have designed and are implementing pragmatic trials at the point-of-care using custom-designed structured clinical documentation support and clinical decision support tools within our physician's typical EMR workflow. We are applying a subgroup based adaptive design (SUBA) that enriches treatment assignments based on baseline characteristics and prior outcomes. SUBA uses information from a randomization phase (phase 1, equal randomization, 120 patients), to adaptively assign treatments to the remaining participants (at least 300 additional patients total) based on a Bayesian hierarchical model. Enrollment in phase 1 is underway in our neurology clinical practices for 2 separate trials using this method, for migraine and mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Results We are successfully collecting structured data, in the context of the providers' clinical workflow, necessary to conduct our trials. We are currently enrolling patients in 2 point-of-care trials of non-inferior treatments. As of March 1, 2018, we have enrolled 36% of eligible patients into our migraine study and 63% of eligible patients into our MCI study. Enrollment is ongoing and validation of outcomes has begun. Discussion This proof of concept article demonstrates the feasibility of conducting pragmatic trials using the EMR and an adaptive design. Conclusion The demonstration of successful pragmatic clinical trials based on a customized EMR and adaptive design is an important next step in achieving personalized medicine and provides a framework for future studies of comparative effectiveness.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Kelly Claire Simon
- Northshore Neurological Institute, NorthShore University Health System, Evanston, Illinois, USA
| | - Samuel Tideman
- Clinical Analytics, NorthShore University Health System, Evanston, Illinois, USA
| | - Laura Hillman
- Health Information Technology, NorthShore University Health System, Evanston, Illinois, USA
| | - Rebekah Lai
- Health Information Technology, NorthShore University Health System, Evanston, Illinois, USA
| | - Raman Jathar
- Health Information Technology, NorthShore University Health System, Evanston, Illinois, USA
| | - Yuan Ji
- Research Institute, NorthShore University Health System, Evanston, Illinois, USA
| | - Stuart Bergman-Bock
- Northshore Neurological Institute, NorthShore University Health System, Evanston, Illinois, USA
| | - James Castle
- Northshore Neurological Institute, NorthShore University Health System, Evanston, Illinois, USA
| | - Tiffani Franada
- Northshore Neurological Institute, NorthShore University Health System, Evanston, Illinois, USA
| | - Thomas Freedom
- Northshore Neurological Institute, NorthShore University Health System, Evanston, Illinois, USA
| | - Revital Marcus
- Northshore Neurological Institute, NorthShore University Health System, Evanston, Illinois, USA
| | - Angela Mark
- Northshore Neurological Institute, NorthShore University Health System, Evanston, Illinois, USA
| | - Steven Meyers
- Northshore Neurological Institute, NorthShore University Health System, Evanston, Illinois, USA
| | - Susan Rubin
- Northshore Neurological Institute, NorthShore University Health System, Evanston, Illinois, USA
| | - Irene Semenov
- Northshore Neurological Institute, NorthShore University Health System, Evanston, Illinois, USA
| | - Chad Yucus
- Northshore Neurological Institute, NorthShore University Health System, Evanston, Illinois, USA
| | - Anna Pham
- Northshore Neurological Institute, NorthShore University Health System, Evanston, Illinois, USA
| | - Lisette Garduno
- Northshore Neurological Institute, NorthShore University Health System, Evanston, Illinois, USA
| | - Monika Szela
- Northshore Neurological Institute, NorthShore University Health System, Evanston, Illinois, USA
| | - Roberta Frigerio
- Northshore Neurological Institute, NorthShore University Health System, Evanston, Illinois, USA
| | - Demetrius M Maraganore
- Northshore Neurological Institute, NorthShore University Health System, Evanston, Illinois, USA
| |
Collapse
|
19
|
Xu Y, Müller P, Tsimberidou AM, Berry D. A nonparametric Bayesian basket trial design. Biom J 2018; 61:1160-1174. [PMID: 29808479 DOI: 10.1002/bimj.201700162] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/10/2017] [Revised: 04/09/2018] [Accepted: 04/13/2018] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
Targeted therapies on the basis of genomic aberrations analysis of the tumor have shown promising results in cancer prognosis and treatment. Regardless of tumor type, trials that match patients to targeted therapies for their particular genomic aberrations have become a mainstream direction of therapeutic management of patients with cancer. Therefore, finding the subpopulation of patients who can most benefit from an aberration-specific targeted therapy across multiple cancer types is important. We propose an adaptive Bayesian clinical trial design for patient allocation and subpopulation identification. We start with a decision theoretic approach, including a utility function and a probability model across all possible subpopulation models. The main features of the proposed design and population finding methods are the use of a flexible nonparametric Bayesian survival regression based on a random covariate-dependent partition of patients, and decisions based on a flexible utility function that reflects the requirement of the clinicians appropriately and realistically, and the adaptive allocation of patients to their superior treatments. Through extensive simulation studies, the new method is demonstrated to achieve desirable operating characteristics and compares favorably against the alternatives.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Yanxun Xu
- Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, 21218, USA
| | - Peter Müller
- Department of Mathematics, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, 78705, USA
| | - Apostolia M Tsimberidou
- Department of Investigational Cancer Therapeutics, The University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX, 77005, USA
| | - Donald Berry
- Department of Biostatistics, The University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX, 77005, USA
| |
Collapse
|
20
|
Zhao Y, Zheng W, Zhuo DY, Lu Y, Ma X, Liu H, Zeng Z, Laird G. Bayesian additive decision trees of biomarker by treatment interactions for predictive biomarker detection and subgroup identification. J Biopharm Stat 2017; 28:534-549. [PMID: 29020511 DOI: 10.1080/10543406.2017.1372770] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/18/2022]
Abstract
Personalized medicine, or tailored therapy, has been an active and important topic in recent medical research. Many methods have been proposed in the literature for predictive biomarker detection and subgroup identification. In this article, we propose a novel decision tree-based approach applicable in randomized clinical trials. We model the prognostic effects of the biomarkers using additive regression trees and the biomarker-by-treatment effect using a single regression tree. Bayesian approach is utilized to periodically revise the split variables and the split rules of the decision trees, which provides a better overall fitting. Gibbs sampler is implemented in the MCMC procedure, which updates the prognostic trees and the interaction tree separately. We use the posterior distribution of the interaction tree to construct the predictive scores of the biomarkers and to identify the subgroup where the treatment is superior to the control. Numerical simulations show that our proposed method performs well under various settings comparing to existing methods. We also demonstrate an application of our method in a real clinical trial.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Daisy Y Zhuo
- b Operations Research Center , Massachusetts Institute of Technology , Cambridge , MA , USA
| | | | | | - Hengchang Liu
- c Department of Computer Science , University of Science and Technology of China , Suzhou , China
| | - Zhen Zeng
- d Department of Biostatistics , University of Pittsburgh , Pittsburgh , PA , USA
| | | |
Collapse
|
21
|
Ventz S, Alexander BM, Parmigiani G, Gelber RD, Trippa L. Designing Clinical Trials That Accept New Arms: An Example in Metastatic Breast Cancer. J Clin Oncol 2017; 35:3160-3168. [DOI: 10.1200/jco.2016.70.1169] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Purpose The majority of randomized oncology trials are two-arm studies that test the efficacy of new therapies against a standard of care, thereby assigning a large proportion of patients to nonexperimental therapies. In contrast, multiarm studies efficiently share a common control arm while evaluating multiple experimental therapies. A major bottleneck for traditional multiarm trials is the requirement that all therapies—often drugs from different companies—have to be available at the same time when the trial starts. We evaluate the potential gains of a platform design—the rolling-arms design—that adds and removes arms on a rolling basis. Methods We define the rolling-arms design with the goal of minimizing the complexity of random assignment and data analyses of a platform trial. We then evaluate its potential advantages in hormone receptor–positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2–negative advanced breast cancer. Multiple pharmaceutical companies currently test CDK4/6 inhibitors in combination with letrozole in independent two-arm trials. We conducted a simulation study to quantify the reduction in sample size, number of patients treated with the standard of care, and the average time to treatment discovery if these therapies had been tested in a rolling-arms trial. Results A rolling-arms platform design with two to five experimental treatments can reduce the overall sample size requirement by up to 30% compared with standard two-arm studies. It assigns up to 60% fewer patients to the control arm compared with five independent trials that test distinct treatments. Moreover, under realistic scenarios, effective experimental treatments are discovered up to 15 months earlier compared with separate two-arm trials. Conclusion The rolling-arms platform design is applicable to a broad variety of diseases, and under realistic scenarios, it is substantially more efficient than standard two-arm randomized trials.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Steffen Ventz
- Steffen Ventz, University of Rhode Island, Kingstown, RI; Brian M. Alexander, Giovanni Parmigiani, Richard D. Gelber, and Lorenzo Trippa, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute; Brian M. Alexander and Richard D. Gelber, Harvard Medical School; Giovanni Parmigiani, Richard D. Gelber, and Lorenzo Trippa, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health; Richard D. Gelber, Frontier Science Foundation, Boston, MA
| | - Brian M. Alexander
- Steffen Ventz, University of Rhode Island, Kingstown, RI; Brian M. Alexander, Giovanni Parmigiani, Richard D. Gelber, and Lorenzo Trippa, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute; Brian M. Alexander and Richard D. Gelber, Harvard Medical School; Giovanni Parmigiani, Richard D. Gelber, and Lorenzo Trippa, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health; Richard D. Gelber, Frontier Science Foundation, Boston, MA
| | - Giovanni Parmigiani
- Steffen Ventz, University of Rhode Island, Kingstown, RI; Brian M. Alexander, Giovanni Parmigiani, Richard D. Gelber, and Lorenzo Trippa, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute; Brian M. Alexander and Richard D. Gelber, Harvard Medical School; Giovanni Parmigiani, Richard D. Gelber, and Lorenzo Trippa, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health; Richard D. Gelber, Frontier Science Foundation, Boston, MA
| | - Richard D. Gelber
- Steffen Ventz, University of Rhode Island, Kingstown, RI; Brian M. Alexander, Giovanni Parmigiani, Richard D. Gelber, and Lorenzo Trippa, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute; Brian M. Alexander and Richard D. Gelber, Harvard Medical School; Giovanni Parmigiani, Richard D. Gelber, and Lorenzo Trippa, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health; Richard D. Gelber, Frontier Science Foundation, Boston, MA
| | - Lorenzo Trippa
- Steffen Ventz, University of Rhode Island, Kingstown, RI; Brian M. Alexander, Giovanni Parmigiani, Richard D. Gelber, and Lorenzo Trippa, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute; Brian M. Alexander and Richard D. Gelber, Harvard Medical School; Giovanni Parmigiani, Richard D. Gelber, and Lorenzo Trippa, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health; Richard D. Gelber, Frontier Science Foundation, Boston, MA
| |
Collapse
|
22
|
Schnell P, Tang Q, Müller P, Carlin BP. Subgroup inference for multiple treatments and multiple endpoints in an Alzheimer’s disease treatment trial. Ann Appl Stat 2017. [DOI: 10.1214/17-aoas1024] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
|
23
|
Liu J, Sivaganesan S, Laud PW, Müller P. A Bayesian subgroup analysis using collections of ANOVA models. Biom J 2017; 59:746-766. [PMID: 28319254 DOI: 10.1002/bimj.201600064] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/13/2016] [Revised: 11/29/2016] [Accepted: 01/11/2017] [Indexed: 11/12/2022]
Abstract
We develop a Bayesian approach to subgroup analysis using ANOVA models with multiple covariates, extending an earlier work. We assume a two-arm clinical trial with normally distributed response variable. We also assume that the covariates for subgroup finding are categorical and are a priori specified, and parsimonious easy-to-interpret subgroups are preferable. We represent the subgroups of interest by a collection of models and use a model selection approach to finding subgroups with heterogeneous effects. We develop suitable priors for the model space and use an objective Bayesian approach that yields multiplicity adjusted posterior probabilities for the models. We use a structured algorithm based on the posterior probabilities of the models to determine which subgroup effects to report. Frequentist operating characteristics of the approach are evaluated using simulation. While our approach is applicable in more general cases, we mainly focus on the 2 × 2 case of two covariates each at two levels for ease of presentation. The approach is illustrated using a real data example.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Jinzhong Liu
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH, 45221, USA
| | - Siva Sivaganesan
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH, 45221, USA
| | - Purushottam W Laud
- Department of Biostatistics, Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI, 53226, USA
| | - Peter Müller
- Department of Mathematics, University of Texas, Austin, TX, 78712, USA
| |
Collapse
|
24
|
Sivaganesan S, Müller P, Huang B. Subgroup finding via Bayesian additive regression trees. Stat Med 2017; 36:2391-2403. [DOI: 10.1002/sim.7276] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/19/2015] [Revised: 02/11/2017] [Accepted: 02/18/2017] [Indexed: 11/05/2022]
Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Bin Huang
- Cincinnati Children Hospital and Medical Center; Cincinnati OH U.S.A
| |
Collapse
|
25
|
Narayanan J, Dobrin S, Choi J, Rubin S, Pham A, Patel V, Frigerio R, Maurer D, Gupta P, Link L, Walters S, Wang C, Ji Y, Maraganore DM. Structured clinical documentation in the electronic medical record to improve quality and to support practice-based research in epilepsy. Epilepsia 2016; 58:68-76. [PMID: 27864833 PMCID: PMC5245120 DOI: 10.1111/epi.13607] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 10/10/2016] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
Objective Using the electronic medical record (EMR) to capture structured clinical data at the point of care would be a practical way to support quality improvement and practice‐based research in epilepsy. Methods We describe our stepwise process for building structured clinical documentation support tools in the EMR that define best practices in epilepsy, and we describe how we incorporated these toolkits into our clinical workflow. Results These tools write notes and capture hundreds of fields of data including several score tests: Generalized Anxiety Disorder‐7 items, Neurological Disorders Depression Inventory for Epilepsy, Epworth Sleepiness Scale, Quality of Life in Epilepsy–10 items, Montreal Cognitive Assessment/Short Test of Mental Status, and Medical Research Council Prognostic Index. The tools summarize brain imaging, blood laboratory, and electroencephalography results, and document neuromodulation treatments. The tools provide Best Practices Advisories and other clinical decision support when appropriate. The tools prompt enrollment in a DNA biobanking study. We have thus far enrolled 231 patients for initial visits and are starting our first annual follow‐up visits and provide a brief description of our cohort. Significance We are sharing these EMR tools and captured data with other epilepsy clinics as part of a Neurology Practice Based Research Network, and are using the tools to conduct pragmatic trials using subgroup‐based adaptive designs.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Jaishree Narayanan
- NorthShore Neurological Institute, NorthShore University HealthSystem, Evanston, Illinois, U.S.A
| | - Sofia Dobrin
- NorthShore Neurological Institute, NorthShore University HealthSystem, Evanston, Illinois, U.S.A
| | - Janet Choi
- NorthShore Neurological Institute, NorthShore University HealthSystem, Evanston, Illinois, U.S.A
| | - Susan Rubin
- NorthShore Neurological Institute, NorthShore University HealthSystem, Evanston, Illinois, U.S.A
| | - Anna Pham
- NorthShore Neurological Institute, NorthShore University HealthSystem, Evanston, Illinois, U.S.A
| | - Vimal Patel
- NorthShore Neurological Institute, NorthShore University HealthSystem, Evanston, Illinois, U.S.A
| | - Roberta Frigerio
- NorthShore Neurological Institute, NorthShore University HealthSystem, Evanston, Illinois, U.S.A
| | - Darryck Maurer
- Health Information Technology, NorthShore University HealthSystem, Evanston, Illinois, U.S.A
| | - Payal Gupta
- Health Information Technology, NorthShore University HealthSystem, Evanston, Illinois, U.S.A
| | - Lourdes Link
- Health Information Technology, NorthShore University HealthSystem, Evanston, Illinois, U.S.A
| | - Shaun Walters
- Research Institute, NorthShore University HealthSystem, Evanston, Illinois, U.S.A
| | - Chi Wang
- Research Institute, NorthShore University HealthSystem, Evanston, Illinois, U.S.A
| | - Yuan Ji
- Research Institute, NorthShore University HealthSystem, Evanston, Illinois, U.S.A
| | - Demetrius M Maraganore
- NorthShore Neurological Institute, NorthShore University HealthSystem, Evanston, Illinois, U.S.A
| |
Collapse
|
26
|
Guo W, Ji Y, Catenacci DVT. A subgroup cluster-based Bayesian adaptive design for precision medicine. Biometrics 2016; 73:367-377. [PMID: 27775814 DOI: 10.1111/biom.12613] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/01/2015] [Revised: 09/01/2016] [Accepted: 09/01/2016] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
In precision medicine, a patient is treated with targeted therapies that are predicted to be effective based on the patient's baseline characteristics such as biomarker profiles. Oftentimes, patient subgroups are unknown and must be learned through inference using observed data. We present SCUBA, a Subgroup ClUster-based Bayesian Adaptive design aiming to fulfill two simultaneous goals in a clinical trial, 1) to treatments enrich the allocation of each subgroup of patients to their precision and desirable treatments and 2) to report multiple subgroup-treatment pairs (STPs). Using random partitions and semiparametric Bayesian models, SCUBA provides coherent and probabilistic assessment of potential patient subgroups and their associated targeted therapies. Each STP can then be used for future confirmatory studies for regulatory approval. Through extensive simulation studies, we present an application of SCUBA to an innovative clinical trial in gastroesphogeal cancer.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Wentian Guo
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Yuan Ji
- Program of Computational Genomics and Medicine, Northshore University HealthSystem.,Department of Public Health Sciences, The University of Chicago, Chicago, U.S.A
| | - Daniel V T Catenacci
- Department of Medicine, Section of Hematology and Oncology.,University of Chicago Medical Center, Chicago, U.S.A
| |
Collapse
|
27
|
Lipkovich I, Dmitrienko A, B R. Tutorial in biostatistics: data-driven subgroup identification and analysis in clinical trials. Stat Med 2016; 36:136-196. [PMID: 27488683 DOI: 10.1002/sim.7064] [Citation(s) in RCA: 150] [Impact Index Per Article: 18.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/04/2015] [Revised: 06/23/2016] [Accepted: 07/05/2016] [Indexed: 02/05/2023]
Abstract
It is well known that both the direction and magnitude of the treatment effect in clinical trials are often affected by baseline patient characteristics (generally referred to as biomarkers). Characterization of treatment effect heterogeneity plays a central role in the field of personalized medicine and facilitates the development of tailored therapies. This tutorial focuses on a general class of problems arising in data-driven subgroup analysis, namely, identification of biomarkers with strong predictive properties and patient subgroups with desirable characteristics such as improved benefit and/or safety. Limitations of ad-hoc approaches to biomarker exploration and subgroup identification in clinical trials are discussed, and the ad-hoc approaches are contrasted with principled approaches to exploratory subgroup analysis based on recent advances in machine learning and data mining. A general framework for evaluating predictive biomarkers and identification of associated subgroups is introduced. The tutorial provides a review of a broad class of statistical methods used in subgroup discovery, including global outcome modeling methods, global treatment effect modeling methods, optimal treatment regimes, and local modeling methods. Commonly used subgroup identification methods are illustrated using two case studies based on clinical trials with binary and survival endpoints. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Ralph B
- Boston University, Boston, MA, U.S.A
| |
Collapse
|
28
|
Schnell PM, Tang Q, Offen WW, Carlin BP. A Bayesian credible subgroups approach to identifying patient subgroups with positive treatment effects. Biometrics 2016; 72:1026-1036. [PMID: 27159131 DOI: 10.1111/biom.12522] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/01/2015] [Revised: 02/01/2016] [Accepted: 02/01/2016] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
Many new experimental treatments benefit only a subset of the population. Identifying the baseline covariate profiles of patients who benefit from such a treatment, rather than determining whether or not the treatment has a population-level effect, can substantially lessen the risk in undertaking a clinical trial and expose fewer patients to treatments that do not benefit them. The standard analyses for identifying patient subgroups that benefit from an experimental treatment either do not account for multiplicity, or focus on testing for the presence of treatment-covariate interactions rather than the resulting individualized treatment effects. We propose a Bayesian credible subgroups method to identify two bounding subgroups for the benefiting subgroup: one for which it is likely that all members simultaneously have a treatment effect exceeding a specified threshold, and another for which it is likely that no members do. We examine frequentist properties of the credible subgroups method via simulations and illustrate the approach using data from an Alzheimer's disease treatment trial. We conclude with a discussion of the advantages and limitations of this approach to identifying patients for whom the treatment is beneficial.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Patrick M Schnell
- Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota School of Public Health, Minneapolis, Minnesota, U.S.A
| | - Qi Tang
- AbbVie, North Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A
| | | | - Bradley P Carlin
- Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota School of Public Health, Minneapolis, Minnesota, U.S.A
| |
Collapse
|
29
|
Ondra T, Dmitrienko A, Friede T, Graf A, Miller F, Stallard N, Posch M. Methods for identification and confirmation of targeted subgroups in clinical trials: A systematic review. J Biopharm Stat 2016; 26:99-119. [PMID: 26378339 PMCID: PMC4732423 DOI: 10.1080/10543406.2015.1092034] [Citation(s) in RCA: 73] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/14/2015] [Accepted: 08/14/2015] [Indexed: 12/30/2022]
Abstract
Important objectives in the development of stratified medicines include the identification and confirmation of subgroups of patients with a beneficial treatment effect and a positive benefit-risk balance. We report the results of a literature review on methodological approaches to the design and analysis of clinical trials investigating a potential heterogeneity of treatment effects across subgroups. The identified approaches are classified based on certain characteristics of the proposed trial designs and analysis methods. We distinguish between exploratory and confirmatory subgroup analysis, frequentist, Bayesian and decision-theoretic approaches and, last, fixed-sample, group-sequential, and adaptive designs and illustrate the available trial designs and analysis strategies with published case studies.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Thomas Ondra
- Center for Medical Statistics and Informatics, Medizinische Universität Wien, Vienna, Austria
| | - Alex Dmitrienko
- Center for Statistics in Drug Development, Quintiles, Overland Park, Kansas, USA
| | - Tim Friede
- Department of Medical Statistics, Universitaetsmedizin, Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
| | - Alexandra Graf
- Center for Medical Statistics and Informatics, Medizinische Universität Wien, Vienna, Austria
| | - Frank Miller
- Statistiska institutionen, Stockholms Universitet, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Nigel Stallard
- Department of Statistics and Epidemiology, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK
| | - Martin Posch
- Center for Medical Statistics and Informatics, Medizinische Universität Wien, Vienna, Austria
| |
Collapse
|
30
|
Maraganore DM, Frigerio R, Kazmi N, Meyers SL, Sefa M, Walters SA, Silverstein JC. Quality improvement and practice-based research in neurology using the electronic medical record. Neurol Clin Pract 2015; 5:419-429. [PMID: 26576324 PMCID: PMC4634157 DOI: 10.1212/cpj.0000000000000176] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
We describe quality improvement and practice-based research using the electronic medical record (EMR) in a community health system-based department of neurology. Our care transformation initiative targets 10 neurologic disorders (brain tumors, epilepsy, migraine, memory disorders, mild traumatic brain injury, multiple sclerosis, neuropathy, Parkinson disease, restless legs syndrome, and stroke) and brain health (risk assessments and interventions to prevent Alzheimer disease and related disorders in targeted populations). Our informatics methods include building and implementing structured clinical documentation support tools in the EMR; electronic data capture; enrollment, data quality, and descriptive reports; quality improvement projects; clinical decision support tools; subgroup-based adaptive assignments and pragmatic trials; and DNA biobanking. We are sharing EMR tools and deidentified data with other departments toward the creation of a Neurology Practice-Based Research Network. We discuss practical points to assist other clinical practices to make quality improvements and practice-based research in neurology using the EMR a reality.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Demetrius M Maraganore
- Departments of Neurology (DMM, RF, NK, SLM) and Health Information Technology (MS) and Center for Biomedical Research Informatics (SAW, JCS), NorthShore University HealthSystem, Evanston, IL
| | - Roberta Frigerio
- Departments of Neurology (DMM, RF, NK, SLM) and Health Information Technology (MS) and Center for Biomedical Research Informatics (SAW, JCS), NorthShore University HealthSystem, Evanston, IL
| | - Nazia Kazmi
- Departments of Neurology (DMM, RF, NK, SLM) and Health Information Technology (MS) and Center for Biomedical Research Informatics (SAW, JCS), NorthShore University HealthSystem, Evanston, IL
| | - Steven L Meyers
- Departments of Neurology (DMM, RF, NK, SLM) and Health Information Technology (MS) and Center for Biomedical Research Informatics (SAW, JCS), NorthShore University HealthSystem, Evanston, IL
| | - Meredith Sefa
- Departments of Neurology (DMM, RF, NK, SLM) and Health Information Technology (MS) and Center for Biomedical Research Informatics (SAW, JCS), NorthShore University HealthSystem, Evanston, IL
| | - Shaun A Walters
- Departments of Neurology (DMM, RF, NK, SLM) and Health Information Technology (MS) and Center for Biomedical Research Informatics (SAW, JCS), NorthShore University HealthSystem, Evanston, IL
| | - Jonathan C Silverstein
- Departments of Neurology (DMM, RF, NK, SLM) and Health Information Technology (MS) and Center for Biomedical Research Informatics (SAW, JCS), NorthShore University HealthSystem, Evanston, IL
| |
Collapse
|