ACS NSQIP risk calculator reliability in head and neck oncology: The effect of prior chemoradiation on NSQIP risk estimates following laryngectomy

Enhanced Recovery After Surgery for Head and Neck Oncologic Surgery Requiring Microvascular Reconstruction

It has been demonstrated since the 1990's that surgical outcomes can be improved through protocolized perioperative interventions. Since then, multiple surgical societies have engaged in adopting Enhanced Recovery After Surgery (ERAS) Societal recommendations to improve patient satisfaction, decrease the cost of interventions, and improve outcomes. In 2017, ERAS released consensus recommendations detailing the perioperative optimization of patients undergoing head and neck free flap reconstruction. This population was identified as a high resource demand, oftentimes burdened with challenging comorbidity, and poorly described cohort for which a perioperative management protocol could help to optimize outcomes. The following pages aim to further detail perioperative strategies to streamline patient recovery after head and neck reconstructive surgery.

Validation of a risk prediction calculator in Australian patients undergoing head and neck microsurgery reconstruction

BACKGROUND

The American College of Surgeons (ACS) National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) surgical risk calculator (SRC) is an open access calculator predicting patients' risk of postoperative complications. This study aims to assess the validity of the SRC in patients undergoing microsurgical free flap reconstruction at an Australian tertiary referral centre.

METHODS

This is a retrospective cohort study of 200 consecutive patients treated up to November 2020. SRC-predicted rates of postoperative complications and hospital length of stay (LOS) were compared to those observed for the ablative and reconstructive components of the procedure. The performance of the SRC was assessed using Brier scores, area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test.

RESULTS

For both ablative and reconstructive components, the SRC discriminates well for pneumonia and urinary tract infection, and it is calibrated well for readmission and sepsis, but it does not discriminate and calibrate well for any single outcome. SRC-predicted hospital LOS and actual LOS did not correlate well for the reconstructive component, but they correlated strongly for the ablative component.

CONCLUSIONS

The SRC is a poor predictor of postoperative complication rates and hospital LOS in patients undergoing head and neck microsurgical reconstruction.

Predictive validity of American College of Surgeons: National Surgical Quality Improvement Project risk calculator in patients with ovarian cancer undergoing interval debulking surgery

INTRODUCTION

In gynecologic patients, few studies describe the accuracy of the American College of Surgeons-National Surgical Quality Improvement Project (ACS-NSQIP) pre-operative risk calculator for women undergoing surgery for ovarian cancer.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether the ACS-NSQIP risk calculator accurately predicts post-operative complications and length of stay in patients undergoing interval debulking surgery for advanced stage epithelial ovarian cancer.

METHODS

For this multi-institutional retrospective cohort study, pre-operative risk factors, post-operative complication rates, and Current Procedural Terminology codes were abstracted from records of patients with ovarian cancer managed with open interval debulking surgery from January 2010 to July 2015. A power calculation was done to estimate the minimum number of complications needed to evaluate the accuracy of the ACS-NSQIP risk calculator. Predicted risk compared with observed risk was calculated using logistic regression. The predictive accuracy of the ACS-NSQIP risk calculator in estimating post-operative complications or length of stay was assessed using c-statistics and Briar scores. Complications with a c-statistic of >0.70 and Brier score of <0.01 were considered to have high discriminative ability.

RESULTS

A total of 261 patients underwent interval debulking surgery, encompassing 21 unique Current Procedural Terminology codes. Readmission (n=25), surgical site infection (n=35), urinary tract infection (n=12), and serious post-operative complications (n=57) met the minimum event threshold (n>10). All predicted complication rates fell within the IQR of the observed incidence rates. However, the ACS-NSQIP calculator demonstrated neither discriminative ability nor accuracy for any post-operative complications based on c-statistics and Brier scores. The calculator accurately predicted length of stay within 1 day for only 32% of patients and could not accurately predict which patients were likely to have a prolonged length of stay (c-statistic=0.65).

CONCLUSION

Among patients undergoing interval debulking surgery, the ACS-NSQIP did not accurately discriminate which patients were at increased risk of complications or extended length of stay. The risk calculator should be considered to have limited utility in informing pre-operative counseling or surgical planning.

Risk-adjustment models in patients undergoing head and neck surgery with reconstruction

BACKGROUND

With the current focus on value-based outcomes and reimbursement models, perioperative risk adjustment is essential. Specialty surgical outcomes are not well predicted by the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP); the Head and Neck-Reconstructive Surgery NSQIP was created as a specialty-specific platform for patients undergoing head and neck surgery with flap reconstruction. This study aims to investigate risk prediction models in these patients.

METHODS

The Head and Neck-Reconstructive Surgery NSQIP collected data on patients undergoing head and neck surgery with flap reconstruction from August 1, 2012 to October 20, 2016. Multivariable logistic regression models were created for 9 outcomes (postoperative ventilator dependence, pneumonia, superficial recipient surgical site infection, presence of tracheostomy/nasoenteric (NE)/gastrostomy/gastrojejunostomy(G/GJ) tube 30 days postoperatively, conversion from NE to G/GJ tube, unplanned return to the operating room, length of stay > 7 days). External validation was completed with a more contemporary cohort.

RESULTS

A total of 1095 patients were included in the modelling cohort and 407 in the validation cohort. Models performed well predicting tracheostomy, NE, G/GJ tube presence at 30 days postoperatively and conversion from NE to G/GJ tube (c-indices = 0.75-0.91). Models for postoperative pneumonia, superficial recipient surgical site infection, ventilator dependence > 48 h, and length of stay > 7 days were fair (concordance [c]-indices = 0.63-0.69). The predictive model for unplanned return to the operating room was poor (c-index = 0.58).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Reliable and discriminant risk prediction models were able to be created for postoperative outcomes using the specialty-specific Head and Neck-Reconstructive Surgery Specific NSQIP.