Accuracy of Kidney Failure Risk Equation in Transplant Recipients

Challenges in the Management of the Patient with a Failing Kidney Graft: A Narrative Review

Patients with a failed kidney allograft have steadily increase in recent years and returning to dialysis after graft loss is one of the most difficult transitions for chronic kidney disease patients and their assistant physicians. The management of these patients is complex and encompasses the treatment of chronic kidney disease complications, dialysis restart and access planning, immunosuppression withdrawal, graft nephrectomy, and evaluation for a potential retransplant. In recent years, several groups have focused on the management of the patient with a failing renal graft and expert recommendations are arising. A review of Pubmed, ScienceDirect and the Cochrane Library was performed focusing on the specific care of these patients, from the management of low clearance complications to concerns with a subsequent kidney transplant. Conclusion: There is a growing interest in the failing renal graft and new approaches to improve these patients’ outcomes are being defined including specific multidisciplinary programs, individualized immunosuppression withdrawal schemes, and strategies to prevent HLA sensitization and increase retransplant rates.

Managing Patients with Failing Kidney Allograft: Many Questions Remain

Patients who receive a kidney transplant commonly experience failure of their allograft. Transplant failure often comes with complex management decisions, such as when and how to wean immunosuppression and start the transition to a second transplant or to dialysis. These decisions are made in the context of important concerns about competing risks, including sensitization and infection. Unfortunately, the management of the failed allograft is, at present, guided by relatively poor-quality data and, as a result, practice patterns are variable and suboptimal given that patients with failed allografts experience excess morbidity and mortality compared with their transplant-naive counterparts. In this review, we summarize the management strategies through the often-precarious transition from transplant to dialysis, highlighting the paucity of data and the critical gaps in our knowledge that are necessary to inform the optimal care of the patient with a failing kidney transplant.

The Effect of Age on Performance of the Kidney Failure Risk Equation in Advanced CKD

Introduction

The Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE) is a clinical tool widely used to predict progression from chronic kidney disease (CKD) to kidney failure. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of age on KFRE performance in advanced CKD.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study among 1701 consecutive patients referred to an advanced CKD clinic in Ottawa, Canada, between 2010 and 2018. Patients were categorized by age as follows: <60, 60 to 69, 70 to 79, and ≥80 years. Calibration plots compared the predicted (through the KFRE) and observed incidence of kidney failure. Concordance statistic (C-statistic) evaluated discrimination. Cumulative incidence of kidney failure was compared between models that accounted for the competing risk of death and those that did not.

Results

We found that the KFRE overestimated the risk of kidney failure among the oldest subset of patients (≥80 years) with absolute and relative differences of 7.6% and 22.8%, respectively, over 2 years (P = 0.047), and 24.7% and 40.4%, respectively, over 5 years (P < 0.001). The degree of overestimation in the elderly was most pronounced among those with the highest predicted risks for kidney failure. KFRE discrimination was acceptable (C-statistic 0.70–0.79) across all age categories. The cumulative incidence of kidney failure was overestimated in models that did not account for the competing risk of death, and this overestimation was more pronounced with older age.

Conclusion

The KFRE overestimates kidney failure risk among elderly patients with advanced CKD. This overestimation relates to the increasing competing risk of death with older age, particularly over longer time horizons.

Retinopathy and Risk of Kidney Disease in Persons With Diabetes

Rationale & Objective

Retinopathy and chronic kidney disease (CKD) are typically considered microvascular complications of diabetes, and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases are considered macrovascular complications; however, all may share common pathological mechanisms. This study quantified the association of retinopathy with risk of kidney disease and compared with the association with cardiovascular disease in persons with diabetes.

Study Design

Retrospective cohort study.

Setting & Participants

1,759 participants in the ARIC study who had diabetes at visit 4 and underwent retinal examination at visit 3.

Exposure

Retinopathy.

Outcome

Prevalent CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] < 60 mL/min/1.73 m²), prevalent albuminuria (urinary albumin-creatinine ratio [UACR] > 30 mg/g), incident CKD, incident end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), incident coronary heart disease (CHD), and incident stroke.

Analytical Approach

The cross-sectional association of retinopathy with prevalent CKD and albuminuria was assessed by logistic regression. The associations between retinopathy, incident CKD, incident ESKD, incident CHD, and incident stroke were examined using Cox proportional hazards models. Seemingly unrelated regression was used to compare the strength of association between retinopathy and outcomes.

Results

During the median follow-up period of 14.2 years, 723 participants developed CKD, and there were 109 ESKD events, 399 CHD events, and 196 stroke events. Compared with the participants without retinopathy, participants with retinopathy were more likely to have reduced eGFR (OR, 1.56 [95% CI, 1.09-2.23]) and UACR > 30 mg/g (OR, 1.61 [95% CI, 1.24-2.10]). Retinopathy was associated with risk of incident CKD (HR, 1.22 [95% CI, 1.02-1.46]), ESKD (HR, 1.69 [95% CI, 1.11-2.58]), CHD (HR, 1.46 [95% CI, 1.15-1.84]), and stroke (HR, 1.43 [95% CI, 1.03-1.97]). A stronger relationship was found between retinopathy and CHD when compared with retinopathy and CKD (P = 0.03); all other associations were similar.

Limitations

Retinal examination and kidney measurements were taken at different visits.

Conclusions

The presence of retinopathy was associated with higher prevalence of kidney disease and higher risk of incident CKD, ESKD, and CHD. These results may suggest that a similar mechanism underlies the development of retinopathy and other adverse outcomes in diabetes.

Impact of Using Risk-Based Stratification on Referral of Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease From Primary Care to Specialist Care in the United Kingdom

Introduction

The externally validated Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE) for predicting risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) has been developed, but its potential impact in a population on referrals for patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) from primary to specialty nephrology care is not known.

Methods

A cross-sectional population-based study of individuals in United Kingdom primary care registered in The Health Improvement Network database was conducted. National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE) 2014 CKD guidelines versus the 4-variable KFRE set at a >3% risk of ESRD at 5 years were applied to patients identified with CKD stage 3-5 between January 1, 2016, and March 31, 2017.

Results

In all, 39,476 (36.6%) of 107,962 adults with CKD stage 3-5 had a urine albumin:creatinine ratio (ACR) available and entered into the primary analysis. Of that, 7566 (19.2%) patients fulfilled NICE criteria for referral, 2386 (31.5%) of whom had a ≤3% 5-year risk of ESRD. Also 8663 (21.9%) patients had a >3% 5-year risk of ESRD, 3483 (40.2%) of whom did not fulfill NICE criteria; this represents 8.8% of the primary population. By using the KFRE threshold rather than NICE criteria for referral, 5869 patients (14.9% of the primary analysis population) would have been reallocated between primary and specialist care. Imputational analysis was used for missing ACR measurements and showed similar results.

Conclusions

A risk-based referral approach would lead to a substantial reallocation of patients between primary care and specialist nephrology care with only a small increase in numbers eligible, ensuring those at higher risk of progression are identified.

Albuminuria, proteinuria, and dipsticks: novel relationships and utility in risk prediction

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Albuminuria is associated with progression of kidney disease and is the accepted gold standard for screening, staging, and prognostication of chronic kidney disease. This review focuses on current literature that has explored applications of albuminuria as a surrogate outcome, variable used in kidney failure risk prediction for novel populations, and variable that may be predicted by other proteinuria measures.

RECENT FINDINGS

Change in albuminuria shows promise as a surrogate outcome for kidney failure, which may have major implications for trial design and conduct. The kidney failure risk equation (KFRE) has been validated extensively to date and has now been applied to pediatric patients with kidney disease, advanced age, different causes of kidney disease, various countries, and those with prior kidney transplants. As albumin-to-creatinine ratios (ACRs) are not always available to clinicians and researchers, two recent studies have independently developed equations to estimate ACR from other proteinuria measures.

SUMMARY

The utility of albuminuria and the KFRE continues to grow in novel populations. With the ability to convert more widely available (and inexpensive) proteinuria measures to ACR estimates, the prospect of incorporating kidney failure risk prediction into routine care within economically challenged healthcare jurisdictions may finally be realized.

A validation study of the 4-variable and 8-variable kidney failure risk equation in transplant recipients in the United Kingdom

Background

There is emerging evidence that the 4-variable Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE) can be used for risk prediction of graft failure in transplant recipients. However, geographical validation of the 4-variable KFRE in transplant patients is lacking, as is whether the more extensive 8-variable KFRE improves predictive accuracy. This study aimed to validate the 4- and 8-variable KFRE predictions of the 5-year death-censored risk of graft failure in patients in the United Kingdom.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study involved 415 transplant recipients who had their first renal transplant between 2003 and 2015 and were under follow-up at Salford Royal NHS Foundation Trust. The KFRE risk scores were calculated on variables taken 1-year post-transplant. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) and calibration plots were evaluated to determine discrimination and calibration of the 4- and 8-variable KFREs in the whole cohort as well as in a subgroup analysis of living and deceased donor recipients and in patients with an eGFR< 45 ml/min/1.73m².

Results

There were 16 graft failure events (4%) in the whole cohort. The 4- and 8-variable KFREs showed good discrimination with AUC of 0.743 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.610–0.876) and 0.751 (95% CI 0.629–0.872) respectively. In patients with an eGFR< 45 ml/min/1.73m², the 8-variable KFRE had good discrimination with an AUC of 0.785 (95% CI 0.558–0.982) but the 4-variable provided excellent discrimination in this group with an AUC of 0.817 (0.646–0.988). Calibration plots however showed poor calibration with risk scores tending to underestimate risk of graft failure in low-risk patients and overestimate risk in high-risk patients, which was seen in the primary and subgroup analyses.

Conclusions

Despite adequate discrimination, the 4- and 8-variable KFREs are imprecise in predicting graft failure in transplant recipients using data 1-year post-transplant. Larger, international studies involving diverse patient populations should be considered to corroborate these findings.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12882-021-02259-4.

The Kidney Failure Risk Equation for Prediction of Allograft Loss in Kidney Transplant Recipients

Rationale & Objective

The Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE) is a simple widely validated prediction model using age, sex, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and urinary albumin-creatinine ratio to predict the risk for end-stage kidney disease. Data are limited for its applicability to kidney transplant recipients.

Study Design

Validation study of the KFRE as a post hoc analysis of the Folic Acid for Vascular Outcomes Reduction in Transplantation (FAVORIT) Trial.

Setting & Participants

Adult kidney transplant recipients with functioning kidney allografts at least 6 months posttransplantation from 30 centers in the United States, Canada, and Brazil. Participants with estimated glomerular filtration rates < 60 mL/min/1.73 m² at study entry were included.

Predictor

2- and 5-year kidney failure risk predicted by the KFRE using variables at study entry.

Outcome

Graft loss, defined by initiation of dialysis.

Analytical Approach

Discrimination of the KFRE was assessed using C statistics; calibration was assessed by plotting predicted risk against observed cumulative incidence of graft loss.

Results

2,889 participants were included. Within 2 years, 98 participants developed graft loss, 107 participants died with a functioning graft, and 129 participants were lost to follow-up, and by 5 years, 252 had developed graft loss, 265 died with a functioning graft, and 1,543 were lost to follow-up. The KFRE demonstrated accurate calibration and discrimination (C statistic, 0.85 [95% CI, 0.81-0.88] at 2 years and 0.81 [95% CI, 0.78-0.84] at 5 years); performance was similar regardless of donor type (living vs deceased) and graft vintage, with the noted exception of poorer calibration for graft vintage less than 2 years.

Limitations

Unavailable cause of graft loss.

Conclusions

The KFRE accurately predicted the risk for graft loss among adult kidney transplant recipients with graft vintage longer than 2 years and may be a useful prognostic tool for nephrologists caring for kidney transplant recipients.

Prediction of Progression in Polycystic Kidney Disease Using the Kidney Failure Risk Equation and Ultrasound Parameters

Background

The kidney failure risk equation (KFRE) is a validated risk algorithm for predicting the risk of kidney failure in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients regardless of etiology. Patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (AD-PCKD) experience long disease trajectories and as such identifying individuals at risk of kidney failure would aid in intervention.

Objective

To examine the utility of the KFRE in predicting adverse kidney outcomes compared with existing risk factors in a cohort of patients with AD-PCKD.

Methods

Retrospective cohort study of AD-PCKD patients referred to a tertiary care center with a baseline kidney ultrasound and a KFRE calculation. Cox proportional hazards were used to examine the association of the KFRE and composite of an eGFR decline of >30% or the need for dialysis/transplantation. Discrimination and calibration of a parsimonious fully adjusted model and a model containing only total kidney volume (TKV) with and without the addition of the KFRE was determined.

Results

Of 340 patients with AD-PCKD eligible, 221 (65%) met inclusion criteria. Older age, cardiac disease, cancer, higher systolic blood pressure, albuminuria, lower eGFR and a higher initial TKV were more common in patients with a higher KFRE. A total of 120 events occurred over a median patient follow-up time of 3.2 years. KFRE was independently associated with the composite kidney outcome. Addition of the KFRE significantly improved discrimination and calibration in a TKV only model and a fully adjusted model.

Conclusions

In a diverse, referral population with AD-PCKD, the KFRE was associated with adverse kidney outcomes and improved risk prediction.