Prediction of Extravesical Disease by Preoperative Serum Markers in Patients With Clinically Organ Confined Invasive Bladder Cancer

CA125 for the Diagnosis of Advanced Urothelial Carcinoma of the Bladder: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Urothelial carcinoma of the bladder (UCB) is the second most common genitourinary cancer. This study aims to assess the diagnostic accuracy of CA125 in advanced UCB.

METHODS

We searched prevalent studies in PubMed, the Cochrane Library, Scopus, Embase, the Web of Science China National Knowledge Infrastructure database, and Wanfang data before October 2022. Pooled sensitivity, specificity, and summary receiver operating characteristics were used to assess the diagnostic value of CA125.

RESULTS

One thousand six hundred forty-one patients from 14 studies were analyzed. UCB stage T3-4N1 was defined as advanced UCB in ten studies; T2-4 was used in three studies; and N1M1 in one study. Patients' age was between 21 to 92, and 21% to 48.6% of patients were female. The pooled sensitivity was 0.695 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.426-0.875). The pooled specificity was 0.846 (95% CI: 0.713-0.924). The diagnostic odds ratio was 8.138 (95% CI: 4.559-14.526). The AUC was 0.797.

CONCLUSION

CA125 may provide significant diagnostic accuracy in identifying muscle-invasive, lymph node-involved, and distant metastatic tumors in patients with urothelial carcinoma of the bladder. Limited studies have been conducted on the prognostic role of CA125. More studies are needed for a meta-analysis on the prognostic role of CA125 in UCB.

Association between precystectomy epithelial tumor marker response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy and oncological outcomes in urothelial bladder cancer

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

We previously reported that elevated precystectomy serum levels of epithelial tumor markers predict worse oncological outcome in patients with invasive bladder cancer (BC). Herein, we evaluated the effect of neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) on elevated tumor marker levels and their association with oncological outcomes.

METHODS

Under IRB approval, serum levels of Carbohydrate Antigen 125 (CA-125), Carbohydrate Antigen 19-9 (CA 19-9) and Carcinoembryonic Antigen (CEA) were prospectively measured in 480 patients with invasive BC from August 2011 through December 2016. In the subgroup undergoing NAC, markers were measured prior to the first and after the last cycle of chemotherapy (prior to cystectomy).

RESULTS

Three hundred and thirty-seven patients were eligible for the study, with a median age was 71 years (range 34-93) and 81% (272) male. Elevated precystectomy level of any tumor markers (31% of patients) was independently associated with worse recurrence-free survival (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.81; P < 0.001) and overall survival (HR = 3.97; P < 0.001). One hundred and twenty-five (37%) patients underwent NAC, of whom 59 had a complete tumor marker profile and 30 (51%) had an elevated pre-NAC tumor marker. Following completion of chemotherapy, 10/30 (33%) patients normalized their tumor markers, while 20/30 (67%) had one or more persistently elevated markers. There was no difference in clinical or pathological stage between groups (P = 0.54 and P = 0.09, respectively). Further analysis showed a significantly lower rate and longer median time to recurrence/progression in the responder group (50% in responders vs. 90% in nonresponders at a median time of 22 vs. 4.8 months, respectively; P = 0.015). There was also significant difference in mortality rates and median overall survival between the study groups (30% in responders vs. 70% in nonresponders at a median time of 27.3 vs. 11.6 months respectively; P = 0.037). Two of the three patients that died in the normalized tumor marker group had tumor marker relapse at recurrence prior to their death.

CONCLUSIONS

To our knowledge, this is the first study showing tumor marker response to NAC. Patients with persistently elevated markers following NAC have a very poor prognosis following cystectomy, which may help identifying chemotherapy-resistant tumors. A larger, controlled study with longer follow up is needed to determine their role in predicting survival.

[Validation of pre-cystectomy nomograms for the prediction of locally advanced urothelial bladder cancer in a multicentre study: are we able to adequately predict locally advanced tumour stages before surgery?]

OBJECTIVE

Pre-cystectomy nomograms with a high predictive ability for locally advanced urothelial carcinomas of the bladder would enhance individual treatment tailoring and patient counselling. To date, there are two currently not externally validated nomograms for prediction of the tumour stages pT3-4 or lymph node involvement.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data from a German multicentre cystectomy series comprising 2,477 patients with urothelial carcinoma of the bladder were applied for the validation of two US nomograms, which were originally based on the data of 726 patients (nomogram 1: prediction of pT3-4 tumours, nomogram 2: prediction of lymph node involvement). Multivariate regression models assessed the value of clinical parameters integrated in both nomograms, i.e. age, gender, cT stage, TURB grade and associated Tis. Discriminative abilities of both nomograms were assessed by ROC analyses; calibration facilitated a comparison of the predicted probability and the actual incidence of locally advanced tumour stages.

RESULTS

Of the patients, 44.5 and 25.8% demonstrated tumour stages pT3-4 and pN+, respectively. If only one case of a previously not known locally advanced carcinoma (pT3-4 and/or pN+) is considered as a staging error, the rate of understaging was 48.9% (n=1211). The predictive accuracies of the validated nomograms were 67.5 and 54.5%, respectively. The mean probabilities of pT3-4 tumours and lymph node involvement predicted by application of these nomograms were 36.7% (actual frequency 44.5%) and 20.2% (actual frequency 25.8%), respectively. Both nomograms underestimated the real incidence of locally advanced tumours.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study demonstrates that prediction of locally advanced urothelial carcinomas of the bladder by both validated nomograms is not conferrable to patients of the present German cystectomy series. Hence, there is still a need for statistical models with enhanced predictive accuracy.

The impact of biomarkers in multivariate algorithms for bladder cancer diagnosis in patients with hematuria

BACKGROUND

We appraised 23 biomarkers previously associated with urothelial cancer in a case-control study. Our aim was to determine whether single biomarkers and/or multivariate algorithms significantly improved on the predictive power of an algorithm based on demographics for prediction of urothelial cancer in patients presenting with hematuria.

METHODS

Twenty-two biomarkers in urine and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) in serum were evaluated using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) and biochip array technology in 2 patient cohorts: 80 patients with urothelial cancer, and 77 controls with confounding pathologies. We used Forward Wald binary logistic regression analyses to create algorithms based on demographic variables designated prior predicted probability (PPP) and multivariate algorithms, which included PPP as a single variable. Areas under the curve (AUC) were determined after receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) analysis for single biomarkers and algorithms.

RESULTS

After univariate analysis, 9 biomarkers were differentially expressed (t test; P < .05). CEA AUC 0.74; bladder tumor antigen (BTA) AUC 0.74; and nuclear matrix protein (NMP22) 0.79. PPP included age and smoking years; AUC 0.76. An algorithm including PPP, NMP22, and epidermal growth factor (EGF) significantly improved AUC to 0.90 when compared with PPP. The algorithm including PPP, BTA, CEA, and thrombomodulin (TM) increased AUC to 0.86. Sensitivities = 91%, 91%; and specificities = 80%, 71%, respectively, for the algorithms.

CONCLUSIONS

Addition of biomarkers representing diverse carcinogenic pathways can significantly impact on the ROC statistic based on demographics. Benign prostate hyperplasia was a significant confounding pathology and identification of nonmuscle invasive urothelial cancer remains a challenge.

A novel algorithm to improve pathologic stage prediction of clinically organ-confined muscle-invasive bladder cancer

BACKGROUND

An algorithm was created to predict pathologic stage in patients with clinically organ-confined muscle-invasive bladder cancer.

METHODS

The sample consisted of 133 consecutive patients scheduled to undergo cystectomy. To develop a tool to predict nonorgan-confined disease before surgery, principal component analysis (PCA) was applied. Patients were stratified into a training set (n = 89) and a validation set (n = 44), and 7 parameters were evaluated: levels of carcinoembryonic antigen, cancer antigen (CA) 125, and carbohydrate antigen (CA) 19-9; clinical stage; presence of hydronephrosis; presence of carcinoma in situ; and initial tumor size >3 cm. PCA was applied to the training set to determine the weight of each parameter. A PCA score was generated for each patient in the set, and a cutoff defining nonorgan-confined disease was established. The accuracy of the cutoff was quantified by the area under the receiver operator characteristics curve (AUC). The model was then applied to the validation set without recalculation; the AUC and the positive and negative predictive values of the validation set were calculated.

RESULTS

On pathologic evaluation, 71 patients (53%) were found to have organ-confined tumors and 62 patients (47%) had extravesical disease. The AUC was 0.85 in the training group (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.71-0.97) and 0.84 in the validation group (95% CI, 0.75-0.93). The positive and negative predictive values in the validation group were 88% (95% CI, 71%-96%) and 94% (95% CI, 71%-99%), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The newly devised, internally validated, algorithm was 85% accurate in predicting nonorgan-confined bladder disease before cystectomy. Further external validation in a large cohort was recommended as still necessary.

The use and abuse of data: nomograms and talking to patients about clinical medicine

OBJECTIVE

To review the development of nomograms and consortia efforts applying these tools to model outcome predictions associated with radical cystectomy.

FINDINGS

Nomograms have been developed that provide individualized prediction of recurrence and survival following radical cystectomy, which provide significant improvement in predictive accuracy over tradition TNM staging.

CONCLUSIONS

Nomograms provide individualized risk assessment and outperform expert physician and conventional models used to predict outcome. Addition of biologic markers may improve predictive capability and improve the clinical utility of these valuable tools.