Estimating age-related incidence of HBsAg seroclearance in chronic hepatitis B virus infections of China by using a dynamic compartmental model

Assessing the impact of comorbid type 2 diabetes mellitus on the disease burden of chronic hepatitis B virus infection and its complications in China from 2006 to 2030: a modeling study

BACKGROUND

China bears a high burden of both hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). T2DM accelerates the progression of liver disease among individuals infected with HBV. This study aims to assess the excess disease burden caused by comorbid T2DM among HBV-infected individuals in China.

METHODS

We estimated the disease burden of HBV and its complications in China from 2006 to 2030 using individual-based Markov models. The baseline population consisted of 93 million HBV-infected individuals derived from the 2006 National Serological Epidemiological Survey. We developed two models: one incorporated the impact of T2DM on the disease progression of HBV infection, while the other did not consider the impact of T2DM. By comparing the outcomes between these two models, we estimated the excess disease burden attributable to comorbid T2DM among HBV-infected individuals.

RESULTS

The incidence of severe HBV complications, including cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and liver-related deaths, exhibited an increasing trend from 2006 to 2030 among the Chinese HBV-infected population. Comorbid T2DM increased the annual incidence and cumulative cases of severe HBV complications. From 2006 to 2022, comorbid T2DM caused 791,000 (11.41%), 244,000 (9.27%), 377,000 (8.78%), and 796,000 (12.19%) excess cases of compensated cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis, HCC, and liver-related deaths, respectively. From 2023 to 2030, comorbid T2DM is projected to result in an 8.69% excess in severe HBV complications and an 8.95% increase in liver-related deaths. Among individuals aged 60 and older at baseline, comorbid T2DM led to a 21.68% excess in severe HBV complications and a 28.70% increase in liver-related deaths from 2006 to 2022, with projections indicating a further 20.76% increase in severe HBV complications and an 18.31% rise in liver-related deaths over the next seven years.

CONCLUSIONS

Comorbid T2DM imposes a substantial disease burden on individuals with HBV infection in China. Healthcare providers and health policymakers should develop and implement tailored strategies for the effective management and control of T2DM in individuals with HBV infection.

Vaccination and risky behaviors: evidence from the hepatitis B vaccination campaign in China

Understanding the causal relationship between vaccination and individuals' risky behavioral responses has important policy implications as it affects the ultimate effectiveness of increasing access to vaccination. This paper examines the causal effects of vaccination on risky behaviors by exploring the 1992 hepatitis B vaccination campaign in China. Our empirical strategy exploits variations in age at the campaign as well as the pretreatment infection risks across provinces. Using a large cross-section of individuals born between 1981 and 1994, we find that more exposure to the hepatitis B vaccination leads to lower alcohol use during adulthood, and such impacts are almost entirely driven by men. Individuals from more educated families and people who live in urban areas tend to react more. Improved educational attainment and dissemination of related knowledge are important contributors. Our results uncover an unexpected benefit of promoting access to vaccination.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00148-023-00942-4.

Hepatitis B and Hepatitis D Viruses: A Comprehensive Update with an Immunological Focus

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis delta virus (HDV) are highly prevalent viruses estimated to infect approximately 300 million people and 12-72 million people worldwide, respectively. HDV requires the HBV envelope to establish a successful infection. Concurrent infection with HBV and HDV can result in more severe disease outcomes than infection with HBV alone. These viruses can cause significant hepatic disease, including cirrhosis, fulminant hepatitis, and hepatocellular carcinoma, and represent a significant cause of global mortality. Therefore, a thorough understanding of these viruses and the immune response they generate is essential to enhance disease management. This review includes an overview of the HBV and HDV viruses, including life cycle, structure, natural course of infection, and histopathology. A discussion of the interplay between HDV RNA and HBV DNA during chronic infection is also included. It then discusses characteristics of the immune response with a focus on reactions to the antigenic hepatitis B surface antigen, including small, middle, and large surface antigens. This paper also reviews characteristics of the immune response to the hepatitis D antigen (including small and large antigens), the only protein expressed by hepatitis D. Lastly, we conclude with a discussion of recent therapeutic advances pertaining to these viruses.

Incidence and Influencing Factors of New Hepatitis B Infections and Spontaneous Clearance: A Large-Scale, Community-Based Study in China

Background: Hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) is widely used in hepatitis B screening, and HBsAg seroclearance indicates hepatitis B eradication. Few studies have explored the incidence of and determinants for spontaneous seroclearance using a long-term follow-up cohort study. Our research aimed to examine the incidence of and influencing factors for hepatitis B virus infection and spontaneous clearance of HBsAg from a large-scale cohort in China.

Methods: A total of 151,926 resident individuals in Tongxiang underwent HBsAg screening at least thrice in a 7-year period. Serum samples collected at baseline and follow-up examinations were tested for HBsAg. Cox proportional hazard models were used to analyze determinants of HBsAg seroclearance and persistent HBsAg presence.

Results: Among the 151,926 participants, new hepatitis B infections occurred in 4,497 participants, yielding an incidence rate of 571.38 per 100,000 person-years. The incidence rate for males was higher than that for females. In the multivariate Cox regression analysis, female gender, alcohol drinking history, hepatitis family history and middle-age group were predictors for persistent positive HBsAg status.

Conclusions: The incidence rate of new hepatitis B infections was 571.38 per 100,000 person-years. Male and aged people in this community cohort have a higher infection rate. Alcohol drinking and hepatitis family history were risk factor leading to chronic infection. Female and middle-aged people were prone to persistent positive HBsAg status.

Evaluating the independent influence of sexual transmission on HBV infection in China: a modeling study

Background

The long-term impact of sexual transmission on the hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in China remains unclear. This study aims to estimate the independent influence of sexual transmission on HBV infection.

Methods

Based on the natural history of HBV infection and three national serosurvey data of hepatitis B in China, we developed an age- and sex-specific discrete model to describe the transmission dynamics of HBV. The initial conditions of the model were determined according to the age- and sex-specific national serosurvey data in 1992. Based on the national survey data of hepatitis B in 1992 and 2006, by using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, we estimated the age- and sex-specific seroclearance rates of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) and the horizontal transmission rates as well as their 95% confidence intervals (CI). Then we used the age- and sex-specific national serosurvey data of hepatitis B in 2014 to test the accuracy of our model-based estimation. Finally, we evaluated the independent impact of sexual transmission on HBV infection and discussed the long-term effect of promotion of condom use in China.

Results

We estimated that the annual rates of HBsAg seroclearance for males and females aged 1–59 years were respectively 1.04% (95% CI, 0.49–1.59%) and 1.92% (95% CI, 1.11–2.73%). Due to sexual transmission, in 2014, the total number of chronic HBV infections in people aged 0–100 years increased 292,581, of which males increased 189,200 and females increased 103,381. In 2006, the acute HBV infections due to sexual transmission accounted for 24.76% (male: 31.33%, female: 17.94%) and in 2014, which accounted for 34.59% (male: 42.93%, female: 25.73%). However, if the condom usage rate was increased by 10% annually starting in 2019, then compared with current practice, the total number of acute HBV infections from 2019 to 2035 would be reduced by 16.68% (male: 21.49%, female: 11.93%). The HBsAg prevalence in people aged 1–59 years in 2035 would be reduced to 2.01% (male: 2.40%, female: 1.58%).

Conclusions

Sexual transmission has become the predominant route of acute HBV infection in China, especially for men. The promotion of condom use plays a significant role in reducing the cases of acute HBV infection.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-10408-5.

HBS Ag seroclearance and seroconversion time in Patients with chronic hepatitis B Infection

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis B Surface antigen (HBsAg) seroclearance and seroconversion (development of antibodies against HBsAg) can increases the survival of Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. The aim of this study was to determine the percentage and timing of HBsAg seroclearance and seroconversion in patients with chronic hepatitis B infection.

METHODS

1026 patients with CHB infection who referred to a private clinic were included. These patients had been followed-up for an average of 15 years. The patients whose HBs Ag was cleared from the blood and remained negative until the end of follow-up were designated as HBs Ag serocleared and the patients whose HBs Ab was positive during follow-upwas designated as HBs Ag seroconverted. The time of seroclearance and seroconversion of patients was recorded. Liver function tests, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and Hepatitis B early antigen (HBe Ag) status were extracted from the patients' medical records. Data were analysis with SPSS 17.

RESULTS

The duration of follow-up was from 2 to 410 months and most patients were males (58.2%).The survival rate of HBs Ag positivity after 5, 10 and 15 years were 95.6, 89.4 and 80.7%, and 98, 93.5 and 84.9% of patients had not yet developed anti-HBs antibodies after 5, 10 and 15 years, respectively. Age, gender and taking medication had no effect on HBs Ag clearance from the blood or anti-HBs production.

CONCLUSION

The HBs Ag seroconversion is a rare occurrence, but the incidence of this may increase with time, age and drug consumption. Though there was no relationship in our patients.

Epidemiological Trends in Gastrointestinal Cancers in China: An Ecological Study

BACKGROUND

In recent decades, the patterns and trends of gastrointestinal (GI) cancer epidemics in Chinese population have been changing.

AIMS

To present the epidemiological trends and geographic distributions of four major GI cancers (esophageal cancer, stomach cancer, liver cancer and colorectal cancer) in China from 2010 to 2014.

METHODS

It used standardized data extracted from the National Central Cancer Registry database.

RESULTS

The age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) of esophageal cancer decreased from 16.7 to 12.2 per 100,000 and the age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) decreased from 12.0 to 8.8 per 100,000. The ASIR and the ASMR of stomach cancer dropped from 23.7 to 19.5 per 100,000 and from 16.6 to 13.3 per 100,000. The ASIR of liver cancer fell from 21.4 to 17.8 per 100,000 and its ASMR fell from 18.4 per 100,000 to 15.3 per 100,000. The ASIR of colorectal cancer increased from 16.1 to 17.5 per 100,000, whereas the ASMR fluctuated between 7.6 and 7.9 per 100,000. Moreover, the incidence and mortality of each cancer differed between males and females, urban and rural residence, as well as various regions.

CONCLUSION

From 2010 to 2014, esophageal cancer, stomach cancer and liver cancer showed downward trend, while the ASIR of colorectal cancer slightly rose and its ASMR presented stable.

Estimating the impact of test-and-treat strategies on hepatitis B virus infection in China by using an age-structured mathematical model

The potential impact of increasing test-and-treat coverage on hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection remains unclear in China. The objective of this study was to develop a dynamic compartmental model at a population level to estimate the long-term effect of this strategy.Based on the natural history of HBV infection and 3 serosurvey data of hepatitis B in China, we proposed an age- and time-dependent discrete model to predict the number of new HBV infection, the number of chronic HBV infection, and the number of HBV-related deaths for the time from 2018 to 2050 under 5 different test-and-treat coverage and compared them with current intervention policy.Compared with current policy, if the test-and-treat coverage was increased to 100% since 2018, the numbers of chronic HBV infection, new HBV infection, and HBV-related deaths in 2035 would be reduced by 26.60%, 24.88%, 26.55%, respectively, and in 2050 it would be reduced by 44.93%, 43.29%, 43.67%, respectively. In contrast, if the test-and-treat coverage was increased by 10% every year since 2018, then the numbers of chronic HBV infection, new HBV infection, and HBV-related deaths in 2035 would be reduced by 21.81%, 20.10%, 21.40%, respectively, and in 2050 it would be reduced by 41.53%, 39.89%, 40.32%, respectively. In particular, if the test-and-treat coverage was increased to 75% since 2018, then the annual number of HBV-related deaths would begin to decrease from 2018. If the test-and-treat coverage was increased to above 25% since 2018, then the hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) prevalence for population aged 1 to 59 years in China would be reduced to below 2% in 2035. Our model also showed that in 2035, the numbers of chronic HBV infection and HBV-related deaths in 65 to 69 age group would be reduced the most (about 1.6 million and 13 thousand, respectively).Increasing test-and-treat coverage would significantly reduce HBV infection in China, especially in the middle-aged people and older people. The earlier the treatment and the longer the time, the more significant the reduction. Implementation of test-and-treat strategy is highly effective in controlling hepatitis B in China.