Experimental investigation on preconditioned rate induced tipping in a thermoacoustic system

Early warnings of tipping in a non-autonomous turbulent reactive flow system: Efficacy, reliability, and warning times

Real-world complex systems such as the earth's climate, ecosystems, stock markets, and combustion engines are prone to dynamical transitions from one state to another, with catastrophic consequences. State variables of such systems often exhibit aperiodic fluctuations, either chaotic or stochastic in nature. Often, the parameters describing a system vary with time, showing time dependency. Constrained by these effects, it becomes difficult to be warned of an impending critical transition, as such effects contaminate the precursory signals of the transition. Therefore, a need for efficient and reliable early-warning signals (EWSs) in such complex systems is in pressing demand. Motivated by this fact, in the present work, we analyze various EWSs in the context of a non-autonomous turbulent thermoacoustic system. In particular, we investigate the efficacy of different EWS in forecasting the onset of thermoacoustic instability (TAI) and their reliability with respect to the rate of change of the control parameter. This is the first experimental study of tipping points in a non-autonomous turbulent thermoacoustic system. We consider the Reynolds number (Re) as the control parameter, which is varied linearly with time at finite rates. The considered EWSs are derived from critical slowing down, spectral properties, and fractal characteristics of the system variables. The state of TAI is associated with large amplitude acoustic pressure oscillations that could lead thermoacoustic systems to break down. We consider acoustic pressure fluctuations as a potential system variable to perform the analysis. Our analysis shows that irrespective of the rate of variation of the control parameter, the Hurst exponent and variance of autocorrelation coefficients warn of an impending transition well in advance and are more reliable than other EWS measures. Additionally, we show the variation in the warning time to an impending TAI with rates of change of the control parameter. We also investigate the variation in amplitudes of the most significant modes of acoustic pressure oscillations with the Hurst exponent. Such variations lead to scaling laws that could be significant in prediction and devising control actions to mitigate TAI.

Rijke tube: A nonlinear oscillator

Dynamical systems theory has emerged as an interdisciplinary area of research to characterize the complex dynamical transitions in real-world systems. Various nonlinear dynamical phenomena and bifurcations have been discovered over the decades using different reduced-order models of oscillators. Different measures and methodologies have been developed theoretically to detect, control, or suppress the nonlinear oscillations. However, obtaining such phenomena experimentally is often challenging, time-consuming, and risky mainly due to the limited control of certain parameters during experiments. With this review, we aim to introduce a paradigmatic and easily configurable Rijke tube oscillator to the dynamical systems community. The Rijke tube is commonly used by the combustion community as a prototype to investigate the detrimental phenomena of thermoacoustic instability. Recent investigations in such Rijke tubes have utilized various methodologies from dynamical systems theory to better understand the occurrence of thermoacoustic oscillations and their prediction and mitigation, both experimentally and theoretically. The existence of various dynamical behaviors has been reported in single and coupled Rijke tube oscillators. These behaviors include bifurcations, routes to chaos, noise-induced transitions, synchronization, and suppression of oscillations. Various early warning measures have been established to predict thermoacoustic instabilities. Therefore, this review article consolidates the usefulness of a Rijke tube oscillator in terms of experimentally discovering and modeling different nonlinear phenomena observed in physics, thus transcending the boundaries between the physics and the engineering communities.

Emergency rate-driven control for rotor angle instability in power systems

Renewable energy sources in modern power systems pose a serious challenge to the power system stability in the presence of stochastic fluctuations. Many efforts have been made to assess power system stability from the viewpoint of the bifurcation theory. However, these studies have not covered the dynamic evolution of renewable energy integrated, non-autonomous power systems. Here, we numerically explore the transition phenomena exhibited by a non-autonomous stochastic bi-stable power system oscillator model. We use additive white Gaussian noise to model the stochasticity in power systems. We observe that the delay in the transition observed for the variation of mechanical power as a function of time shows significant variations in the presence of noise. We identify that if the angular velocity approaches the noise floor before crossing the unstable manifold, the rate at which the parameter evolves has no control over the transition characteristics. In such cases, the response of the system is purely controlled by the noise, and the system undergoes noise-induced transitions to limit-cycle oscillations. Furthermore, we employ an emergency control strategy to maintain the stable non-oscillatory state once the system has crossed the quasi-static bifurcation point. We demonstrate an effective control strategy that opens a possibility of maintaining the stability of electric utility that operates near the physical limits.

Effect of rate of change of parameter on early warning signals for critical transitions

Many dynamical systems exhibit abrupt transitions or tipping as the control parameter is varied. In scenarios where the parameter is varied continuously, the rate of change of the control parameter greatly affects the performance of early warning signals (EWS) for such critical transitions. We study the impact of variation of the control parameter with a finite rate on the performance of EWS for critical transitions in a thermoacoustic system (a horizontal Rijke tube) exhibiting subcritical Hopf bifurcation. There is a growing interest in developing early warning signals for tipping in real systems. First, we explore the efficacy of early warning signals based on critical slowing down and fractal characteristics. From this study, lag-1 autocorrelation (AC) and Hurst exponent (H) are found to be good measures to predict the transition well before the tipping point. The warning time, obtained using AC and H, reduces with an increase in the rate of change of the control parameter following an inverse power law relation. Hence, for very fast rates, the warning time may be too short to perform any control action. Furthermore, we report the observation of a hyperexponential scaling relation between the AC and the variance of fluctuations during such a dynamic Hopf bifurcation. We construct a theoretical model for noisy Hopf bifurcation wherein the control parameter is continuously varied at different rates to study the effect of rate of change of the parameter on EWS. Similar results, including the hyperexponential scaling, are observed in the model as well.

Rate-induced transitions and advanced takeoff in power systems

One of the most common causes of failures in complex systems in nature or engineering is an abrupt transition from a stable to an alternate stable state. Such transitions cause failures in the dynamic power systems. We focus on this transition from a stable to an unstable manifold for a rate-dependent mechanical power input via a numerical investigation in a theoretical power system model. Our studies uncover early transitions that depend on the rate of variation of mechanical input. Furthermore, we determine the dependency of a critical rate on initial conditions of the system. Accordingly, this knowledge of the critical rate can be used in devising an effective control strategy based on artificial intelligence (AI).

Interplay between random fluctuations and rate dependent phenomena at slow passage to limit-cycle oscillations in a bistable thermoacoustic system

We study the impact of noise on the rate dependent transitions in a noisy bistable oscillator using a thermoacoustic system as an example. As the parameter-the heater power-is increased in a quasi-steady manner, beyond a critical value, the thermoacoustic system undergoes a subcritical Hopf bifurcation and exhibits periodic oscillations. We observe that the transition to this oscillatory state is often delayed when the control parameter is varied as a function of time. However, the presence of inherent noise in the system introduces high variability in the characteristics of this critical transition. As a result, if the value of the system variable-the acoustic pressure-approaches the noise floor before the system crosses the unstable manifold, the effect of rate on the critical transition becomes irrelevant in determining the transition characteristics, and the system undergoes a noise-induced tipping to limit-cycle oscillations. The presence of noise-induced tipping makes it difficult to identify the stability regimes in such systems by using stability maps for the corresponding deterministic system.

Experiments and modelling of rate-dependent transition delay in a stochastic subcritical bifurcation

Complex systems exhibiting critical transitions when one of their governing parameters varies are ubiquitous in nature and in engineering applications. Despite a vast literature focusing on this topic, there are few studies dealing with the effect of the rate of change of the bifurcation parameter on the tipping points. In this work, we consider a subcritical stochastic Hopf bifurcation under two scenarios: the bifurcation parameter is first changed in a quasi-steady manner and then, with a finite ramping rate. In the latter case, a rate-dependent bifurcation delay is observed and exemplified experimentally using a thermoacoustic instability in a combustion chamber. This delay increases with the rate of change. This leads to a state transition of larger amplitude compared with the one that would be experienced by the system with a quasi-steady change of the parameter. We also bring experimental evidence of a dynamic hysteresis caused by the bifurcation delay when the parameter is ramped back. A surrogate model is derived in order to predict the statistic of these delays and to scrutinize the underlying stochastic dynamics. Our study highlights the dramatic influence of a finite rate of change of bifurcation parameters upon tipping points, and it pinpoints the crucial need of considering this effect when investigating critical transitions.