Influence of changes in body fat on clinical outcomes in a general population: a 12-year follow-up report on the Ansan-Ansung cohort in the Korean Genome Environment Study

Electrocardiography score based on the Minnesota code classification system predicts cardiovascular mortality in an asymptomatic low-risk population

BACKGROUND

The use of a single abnormal finding on electrocardiography (ECG) is not recommended for stratifying the risk of cardiovascular (CV) events in low-risk general populations because of its low discriminative power. However, the value of a scoring system containing multiple abnormal ECG findings for predicting CV death has not been sufficiently evaluated.

METHODS

In a prospective community-based cohort study, 8417 participants without atherosclerotic CV diseases (ASCVDs) and any related symptoms were followed for 18 years. The standard 12-lead ECGs were recorded at baseline and the ECG findings were categorized using the Minnesota code classification. CV deaths were defined as death from myocardial infarction (MI), chronic ischemic heart disease, heart failure, fatal arrhythmia, cerebrovascular event, pulmonary thromboembolism, peripheral vascular disease and sudden cardiac arrest and identified using the Korean National Statistical Office (KOSTAT) database.

RESULTS

In a multivariate Cox proportional hazard (CPH) model, major and minor ST-T wave abnormalities, atrial fibrillation (AF), Q waves in the anterior leads, the lack of Q waves in the posterior leads, high amplitudes of the left and right precordial leads, left axis deviation and sinus tachycardia were associated with higher risks of CV deaths. The ECG score consisted of these findings showed modest predictive values represented by C-statistics that ranged from 0.632 to 760 during the follow-up and performed better in the early follow-up period. The ECG score independently predicted CV death after adjustment for relevant covariates in a multivariate model, and improved the predictive performance of the 10-year ASCVD risk estimator and a model of conventional risk factors including age, diabetes and current smoking. The combined ECG score (Harrell's C-index: 0.852, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.828-0.876) composed of the ECG score and the conventional risk factors outperformed the 10-year ASCVD risk estimator (Harrell's C-index: 0.806; 95% CI, 0.780-0.833) and the model of the conventional risk factors (Harrell's C-index: 0.841, 95% CI, 0.817-0.865) and exhibited an excellent goodness of fit between the predicted and observed probabilities of CV death.

CONCLUSIONS

The ECG score could be useful to predict CV death independently and may add value to the conventional CV risk estimators regarding the risk stratification of CV death in asymptomatic low-risk general populations.

Physiology of sedentary behavior

Sedentary behaviors (SB) are characterized by low energy expenditure while in a sitting or reclining posture. Evidence relevant to understanding the physiology of SB can be derived from studies employing several experimental models: bed rest, immobilization, reduced step count, and reducing/interrupting prolonged SB. We examine the relevant physiological evidence relating to body weight and energy balance, intermediary metabolism, cardiovascular and respiratory systems, the musculoskeletal system, the central nervous system, and immunity and inflammatory responses. Excessive and prolonged SB can lead to insulin resistance, vascular dysfunction, shift in substrate use toward carbohydrate oxidation, shift in muscle fiber from oxidative to glycolytic type, reduced cardiorespiratory fitness, loss of muscle mass and strength and bone mass, and increased total body fat mass and visceral fat depot, blood lipid concentrations, and inflammation. Despite marked differences across individual studies, longer term interventions aimed at reducing/interrupting SB have resulted in small, albeit marginally clinically meaningful, benefits on body weight, waist circumference, percent body fat, fasting glucose, insulin, HbA1c and HDL concentrations, systolic blood pressure, and vascular function in adults and older adults. There is more limited evidence for other health-related outcomes and physiological systems and for children and adolescents. Future research should focus on the investigation of molecular and cellular mechanisms underpinning adaptations to increasing and reducing/interrupting SB and the necessary changes in SB and physical activity to impact physiological systems and overall health in diverse population groups.

Association between Age of Onset of Hypertension and Incident Atrial Fibrillation

We investigated whether age at hypertension (HTN) onset was associated with the risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) in the general population. This prospective longitudinal community-based cohort study included 9892 participants without AF at baseline, who underwent biennial electrocardiography for a median duration of 11.5 years. The participants were divided into five groups, consisting of a normotensive group (Group-N) and four HTN groups based on HTN onset age: <45 years (Group-H1); 45−54 years (Group-H2); 55−64 years (Group-H3); and ≥65 years (Group-H4). A multivariate Cox proportional hazards model showed that the presence of HTN at baseline was associated with higher AF risk (hazard ratio [HR], 1.93; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.32−2.80). The participants in Group-H1 had the highest risk of AF (HR 3.18; CI 1.74−5.82), and the risk of AF decreased as HTN onset age increased across the four HTN groups (p for trend = 0.014). The AF onset age was significantly younger in participants in Group-H1 than in Groups-H2−H4. Early-onset HTN was associated with an increased risk of AF, and younger onset of AF in the general population. Surveillance for AF should be considered at a younger age in individuals with HTN.