The risk of intrapartum cesarean delivery in advanced maternal age

Unplanned cesarean sections in advanced maternal age: A predictive model

INTRODUCTION

As maternal age during pregnancy is rising all over the world, there is a growing need for prognostic factors that determine maternal and perinatal outcomes in older women.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

This study is a retrospective cohort study of women aged 40 years or older at the time of delivery in four Santeon hospitals across the Netherlands between January 2016 and December 2019. Outcomes were compared between women of 40-44 years (advanced maternal age) and 45 years and older (very advanced maternal age). Primary outcome was unplanned cesarean section, secondary outcomes included postpartum hemorrhage and neonatal outcomes. Multivariate regression analysis was performed to analyze predictive factors for unplanned cesarean sections in women who attempted vaginal delivery. Subsequently, a predictive model and risk scores were constructed to predict unplanned cesarean section.

RESULTS

A cohort of 1660 women was analyzed; mean maternal age was 41.4 years, 4.8% of the women were 45 years and older. In both groups, more than half of the women had not delivered vaginally before. Unplanned cesarean sections were performed in 21.1% of the deliveries in advanced maternal age and in 29.1% in very advanced maternal age. Four predictive factors were significantly correlated with unplanned cesarean sections: higher body mass index (BMI), no previous vaginal delivery, spontaneous start of delivery and number of days needed for cervical priming. A predictive model was constructed from these factors with an area under the curve of 0.75 (95% confidence interval 0.72-0.78). A sensitivity analysis in nulliparous women proved that BMI, days of cervical priming, age, and gestational age were risk factors, whereas spontaneous start of delivery and induction were protective factors. There was one occurrence of neonatal death.

CONCLUSIONS

Women of advanced maternal age and those of very advanced maternal age have a higher chance of having an unplanned cesarean section compared to the general obstetric population in the Netherlands. Unplanned cesarean sections can be predicted through use of our predictive model. Risk increases with higher BMI, no previous vaginal delivery, and increasing number of days needed for cervical priming, whereas spontaneous start of labor lowers the risk. In nulliparous women, age and gestational age also increase risk, but induction lowers the risk of having an unplanned cesarean section.

A prediction tool for mode of delivery in twin pregnancies-a secondary analysis of the Twin Birth Study

BACKGROUND

One of the controversies regarding the management of twin gestations relates to the mode of delivery. Currently, counseling regarding the mode of delivery and the chance of successful vaginal twin delivery is based on the average risk for intrapartum cesarean delivery in the general population of twin pregnancies. Decision support tools that provide an individualized risk for intrapartum cesarean delivery based on the unique characteristics of each patient can improve counseling and decision-making regarding the choice of mode of delivery in twin pregnancies.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to develop and validate a prediction model to determine the risk for intrapartum cesarean delivery in twin pregnancies.

STUDY DESIGN

In this secondary analysis of the Twin Birth Study, a multicenter randomized controlled trial, we considered the subgroup of individuals who underwent a trial of vaginal delivery. Candidate predictors included maternal age, parity, previous cesarean delivery, conception method, chorionicity, diabetes and hypertension in pregnancy, gestational age at birth, the onset of labor, presentation of the second twin, sonographic fetal weight estimation, and fetal sex. The co-primary outcomes were overall intrapartum cesarean delivery and cesarean delivery of the second twin. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to estimate the probability of the study outcomes. Model performance was evaluated using measures of discrimination (the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve), calibration, and predictive accuracy. Internal validation was performed using the bootstrap resampling technique.

RESULTS

A total of 1221 individuals met the study criteria. The rate of overall intrapartum cesarean delivery and cesarean delivery for the second twin was 25.4% and 5.7%, respectively. The most contributory predictor variables were nulliparity, term birth (≥37 weeks), a noncephalic presentation of the second twin, previous cesarean delivery, and labor induction. The models for overall intrapartum cesarean delivery and cesarean delivery of the second twin had good overall discriminatory accuracy (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.720; 95% confidence interval, 0.688-0.752 and 0.736; 95% confidence interval, 0.669-0.803, respectively) and calibration (as illustrated by the calibration plot and Brier scores of 0.168; 95% confidence interval, 0.156-0.180 and 0.051; 95% confidence interval, 0.040-0.061, respectively). The models achieved good specificity (66.7% and 81.6%, respectively), high negative predictive value (86.0% and 96.9%, respectively), and moderate sensitivity (68.1% and 57.1%, respectively).

CONCLUSION

The prediction models developed in this study may assist care providers in counseling individuals regarding the optimal timing and mode of delivery in twin pregnancies by providing individualized estimates of the risk for intrapartum cesarean delivery.

Recent Status of Pregnancies at an Advanced Maternal Age at a Japanese Perinatal Center

Objective We compared the recent obstetric outcomes of women aged 40 and over as advanced maternal age (AMA) to those with AMA more than 10 years ago. Methods This was a retrospective study of primiparous singleton pregnancies who delivered at ≥22 weeks of gestation managed at Japanese Red Cross Katsushika Maternity Hospital between 2003-2007 and 2013-2017. Results The percentage of primiparous women aged with AMA who delivered at ≥22 weeks of gestation increased from 1.5 to 4.8% (p<0.01) due to the increase in the pregnancy conceived by in vitro fertilization (IVF). In the pregnancies with AMA, the percentage of cesarean delivery decreased from 51.7 to 41.0% (p=0.01), while the prevalence of postpartum hemorrhage increased from 7.5 to 14.9% (p=0.01). The latter was associated with an increased rate of in vitro fertilization (IVF) use. Conclusions The percentage of AMA pregnancies significantly increased with the development of assisted reproductive technology, and the prevalence of postpartum hemorrhage also increased in AMA pregnancies.