Small mammal diversity and dynamics within Nigeria, with emphasis on reservoirs of the lassa virus

Rodent control strategies and Lassa virus: some unexpected effects in Guinea, West Africa

The Natal multimammate mouse (Mastomys natalensis) is the host of Lassa mammarenavirus, causing Lassa haemorrhagic fever in West Africa. As there is currently no operational vaccine and therapeutic drugs are limited, we explored rodent control as an alternative to prevent Lassa virus spillover in Upper Guinea, where the disease is highly endemic in rural areas. In a seven-year experiment, we distributed rodenticides for 10-30 days once a year and, in the last year, added intensive snap trapping for three months in all the houses of one village. We also captured rodents both before and after the intervention period to assess their effectiveness by examining alterations in trapping success and infection rates (Lassa virus RNA and IgG antibodies). We found that both interventions reduced the rodent population by 74-92% but swiftly rebounded to pre-treatment levels, even already six months after the last snap-trapping control. Furthermore, while we observed that chemical control modestly decreased Lassa virus infection rates annually (a reduction of 5% in seroprevalence per year), the intensive trapping unexpectedly led to a significantly higher infection rate (from a seroprevalence of 28% before to 67% after snap trapping control). After seven years, we conclude that annual chemical control, alone or with intensive trapping, is ineffective and sometimes counterproductive in preventing Lassa virus spillover in rural villages. These unexpected findings may result from density-dependent breeding compensation following culling and the survival of a small percentage of chronically infected rodents that may spread the virus to a new susceptible generation of mice.

Circulation of Lassa virus across the endemic Edo-Ondo axis, Nigeria, with cross-species transmission between multimammate mice

We phylogenetically compared sequences of the zoonotic Lassa virus (LASV) obtained from Mastomys rodents in seven localities across the highly endemic Edo and Ondo States within Nigeria. Sequencing 1641 nt from the S segment of the virus genome, we resolved clades within lineage II that were either limited to Ebudin and Okhuesan in Edo state (2g-beta) or along Owo-Okeluse-Ifon in Ondo state (2g-gamma). We also found clades within Ekpoma, a relatively large cosmopolitan town in Edo state, that extended into other localities within Edo (2g-alpha) and Ondo (2g-delta). LASV variants from M. natalensis within Ebudin and Ekpoma in Edo State (dated approximately 1961) were more ancient compared to those from Ondo state (approximately 1977), suggesting a broadly east-west virus migration across south-western Nigeria; a pattern not always consistent with LASV sequences derived from humans in the same localities. Additionally, in Ebudin and Ekpoma, LASV sequences between M. natalensis and M. erythroleucus were interspersed on the phylogenetic tree, but those from M. erythroleucus were estimated to emerge more recently (approximately 2005). Overall, our results show that LASV amplification in certain localities (reaching a prevalence as high as 76% in Okeluse), anthropogenically-aided spread of rodent-borne variants amidst the larger towns (involving communal accommodation such as student hostels), and virus-exchange between syntopic M. natalensis and M. erythroleucus rodents (as the latter, a savanna species, encroaches southward into the degraded forest) pose perpetual zoonotic hazard across the Edo-Ondo Lassa fever belt, threatening to accelerate the dissemination of the virus into non endemic areas.

Seroepidemiology of Lassa virus in pregnant women in Southern Nigeria: A prospective hospital-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

There is limited epidemiological evidence on Lassa fever in pregnant women with acute gaps on prevalence, infection incidence, and risk factors. Such evidence would facilitate the design of therapeutic and vaccine trials and the design of control programs. Our study sought to address some of these gaps by estimating the seroprevalence and seroconversion risk of Lassa fever in pregnant women.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We conducted a prospective hospital-based cohort between February and December 2019 in Edo State, Southern Nigeria, enrolling pregnant women at antenatal clinic and following them up at delivery. Samples were evaluated for IgG antibodies against Lassa virus. The study demonstrates a seroprevalence of Lassa IgG antibodies of 49.6% and a seroconversion risk of 20.8%. Seropositivity was strongly correlated with rodent exposure around homes with an attributable risk proportion of 35%. Seroreversion was also seen with a seroreversion risk of 13.4%.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Our study suggests that 50% of pregnant women were at risk of Lassa infection and that 35.0% of infections might be preventable by avoiding rodent exposure and conditions which facilitate infestation and the risk of human-rodent contact. While the evidence on rodent exposure is subjective and further studies are needed to provide a better understanding of the avenues of human-rodent interaction; public health measures to decrease the risk of rodent infestation and the risk of spill over events may be beneficial. With an estimated seroconversion risk of 20.8%, our study suggests an appreciable risk of contracting Lassa fever during pregnancy and while most of these seroconversions may not be new infections, given the high risk of adverse outcomes in pregnancy, it supports the need for preventative and therapeutic options against Lassa fever in pregnancy. The occurrence of seroreversion in our study suggests that the prevalence obtained in this, and other cohorts may be an underestimate of the actual proportion of women of childbearing age who present at pregnancy with prior LASV exposure. Additionally, the occurrence of both seroconversion and seroreversion in this cohort suggests that these parameters would need to be considered for the development of Lassa vaccine efficacy, effectiveness, and utility models.

Geographical drivers and climate-linked dynamics of Lassa fever in Nigeria

Lassa fever is a longstanding public health concern in West Africa. Recent molecular studies have confirmed the fundamental role of the rodent host (Mastomys natalensis) in driving human infections, but control and prevention efforts remain hampered by a limited baseline understanding of the disease's true incidence, geographical distribution and underlying drivers. Here, we show that Lassa fever occurrence and incidence is influenced by climate, poverty, agriculture and urbanisation factors. However, heterogeneous reporting processes and diagnostic laboratory access also appear to be important drivers of the patchy distribution of observed disease incidence. Using spatiotemporal predictive models we show that including climatic variability added retrospective predictive value over a baseline model (11% decrease in out-of-sample predictive error). However, predictions for 2020 show that a climate-driven model performs similarly overall to the baseline model. Overall, with ongoing improvements in surveillance there may be potential for forecasting Lassa fever incidence to inform health planning.

A seasonal model to assess intervention strategies for preventing periodic recurrence of Lassa fever

Lassa haemorrhagic fever is listed in WHO's Blueprint priority list of diseases and pathogens prioritized for research and development, affecting several hundreds of thousands of people each year. Lassa fever is spread via infected Natal multimammate mice and also through human-to-human contacts and it is a particular threat to pregnant women. Despite its importance, relatively few mathematical models have been established for modelling Lassa fever transmission up to now. We establish and study a new compartmental model for Lassa fever transmission including asymptomatic carriers, quarantine and periodic coefficients to model annual weather changes. We determine parameter values providing the best fit to data from Nigerian states Edo and Ondo from 2018–20. We perform uncertainty analysis and PRCC analysis to assess the importance of different parameters and numerical simulations to estimate the possible effects of control measures in eradicating the disease. The results suggest that the most important parameter which might be subject of control measures is death rate of mice, while mouse-to-human and human-to-human transmission rates also significantly influence the number of infected. However, decreasing the latter two parameters seems insufficient to eradicate the disease, while a parallel application of decreasing transmission rates and increasing mouse death rate might be able to stop the epidemic.

The niche of One Health approaches in Lassa fever surveillance and control

Lassa fever (LF), a zoonotic illness, represents a public health burden in West African countries where the Lassa virus (LASV) circulates among rodents. Human exposure hinges significantly on LASV ecology, which is in turn shaped by various parameters such as weather seasonality and even virus and rodent-host genetics. Furthermore, human behaviour, despite playing a key role in the zoonotic nature of the disease, critically affects either the spread or control of human-to-human transmission. Previous estimations on LF burden date from the 80s and it is unclear how the population expansion and the improvement on diagnostics and surveillance methods have affected such predictions. Although recent data have contributed to the awareness of epidemics, the real impact of LF in West African communities will only be possible with the intensification of interdisciplinary efforts in research and public health approaches. This review discusses the causes and consequences of LF from a One Health perspective, and how the application of this concept can improve the surveillance and control of this disease in West Africa.

Bridging the gap: Using reservoir ecology and human serosurveys to estimate Lassa virus spillover in West Africa

Forecasting the risk of pathogen spillover from reservoir populations of wild or domestic animals is essential for the effective deployment of interventions such as wildlife vaccination or culling. Due to the sporadic nature of spillover events and limited availability of data, developing and validating robust, spatially explicit, predictions is challenging. Recent efforts have begun to make progress in this direction by capitalizing on machine learning methodologies. An important weakness of existing approaches, however, is that they generally rely on combining human and reservoir infection data during the training process and thus conflate risk attributable to the prevalence of the pathogen in the reservoir population with the risk attributed to the realized rate of spillover into the human population. Because effective planning of interventions requires that these components of risk be disentangled, we developed a multi-layer machine learning framework that separates these processes. Our approach begins by training models to predict the geographic range of the primary reservoir and the subset of this range in which the pathogen occurs. The spillover risk predicted by the product of these reservoir specific models is then fit to data on realized patterns of historical spillover into the human population. The result is a geographically specific spillover risk forecast that can be easily decomposed and used to guide effective intervention. Applying our method to Lassa virus, a zoonotic pathogen that regularly spills over into the human population across West Africa, results in a model that explains a modest but statistically significant portion of geographic variation in historical patterns of spillover. When combined with a mechanistic mathematical model of infection dynamics, our spillover risk model predicts that 897,700 humans are infected by Lassa virus each year across West Africa, with Nigeria accounting for more than half of these human infections.

The 2019 emergence of SARS-CoV-2 is a grim reminder of the threat animal-borne pathogens pose to human health. Even prior to SARS-CoV-2, the spillover of pathogens from animal reservoirs was a persistent problem, with pathogens such as Ebola, Nipah, and Lassa regularly but unpredictably causing outbreaks. Machine-learning models that anticipate when and where pathogen transmission from animals to humans is likely to occur would help guide surveillance efforts and preemptive countermeasures like information campaigns or vaccination programs. We develop a novel machine learning framework that uses datasets describing the distribution of a virus within its host and the range of its animal host, along with data on spatial patterns of human immunity, to infer rates of animal-to-human transmission across a region. By training the model on data from the animal host alone, our framework allows rigorous validation of spillover predictions using human data. We apply our framework to Lassa fever, a viral disease of West Africa that is spread to humans by rodents, and use the predictions to update estimates of Lassa virus infections in humans. Our results suggest that Nigeria is most at risk for the emergence of Lassa virus, and should be prioritized for outbreak-surveillance.

Infection pattern, case fatality rate and spread of Lassa virus in Nigeria

BACKGROUND

Lassa fever (LF) is a zoonotic infectious disease of public concern in Nigeria. The infection dynamics of the disease is not well elucidated in Nigeria. This study was carried out to describe the pattern of infection, case fatality rate and spread of lassa virus (LASV) from 2017 to 2020.

METHODS

Weekly epidemiological data on LF from December, 2016 to September, 2020 were obtained from Nigeria Centre for Disease Control. The number of confirmed cases and deaths were computed according to months and states. Descriptive statistics was performed and case fatality rate was calculated. Distribution and spread maps of LF over the four years period was performed on ArcMap 10.7.

RESULTS

A total of 2787 confirmed cases and 516 deaths were reported in Nigeria from December, 2016 to September, 2020. Increase in number of cases and deaths were observed with 298, 528, 796 and 1165 confirmed cases and 79, 125, 158 and 158 deaths in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 respectively. Over 60% of the cases were reported in two states, Edo and Ondo states. The LF cases spread from 19 states in 2017 to 32 states and Federal Capital Territory (FCT) in 2020. Ondo state (25.39%) had the highest of deaths rate from LF over the four years. Case fatality rate (CFR) of LF was highest in 2017 (26.5%) with CFR of 23.7, 19.6 and 13.4% in 2018, 2019 and 2020 respectively. The peak of infection was in the month of February for the four years. Infections increases at the onset of dry season in November and decline till April when the wet season sets-in.

CONCLUSION

There is an annual increase in the number of LASV infection across the states in Nigeria. There is need to heighten control strategies through the use of integrated approach, ranging from vector control, health education and early diagnosis.

Households as hotspots of Lassa fever? Assessing the spatial distribution of Lassa virus-infected rodents in rural villages of Guinea

The Natal multimammate mouse (Mastomys natalensis) is the reservoir host of Lassa virus (LASV), an arenavirus that causes Lassa haemorrhagic fever in humans in West Africa. While previous studies suggest that spillover risk is focal within rural villages due to the spatial behaviour of the rodents, the level of clustering was never specifically assessed. Nevertheless, detailed information on the spatial distribution of infected rodents would be highly valuable to optimize LASV-control campaigns, which are limited to rodent control or interrupting human-rodent contact considering that a human vaccine is not available. Here, we analysed data from a four-year field experiment to investigate whether LASV-infected rodents cluster in households in six rural villages in Guinea. Our analyses were based on the infection status (antibody or PCR) and geolocation of rodents (n = 864), and complemented with a phylogenetic analysis of LASV sequences (n = 119). We observed that the majority of infected rodents were trapped in a few houses (20%) and most houses were rodent-free at a specific point in time (60%). We also found that LASV strains circulating in a specific village were polyphyletic with respect to neighbouring villages, although most strains grouped together at the sub-village level and persisted over time. In conclusion, our results suggest that: (i) LASV spillover risk is heterogeneously distributed within villages in Guinea; (ii) viral elimination in one particular village is unlikely if rodents are not controlled in neighbouring villages. Such spatial information should be incorporated into eco-epidemiological models that assess the cost-efficiency of LASV control strategies.

Systematics, Ecology, and Host Switching: Attributes Affecting Emergence of the Lassa Virus in Rodents across Western Africa

Ever since it was established that rodents serve as reservoirs of the zoonotic Lassa virus (LASV), scientists have sought to answer the questions: which populations of rodents carry the virus? How do fluctuations in LASV prevalence and rodent abundance influence Lassa fever outbreaks in humans? What does it take for the virus to adopt additional rodent hosts, proliferating what already are devastating cycles of rodent-to-human transmission? In this review, we examine key aspects of research involving the biology of rodents that affect their role as LASV reservoirs, including phylogeography, demography, virus evolution, and host switching. We discuss how this knowledge can help control Lassa fever and suggest further areas for investigation.

Native and Invasive Small Mammals in Urban Habitats along the Commercial Axis Connecting Benin and Niger, West Africa

Based on compiled small mammal trapping data collected over 12 years from Benin and Niger (3701 individual records from 66 sampling sites), located in mainland Africa, we here describe the small mammal community assemblage in urban habitats along the commercial axis connecting the two countries, from the seaport of Cotonou to the Sahelian hinterland, with a particular focus on invasive species. In doing so, we document extant species distributions, which highlight the risks of continuing the range expansion of three synanthropic invasive rodent species, namely black rats (Rattus rattus), brown rats (R. norvegicus), and house mice (Mus musculus). Using various diversity estimates and community ecology approaches, we detect a latitudinal gradient of species richness that significantly decreased Northward. We show that shrews (Crocidura) represent a very important component of micro-mammal fauna in West African towns and villages, especially at lower latitudes. We also demonstrate that invasive and native synanthropic rodents do not distribute randomly in West Africa, which suggests that invasive species dynamics and history differ markedly, and that they involve gradual, as well as human-mediated, long distance dispersal. Patterns of segregation are also observed between native Mastomys natalensis and invasive rats R. rattus and R. norvegicus, suggesting potential native-to-invasive species turn over. Consequences of such processes, especially in terms of public health, are discussed.

Molecular taxonomy of Crocidura species (Eulipotyphla: Soricidae) in a key biogeographical region for African shrews, Nigeria

The taxonomy of African shrew species is still unresolved due to their conserved morphology. This also affects knowledge concerning their geographic distribution. In Nigeria, using mitochondrial Cytochrome b gene sequences, we carried out a survey for shrews from the genus Crocidura across various ecological zones to determine taxa that are present and also to assess their phylogeographic structure. Our analyses include 183 specimens collected with Sherman traps from 19 localities around the country. We detected six taxa: Crocidura olivieri lineages II, III and IV, C. hildegardeae, C. jouvenetae, and C. foxi. Among these, C. hildegardeae and C. jouvenetae are reported in Nigeria for the first time. Phylogenetic comparison of our genetic sequences to those generated from other parts of Africa demonstrate that all species in our study, as currently defined, are in need of taxonomic revision. Geographically, Nigeria seems to represent the easternmost boundary for C. olivieri lineage II and C. jouvenetae, and the western distribution limit of C. olivieri lineage IV and C. hildegardeae. The Niger River appears to be the most significant topographical barrier restricting these taxa. This information is vital to preserving the diversity but also managing the epidemiological potential of these small mammals.

Widespread arenavirus occurrence and seroprevalence in small mammals, Nigeria

Background

Lassa fever, killing thousands of people annually, is the most reported viral zoonotic disease in Nigeria. Recently, different rodent species carrying diverse lineages of the Lassa virus (LASV) in addition to a novel Mobala-like genetic sequence were detected within the country. Here, screening 906 small mammal specimens from 11 localities for IgG antibodies and incorporating previous PCR detection data involving the same populations, we further describe arenavirus prevalence across Nigeria in relation to host species and geographical location.

Methods

Small mammals were trapped during the period 2011–2015 according to geographical location (endemic and non-endemic zones for Lassa fever), season (rainy and dry seasons between 2011 and 2012 for certain localities) and habitat (indoors, peridomestic settings and sylvatic vegetation). Identification of animal specimens from genera such as Mastomys and Mus (Nannomys) was assisted by DNA sequencing. Small mammals were tested for LASV IgG antibody using an indirect immunofluorescence assay (IFA).

Results

Small mammals were infected in both the endemic and non-endemic zones for Lassa fever, with a wider range of species IgG-positive (n = 8) than those which had been previously detected to be PCR-positive (n = 3). IgG-positive species, according to number of infected individuals, were Mastomys natalensis (n = 40), Mastomys erythroleucus (n = 15), Praomys daltoni (n = 6), Mus baoulei (n = 5), Rattus rattus (n = 2), Crocidura spp. (n = 2), Mus minutoides (n = 1) and Praomys misonnei (n = 1). Multimammate mice (Mastomys natalensis and M. erythroleucus) were the most ubiquitously infected, with animals testing positive by either PCR or IgG in 7 out of the 11 localities sampled. IgG prevalence in M. natalensis ranged from 1% in Abagboro, 17–36 % in Eguare Egoro, Ekpoma and Ngel Nyaki, up to 52 % in Mayo Ranewo. Prevalence according to locality, season and age was not, however, statistically significant for M. natalensis in Eguare Egoro and Ekpoma, localities that were sampled longitudinally.

Conclusions

Overall, our study demonstrates that arenavirus occurrence is probably more widely distributed geographically and in extent of host taxa than is currently realized. This expanded scope should be taken into consideration in Lassa fever control efforts. Further sampling should also be carried out to isolate and characterize potential arenaviruses present in small mammal populations we found to be seropositive.

Movement Patterns of Small Rodents in Lassa Fever-Endemic Villages in Guinea

The Natal multimammate mouse (Mastomys natalensis) is the reservoir host of Lassa arenavirus, the etiological agent of Lassa fever in humans. Because there exists no vaccine for human use, rodent control and adjusting human behavior are currently considered to be the only options for Lassa fever control. In order to develop efficient rodent control programs, more information about the host's ecology is needed. In this study, we investigated the spatial behavior of M. natalensis and other small rodents in two capture-mark-recapture and four dyed bait (Rhodamine B) experiments in Lassa fever-endemic villages in Upper Guinea. During the capture-mark-recapture studies, 23% of the recaptured M. natalensis moved between the houses and proximate fields. While M. natalensis was found over the entire study grid (2 ha), other rodent species (Praomys daltoni, Praomys rostratus, Lemniscomys striatus, Mus spp.) were mostly trapped in the surrounding fields. Distances between recapture occasions never exceeded 100 m for all rodent species. During the dyed bait experiments, 11% of M. natalensis and 41% of P. daltoni moved from the fields to houses. We conclude that commensal M. natalensis easily moves between houses and proximate fields in Guinea. We therefore consider occasional domestic rodent elimination to be an unsustainable approach to reduce Lassa virus transmission risk to humans, as M. natalensis is likely to reinvade houses quickly from fields in which rodents are not controlled. A combination of permanent rodent elimination with other control strategies (e.g., make houses rodent proof or attract predators) could be more effective for Lassa fever control, but must be further investigated.