Incidence of varicella and herpes zoster after inclusion of varicella vaccine in national immunization schedule in Turkey: time trend study

Epidemiological Characteristics of Varicella in Anhui Province, China, 2012-2021: Surveillance Study

BACKGROUND

Varicella is a mild, self-limited disease caused by varicella-zoster virus (VZV) infection. Recently, the disease burden of varicella has been gradually increasing in China; however, the epidemiological characteristics of varicella have not been reported for Anhui Province.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to analyze the epidemiology of varicella in Anhui from 2012 to 2021, which can provide a basis for the future study and formulation of varicella prevention and control policies in the province.

METHODS

Surveillance data were used to characterize the epidemiology of varicella in Anhui from 2012 to 2021 in terms of population, time, and space. Spatial autocorrelation of varicella was explored using the Moran index (Moran I). The Kulldorff space-time scan statistic was used to analyze the spatiotemporal aggregation of varicella.

RESULTS

A total of 276,115 cases of varicella were reported from 2012 to 2021 in Anhui, with an average annual incidence of 44.8 per 100,000, and the highest incidence was 81.2 per 100,000 in 2019. The male-to-female ratio of cases was approximately 1.26, which has been gradually decreasing in recent years. The population aged 5-14 years comprised the high-incidence group, although the incidence in the population 30 years and older has gradually increased. Students accounted for the majority of cases, and the proportion of cases in both home-reared children (aged 0-7 years who are not sent to nurseries, daycare centers, or school) and kindergarten children (aged 3-6 years) has changed slightly in recent years. There were two peaks of varicella incidence annually, except for 2020, and the incidence was typically higher in the winter peak than in summer. The incidence of varicella in southern Anhui was higher than that in northern Anhui. The average annual incidence at the county level ranged from 6.61 to 152.14 per 100,000, and the varicella epidemics in 2018-2021 were relatively severe. The spatial and temporal distribution of varicella in Anhui was not random, with a positive spatial autocorrelation found at the county level (Moran I=0.412). There were 11 districts or counties with high-high clusters, mainly distributed in the south of Anhui, and 3 districts or counties with high-low or low-high clusters. Space-time scan analysis identified five possible clusters of areas, and the most likely cluster was distributed in the southeastern region of Anhui.

CONCLUSIONS

This study comprehensively describes the epidemiology and changing trend of varicella in Anhui from 2012 to 2021. In the future, preventive and control measures should be strengthened for the key populations and regions of varicella.

Trends in age-specific varicella incidences following the introduction of the general recommendation for varicella immunization in Germany, 2006-2022

BACKGROUND

In Germany, general childhood varicella vaccination has been recommended since 2004. A feared effect of low vaccination coverage is a possible shift in incidence from children to teenagers and young adults who are at higher risk of severe outcomes. If true, this shift would possibly necessitate changes to the national immunization strategy. We aimed to evaluate the effects of the general vaccination recommendation on age-specific varicella incidences in Germany in general and examine specifically whether a shift from children to teenagers (15 to 19 years) has occurred.

METHODS

Trends in age-specific incidences were evaluated using triangulation with the following datasets: national mandatory notification data (N) (2014-2022), billing data of the statutory health insurance associations (I) (2009-2017) and data from a doctor's sentinel system (S) (2006-2017). Similar clinical case definitions were used in N and S, while I used ICD-10-codes. Age groups were stratified as available in all three systems. Incidences per year were calculated based on the total population (N), the number of statutory health insured (I), and extrapolated from S to the total population.

RESULTS

During all years of observation, age-specific incidences have dropped significantly across all age-groups for S und I. The age groups (under 10 years) with initially highest incidences were the ones with the strongest reductions (under 1 year: -90%, 1-4 years: -95.5%, 5-9 years: -89.2% for S; -67.7%, -78%, -79.3% for I). A single 53.1% increase in the low incidence in S among 15-19-year olds observed in 2017 compared to 2016 could not be confirmed in N or I. Increases in incidences during the first two years of N are probably due to improved notification behaviour over these years. In 2019, all age-specific incidences increased (N), with 15 to 19-year olds showing the highest relative increase (28.2%).

CONCLUSIONS

Since the introduction of the general vaccine recommendation against varicella, incidences across all age-groups have declined significantly. Available data indicate no evidence for a shift in disease incidence to older age groups. Every incidence increase beyond childhood age should however be followed up closely. So far, children and adolescents have both benefitted from the current vaccination strategy.

Herpes Zoster Burden of Disease and Clinical Management in Turkey: A Comprehensive Literature Review

INTRODUCTION

Herpes zoster (HZ), or shingles, is caused by the reactivation of varicella zoster virus (VZV) and typically presents as an acute, painful dermatomal rash, but can lead to long-term, distressing complications such as postherpetic neuralgia (PHN). Increasing trends in HZ cases are evident globally among the aging population; however, reviews investigating the epidemiology and clinical management of HZ in Turkey are lacking. Therefore, a literature review of local studies in Turkey was conducted to identify the data available and identify gaps in the literature.

METHODS

Literature searches were carried out in PubMed and local journals to retrieve published articles that reported surveillance data, seroepidemiology, patient outcomes, or clinical management related to HZ or VZV in Turkey until April 30, 2022. Studies included primary data reports, case studies, secondary data reviews, and epidemiological studies in healthy or at-risk populations; HZ was the primary focus of the review.

RESULTS

No studies reported VZV or HZ epidemiological data at a national level. One large retrospective study in Istanbul reported that HZ incidence rates significantly increased in adults 18-44 years of age between 2011 and 2019. Four single-center studies reported the proportion of dermatological patients with HZ at 0.43-1.56%. PHN was the most common reported complication, occurring in 8-58.9% of patients with HZ. However, out of 39 identified case reports, HZ ophthalmicus was the most frequently reported complication. Two studies highlighted poor disease awareness and risk perception of HZ among Turkish citizens.

CONCLUSION

Overall, there were limited comprehensive epidemiological data on HZ in Turkey. However, the abundance of case studies on HZ complications indicates a strong disease presence and diverse clinical management in Turkey. Further research will be important to understand the impact of HZ, increase disease awareness, and support the introduction of new preventative strategies.

Impacts of routine varicella vaccination program and COVID-19 pandemic on varicella and herpes zoster incidence and health resource use among children in Japan

PURPOSE

To determine the epidemiological trends in pediatric varicella and herpes zoster incidence and changes in healthcare resource use from 2005 to 2022 using a nationally representative database in Japan.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We conducted a retrospective observational study consisting of 3.5 million children with 177 million person-months during 2005-2022 using Japan Medical Data Center (JMDC) claims database in Japan. We investigated trends in incidence rates of varicella and herpes zoster and changes in healthcare resource use (e.g., antiviral use, office visits, and healthcare costs) over 18 years. Interrupted time-series analyses were used to investigate the impact of the routine varicella vaccination program in 2014 and infection prevention measures against COVID-19 on incidence rates of varicella and herpes zoster and related healthcare utilization.

RESULTS

After the introduction of the routine immunization program in 2014, we observed level changes in incidence rates (45.6 % reduction [95 %CI, 32.9-56.0] of varicella cases, antiviral use (40.9 % reduction [95 %CI, 25.1-53.3]), and relevant healthcare costs (48.7 % reduction [95 %CI, 38.2-57.3]). Furthermore, infection prevention measures against COVID-19 were associated with additional level changes in varicella rates (57.2 % reduction [95 %CI, 44.5-67.1]), antiviral use (65.7 % reduction [59.7-70.8]), and healthcare costs (49.1 % [95 %CI, 32.7-61.6]). In contrast, the changes in incidence and healthcare costs for herpes zoster were relatively small, which showed 9.4 % elevated level change with a decreasing trend and 8.7 % reduced level change with a decreasing trend after the vaccine program and the COVID-19 pandemic. The cumulative incidence of herpes zoster in children born after 2014 was lower than that before 2014.

CONCLUSIONS

Varicella incidence and healthcare resource use were largely affected by the routine immunization program and infection prevention measures against COVID-19, while these impacts on herpes zoster were relatively small. Our study indicates that immunization and infection prevention measures largely changed pediatric infectious disease practices.

The Association between Varicella Vaccination and Herpes Zoster in Children: A Semi-National Retrospective Study

Varicella vaccination in children has been performed worldwide in recent years. Despite established effectiveness, many countries still do not routinely vaccinate children against varicella, probably due to concerns about complications, such as herpes zoster infection. We aimed to compare the herpes zoster incidence in children before and after implementing the mandatory varicella vaccine in Israel in 2008. As a secondary aim, we characterized several parameters, including age, sex, and ethnic sector among herpes zoster cases, and we evaluated the complication rate to identify data relevant to the immunization status of the pediatric population. A retrospective study was conducted between 2000 and 2021, including patients aged 0-18 years old in a large cohort in southern Israel. A time series analysis and complication rates evaluations were performed in the pre- and post-vaccination eras. A total of 109.24 herpes zoster cases per 100,000 population per year were diagnosed between 2000 and 2007 (pre-vaccination era), compared to 354.71 herpes zoster cases per 100,000 population per year diagnosed between 2008 and 2021 (post-vaccination era) (p < 0.001). No change in the complication rate was documented. Thus, we concluded that there is an association between the varicella vaccine implementation program and the increase in the rate of herpes-zoster occurrence without a concurrent negative contribution to herpes zoster-related morbidity.

Linear and non-linear combination forecasting model of varicella incidence in Chongqing

Varicella is a highly infectious contagious disease, and Chongqing is one of the high incidence areas in China. To understand the epidemic regularity and predict the epidemic trend of varicella is of great significance to the risk analysis and health resource allocation in the health sector. First, we used the ‘STL’ function to decompose the incidence of varicella to understand its trend and seasonality. Second, we established SARIMA model for linear fitting, and then took the residual of the SARIMA model as the sample to fit the LS-SVM model, to explain the non-linearity of the residuals. The monthly varicella incidence peaks in April to June and October to December. Mixed model was compared to SARIMA model, the prediction error of the hybrid model was smaller, and the RMSE and MAPE values of the hybrid model were 0.7525 and 0.0647, respectively, the mixed model had a better prediction effect. Based on the study, the incidence of varicella in Chongqing has an obvious seasonal trend, and a hybrid model can also predict the incidence of varicella well. Thus, hybrid model analysis is a feasible and simple method to predict varicella in Chongqing.