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Paredes MI, Ahmed N, Figgins M, Colizza V, Lemey P, McCrone JT, Müller N, Tran-Kiem C, Bedford T. Underdetected dispersal and extensive local transmission drove the 2022 mpox epidemic. Cell 2024; 187:1374-1386.e13. [PMID: 38428425 PMCID: PMC10962340 DOI: 10.1016/j.cell.2024.02.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/04/2023] [Revised: 12/15/2023] [Accepted: 02/02/2024] [Indexed: 03/03/2024]
Abstract
The World Health Organization declared mpox a public health emergency of international concern in July 2022. To investigate global mpox transmission and population-level changes associated with controlling spread, we built phylogeographic and phylodynamic models to analyze MPXV genomes from five global regions together with air traffic and epidemiological data. Our models reveal community transmission prior to detection, changes in case reporting throughout the epidemic, and a large degree of transmission heterogeneity. We find that viral introductions played a limited role in prolonging spread after initial dissemination, suggesting that travel bans would have had only a minor impact. We find that mpox transmission in North America began declining before more than 10% of high-risk individuals in the USA had vaccine-induced immunity. Our findings highlight the importance of broader routine specimen screening surveillance for emerging infectious diseases and of joint integration of genomic and epidemiological information for early outbreak control.
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Affiliation(s)
- Miguel I Paredes
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
| | - Nashwa Ahmed
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA; Molecular and Cellular Biology Program, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Marlin Figgins
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Vittoria Colizza
- INSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique IPLESP, Paris, France
| | - Philippe Lemey
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Rega Institute, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
| | - John T McCrone
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Nicola Müller
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Cécile Tran-Kiem
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Trevor Bedford
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA; Howard Hughes Medical Institute, Seattle, WA, USA
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He Y, Tang Y, Wang C, Zhou Z, Li W, Tian M. The Global Health Threat of Monkeypox Virus: Understanding Its Biology, Transmission, and Potential Therapeutic Interventions. Infect Drug Resist 2023; 16:7759-7766. [PMID: 38146310 PMCID: PMC10749784 DOI: 10.2147/idr.s438725] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/08/2023] [Accepted: 12/13/2023] [Indexed: 12/27/2023] Open
Abstract
Monkeypox virus (MPXV), a member of the Orthopoxvirus genus, shares its genus with Variola virus (VARV), the causative agent of smallpox, and Vaccinia virus (VACV), used for smallpox vaccination. While smallpox has been eradicated, MPXV and related poxviruses continue to pose a global health threat. Monkeypox (Mpox), similar in clinical presentation to smallpox but milder, is endemic in Central and West Africa. Sporadic outbreaks emphasize the potential for wider dissemination. Understanding their biology, transmission, immune evasion, and clinical features informs disease control strategies. The intersection of medical innovation and biotechnology with poxviruses underscores their importance in both disease and scientific advancement. Further research is essential to enhance prevention, management, and therapeutic interventions for these viruses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yan He
- Department of Infection Management, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital, Nanjing, Jiangsu, People’s Republic of China
| | - Ying Tang
- Department of Ultrasound Diagnostic, Children’s Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, People’s Republic of China
| | - Caiyun Wang
- Department of Respiratory, Children’s Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, People’s Republic of China
| | - Zilie Zhou
- Department of Respiratory, Children’s Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, People’s Republic of China
| | - Wei Li
- Department of Clinical Research, Children’s Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, People’s Republic of China
| | - Man Tian
- Department of Respiratory, Children’s Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, People’s Republic of China
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Paredes MI, Ahmed N, Figgins M, Colizza V, Lemey P, McCrone JT, Müller N, Tran-Kiem C, Bedford T. Early underdetected dissemination across countries followed by extensive local transmission propelled the 2022 mpox epidemic. medRxiv 2023:2023.07.27.23293266. [PMID: 37577709 PMCID: PMC10418578 DOI: 10.1101/2023.07.27.23293266] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 08/15/2023]
Abstract
The World Health Organization declared mpox a public health emergency of international concern in July 2022. To investigate global mpox transmission and population-level changes associated with controlling spread, we built phylogeographic and phylodynamic models to analyze MPXV genomes from five global regions together with air traffic and epidemiological data. Our models reveal community transmission prior to detection, changes in case-reporting throughout the epidemic, and a large degree of transmission heterogeneity. We find that viral introductions played a limited role in prolonging spread after initial dissemination, suggesting that travel bans would have had only a minor impact. We find that mpox transmission in North America began declining before more than 10% of high-risk individuals in the USA had vaccine-induced immunity. Our findings highlight the importance of broader routine specimen screening surveillance for emerging infectious diseases and of joint integration of genomic and epidemiological information for early outbreak control.
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Affiliation(s)
- Miguel I. Paredes
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Nashwa Ahmed
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
- Molecular and Cellular Biology Program, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Marlin Figgins
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
- Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Vittoria Colizza
- INSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d’Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique IPLESP, Paris, France
| | - Philippe Lemey
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Rega Institute, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
| | - John T. McCrone
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Nicola Müller
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Cécile Tran-Kiem
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Trevor Bedford
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
- Howard Hughes Medical Institute, Seattle, WA, USA
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Tovani-Palone MR, Doshi N, Pedersini P. Inequity in the global distribution of monkeypox vaccines. World J Clin Cases 2023; 11:4498-4503. [PMID: 37469745 PMCID: PMC10353500 DOI: 10.12998/wjcc.v11.i19.4498] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/28/2022] [Revised: 04/26/2023] [Accepted: 05/15/2023] [Indexed: 06/30/2023] Open
Abstract
Monkeypox (mpox) has been a public health emergency of international concern that emerged in mid-2022 and has spread to 110 countries. The clinical findings of the disease vary according to the seriousness of the cases. Although its case fatality risk has not been high, a significant percentage of patients require hospitalization. In this context, local initiatives were taken to extend the limited supply of vaccines against the disease; however, such measures have not been sufficient to contain the spread of cases and ensure an equitable distribution of health resources. As a result, endemic regions of low-income countries continue to have insufficient access to mpox vaccination. Despite this and considering the global scope of the disease, there is still little discussion in the literature about the difficulties in achieving adequate vaccination coverage rates for the target population of interest. In this article, we briefly discussed general aspects of the disease, including its surveillance, the current global context of challenges for mpox vaccination, and issues on global allocation of health resources as well as proposed related recommendations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone
- Department of Research Analytics, Saveetha Dental College and Hospitals, Saveetha Institute of Medical and Technical Sciences, Chennai 600077, India
| | - Neel Doshi
- Department of Medicine, Pravara Institute of Medical Sciences, Ahmednagar 413736, India
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