High-Efficiency Machine Learning Method for Identifying Foodborne Disease Outbreaks and Confounding Factors

Predicting Foodborne Disease Outbreaks with Food Safety Certifications: Econometric and Machine Learning Analyses

Since the late 1990s, food safety certification has emerged as a prominent and influential regulatory mechanism in both the private and public spheres of the contemporary agri-food system. Food safety standards protect consumers from foodborne illnesses and help producers avoid the massive economic losses associated with food safety breaches. We empirically examine the relationship between foodborne disease outbreaks and certification adoption by utilizing the data on food safety certification adoption in the United States and Europe from 2015 through 2020. In our regression models, food safety certification along with select economic variables such as gross domestic product are used to explain the number of illnesses caused by foodborne disease outbreaks. For the United States at the state level, we found that certifications to SQF, PrimusGFS, BRC, or FSSC 22000 are negatively associated with the number of foodborne illnesses. For the case of Europe at the country level, certifications to ISO 22000 or FSSC 22000 are negatively associated with the number of foodborne illnesses. We then proceed to use machine learning techniques to examine how well we can use food safety certification data to predict foodborne disease outbreaks. Applying several algorithms (ordinary least squares, multinomial, decision tree, and random forest) to the U.S. data, we found that our models with food safety certification adoption can predict the number of U.S. foodborne illnesses or deaths with a relatively high degree of precision (testing accuracy at around 70% or better). Feature importance analysis allows us to inspect the relative importance of each explanatory variable (or feature) for making accurate predictions of the illness or death numbers. Through ranking the importance of explanatory variables, our study reveals that certification information could be the second most important variable (after gross domestic product) contributing to explain foodborne disease outbreaks.

Evaluating the Spatial Risk of Bacterial Foodborne Diseases Using Vulnerability Assessment and Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression

Foodborne diseases are an increasing concern to public health; climate and socioeconomic factors influence bacterial foodborne disease outbreaks. We developed an “exposure–sensitivity–adaptability” vulnerability assessment framework to explore the spatial characteristics of multiple climatic and socioeconomic environments, and analyzed the risk of foodborne disease outbreaks in different vulnerable environments of Zhejiang Province, China. Global logistic regression (GLR) and geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR) models were combined to quantify the influence of selected variables on regional bacterial foodborne diseases and evaluate the potential risk. GLR results suggested that temperature, total precipitation, road density, construction area proportions, and gross domestic product (GDP) were positively correlated with foodborne diseases. GWLR results indicated that the strength and significance of these relationships varied locally, and the predicted risk map revealed that the risk of foodborne diseases caused by Vibrio parahaemolyticus was higher in urban areas (60.6%) than rural areas (20.1%). Finally, distance from the coastline was negatively correlated with predicted regional risks. This study provides a spatial perspective for the relevant departments to prevent and control foodborne diseases.

Antibacterial activities of polyphenols against foodborne pathogens and their application as antibacterial agents

Polyphenols are secondary metabolites produced in higher plants. They are known to possess various functional properties in the human body. Polyphenols also exhibit antibacterial activities against foodborne pathogens. Their antibacterial mechanism is based on inhibiting bacterial biofilm formation or inactivating enzymes. Food-derived polyphenols with such antibacterial activity are natural preservatives and can be used as an alternative to synthetic preservatives that can cause side effects, such as allergies, asthma, skin irritation, and cancer. Studies have reported that polyphenols have positive effects, such as decreasing harmful bacteria and increasing beneficial bacteria in the human gut microbiota. Polyphenols can also be used as natural antibacterial agents in food packaging system in the form of emitting sachets, absorbent pads, and edible coatings. We summarized the antibacterial activities, mechanisms and applications of polyphenols as antibacterial agents against foodborne bacteria.