Predicting the Distribution of Phlebotomus papatasi (Diptera: Psychodidae), the Primary Vector of Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis, in Golestan Province of Iran Using Ecological Niche Modeling: Comparison of MaxEnt and GARP Models

Transmission Risk Prediction and Evaluation of Mountain-Type Zoonotic Visceral Leishmaniasis in China Based on Climatic and Environmental Variables

With global warming and socioeconomic developments, there is a tendency toward the emergence and spread of mountain-type zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis (MT-ZVL) in China. Timely identification of the transmission risk and spread of MT-ZVL is, therefore, of great significance for effectively interrupting the spread of MT-ZVL and eliminating the disease. In this study, 26 environmental variables—namely, climatic, geographical, and 2 socioeconomic indicators were collected from regions where MT-ZVL patients were detected during the period from 2019 to 2021, to create 10 ecological niche models. The performance of these ecological niche models was evaluated using the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) and true skill statistic (TSS), and ensemble models were created to predict the transmission risk of MT-ZVL in China. All ten ecological niche models were effective at predicting the transmission risk of MT-ZVL in China, and there were significant differences in the mean AUC (H = 33.311, p < 0.05) and TSS values among these ten models (H = 26.344, p < 0.05). The random forest, maximum entropy, generalized boosted, and multivariate adaptive regression splines showed high performance at predicting the transmission risk of MT-ZVL (AUC > 0.95, TSS > 0.85). Ensemble models predicted a transmission risk of MT-ZVL in the provinces of Shanxi, Shaanxi, Henan, Gansu, Sichuan, and Hebei, which was centered in Shanxi Province and presented high spatial clustering characteristics. Multiple ensemble ecological niche models created based on climatic and environmental variables are effective at predicting the transmission risk of MT-ZVL in China. This risk is centered in Shanxi Province and tends towards gradual radiation dispersion to surrounding regions. Our results provide insights into MT-ZVL surveillance in regions at high risk of MT-ZVL.

Treatment Failure in Cutaneous Leishmaniasis Patients Referred to the School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences during 2008-2017

Background:

Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a vector borne disease predominantly found in tropical and subtropical countries, including Iran. For more than 6 decades, pentavalent antimonials have been used successfully worldwide for the treatment of leishmaniasis, but over the past few years, clinical resistance to these medications has increased. In this study, we evaluated CL patients who did not show any desirable responses to the anti-leishmanial treatment within a 10-year period (2008 to 2017).

Methods:

All patients from different parts of Iran suspected of having cutaneous leishmaniasis, who were referred to the laboratory of leishmaniosis in Tehran University of Medical Sciences from 2008–2017 were parasitological examined.

Results:

During this period, a total of 1480 suspected CL patients were referred to the laboratory of leishmaniosis. Samples from 655 patients (70.8%) suspected of having CL were positive microscopically. The failure rate in patients treated with anti-leishmaniasis medications for a minimum of three complete treatment periods was 1.83% (12 cases). There was no association between the number and size of skin lesions and patient characteristics. Also, the route of drug administration had no significant effect on the number and size of lesions.

Conclusion:

In the present study, treatment failure was found in some confirmed CL patients treated with meglumine antimoniate. Over the past few years, it seems that had been increased in resistance to these medications. So, a review of the correct implementation of the treatment protocol and/or a combination therapy may be helpful in preventing an increase in the rate of treatment failure.