AFP-L3 and DCP are superior to AFP in predicting waitlist dropout in HCC patients: Results of a prospective study

Three-Dimensional Structure of Novel Liver Cancer Biomarker Liver Cancer-Specific Serine Protease Inhibitor Kazal (LC-SPIK) and Its Performance in Clinical Diagnosis of Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC)

LC-SPIK is a liver cancer-specific isoform of Serine Protease Inhibitor Kazal and has been proposed as a new biomarker for the detection of HCC given its unique 3D structure, which differs from normal pancreatic SPIK. An ELISA technology based on its unique structure was developed to use LC-SPIK as an effective biomarker for the clinical diagnosis of HCC. AFP, the most widely used biomarker for HCC surveillance currently, suffers from poor clinical performance, especially in the detection of early-stage HCC. In one case-control study, which included 164 HCC patients and 324 controls, LC-SPIK had an AUC of 0.87 compared to only 0.70 for AFP in distinguishing HCC from liver disease controls (cirrhosis, HBV/HCV). LC-SPIK also performed significantly better than AFP for the 81 patients with early-stage HCC (BCLC stage 0 and A), with an AUC of 0.85 compared to only 0.61 for AFP. Cirrhosis is the major risk factor for HCC; about 80% of patients with newly diagnosed HCC have preexisting cirrhosis. LC-SPIK's clinical performance was also studied in HCC patients with viral and non-viral cirrhosis, including cirrhosis caused by metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) and alcoholic liver disease (ALD). In a total of 163 viral cirrhosis patients with 93 HCC patients (50 early-stage), LC-SPIK had an AUC of 0.85, while AFP had an AUC of 0.70. For patients with early-stage HCC, LC-SPIK had a similar AUC of 0.83, while AFP had an AUC of only 0.60. For 120 patients with nonviral cirrhosis, including 62 HCC (23 early-stage) patients, LC-SPIK had an AUC of 0.84, while AFP had an AUC of only 0.72. For the 23 patients with early-stage HCC, LC-SPIK had a similar AUC of 0.83, while the AUC for AFP decreased to 0.65. All these results suggest that LC-SPIK exhibits significantly better performance in the detection of HCC than AFP in all etiologies of liver diseases. In addition, LC-SPIK accurately detected the presence of HCC in 71-91% of HCC patients with false-negative AFP test results in viral-associated HCC and non-viral-associated HCC.

AFP-L3 and DCP strongly predict early hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after liver transplantation

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) predicts hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence after liver transplant (LT) but remains an imperfect biomarker. The role of DCP (des-gamma-carboxyprothrombin) and AFP-L3 (AFP bound to Lens culinaris agglutinin) in predicting HCC recurrence remains incompletely characterized. AFP-L3 and DCP could identify patients at high risk of post-transplant HCC recurrence and serve as liver transplant exclusion criteria to defer transplant until patients receive additional risk-reducing pre-transplant locoregional therapy.

METHODS

This prospective cohort study included consecutive patients with HCC who underwent LT (within or down-staged to Milan criteria) between 2017 and 2022. Pre-transplant AFP, AFP-L3, and DCP measurements were obtained. The primary endpoint was the ability of biomarkers to predict HCC recurrence-free survival.

RESULTS

This cohort included 285 patients with a median age of 67 (IQR 63-71). At LT, median biomarker values were AFP 5.0 ng/ml (IQR 3.0-12.1), AFP-L3 6.7% (0.5-13.2), and DCP 1.0 ng/ml (0.3-2.8). Most (94.7%) patients received pre-LT locoregional therapy. After a median post-LT follow-up of 3.1 years, HCC recurrence was observed in 18 (6.3%) patients. AFP-L3 and DCP outperformed AFP with C-statistics of 0.81 and 0.86 respectively, compared with 0.74 for AFP. A dual-biomarker combination of AFP-L3 ≥15% and DCP ≥7.5 predicted 61.1% of HCC recurrences, whereas HCC only recurred in 7 of 265 (2.6%) patients not meeting this threshold. The Kaplan-Meier recurrence-free survival rate at 3 years post-LT was 43.7% for patients with dual-positive biomarkers compared to 97.0% for all others (p <0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Dual-positivity for AFP-L3 ≥15% and DCP ≥7.5 strongly predicted post-LT HCC recurrence. This model could refine LT selection criteria and identify high-risk patients who require additional locoregional therapy prior to LT.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) is used to predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence after liver transplant, but it remains an imperfect biomarker. In this prospective study, the biomarkers DCP (des-gamma-carboxyprothrombin) and AFP-L3 (AFP bound to Lens culinaris agglutinin) strongly predicted early HCC recurrence and outperformed AFP. A dual-biomarker combination of AFP-L3 ≥15% and DCP ≥7.5 predicted the majority of recurrences and could be used to further refine liver transplant eligibility criteria.