A Peak Price Tracking-Based Learning System for Portfolio Selection

Multitrend Conditional Value at Risk for Portfolio Optimization

Trend representation has been attracting more and more attention recently in portfolio optimization (PO) via machine learning methods. It adopts concepts and phenomena from the field of empirical and behavioral finance when little prior knowledge is obtained or strict statistical assumptions cannot be guaranteed. It is used mostly in estimating the expected asset returns, but hardly in measuring risk. To fill this gap, we propose a novel multitrend conditional value at risk (MT-CVaR), which embeds multiple trends and their influences in CVaR. Besides, we propose a novel PO model with this MT-CVaR as the risk metric and then design a solving algorithm based on the interior point method to compute the portfolio. Extensive experiments on six benchmark datasets from diverse financial markets with different frequencies show that MT-CVaR achieves the state-of-the-art investing performance and risk management.

Bio-Inspired Machine Learning for Distributed Confidential Multi-Portfolio Selection Problem

The recently emerging multi-portfolio selection problem lacks a proper framework to ensure that client privacy and database secrecy remain intact. Since privacy is of major concern these days, in this paper, we propose a variant of Beetle Antennae Search (BAS) known as Distributed Beetle Antennae Search (DBAS) to optimize multi-portfolio selection problems without violating the privacy of individual portfolios. DBAS is a swarm-based optimization algorithm that solely shares the gradients of portfolios among the swarm without sharing private data or portfolio stock information. DBAS is a hybrid framework, and it inherits the swarm-like nature of the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm with the BAS updating criteria. It ensures a robust and fast optimization of the multi-portfolio selection problem whilst keeping the privacy and secrecy of each portfolio intact. Since multi-portfolio selection problems are a recent direction for the field, no work has been done concerning the privacy of the database nor the privacy of stock information of individual portfolios. To test the robustness of DBAS, simulations were conducted consisting of four categories of multi-portfolio problems, where in each category, three portfolios were selected. To achieve this, 200 days worth of real-world stock data were utilized from 25 NASDAQ stock companies. The simulation results prove that DBAS not only ensures portfolio privacy but is also efficient and robust in selecting optimal portfolios.

Uncertainty-Aware Portfolio Management With Risk-Sensitive Multiagent Network

As deep neural networks (DNNs) have gained considerable attention in recent years, there have been several cases applying DNNs to portfolio management (PM). Although some researchers have experimentally demonstrated its ability to make a profit, it is still insufficient to use in real situations because existing studies have failed to answer how risky investment decisions are. Furthermore, even though the objective of PM is to maximize returns within a risk tolerance, they overlook the predictive uncertainty of DNNs in the process of risk management. To overcome these limitations, we propose a novel framework called risk-sensitive multiagent network (RSMAN), which includes risk-sensitive agents (RSAs) and a risk adaptive portfolio generator (RAPG). Standard DNNs do not understand the risks of their decision, whereas RSA can take risk-sensitive decisions by estimating market uncertainty and parameter uncertainty. Acting as a trader, this agent is trained via reinforcement learning from dynamic trading simulations to estimate the distribution of reward and via unsupervised learning to assess parameter uncertainty without labeled data. We also present an RAPG that can generate a portfolio fitting the user's risk appetite without retraining by exploiting the estimated information from the RSAs. We tested our framework on the U.S. and Korean real financial markets to demonstrate the practicality of the RSMAN.

Radial Basis Functions With Adaptive Input and Composite Trend Representation for Portfolio Selection

We propose a set of novel radial basis functions with adaptive input and composite trend representation (AICTR) for portfolio selection (PS). Trend representation of asset price is one of the main information to be exploited in PS. However, most state-of-the-art trend representation-based systems exploit only one kind of trend information and lack effective mechanisms to construct a composite trend representation. The proposed system exploits a set of RBFs with multiple trend representations, which improves the effectiveness and robustness in price prediction. Moreover, the input of the RBFs automatically switches to the best trend representation according to the recent investing performance of different price predictions. We also propose a novel objective to combine these RBFs and select the portfolio. Extensive experiments on six benchmark data sets (including a new challenging data set that we propose) from different real-world stock markets indicate that the proposed RBFs effectively combine different trend representations and AICTR achieves state-of-the-art investing performance and risk control. Besides, AICTR withstands the reasonable transaction costs and runs fast; hence, it is applicable to real-world financial environments.