Linking Migration Intentions with Flows: Evidence and Potential Use

Surveys on migration aspirations, plans and intentions: a comprehensive overview

Survey data on migration aspirations, plans and intentions is important for understanding the drivers and dynamics of migration. Such data has been collected since the 1960s but has expanded massively in recent decades. This paper provides the first comprehensive overview of existing survey data in an inventory of 212 surveys with recorded metadata on geographic and temporal coverage, survey population, sample size, and other characteristics. 'A survey' is not always a clear-cut unit of analysis, but we adopted procedures that enable systematic comparisons, and identified surveys through systematic searches and follow-up investigation. The paper has three objectives. First, it facilitates reuse of survey data and secondary analysis, albeit with limitations in data access, which we document. Second, it helps consolidate a sprawling field and thereby contribute to methodological and theoretical strengthening. Third, it informs debates on the ethics, politics and biases of data collection by documenting broad patterns in the body of knowledge. The inventory of survey data on migration aspirations and related concepts gives migration researchers a new tool for locating existing data and strengthening the foundations for collecting new data.

Intention to Migrate Due to COVID-19: a Study for El Salvador

Economic and social conditions have deteriorated worldwide during the COVID-19 pandemic. Migration theory and international organizations indicate that these increasingly fragile social conditions represent powerful incentives to migrate. Normally, studies addressing international migration and COVID-19 focus on transit and destination countries, with substantially less literature centered on origin nations. Trying to close that gap, the present article aims to identify and quantify economic determinants that explain the intention of Salvadorians to migrate abroad. Using a probabilistic sample and a logistic model, a number of renowned economic variables for migration studies were used to investigate Salvadorian's intention to emigrate. Results demonstrated a stark reduction in migration intentions in 2020. Moreover, the risk of losing one's job is by far the most prominent factor explaining the intention to migrate. Other aspects, such as employment and salaries, also showed statistically significant values. Additionally, results report women being less likely to migrate and age to have a negligible effect. The text concludes by indicating some public initiatives that could be implemented to support people who choose to act upon their intentions and embark on emigration.

Explaining migration intention from selected psycho-social variables in South Wollo, Ethiopia

Migration has become one of the challenging global issues of the twenty-first century. Therefore, analyzing the intention to migrate is essential to develop clear strategies to manage actual migration. This research aimed to investigate emigration intention predictors (namely place attachment, attitude, national pride, subjective social norm, and perceived behavioral control) and the interaction effect of social networks between those predictors and migration intention. A sample of 701 high school students participated in the research. Exploratory Factor Analysis and Confirmatory Factor Analysis were employed to explore the dimension and loading of items respectively. To test the moderation effect of social networks on migration intention and the predictor variables, structural equation modeling was employed using Amos version 27. The findings indicated that Attitude, National pride, subjective social norm, and perceived behavioral control predict youths' emigration intention. The result also revealed that social network strengthens the negative correlation between place attachment and intention to migrate only if the individuals have a high social network. The social network also moderates the relationship between attitude and emigration intention.

Where Would Ukrainian Refugees Go if They Could Go Anywhere?

We present estimates of the number of refugees expected to flee Ukraine and to which countries they are expected to migrate based on migration preferences data from the Gallup World Poll (GWP). This is important in terms of both immediate refugee assistance efforts and long-term integration policies. Our key finding is that as many as 12 million people may want to leave Ukraine permanently and that refugee policies in potential destination countries are likely to have a substantial impact on the distribution of Ukrainian refugees between different countries. More specifically, international solidarity in response to the migration crisis would significantly reduce the refugee flows to European Union (EU) countries, incur a limited burden on non-EU countries, and at the same time, better take the preferences of the Ukrainians into account.

Distance-Dependent Migration Intention of Villagers: Comparative Study of Peri-Urban and Remote Villages in Indonesia

Rural-to-urban migration disturbs essential factors of rural development, including labor forces, land ownership, and food production. To avoid late responses to emigration, scholars have begun investigating earlier stages of rural emigration. However, prior studies have focused on a single spatial entity only while also leaning toward trends in developed countries. Therefore, this study fills gaps by focusing on the differences in migration intention between villages in less developed settings. In observing the differences, this research takes peri-urban and remote villages as cases located at different distances from their nearest urban destination. This study treats migration intention as the dependent variable while using single-indicator place attachment and multi-indicator information sources as the independent variables. This work applies the Mann–Whitney U, ANOVA, and Brown–Forsythe tests on three hypotheses. This research also uses SEM-PLS to investigate the correlation model of the observed variables for each case. The results show that information sources negatively affect migration intentions in peri-urban settings. Remote rural areas also show similar results for the information sources variable; however, place attachment in remote settings significantly contributes to migration intention. These results show that place attachment and information sources contribute differently, depending on the distance to the urban area. We argue that access to public services and infrastructure contributes to the results. The findings suggest that an increased availability of information sources impedes the formation of migration intentions. Thus, this study suggests the necessity of improving rural infrastructure and public services to improve information literacy. It helps the government control rural emigration while fulfilling its obligation for rural development. It also offers better rural livelihoods during the development progress, providing economic incentives for villagers to stay in villages.

Ethnic, Civic, and Global Identities as Predictors of Emigration Activity of Student Youth in Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia

The objective of this research is to assess the characteristics of the relationships between the cognitive and emotional components of ethnic, civic, and global identities with the emigration activity among students of Belarus (n=208), Kazakhstan (n=200), and Russia (n=250) aged 18 to 25 years. The assessment of emigration activity was carried out using six items. To measure identity types, we used the Questionnaire for assessing the positivity and uncertainty of ethnic identity by A.N. Tatarko and N.M. Lebedeva and the Identification with All Humanity Scale by S. McFarland in adaptation of T.A. Nestik. The negative assessment of one’s own ethnicity is a predictor to emigration intentions among Belarusian students. Students in Kazakhstan and Russia have emigration intentions connected with a positive attitude towards the global community of people and a negative attitude towards citizens of their countries. In addition, Russian students with a high level of emigration intentions have imprecise representations of their own ethnicity. Emigration behavior of Belarusian students have links with negative attitudes towards the citizens of their country and towards their own ethnic affiliation. In Russian students, this behavior is also associated with a negative attitude towards the citizens of their country, but combined with a positive attitude towards the global community of people. Kazakhstani students have no statistically significant links in this case. The results confirm the importance of taking into account the civic and sociocultural contexts when organizing activities to prevent the emigration behavior of youth.

The unintended consequences of US immigration enforcement policies

US immigration enforcement policy seeks to change the behaviors and views of not only individuals in the United States but also those of prospective migrants outside the United States. Yet we still know relatively little about the behavioral and attitudinal effects of US enforcement policy on the population abroad. This study uses a randomized experiment embedded in a nationally representative survey that was administered in El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Mexico to analyze the effects of US deterrence policies on individuals' migration intentions and their attitudes toward the US immigration system. The two policies that the current study examines are immigration detention and nonjudicial removals. The survey results provide no evidence that a heightened awareness of these US immigration enforcement policies affects individuals' intentions to migrate to the United States. But heightened awareness about the widespread use of immigration detention in the United States does negatively impact individuals' assessments about the procedural and outcome fairness of the US immigration system. These findings suggest that immigration detention may foster delegitimating beliefs about the US legal system without producing the intended deterrent effect.

International Migration and the (Un)happiness Push: Evidence from Polish Longitudinal Data

This article analyzes the impact of (un)happiness on the international migration decision. It uses a rich longitudinal household-level database, the Polish Social Diagnosis, to identify migration intentions, as well as subsequent actual migration, allowing us to overcome the issue of reverse causality present in previous studies of the nexus between happiness and migration. In addition, we assess the role of individual and household levels of happiness on migration behaviors and find that unhappy individuals from unhappy households are significantly more likely to declare their intentions to migrate abroad. In terms of actual migration, however, the unhappiness push significantly affects the odds of international migration only for selected subgroups, such as women and employed individuals. For other individuals, the unhappiness-induced migration plans remain mostly unrealized. Our article shows that push and pull factors, including happiness, might exert heterogenous effects on migration intentions and actual realizations. As a consequence, migration scholars should be careful when drawing conclusions on the determinants of actual migration behaviors by looking at determinants of migration intentions.

Migration Intentions and Alcohol Use Among Adolescents in West-Central Mexico

This study explores the association between migration intentions and alcohol use among west-central Mexico adolescents living in high migration communities. This study used the baseline data from the Family Migration and Early Life Outcomes (FAMELO) project (N = 1286), collected in 2018. We used multiple imputations to address missingness and propensity score matching to reduce the selection bias. We also conducted subgroup analyses to compare gender difference (i.e., boys vs. girls) on the relationship between migration intention and alcohol use. The findings show that for the whole sample, youth with migration intentions had significant higher odds (OR = 1.78; p = .010) of having a lifetime drinking experience when compared to youth who reported no interest in living abroad, but this association remained significant only for boys (OR = 2.14; p = .010). This study makes an important contribution to our understanding of the etiology of migration intentions and alcohol use for adolescents living in sending migration communities. The findings have specific alcohol prevention, policy, and future research implications in Mexico and the U.S.

Can Migrants’ Emigration Intentions Predict Their Actual Behaviors? Evidence from a Swiss Survey

In this paper, we use original linked data to better understand the relationship between remigration intentions and actual behaviors and, more specifically, to verify whether remigration intentions can predict migrants’ actual behaviors. To do so, we compare self-declared remigration intentions with actual departures during the 2 years following a survey. Then, we analyze to what extent the factors associated with both dimensions are similar. The results show that 96% of migrants who wanted to stay in Switzerland actually stayed and that 71% of those who wanted to leave the country actually left. Overall, intentions were a good predictor of behaviors, and the factors associated with remigration intentions and actual behaviors were almost the same. However, intentions reflected migrants’ personal feelings at the time of the survey and sometimes reflected their potential to remain in Switzerland from a legal point of view. Behaviors were more rational than intentions in that migrants’ reflections on their actual situations were more profound, and their choices to stay in Switzerland or to leave were thus influenced by rational elements such as their labor market situations or family constraints.

The Migration Intentions of Young Egyptians

This study examines the migration intentions of young people in Egypt before and after the 2011 revolution, driven by three sets of factors: (1) individual demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, (2) household characteristics, and (3) community characteristics and political and civic participation. Logistic regression models are applied to study the determinants of intentions to live, study, or work abroad among young Egyptians (defined as individuals aged 18 to 29), using data from the Survey of Young People in Egypt (SYPE) conducted in 2009 (N = 8488) and in 2014 (N = 5885). The surveys are nationally representative, covering all governorates in Egypt. The analysis indicates that respondents’ age, gender, marital status, and employment status play a significant role in shaping migration intentions. After the 2011 revolution, the effects are dependent upon economic and institutional conditions. The employment status affects the migration intention of young people in 2009; but the effects become insignificant in 2014. Moreover, respondents who have participated in political and voluntary activities are more likely to express migration intentions. Pollution levels in the community are also positively correlated with the intention to migrate. The results indicate that those who expressed migration intentions are a selective group in terms of demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. Our findings have policy relevance because knowledge and understanding of migration intentions and their determinants can be used to assess and develop scenarios about future migration.

Pull Factors and Migration Preferences: Evidence from the Middle East and North Africa

Which national characteristics do voluntary migrants prioritize when considering destinations? Although this question is salient for policymakers, extant studies face challenges when seeking to identify how various pull factors shape destination preferences. Surveys of migrants are typically conducted after they arrive, introducing selection bias and post-hoc reasoning. Moreover, desirable national characteristics tend to co-vary, implying that observed relationships with migration flows may be confounded. In this article, we identify the destination preferences of prospective migrants by drawing on a sample of 8,500 respondents from five sending states across the Middle East and North Africa. Prospective migrants completed a series of conjoint survey tasks in which they chose between two destinations with randomly varying characteristics. The results reveal a clear hierarchy of preferences, with prospective migrants placing the greatest priority on liberal democratic governance and employment prospects. The availability of welfare benefits acted as a secondary consideration, while geographic distance and co-ethnic stock did not strongly predict initial destination preferences. While the rank order of these considerations remains consistent across national samples, our results suggest that respondents from different economic and political backgrounds vary in how they navigate potential tradeoffs between national characteristics. These findings address post-arrival bias in extant studies by revealing prospective migrants’ preferences before they interact with the opportunity structures that facilitate and restrict entry into desirable destinations.