Development and validation of a machine learning algorithm-based risk prediction model of pressure injury in the intensive care unit

Implementable Prediction of Pressure Injuries in Hospitalized Adults: Model Development and Validation

Background

Numerous pressure injury prediction models have been developed using electronic health record data, yet hospital-acquired pressure injuries (HAPIs) are increasing, which demonstrates the critical challenge of implementing these models in routine care.

Objective

To help bridge the gap between development and implementation, we sought to create a model that was feasible, broadly applicable, dynamic, actionable, and rigorously validated and then compare its performance to usual care (ie, the Braden scale).

Methods

We extracted electronic health record data from 197,991 adult hospital admissions with 51 candidate features. For risk prediction and feature selection, we used logistic regression with a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) approach. To compare the model with usual care, we used the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC), Brier score, slope, intercept, and integrated calibration index. The model was validated using a temporally staggered cohort.

Results

A total of 5458 HAPIs were identified between January 2018 and July 2022. We determined 22 features were necessary to achieve a parsimonious and highly accurate model. The top 5 features included tracheostomy, edema, central line, first albumin measure, and age. Our model achieved higher discrimination than the Braden scale (AUC 0.897, 95% CI 0.893-0.901 vs AUC 0.798, 95% CI 0.791-0.803).

Conclusions

We developed and validated an accurate prediction model for HAPIs that surpassed the standard-of-care risk assessment and fulfilled necessary elements for implementation. Future work includes a pragmatic randomized trial to assess whether our model improves patient outcomes.

Artificial intelligence in wound care: diagnosis, assessment and treatment of hard-to-heal wounds: a narrative review

OBJECTIVE

The effective assessment of wounds, both acute and hard-to-heal, is an important component in the delivery by wound care practitioners of efficacious wound care for patients. Improved wound diagnosis, optimising wound treatment regimens, and enhanced prevention of wounds aid in providing patients with a better quality of life (QoL). There is significant potential for the use of artificial intelligence (AI) in health-related areas such as wound care. However, AI-based systems remain to be developed to a point where they can be used clinically to deliver high-quality wound care. We have carried out a narrative review of the development and use of AI in the diagnosis, assessment and treatment of hard-to-heal wounds. We retrieved 145 articles from several online databases and other online resources, and 81 of them were included in this narrative review. Our review shows that AI application in wound care offers benefits in the assessment/diagnosis, monitoring and treatment of acute and hard-to-heal wounds. As well as offering patients the potential of improved QoL, AI may also enable better use of healthcare resources.

One Month Prediction of Pressure Ulcers in Nursing Home Residents with Bayesian Networks

OBJECTIVES

Pressure ulcers (PUs) are a common and avoidable condition among residents of nursing homes, and their consequences are severe. Reliable and simple identification of high-risk residents is a major challenge for prevention. Available tools like the Braden and Norton scale have imperfect predictive performance. The objective is to predict the occurrence of PUs in nursing home residents from electronic health record (EHR) data.

DESIGN

Longitudinal retrospective nested case-control study.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

EHR database of French nursing homes from 2013 to 2022.

METHODS

Residents who suffered from PUs were cases and those who did not were controls. For cases, we analyzed the data available in their EHR 1 month before the occurrence of the first PU. For controls, we used available data 1 month before an index date adjusted on the delays of PU onset. We conducted a Bayesian network (BN) analysis, an explainable machine learning method, using 136 input variables of potential medical interest determined with experts. To validate the model, we used scores, features selection, and explainability tools such as Shapley values.

RESULTS

Among 58,368 residents analyzed, 29% suffered from PUs during their stay. The obtained BN model predicts the occurrence of a PU at a 1-month horizon with a sensitivity of 0.94 (±0.01), a precision of 0.32 (±0.01) and an area under the curve of 0.69 (±0.02). It selects 3 variables: length of stay, delay since last hospitalization, and dependence for transfer. This BN model is suitable and simpler than models provided by other machine learning methods.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

One-month prediction for incident PU is possible in nursing home residents from their EHR data. The study paves the way for the development of a predictive tool fueled by routinely collected data that do not require additional work from health care professionals, thereby opening a new preventive strategy for PUs.

Machine learning-based prediction models for pressure injury: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Despite the fact that machine learning (ML) algorithms to construct predictive models for pressure injury development are widely reported, the performance of the model remains unknown. The goal of the review was to systematically appraise the performance of ML models in predicting pressure injury. PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, CINAHL, Grey literature and other databases were systematically searched. Original journal papers were included which met the inclusion criteria. The methodological quality was assessed independently by two reviewers using the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST). Meta-analysis was performed with Metadisc software, with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, sensitivity and specificity as effect measures. Chi-squared and I2 tests were used to assess the heterogeneity. A total of 18 studies were included for the narrative review, and 14 of them were eligible for meta-analysis. The models achieved excellent pooled AUC of 0.94, sensitivity of 0.79 (95% CI [0.78-0.80]) and specificity of 0.87 (95% CI [0.88-0.87]). Meta-regressions did not provide evidence that model performance varied by data or model types. The present findings indicate that ML models show an outstanding performance in predicting pressure injury. However, good-quality studies should be conducted to verify our results and confirm the clinical value of ML in pressure injury development.

Recent advancement in integrating artificial intelligence and information technology with real-world data for clinical decision-making in China: A scoping review

OBJECTIVE

Striking innovations and advancements have been achieved with the use of artificial intelligence and healthcare information technology being integrated into clinical real-world data. The current scoping review aimed to provide an overview of the current status of artificial intelligence-/information technology-based clinical decision support tools in China.

METHODS

PubMed/MEDLINE, Embase, China National Knowledge Internet, and Wanfang data were searched for both English and Chinese literature. The gray literature search was conducted for commercially available tools. Original studies that focused on clinical decision support tools driven by artificial intelligence or information technology in China and were published between 2010 and February 2022 were included. Information extracted from each article was further synthesized by themes based on three types of clinical decision-making.

RESULTS

A total of 37 peer-reviewed publications and 13 commercially available tools were included in the final analysis. Among them, 32.0% were developed for disease diagnosis, 54.0% for risk prediction and classification, and 14.0% for disease management. Chronic diseases were the most popular therapeutic areas of exploration, with particular emphasis on cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases. Single-center electronic medical records were the mainstream data sources leveraged to inform clinical decision-making, with internal validation being predominately used for model evaluation.

CONCLUSIONS

To effectively promote the extensive use of real-world data and drive a paradigm shift in clinical decision-making in China, multidisciplinary collaboration of key stakeholders is urgently needed.

Past, present, and future of global research on artificial intelligence applications in dermatology: A bibliometric analysis

In recent decades, artificial intelligence (AI) has played an increasingly important role in medicine, including dermatology. Worldwide, numerous studies have reported on AI applications in dermatology, rapidly increasing interest in this field. However, no bibliometric studies have been conducted to evaluate the past, present, or future of this topic. This study aimed to illustrate past and present research and outline future directions for global research on AI applications in dermatology using bibliometric analysis. We conducted an online search of the Web of Science Core Collection database to identify scientific papers on AI applications in dermatology. The bibliometric metadata of each selected paper were extracted, analyzed, and visualized using VOS viewer and Cite Space. A total of 406 papers, comprising 8 randomized controlled trials and 20 prospective studies, were deemed eligible for inclusion. The United States had the highest number of papers (n = 166). The University of California System (n = 24) and Allan C. Halpern (n = 11) were the institution and author with the highest number of papers, respectively. Based on keyword co-occurrence analysis, the studies were categorized into 9 distinct clusters, with clusters 2, 3, and 7 containing keywords with the latest average publication year. Wound progression prediction using machine learning, the integration of AI into teledermatology, and applications of the algorithms in skin diseases, are the current research priorities and will remain future research aims in this field.

Systematic Review for Risks of Pressure Injury and Prediction Models Using Machine Learning Algorithms

Pressure injuries are increasing worldwide, and there has been no significant improvement in preventing them. This study is aimed at reviewing and evaluating the studies related to the prediction model to identify the risks of pressure injuries in adult hospitalized patients using machine learning algorithms. In addition, it provides evidence that the prediction models identified the risks of pressure injuries earlier. The systematic review has been utilized to review the articles that discussed constructing a prediction model of pressure injuries using machine learning in hospitalized adult patients. The search was conducted in the databases Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHIL), PubMed, Science Direct, the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), Cochrane, and Google Scholar. The inclusion criteria included studies constructing a prediction model for adult hospitalized patients. Twenty-seven articles were included in the study. The defects in the current method of identifying risks of pressure injury led health scientists and nursing leaders to look for a new methodology that helps identify all risk factors and predict pressure injury earlier, before the skin changes or harms the patients. The paper critically analyzes the current prediction models and guides future directions and motivations.

Leveraging artificial intelligence and decision support systems in hospital-acquired pressure injuries prediction: A comprehensive review

BACKGROUND

Hospital-acquired pressure injuries (HAPIs) constitute a significant challenge harming thousands of people worldwide yearly. While various tools and methods are used to identify pressure injuries, artificial intelligence (AI) and decision support systems (DSS) can help to reduce HAPIs risks by proactively identifying patients at risk and preventing them before harming patients.

OBJECTIVE

This paper comprehensively reviews AI and DSS applications for HAPIs prediction using Electronic Health Records (EHR), including a systematic literature review and bibliometric analysis.

METHODS

A systematic literature review was conducted through PRISMA and bibliometric analysis. In February 2023, the search was performed using four electronic databases: SCOPIS, PubMed, EBSCO, and PMCID. Articles on using AI and DSS in the management of PIs were included.

RESULTS

The search approach yielded 319 articles, 39 of which have been included and classified into 27 AI-related and 12 DSS-related categories. The years of publication varied from 2006 to 2023, with 40% of the studies taking place in the US. Most studies focused on using AI algorithms or DSS for HAPIs prediction in inpatient units using various types of data such as electronic health records, PI assessment scales, and expert knowledge-based and environmental data to identify the risk factors associated with HAPIs development.

CONCLUSIONS

There is insufficient evidence in the existing literature concerning the real impact of AI or DSS on making decisions for HAPIs treatment or prevention. Most studies reviewed are solely hypothetical and retrospective prediction models, with no actual application in healthcare settings. The accuracy rates, prediction results, and intervention procedures suggested based on the prediction, on the other hand, should inspire researchers to combine both approaches with larger-scale data to bring a new venue for HAPIs prevention and to investigate and adopt the suggested solutions to the existing gaps in AI and DSS prediction methods.

Application of Artificial Intelligence Methodologies to Chronic Wound Care and Management: A Scoping Review

Significance: As the number of hard-to-heal wound cases rises with the aging of the population and the spread of chronic diseases, health care professionals struggle to provide safe and effective care to all their patients simultaneously. This study aimed at providing an in-depth overview of the relevant methodologies of artificial intelligence (AI) and their potential implementation to support these growing needs of wound care and management. Recent Advances: MEDLINE, Compendex, Scopus, Web of Science, and IEEE databases were all searched for new AI methods or novel uses of existing AI methods for the diagnosis or management of hard-to-heal wounds. We only included English peer-reviewed original articles, conference proceedings, published patent applications, or granted patents (not older than 2010) where the performance of the utilized AI algorithms was reported. Based on these criteria, a total of 75 studies were eligible for inclusion. These varied by the type of the utilized AI methodology, the wound type, the medical record/database configuration, and the research goal. Critical Issues: AI methodologies appear to have a strong positive impact and prospects in the wound care and management arena. Another important development that emerged from the findings is AI-based remote consultation systems utilizing smartphones and tablets for data collection and connectivity. Future Directions: The implementation of machine-learning algorithms in the diagnosis and managements of hard-to-heal wounds is a promising approach for improving the wound care delivered to hospitalized patients, while allowing health care professionals to manage their working time more efficiently.

An Integrated System of Braden Scale and Random Forest Using Real-Time Diagnoses to Predict When Hospital-Acquired Pressure Injuries (Bedsores) Occur

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Bedsores/Pressure Injuries (PIs) are the second most common diagnosis in healthcare system billing records in the United States and account for 60,000 deaths annually. Hospital-Acquired Pressure Injuries (HAPIs) are one classification of PIs and indicate injuries that occurred while the patient was cared for within the hospital. Until now, all studies have predicted who will develop HAPI using classic machine algorithms, which provides incomplete information for the clinical team. Knowing who will develop HAPI does not help differentiate at which point those predicted patients will develop HAPIs; no studies have investigated when HAPI develops for predicted at-risk patients. This research aims to develop a hybrid system of Random Forest (RF) and Braden Scale to predict HAPI time by considering the changes in patients' diagnoses from admission until HAPI occurrence.

METHODS

Real-time diagnoses and risk factors were collected daily for 485 patients from admission until HAPI occurrence, which resulted in 4619 records. Then for each record, HAPI time was calculated from the day of diagnosis until HAPI occurrence. Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) selected the best factors among the 60 factors. The dataset was separated into 80% training (10-fold cross-validation) and 20% testing. Grid Search (GS) with RF (GS-RF) was adopted to predict HAPI time using collected risk factors, including Braden Scale. Then, the proposed model was compared with the seven most common algorithms used to predict HAPI; each was replicated for 50 different experiments.

RESULTS

GS-RF achieved the best Area Under the Curve (AUC) (91.20 ± 0.26) and Geometric Mean (G-mean) (91.17 ± 0.26) compared to the seven algorithms. RFE selected 43 factors. The most dominant interactable risk factors in predicting HAPI time were visiting ICU during hospitalization, Braden subscales, BMI, Stimuli Anesthesia, patient refusal to change position, and another lab diagnosis.

CONCLUSION

Identifying when the patient is likely to develop HAPI can target early intervention when it is needed most and reduces unnecessary burden on patients and care teams when patients are at lower risk, which further individualizes the plan of care.

Machine Learning Techniques, Applications, and Potential Future Opportunities in Pressure Injuries (Bedsores) Management: A Systematic Review

Pressure Injuries (PI) are one of the most common health conditions in the United States. Most acute or long-term care patients are at risk of developing PI. Machine Learning (ML) has been utilized to manage patients with PI, in which one systematic review describes how ML is used in PI management in 32 studies. This research, different from the previous systematic review, summarizes the previous contributions of ML in PI from January 2007 to July 2022, categorizes the studies according to medical specialties, analyzes gaps, and identifies opportunities for future research directions. PRISMA guidelines were adopted using the four most common databases (PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, and Science Direct) and other resources, which result in 90 eligible studies. The reviewed articles are divided into three categories based on PI time of occurrence: before occurrence (48%); at time of occurrence (16%); and after occurrence (36%). Each category is further broken down into sub-fields based on medical specialties, which result in sixteen specialties. Each specialty is analyzed in terms of methods, inputs, and outputs. The most relevant and potentially useful applications and methods in PI management are outlined and discussed. This includes deep learning techniques and hybrid models, integration of existing risk assessment tools with ML that leads to a partnership between provider assessment and patients' Electronic Health Records (EHR).

An Integrated System of Multifaceted Machine Learning Models to Predict If and When Hospital-Acquired Pressure Injuries (Bedsores) Occur

Hospital-Acquired Pressure Injury (HAPI), known as bedsore or decubitus ulcer, is one of the most common health conditions in the United States. Machine learning has been used to predict HAPI. This is insufficient information for the clinical team because knowing who would develop HAPI in the future does not help differentiate the severity of those predicted cases. This research develops an integrated system of multifaceted machine learning models to predict if and when HAPI occurs. Phase 1 integrates Genetic Algorithm with Cost-Sensitive Support Vector Machine (GA-CS-SVM) to handle the high imbalance HAPI dataset to predict if patients will develop HAPI. Phase 2 adopts Grid Search with SVM (GS-SVM) to predict when HAPI will occur for at-risk patients. This helps to prioritize who is at the highest risk and when that risk will be highest. The performance of the developed models is compared with state-of-the-art models in the literature. GA-CS-SVM achieved the best Area Under the Curve (AUC) (75.79 ± 0.58) and G-mean (75.73 ± 0.59), while GS-SVM achieved the best AUC (75.06) and G-mean (75.06). The research outcomes will help prioritize at-risk patients, allocate targeted resources and aid with better medical staff planning to provide intervention to those patients.

A Hybrid System of Braden Scale and Machine Learning to Predict Hospital-Acquired Pressure Injuries (Bedsores): A Retrospective Observational Cohort Study

Background: The Braden Scale is commonly used to determine Hospital-Acquired Pressure Injuries (HAPI). However, the volume of patients who are identified as being at risk stretches already limited resources, and caregivers are limited by the number of factors that can reasonably assess during patient care. In the last decade, machine learning techniques have been used to predict HAPI by utilizing related risk factors. Nevertheless, none of these studies consider the change in patient status from admission until discharge. Objectives: To develop an integrated system of Braden and machine learning to predict HAPI and assist with resource allocation for early interventions. The proposed approach captures the change in patients' risk by assessing factors three times across hospitalization. Design: Retrospective observational cohort study. Setting(s): This research was conducted at ChristianaCare hospital in Delaware, United States. Participants: Patients discharged between May 2020 and February 2022. Patients with HAPI were identified from Nursing documents (N = 15,889). Methods: Support Vector Machine (SVM) was adopted to predict patients' risk for developing HAPI using multiple risk factors in addition to Braden. Multiple performance metrics were used to compare the results of the integrated system versus Braden alone. Results: The HAPI rate is 3%. The integrated system achieved better sensitivity (74.29 ± 1.23) and detection prevalence (24.27 ± 0.16) than the Braden scale alone (sensitivity (66.90 ± 4.66) and detection prevalence (41.96 ± 1.35)). The most important risk factors to predict HAPI were Braden sub-factors, overall Braden, visiting ICU during hospitalization, and Glasgow coma score. Conclusions: The integrated system which combines SVM with Braden offers better performance than Braden and reduces the number of patients identified as at-risk. Furthermore, it allows for better allocation of resources to high-risk patients. It will result in cost savings and better utilization of resources. Relevance to clinical practice: The developed model provides an automated system to predict HAPI patients in real time and allows for ongoing intervention for patients identified as at-risk. Moreover, the integrated system is used to determine the number of nurses needed for early interventions. Reporting Method: EQUATOR guidelines (TRIPOD) were adopted in this research to develop the prediction model. Patient or Public Contribution: This research was based on a secondary analysis of patients' Electronic Health Records. The dataset was de-identified and patient identifiers were removed before processing and modeling.