Uncertainty and variation in indirect exposure assessments: an analysis of exposure to tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin from a beef consumption pathway

Separation of uncertainty and interindividual variability in human exposure modeling

The NORMTOX model predicts the lifetime-averaged exposure to contaminants through multiple environmental media, that is, food, air, soil, drinking and surface water. The model was developed to test the coherence of Dutch environmental quality objectives (EQOs). A set of EQOs is called coherent if simultaneous exposure to different environmental media that are all polluted up to their respective EQOs does not result in exceeding the acceptable or tolerable daily intake (ADI or TDI). Aim of the present study is to separate the impact of uncertainty and interindividual variability in coherence predictions with the NORMTOX model. The method is illustrated in a case study for chlorfenvinphos, mercury and nitrate. First, ANOVA was used to calculate interindividual variability in input parameters. Second, nested Monte Carlo simulation was used to propagate uncertainty and interindividual variability separately. Lifetime-averaged exposure to chlorfenvinphos, mercury and nitrate was modeled for the Dutch population. Output distributions specified the population fraction at risk, due to a particular exposure, and the reliability of this risk. From the case study, it was obtained that at lifelong exposure to all media polluted up to their standard, 100% of the Dutch population exceeds the ADI for chlorfenvinphos, 15% for mercury and 0% for nitrate. Variance in exposure to chlorfenvinphos, mercury and nitrate is mostly caused by interindividual variability instead of true uncertainty. It is concluded that the likelihood that ADIs of chlorfenvinphos and mercury will be exceeded should be further explored. If exceeding is likely, decision makers should focus on identification of high-risk subpopulations, rather than on additional research to obtain more accurate estimates for particular parameters.

Applicability of a neuroprobabilistic integral risk index for the environmental management of polluted areas: a case study

Recently, we developed a GIS-Integrated Integral Risk Index (IRI) to assess human health risks in areas with presence of environmental pollutants. Contaminants were previously ranked by applying a self-organizing map (SOM) to their characteristics of persistence, bioaccumulation, and toxicity in order to obtain the Hazard Index (HI). In the present study, the original IRI was substantially improved by allowing the entrance of probabilistic data. A neuroprobabilistic HI was developed by combining SOM and Monte Carlo analysis. In general terms, the deterministic and probabilistic HIs followed a similar pattern: polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and light polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were the pollutants showing the highest and lowest values of HI, respectively. However, the bioaccumulation value of heavy metals notably increased after considering a probability density function to explain the bioaccumulation factor. To check its applicability, a case study was investigated. The probabilistic integral risk was calculated in the chemical/petrochemical industrial area of Tarragona (Catalonia, Spain), where an environmental program has been carried out since 2002. The risk change between 2002 and 2005 was evaluated on the basis of probabilistic data of the levels of various pollutants in soils. The results indicated that the risk of the chemicals under study did not follow a homogeneous tendency. However, the current levels of pollution do not mean a relevant source of health risks for the local population. Moreover, the neuroprobabilistic HI seems to be an adequate tool to be taken into account in risk assessment processes.

A conceptual framework for modeling aggregate and cumulative exposures to chemicals

Computer simulation programs have been identified as useful tools for characterizing uncertainty and variability in longitudinal exposures to multiple sources by multiple routes of exposures. This paper provides a conceptual framework for such programs that separates and appropriately models the processes that determine uncertainty, inter- and intraindividual variability, as well as the processes that determine the relationships between the individuals and sources of exposure. The framework is based on a series of four nested loops. These are: the exposure event loop that models the route-specific doses to a person from one or more sources at one point in time; the time step loop that moves a person through time updating the sources and the person's characteristics, the interindividual variation loop that determines the initial characteristics of each person modeled, and finally the uncertainty loop that characterizes the uncertainty from model and parameter uncertainties. This framework provides a flexible and internally consistent approach for the design of simulation software.

Illustration of sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

A sequence of linear, monotonic, and nonmonotonic test problems is used to illustrate sampling-based uncertainty and sensitivity analysis procedures. Uncertainty results obtained with replicated random and Latin hypercube samples are compared, with the Latin hypercube samples tending to produce more stable results than the random samples. Sensitivity results obtained with the following procedures and/or measures are illustrated and compared: correlation coefficients (CCs), rank correlation coefficients (RCCs), common means (CMNs), common locations (CLs), common medians (CMDs), statistical independence (SI), standardized regression coefficients (SRCs), partial correlation coefficients (PCCs), standardized rank regression coefficients (SRRCs), partial rank correlation coefficients (PRCCs), stepwise regression analysis with raw and rank-transformed data, and examination of scatter plots. The effectiveness of a given procedure and/or measure depends on the characteristics of the individual test problems, with (1) linear measures (i.e., CCs, PCCs, SRCs) performing well on the linear test problems, (2) measures based on rank transforms (i.e., RCCs, PRCCs, SRRCs) performing well on the monotonic test problems, and (3) measures predicated on searches for nonrandom patterns (i.e., CMNs, CLs, CMDs, SI) performing well on the nonmonotonic test problems.

Importance of uncertainty and variability to predicted risks from trophic transfer of PCBs in dredged sediments

Biomagnification of organochlorine and other persistent organic contaminants by higher trophic level organisms represents one of the most significant sources of uncertainty and variability in evaluating potential risks associated with disposal of dredged materials. While it is important to distinguish between population variability (e.g., true population heterogeneity in fish weight, and lipid content) and uncertainty (e.g., measurement error), they can be operationally difficult to define separately in probabilistic estimates of human health and ecological risk. We propose a disaggregation of uncertain and variable parameters based on: (1) availability of supporting data; (2) the specific management and regulatory context (in this case, of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers/U.S. Environmental Protection Agency tiered approach to dredged material management); and (3) professional judgment and experience in conducting probabilistic risk assessments. We describe and quantitatively evaluate several sources of uncertainty and variability in estimating risk to human health from trophic transfer of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) using a case study of sediments obtained from the New York-New Jersey Harbor and being evaluated for disposal at an open water off-shore disposal site within the northeast region. The estimates of PCB concentrations in fish and dietary doses of PCBs to humans ingesting fish are expressed as distributions of values, of which the arithmetic mean or mode represents a particular fractile. The distribution of risk values is obtained using a food chain biomagnification model developed by Gobas by specifying distributions for input parameters disaggregated to represent either uncertainty or variability. Only those sources of uncertainty that could be quantified were included in the analysis. Results for several different two-dimensional Latin Hypercube analyses are provided to evaluate the influence of the uncertain versus variable disaggregation of model parameters. The analysis suggests that variability in human exposure parameters is greater than the uncertainty bounds on any particular fractile, given the described assumptions.