Has Gavi lived up to its promise? Quasi-experimental evidence on country immunisation rates and child mortality

The role of global health partnerships in vaccine equity: A scoping review

The emergence of global health partnerships (GHPs) towards the end of the twentieth century reflected concerns about slow progress in access to essential medicines, including vaccines. These partnerships bring together governments, private philanthropic foundations, NGOs, and international agencies. Those in the vaccine field seek to incentivise the development and manufacture of new vaccines, raise funds to pay for them and develop and support systems to deliver them to those in need. These activities became more critical during the COVID-19 pandemic, with the COVAX Facility Initiative promoting global vaccine equity. This review identifies lessons from previous experiences with GHPs. Findings contribute to understanding the emergence of GHPs, the mechanisms they leverage to support global access to vaccines, and the inherent challenges associated with their implementation. Using Arksey and O'Malley's method, we conducted a scoping review to identify and synthesise relevant articles. We analysed data thematically to identify barriers and opportunities for success. We included 68 eligible articles of 3,215 screened. Most (65 [95%]) were discussion or review articles describing partnerships or programmes they supported, and three (5%) were commentaries. Emerging themes included policy responses (e.g., immunisation mandates), different forms of partnerships arising in vaccine innovation (e.g., product development partnerships, public-private partnerships for access), and influence on global governance decision-making processes (e.g., the rising influence of foundations, diminishing authority of WHO, lack of accountability and transparency, creation of disease silos). If global health partnerships are to maximise their contributions, they should: (1) increase transparency, especially regarding their impacts; (2) address the need for health systems strengthening; and (3) address disincentives for cooperative vaccine research and development partnerships and encourage expansion of manufacturing capacity in low and middle-income countries.

Evolution in key indicators of maternal and child health across the wealth gradient in 41 sub-Saharan African countries, 1986-2019

BACKGROUND

Aggregate trends can be useful for summarizing large amounts of information, but this can obscure important distributional aspects. Some population subgroups can be worse off even as averages climb, for example. Distributional information can identify health inequalities, which is essential to understanding their drivers and possible remedies.

METHODS

Using publicly available Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data from 41 sub-Saharan African countries from 1986 to 2019, we analyzed changes in coverage for eight key maternal and child health indicators: first dose of measles vaccine (MCV1); Diphtheria-Pertussis-Tetanus (DPT) first dose (DPT1); DPT third dose (DPT3); care-seeking for diarrhea, acute respiratory infections (ARI), or fever; skilled birth attendance (SBA); and having four antenatal care (ANC) visits. To evaluate whether coverage diverged or converged over time across the wealth gradient, we computed several dispersion metrics including the coefficient of variation across wealth quintiles. Slopes and 5-year moving averages were computed to identify overall long-term trends.

RESULTS

Average coverage increased for all quintiles and indicators, although the range and the speed at which they increased varied widely. There were small changes in the wealth-related gap for SBA, ANC, and fever. The wealth-related gap of vaccination-related indicators (DPT1, DPT3, MCV1) decreased over time. Compared to 2017, the wealth-gap between richest and poorest quintiles in 1995 was 7 percentage points larger for ANC and 17 percentage points larger for measles vaccination.

CONCLUSIONS

Maternal and child health indicators show progress, but the distributional effects show differential evolutions in inequalities. Several reasons may explain why countries had smaller wealth-related gap trends in vaccination-related indicators compared to others. In addition to service delivery differences, we hypothesize that the allocation of development assistance for health, the prioritization of vaccine-preventable diseases on the global agenda, and indirect effects of structural adjustment programs on health system-related indicators might have played a role.

Evaluating Country Performance After Transitioning From Gavi Assistance: An Applied Synthetic Control Analysis

INTRODUCTION

Over the past decade, international development assistance for health has slowed. As donors seek to increase domestic cofinancing and ultimately transition countries from donor aid dependence, COVID-19 has severely constrained public budgets. The evaluation of sustainability and longer-term impacts of donor withdrawal is increasingly important. We assess vaccination coverage and post-neonatal mortality to estimate country performance of these outcomes among countries that no longer received assistance from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance (Gavi) between 2000 and 2018.

METHODS

Using data from all countries receiving Gavi support between 2000 and 2020, we employed a synthetic control method to generate a pre-transition counterfactual with the same characteristics as the observation of interest to predict a future that empirically never existed. The synthetic unit is constructed from the weighted average of other units with good fit to the unit of interest before transition but did not transition.

RESULTS

We found substantial heterogeneity after transitioning from Gavi assistance. China, Guyana, and Turkmenistan overperformed their expected coverage rates; Albania, Bhutan, China, Guyana, and Turkmenistan maintained coverage over 90%; and Bosnia and Herzegovina and Ukraine reported precipitous drop-offs that fell well below their synthetic controls. We also observed a vaccination coverage decline in 2020 for several countries after transitioning and most synthetic controls, which we attribute to COVID-19-related service disruptions.

CONCLUSIONS

We recommend that Gavi adjust its transition model to systematically assess contextual externalities and risk. In addition, countries that no longer receive Gavi assistance can leverage technical assistance and communities of practice to mutually assist each other and other countries advancing toward transition. This could also foster intracountry accountability after transition. We also recommend that Gavi systematize post-transition assessments and evaluations that leverage the expertise and experience of graduated countries to encourage cross-learning.

Saving children's lives through interventions: a quasi-experimental analysis of GAVI

This study evaluates the impact of the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI) on children's health outcomes in developing countries. Using a difference-in-differences identification strategy, we find that GAVI has reduced neonatal, infant and under-five mortality rates. The impact of GAVI on children's health outcomes is larger in countries with lower per capita income. Our findings underscore the relevance of health interventions in improving children's health outcomes in developing economies.

Estimated public health impact of human rotavirus vaccine (HRV) and pneumococcal polysaccharide protein D-conjugate vaccine (PHiD-CV) on child morbidity and mortality in Gavi-supported countries

Vaccine impact models against rotavirus disease (RD) and pneumococcal disease (PD) in low- and middle-income countries assume vaccine coverage based on other vaccines. We propose to assess the impact on severe disease cases and deaths avoided based on vaccine doses delivered by one manufacturer to Gavi-supported countries. From the number of human rotavirus vaccine (HRV) and pneumococcal polysaccharide protein D-conjugate vaccine (PHiD-CV) doses delivered, we estimated the averted burden of disease 1) in a specific year and 2) for all children vaccinated during the study period followed-up until 5 years (y) of age. Uncertainty of the estimated impact was assessed in a probabilistic sensitivity analysis using Monte-Carlo simulations to provide 95% confidence intervals. From 2009 to 2019, approximately 143 million children received HRV in 57 Gavi-supported countries, avoiding an estimated 18.7 million severe RD cases and 153,000, deaths. From 2011 to 2019, approximately 146 million children received PHiD-CV in 36 countries, avoiding an estimated 5.0 million severe PD cases and 587,000 deaths. The number of severe cases and deaths averted for all children vaccinated during the study period until 5 years of age were about 23.2 million and 190,000, respectively, for HRV, and 6.6 million and 749,000, respectively, for PHiD-CV. Models based on doses delivered help to assess the impact of vaccination, plan vaccination programs and understand public health benefits. In 2019, HRV and PHiD-CV doses delivered over a 5-y period may have, on average, averted nine severe disease cases every minute and one child death every 4 min.

Pursuing health systems strengthening through disease-specific programme grants: experiences in Tanzania and Sierra Leone

Introduction

Disease-specific ‘vertical’ programmes and health system strengthening (HSS) ‘horizontal’ programmes are not mutually exclusive; programmes may be implemented with the dual objectives of achieving both disease-specific and broader HSS outcomes. However, there remains an ongoing need for research into how dual objective programmes are operationalised for optimum results.

Methods

A qualitative study encompassing four grantee programmes from two partner countries, Tanzania and Sierra Leone, in the Comic Relief and GlaxoSmithKline ‘Fighting Malaria, Improving Health’ partnership. Purposive sampling maximised variation in terms of geographical location, programme aims and activities, grantee type and operational sector. Data were collected via semi-structured interviews. Data analysis was informed by a general inductive approach.

Results

51 interviews were conducted across the four grantees. Grantee organisations structured and operated their respective projects in a manner generally supportive of HSS objectives. This was revealed through commonalities identified across the four grantee organisations in terms of their respective approach to achieving their HSS objectives, and experienced tensions in pursuit of these objectives. Commonalities included: (1) using short-term funding for long-term initiatives; (2) benefits of being embedded in the local health system; (3) donor flexibility to enable grantee responsiveness; (4) the need for modest expectations; and (5) the importance of micro-innovation.

Conclusion

Health systems strengthening may be pursued through disease-specific programme grants; however, the respective practice of both the funder and grantee organisation appears to be a key influence on whether HSS will be realised as well as the overall extent of HSS possible.

Integrating pharmaceutical systems strengthening in the current global health scenario: three 'uncomfortable truths'

The response to emergency public health challenges such as HIV, TB, and malaria has been successful in mobilising resources and scaling up treatment for communicable diseases. However, many of the remaining challenges in improving access to and appropriate use of medicines and services require pharmaceutical systems strengthening. Incorporating pharmaceutical systems strengthening into global health programmes requires recognition of a few ‘truths’. Systems strengthening is a lengthy and resource-intensive process that requires sustained engagement, which may not align with the short time frame for achieving targets in vertical-oriented programmes. Further, there is a lack of clarity on what key metrics associated with population and patient level outcomes should be tracked for systems strengthening interventions. This can hinder advocacy and communication with decision makers regarding health systems investments. Moving forward, it is important to find ways to balance the inherent tensions between the short-term focus on the efficiency of vertical programmes and broader, longer-term health and development objectives. Global health programme design should also shift away from a narrow view of medicines primarily as an input commodity to a more comprehensive view that recognizes the various structures and processes and their interactions within the broader health system that help ensure access to and appropriate use of medicines and related services.