Definition, risk factors and outcome of prolonged surgical intensive care unit stay

A risk nomogram for predicting prolonged intensive care unit stays in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Background

Providing intensive care is increasingly expensive, and the aim of this study was to construct a risk column line graph (nomograms)for prolonged length of stay (LOS) in the intensive care unit (ICU) for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).

Methods

This study included 4,940 patients, and the data set was randomly divided into training (n = 3,458) and validation (n = 1,482) sets at a 7:3 ratio. First, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis was used to optimize variable selection by running a tenfold k-cyclic coordinate descent. Second, a prediction model was constructed using multifactorial logistic regression analysis. Third, the model was validated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, Hosmer-Lemeshow tests, calibration plots, and decision-curve analysis (DCA), and was further internally validated.

Results

This study selected 11 predictors: sepsis, renal replacement therapy, cerebrovascular disease, respiratory failure, ventilator associated pneumonia, norepinephrine, bronchodilators, invasive mechanical ventilation, electrolytes disorders, Glasgow Coma Scale score and body temperature. The models constructed using these 11 predictors indicated good predictive power, with the areas under the ROC curves being 0.826 (95%CI, 0.809-0.842) and 0.827 (95%CI, 0.802-0.853) in the training and validation sets, respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated a strong agreement between the predicted and observed probabilities in the training (χ² = 8.21, p = 0.413) and validation (χ² = 0.64, p = 0.999) sets. In addition, decision-curve analysis suggested that the model had good clinical validity.

Conclusion

This study has constructed and validated original and dynamic nomograms for prolonged ICU stay in patients with COPD using 11 easily collected parameters. These nomograms can provide useful guidance to medical and nursing practitioners in ICUs and help reduce the disease and economic burdens on patients.

Impact of Falls Within 3 Months on the Short-Term Prognoses of Elderly Patients in Intensive Care Units: A Retrospective Cohort Study Using Stabilized Inverse Probability Treatment Weighting

Background

Falls are a major public health problem in the older adults that can lead to poor clinical outcomes. There have been few reports on the short-term prognoses of older critically ill patients, and so we sought to determine the impact of falls on elderly patients in intensive care units (ICUs).

Patients and Methods

This retrospective study of 4503 patients (aged 65 years or older) analyzed data in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-III critical care database. Of those, 2459 (54.6%) older adults are males, and 2044 (45.4%) older adults are females. Based on information from the medical care record assessment forms, patients were classified into the following two groups based on whether they had a fall within the previous 3 months: falls (n=1142) and nonfalls (n=3361). The primary outcomes of this study were 30- and 90-day mortality. Associations between the results of the Kaplan-Meier (KM) survival analysis, Cox proportional-hazards regression models, and subgroup analysis and its outcomes were analyzed using stabilized inverse probability treatment weighting (IPTW).

Results

KM survival curves with stabilized IPTW indicated that 30- and 90-day survival rates were significantly lower in elderly critically ill patients with a history of falls within the previous 3 months than in those patients without a history of falls (all p<0.001). Multivariate Cox proportional-hazards regression analysis indicated that 30- and 90-day mortality rates were 1.35 times higher (95% confidence interval [CI]=1.16-1.57, p<0.001) and 1.36 times higher (95% CI=1.19-1.55, p<0.001), respectively, in elderly critically ill patients with a history of falls within the previous 3 months than in those patients without a history of falls.

Conclusion

Experience of falls within the previous 3 months prior to ICU admission increased the risk of short-term mortality and affected the prognoses of elderly patients. Falls should therefore receive adequate attention from clinical healthcare providers and management decision-makers.

New injury severity score (NISS) outperforms injury severity score (ISS) in the evaluation of severe blunt trauma patients

PURPOSE

The injury severity score (ISS) and new injury severity score (NISS) have been widely used in trauma evaluation. However, which scoring system is better in trauma outcome prediction is still disputed. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the value of the two scoring systems in predicting trauma outcomes, including mortality, intensive care unit (ICU) admission and ICU length of stay.

METHODS

The data were collected retrospectively from three hospitals in Zhejiang province, China. The comparisons of NISS and ISS in predicting outcomes were performed by using receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves and Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics.

RESULTS

A total of 1825 blunt trauma patients were enrolled in our study. Finally, 1243 patients were admitted to ICU, and 215 patients died before discharge. The ISS and NISS were equivalent in predicting mortality (area under ORC curve [AUC]: 0.886 vs. 0.887, p = 0.9113). But for the patients with ISS ≥25, NISS showed better performance in predicting mortality. NISS was also significantly better than ISS in predicting ICU admission and prolonged ICU length of stay.

CONCLUSION

NISS outperforms ISS in predicting the outcomes for severe blunt trauma and can be an essential supplement of ISS. Considering the convenience of NISS in calculation, it is advantageous to promote NISS in China's primary hospitals.

Acute kidney injury among adult patients undergoing major surgery in a tertiary hospital in Nigeria

Background

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is an underreported but major cause of morbidity and mortality among patients undergoing major surgical interventions in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Whereas AKI is often seen following major cardiac surgery in high-income countries, a similar spectrum of surgical diseases and interventions is not seen in developing countries. The impacts on surgical outcomes have also not been well characterized in SSA. This study aimed at identifying risk factors, incidence and determinants and short-term outcomes of AKI among patients undergoing major surgery.

Methods

This was a cohort study of adult patients undergoing major surgery at the University College Hospital, Ibadan, Nigeria. Data obtained were sociodemographic details, risk factors for AKI, details of surgery, anaesthesia and intra-operative events and short-term outcomes. Blood samples were obtained for pre-operative (pre-op) full blood count, serum electrolytes, blood urea and creatinine (SCr). Post-operatively (Post-op) SCr was determined at 24 h, Day 7 post-op and weekly until each patient was discharged.

Results

A total of 219 subjects who had major surgery (86.3% elective) were enrolled. The median age of the patients was 46 (range 18-73) years and 72.6% were females. The surgeries performed were mostly simple mastectomies (37.4%), exploratory laparotomies (22.8%) and total thyroidectomies (16.4%). The incidences of AKI were 18.7% at 24 h and 17.4% at Day 7 post-op, while cumulative AKI incidence was 22.5% at 1-week post-op. Pre-op elevated SCr [odds ratio (OR) 3.86], sepsis (OR 2.69), anaemia (OR 2.91) and duration of surgery >120 min (OR 1.75) were independently associated with AKI. In-patient mortality was 20.4% in individuals with AKI and 5.3% in those without AKI (P < 0.01).

Conclusion

Peri-operative risk factors for AKI are common among patients undergoing major surgery in SSA hospitals. The cumulative incidence of AKI was high and independently associated with pre-op sepsis, anaemia, pre-existing kidney dysfunction and duration of surgery >120 min.

Clinical Characteristics and Outcomes of Surgical Patients with Intensive Care Unit Lengths of Stay of 90 Days and Greater

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of prolonged length of stay in an intensive care unit (ICU) on the mortality and morbidity of surgical patients.

METHODS

We performed a monocentric and retrospective observational study in the surgical critical care unit of the department of surgery at the Medical Center of the University of Freiburg, Germany. Clinical data was collected from patients assigned to the ICU with a length of stay (LOS) of 90 days and greater.

RESULTS

From the total of the 19 patients with ICU LOS over 90 days, ten patients died in the ICU whereas nine patients were discharged to the normal ward. The ICU mortality rate was 52%. The overall survival one year after ICU discharge was 32%. Regarding factors affecting mortality of the patients, significantly higher mortality was associated with age of the patients at the time point of the ICU admission and with postoperative need of renal replacement therapy.

CONCLUSIONS

We found a high but in our opinion acceptable mortality rate in surgical patients with ICU LOS of 90 days and greater. We identified age and the need of renal replacement therapy as risk factors for mortality.

The definition of a prolonged intensive care unit stay for spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage patients: an application with national health insurance research database

Introduction. Length of stay (LOS) in the intensive care unit (ICU) of spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (sICH) patients is one of the most important issues. The disease severity, psychosocial factors, and institutional factors will influence the length of ICU stay. This study is used in the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD) to define the threshold of a prolonged ICU stay in sICH patients. Methods. This research collected the demographic data of sICH patients in the NHIRD from 2005 to 2009. The threshold of prolonged ICU stay was calculated using change point analysis. Results. There were 1599 sICH patients included. A prolonged ICU stay was defined as being equal to or longer than 10 days. There were 436 prolonged ICU stay cases and 1163 nonprolonged cases. Conclusion. This study showed that the threshold of a prolonged ICU stay is a good indicator of hospital utilization in ICH patients. Different hospitals have their own different care strategies that can be identified with a prolonged ICU stay. This indicator can be improved using quality control methods such as complications prevention and efficiency of ICU bed management. Patients' stay in ICUs and in hospitals will be shorter if integrated care systems are established.

Postoperative Recovery with Bispectral Index versus Anesthetic Concentration–guided Protocols

Background:

Use of the bispectral index (BIS) monitor has been suggested to decrease excessive anesthetic drug administration, leading to improved recovery from general anesthesia. The purpose of this substudy of the B-Unawareand BAG-RECALL trials was to assess whether a BIS-based anesthetic protocol was superior to an end-tidal anesthetic concentration–based protocol in decreasing recovery time and postoperative complications.

Methods:

Patients at high risk for awareness were randomized to either BIS-guided or end-tidal anesthetic concentration–guided general anesthesia in the original trials. Outcomes included time to postanesthesia care unit discharge readiness, time to achieve a postoperative Aldrete score of 9–10, intensive care unit length of stay, postoperative nausea and vomiting, and severe postoperative pain. Univariate Cox regression and chi-square tests were used for statistical analyses.

Results:

The BIS cohort was not superior in time to postanesthesia care unit discharge readiness (hazard ratio, 1.0; 95% CI, 1.0–1.1; n = 2,949), time to achieve an Aldrete score of 9–10 (hazard ratio, 1.2; 95% CI, 1.0–1.4; n = 706), intensive care unit length of stay (hazard ratio, 1.0; 95% CI, 0.9–1.1; n = 2,074), incidence of postoperative nausea and vomiting (absolute risk reduction, −0.5%; 95% CI, −5.8 to 4.8%; n = 789), or incidence of severe postoperative pain (absolute risk reduction, 4.4%; 95% CI, −2.3 to 11.1%; n = 759).

Conclusions:

In patients at high risk for awareness, the BIS-guided protocol is not superior to an anesthetic concentration–guided protocol in time needed for postoperative recovery or in the incidences of common postoperative complications.