Mental disorder, predisposition, prediction, and ability to control: evaluating sex offenders for civil commitment

Defining Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment

There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals' risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals' risk. By definition, only Bayesian probability can be applied to the single case. The Bayesian concept of probability resolves most of the confusion and much of the debate in sex offender risk assessment. Although Bayesian probability is well accepted in risk assessment generally, it has not been widely used to assess the risk of sex offenders. I review the two concepts of probability and show how the Bayesian view alone provides a coherent scheme to conceptualize individuals' risk of sexual recidivism.

Diagnostic profiles of civilly committed sexual offenders in Illinois and other reporting jurisdictions: what we know so far

The records of 377 men civilly committed under Illinois' Sexually Violent Persons Act were compared with similar published samples from seven other states. Civilly committed sexual offenders in Illinois were more likely to be diagnosed with any personality disorder and more likely to exceed the cutoff score for psychopathy than similar offenders in other states. The authors then present a national composite of demographic, victim, and diagnostic information on men referred or pursued for civil commitment in eight states to better understand how these individuals differ from sex offender populations in correctional settings. Results suggest that there may be less victim specificity in sexually violent person (SVP) populations, as although nearly 50% of SVPs are diagnosed with pedophilia, 80% had committed at least one sexual offense against a child or adolescent victim. Across all samples, 72.7% of SVPs were diagnosed with a personality disorder, with antisocial personality disorder the most prevalent.