COVID-19 Spotlights Connections between Disease and Multiple Lifestyle Factors

Is society caught up in a Death Spiral? Modeling societal demise and its reversal

Just like an army of ants caught in an ant mill, individuals, groups and even whole societies are sometimes caught up in a Death Spiral, a vicious cycle of self-reinforcing dysfunctional behavior characterized by continuous flawed decision making, myopic single-minded focus on one (set of) solution(s), denial, distrust, micromanagement, dogmatic thinking and learned helplessness. We propose the term Death Spiral Effect to describe this difficult-to-break downward spiral of societal decline. Specifically, in the current theory-building review we aim to: (a) more clearly define and describe the Death Spiral Effect; (b) model the downward spiral of societal decline as well as an upward spiral; (c) describe how and why individuals, groups and even society at large might be caught up in a Death Spiral; and (d) offer a positive way forward in terms of evidence-based solutions to escape the Death Spiral Effect. Management theory hints on the occurrence of this phenomenon and offers turn-around leadership as solution. On a societal level strengthening of democracy may be important. Prior research indicates that historically, two key factors trigger this type of societal decline: rising inequalities creating an upper layer of elites and a lower layer of masses; and dwindling (access to) resources. Historical key markers of societal decline are a steep increase in inequalities, government overreach, over-integration (interdependencies in networks) and a rapidly decreasing trust in institutions and resulting collapse of legitimacy. Important issues that we aim to shed light on are the behavioral underpinnings of decline, as well as the question if and how societal decline can be reversed. We explore the extension of these theories from the company/organization level to the society level, and make use of insights from both micro-, meso-, and macro-level theories (e.g., Complex Adaptive Systems and collapsology, the study of the risks of collapse of industrial civilization) to explain this process of societal demise. Our review furthermore draws on theories such as Social Safety Theory, Conservation of Resources Theory, and management theories that describe the decline and fall of groups, companies and societies, as well as offer ways to reverse this trend.

COVID-19 in patients with pre-existing chronic liver disease – predictors of outcomes

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has affected patients with pre-existing chronic liver disease (CLD) in various ways. The maximum impact was seen on patients with underlying cirrhosis who have shown to have poor clinical outcomes in the form of increased risk of hepatic decompensation, acute-on-chronic liver failure, and even mortality. It is of paramount importance to identify various factors which are associated with unfavorable outcomes for prognostication and making informed management strategy. Many factors have been evaluated in different studies in patients with underlying CLD. Some of these factors include the severity of underlying chronic liver disease, comorbid conditions, age, and severity of COVID-19. Overall, the outcomes are not fav-orable in patients with cirrhosis as evidenced by data from various studies. The main purpose of this review is to identify the predictors of adverse clinical outcomes including mortality in patients with CLD for risk stratification, prognostication, and appropriate clinical management.