ANALYSES OF PREVENTIVE CARE MEASURES WITH INCOMPLETE HISTORICAL DATA IN ELECTRONIC MEDICAL RECORDS: AN EXAMPLE FROM COLORECTAL CANCER SCREENING

Development of an Electronic Health Record-Based Algorithm for Predicting Lung Cancer Screening Eligibility in the Population-Based Research to Optimize the Screening Process Lung Research Consortium

PURPOSE

Lung cancer screening (LCS) guidelines in the United States recommend LCS for those age 50-80 years with at least 20 pack-years smoking history who currently smoke or quit within the last 15 years. We tested the performance of simple smoking-related criteria derived from electronic health record (EHR) data and developed and tested the performance of a multivariable model in predicting LCS eligibility.

METHODS

Analyses were completed within the Population-based Research to Optimize the Screening Process Lung Consortium (PROSPR-Lung). In our primary validity analyses, the reference standard LCS eligibility was based on self-reported smoking data collected via survey. Within one PROSPR-Lung health system, we used a training data set and penalized multivariable logistic regression using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator to select EHR-based variables into the prediction model including demographics, smoking history, diagnoses, and prescription medications. A separate test data set assessed model performance. We also conducted external validation analysis in a separate health system and reported AUC, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and accuracy metrics associated with the Youden Index.

RESULTS

There were 14,214 individuals with survey data to assess LCS eligibility in primary analyses. The overall performance for assigning LCS eligibility status as measured by the AUC values at the two health systems was 0.940 and 0.938. At the Youden Index cutoff value, performance metrics were as follows: accuracy, 0.855 and 0.895; sensitivity, 0.886 and 0.920; specificity, 0.896 and 0.850; PPV, 0.357 and 0.444; and NPV, 0.988 and 0.992.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that health systems can use an EHR-derived multivariable prediction model to aid in the identification of those who may be eligible for LCS.

ANALYSES OF PREVENTIVE CARE MEASURES WITH INCOMPLETE HISTORICAL DATA IN ELECTRONIC MEDICAL RECORDS: AN EXAMPLE FROM COLORECTAL CANCER SCREENING

The calculation of quality of care measures based on electronic medical records (EMRs) may be inaccurate because of incomplete capture of past services. We evaluate the influence of different statistical approaches for calculating the proportion of patients who are up-to-date for a preventive service, using the example of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. We propose an extension of traditional mixture models to account for the uncertainty in compliance, which is further complicated by the choice of various screening modalities with different recommended screening intervals. We conducted simulation studies to compare various statistical approaches and demonstrated that the proposed method can alleviate bias when individuals with complete prior medical history information were not representative of the targeted population. The method is motivated by and applied to data from the National Cancer Institute-funded consortium Population-Based Research Optimizing Screening through Personalized Regiments (PROSPR). Findings from the application are important for the evaluation of appropriate use of preventive care and provide a novel tool for dealing with similar analytical challenges with EMR data in broad settings.