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Campos-Fernandez D, Rodrigo-Gisbert M, Abraira L, Quintana Luque M, Santafé M, Lallana S, Fonseca E, Toledo M, Gándara DF, Arikan F, Tomasello A, Sala Padró JX, Falip M, López-Ojeda P, Gabarrós A, Sánchez A, Santamarina E. Predictive Model for Estimating the Risk of Epilepsy After Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage: The RISE Score. Neurology 2024; 102:e209221. [PMID: 38527232 DOI: 10.1212/wnl.0000000000209221] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/24/2023] [Accepted: 01/02/2024] [Indexed: 03/27/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES The occurrence of seizures after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) is associated with a poorer functional and cognitive prognosis and less favorable quality of life. It would be of value to promptly identify patients at risk of epilepsy to optimize follow-up protocols and design preventive strategies. Our aim was to develop a predictive score to help stratify epilepsy risk in patients with aSAH. METHODS This is a retrospective, longitudinal study of all adults with aSAH admitted to our center (2012-2021). We collected demographic data, clinical and radiologic variables, data on early-onset seizures (EOSs), and data on development of epilepsy. Exclusion criteria were previous structural brain lesion, epilepsy, and ≤7 days' follow-up. Multiple Cox regression was used to evaluate factors independently associated with unprovoked remote seizures (i.e., epilepsy). The best fitting regression model was used to develop a predictive score. Performance was evaluated in an external validation cohort of 308 patients using receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis. RESULTS From an initial database of 743 patients, 419 met the inclusion criteria and were included in the analysis. The mean age was 60 ± 14 years, 269 patients (64%) were women, and 50 (11.9%) developed epilepsy within a median follow-up of 4.2 years. Premorbid modified Rankin Score (mRS) (hazard ratio [HR] 4.74 [1.8-12.4], p = 0.001), VASOGRADE score (HR 2.45 [1.4-4.2], p = 0.001), surgical treatment (HR 2.77 [1.6-4.9], p = 0.001), and presence of EOSs (HR 1.84 [1.0-3.4], p = 0.05) were independently associated with epilepsy. The proposed scale, designated RISE, scores 1 point for premorbid mRS ≥ 2 (R), VASOGRADE-Yellow (I, Ischemia), surgical intervention (S), and history of EOSs (E) and 2 points for VASOGRADE-Red. RISE stratifies patients into 3 groups: low (0-1), moderate (2-3), and high (4-5) risk (2.9%, 20.8%, and 75.7% developed epilepsy, respectively). On validation in a cohort from a different tertiary care center (N = 308), the new scale yielded a similar risk distribution and good predictive power for epilepsy within 5 years after aSAH (area under the curve [AUC] 0.82; 95% CI 0.74-0.90). DISCUSSION The RISE scale is a robust predictor of post-SAH epilepsy with immediate clinical applicability. In addition to facilitating personalized diagnosis and treatment, RISE may be of value for exploring future antiepileptogenesis strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel Campos-Fernandez
- From the Epilepsy Unit (D.C.-F., M.R.-G., L.A., M.Q.L., S.L., E.F., M.T., E.S.), Neurology Department, Vall d'Hebron University Hospital; Epilepsy Research Group (D.C.-F., L.A., M.Q.L., S.L., E.F., M.T., E.S.), Vall d'Hebron Institut de Recerca (VHIR), Barcelona; Medicine Department (D.C.-F., S.L., M.T., E.S.), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra; Intensive Care Department (M.S., A.S.); Neurosurgery Department (D.F.G., F.A.); Neuroradiology Department (A.T.), Vall d'Hebron University Hospital; Epilepsy Unit (J.X.S.P., M.F.), Neurology Department; and Neurosurgery Department (P.L.-O., A.G.), Bellvitge University Hospital, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Marc Rodrigo-Gisbert
- From the Epilepsy Unit (D.C.-F., M.R.-G., L.A., M.Q.L., S.L., E.F., M.T., E.S.), Neurology Department, Vall d'Hebron University Hospital; Epilepsy Research Group (D.C.-F., L.A., M.Q.L., S.L., E.F., M.T., E.S.), Vall d'Hebron Institut de Recerca (VHIR), Barcelona; Medicine Department (D.C.-F., S.L., M.T., E.S.), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra; Intensive Care Department (M.S., A.S.); Neurosurgery Department (D.F.G., F.A.); Neuroradiology Department (A.T.), Vall d'Hebron University Hospital; Epilepsy Unit (J.X.S.P., M.F.), Neurology Department; and Neurosurgery Department (P.L.-O., A.G.), Bellvitge University Hospital, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Laura Abraira
- From the Epilepsy Unit (D.C.-F., M.R.-G., L.A., M.Q.L., S.L., E.F., M.T., E.S.), Neurology Department, Vall d'Hebron University Hospital; Epilepsy Research Group (D.C.-F., L.A., M.Q.L., S.L., E.F., M.T., E.S.), Vall d'Hebron Institut de Recerca (VHIR), Barcelona; Medicine Department (D.C.-F., S.L., M.T., E.S.), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra; Intensive Care Department (M.S., A.S.); Neurosurgery Department (D.F.G., F.A.); Neuroradiology Department (A.T.), Vall d'Hebron University Hospital; Epilepsy Unit (J.X.S.P., M.F.), Neurology Department; and Neurosurgery Department (P.L.-O., A.G.), Bellvitge University Hospital, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Manuel Quintana Luque
- From the Epilepsy Unit (D.C.-F., M.R.-G., L.A., M.Q.L., S.L., E.F., M.T., E.S.), Neurology Department, Vall d'Hebron University Hospital; Epilepsy Research Group (D.C.-F., L.A., M.Q.L., S.L., E.F., M.T., E.S.), Vall d'Hebron Institut de Recerca (VHIR), Barcelona; Medicine Department (D.C.-F., S.L., M.T., E.S.), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra; Intensive Care Department (M.S., A.S.); Neurosurgery Department (D.F.G., F.A.); Neuroradiology Department (A.T.), Vall d'Hebron University Hospital; Epilepsy Unit (J.X.S.P., M.F.), Neurology Department; and Neurosurgery Department (P.L.-O., A.G.), Bellvitge University Hospital, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Manel Santafé
- From the Epilepsy Unit (D.C.-F., M.R.-G., L.A., M.Q.L., S.L., E.F., M.T., E.S.), Neurology Department, Vall d'Hebron University Hospital; Epilepsy Research Group (D.C.-F., L.A., M.Q.L., S.L., E.F., M.T., E.S.), Vall d'Hebron Institut de Recerca (VHIR), Barcelona; Medicine Department (D.C.-F., S.L., M.T., E.S.), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra; Intensive Care Department (M.S., A.S.); Neurosurgery Department (D.F.G., F.A.); Neuroradiology Department (A.T.), Vall d'Hebron University Hospital; Epilepsy Unit (J.X.S.P., M.F.), Neurology Department; and Neurosurgery Department (P.L.-O., A.G.), Bellvitge University Hospital, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Sofia Lallana
- From the Epilepsy Unit (D.C.-F., M.R.-G., L.A., M.Q.L., S.L., E.F., M.T., E.S.), Neurology Department, Vall d'Hebron University Hospital; Epilepsy Research Group (D.C.-F., L.A., M.Q.L., S.L., E.F., M.T., E.S.), Vall d'Hebron Institut de Recerca (VHIR), Barcelona; Medicine Department (D.C.-F., S.L., M.T., E.S.), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra; Intensive Care Department (M.S., A.S.); Neurosurgery Department (D.F.G., F.A.); Neuroradiology Department (A.T.), Vall d'Hebron University Hospital; Epilepsy Unit (J.X.S.P., M.F.), Neurology Department; and Neurosurgery Department (P.L.-O., A.G.), Bellvitge University Hospital, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Elena Fonseca
- From the Epilepsy Unit (D.C.-F., M.R.-G., L.A., M.Q.L., S.L., E.F., M.T., E.S.), Neurology Department, Vall d'Hebron University Hospital; Epilepsy Research Group (D.C.-F., L.A., M.Q.L., S.L., E.F., M.T., E.S.), Vall d'Hebron Institut de Recerca (VHIR), Barcelona; Medicine Department (D.C.-F., S.L., M.T., E.S.), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra; Intensive Care Department (M.S., A.S.); Neurosurgery Department (D.F.G., F.A.); Neuroradiology Department (A.T.), Vall d'Hebron University Hospital; Epilepsy Unit (J.X.S.P., M.F.), Neurology Department; and Neurosurgery Department (P.L.-O., A.G.), Bellvitge University Hospital, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Manuel Toledo
- From the Epilepsy Unit (D.C.-F., M.R.-G., L.A., M.Q.L., S.L., E.F., M.T., E.S.), Neurology Department, Vall d'Hebron University Hospital; Epilepsy Research Group (D.C.-F., L.A., M.Q.L., S.L., E.F., M.T., E.S.), Vall d'Hebron Institut de Recerca (VHIR), Barcelona; Medicine Department (D.C.-F., S.L., M.T., E.S.), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra; Intensive Care Department (M.S., A.S.); Neurosurgery Department (D.F.G., F.A.); Neuroradiology Department (A.T.), Vall d'Hebron University Hospital; Epilepsy Unit (J.X.S.P., M.F.), Neurology Department; and Neurosurgery Department (P.L.-O., A.G.), Bellvitge University Hospital, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Darío F Gándara
- From the Epilepsy Unit (D.C.-F., M.R.-G., L.A., M.Q.L., S.L., E.F., M.T., E.S.), Neurology Department, Vall d'Hebron University Hospital; Epilepsy Research Group (D.C.-F., L.A., M.Q.L., S.L., E.F., M.T., E.S.), Vall d'Hebron Institut de Recerca (VHIR), Barcelona; Medicine Department (D.C.-F., S.L., M.T., E.S.), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra; Intensive Care Department (M.S., A.S.); Neurosurgery Department (D.F.G., F.A.); Neuroradiology Department (A.T.), Vall d'Hebron University Hospital; Epilepsy Unit (J.X.S.P., M.F.), Neurology Department; and Neurosurgery Department (P.L.-O., A.G.), Bellvitge University Hospital, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Fuat Arikan
- From the Epilepsy Unit (D.C.-F., M.R.-G., L.A., M.Q.L., S.L., E.F., M.T., E.S.), Neurology Department, Vall d'Hebron University Hospital; Epilepsy Research Group (D.C.-F., L.A., M.Q.L., S.L., E.F., M.T., E.S.), Vall d'Hebron Institut de Recerca (VHIR), Barcelona; Medicine Department (D.C.-F., S.L., M.T., E.S.), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra; Intensive Care Department (M.S., A.S.); Neurosurgery Department (D.F.G., F.A.); Neuroradiology Department (A.T.), Vall d'Hebron University Hospital; Epilepsy Unit (J.X.S.P., M.F.), Neurology Department; and Neurosurgery Department (P.L.-O., A.G.), Bellvitge University Hospital, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Alejandro Tomasello
- From the Epilepsy Unit (D.C.-F., M.R.-G., L.A., M.Q.L., S.L., E.F., M.T., E.S.), Neurology Department, Vall d'Hebron University Hospital; Epilepsy Research Group (D.C.-F., L.A., M.Q.L., S.L., E.F., M.T., E.S.), Vall d'Hebron Institut de Recerca (VHIR), Barcelona; Medicine Department (D.C.-F., S.L., M.T., E.S.), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra; Intensive Care Department (M.S., A.S.); Neurosurgery Department (D.F.G., F.A.); Neuroradiology Department (A.T.), Vall d'Hebron University Hospital; Epilepsy Unit (J.X.S.P., M.F.), Neurology Department; and Neurosurgery Department (P.L.-O., A.G.), Bellvitge University Hospital, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Jacint X Sala Padró
- From the Epilepsy Unit (D.C.-F., M.R.-G., L.A., M.Q.L., S.L., E.F., M.T., E.S.), Neurology Department, Vall d'Hebron University Hospital; Epilepsy Research Group (D.C.-F., L.A., M.Q.L., S.L., E.F., M.T., E.S.), Vall d'Hebron Institut de Recerca (VHIR), Barcelona; Medicine Department (D.C.-F., S.L., M.T., E.S.), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra; Intensive Care Department (M.S., A.S.); Neurosurgery Department (D.F.G., F.A.); Neuroradiology Department (A.T.), Vall d'Hebron University Hospital; Epilepsy Unit (J.X.S.P., M.F.), Neurology Department; and Neurosurgery Department (P.L.-O., A.G.), Bellvitge University Hospital, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Merce Falip
- From the Epilepsy Unit (D.C.-F., M.R.-G., L.A., M.Q.L., S.L., E.F., M.T., E.S.), Neurology Department, Vall d'Hebron University Hospital; Epilepsy Research Group (D.C.-F., L.A., M.Q.L., S.L., E.F., M.T., E.S.), Vall d'Hebron Institut de Recerca (VHIR), Barcelona; Medicine Department (D.C.-F., S.L., M.T., E.S.), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra; Intensive Care Department (M.S., A.S.); Neurosurgery Department (D.F.G., F.A.); Neuroradiology Department (A.T.), Vall d'Hebron University Hospital; Epilepsy Unit (J.X.S.P., M.F.), Neurology Department; and Neurosurgery Department (P.L.-O., A.G.), Bellvitge University Hospital, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Pablo López-Ojeda
- From the Epilepsy Unit (D.C.-F., M.R.-G., L.A., M.Q.L., S.L., E.F., M.T., E.S.), Neurology Department, Vall d'Hebron University Hospital; Epilepsy Research Group (D.C.-F., L.A., M.Q.L., S.L., E.F., M.T., E.S.), Vall d'Hebron Institut de Recerca (VHIR), Barcelona; Medicine Department (D.C.-F., S.L., M.T., E.S.), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra; Intensive Care Department (M.S., A.S.); Neurosurgery Department (D.F.G., F.A.); Neuroradiology Department (A.T.), Vall d'Hebron University Hospital; Epilepsy Unit (J.X.S.P., M.F.), Neurology Department; and Neurosurgery Department (P.L.-O., A.G.), Bellvitge University Hospital, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Andreu Gabarrós
- From the Epilepsy Unit (D.C.-F., M.R.-G., L.A., M.Q.L., S.L., E.F., M.T., E.S.), Neurology Department, Vall d'Hebron University Hospital; Epilepsy Research Group (D.C.-F., L.A., M.Q.L., S.L., E.F., M.T., E.S.), Vall d'Hebron Institut de Recerca (VHIR), Barcelona; Medicine Department (D.C.-F., S.L., M.T., E.S.), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra; Intensive Care Department (M.S., A.S.); Neurosurgery Department (D.F.G., F.A.); Neuroradiology Department (A.T.), Vall d'Hebron University Hospital; Epilepsy Unit (J.X.S.P., M.F.), Neurology Department; and Neurosurgery Department (P.L.-O., A.G.), Bellvitge University Hospital, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Anna Sánchez
- From the Epilepsy Unit (D.C.-F., M.R.-G., L.A., M.Q.L., S.L., E.F., M.T., E.S.), Neurology Department, Vall d'Hebron University Hospital; Epilepsy Research Group (D.C.-F., L.A., M.Q.L., S.L., E.F., M.T., E.S.), Vall d'Hebron Institut de Recerca (VHIR), Barcelona; Medicine Department (D.C.-F., S.L., M.T., E.S.), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra; Intensive Care Department (M.S., A.S.); Neurosurgery Department (D.F.G., F.A.); Neuroradiology Department (A.T.), Vall d'Hebron University Hospital; Epilepsy Unit (J.X.S.P., M.F.), Neurology Department; and Neurosurgery Department (P.L.-O., A.G.), Bellvitge University Hospital, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Estevo Santamarina
- From the Epilepsy Unit (D.C.-F., M.R.-G., L.A., M.Q.L., S.L., E.F., M.T., E.S.), Neurology Department, Vall d'Hebron University Hospital; Epilepsy Research Group (D.C.-F., L.A., M.Q.L., S.L., E.F., M.T., E.S.), Vall d'Hebron Institut de Recerca (VHIR), Barcelona; Medicine Department (D.C.-F., S.L., M.T., E.S.), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra; Intensive Care Department (M.S., A.S.); Neurosurgery Department (D.F.G., F.A.); Neuroradiology Department (A.T.), Vall d'Hebron University Hospital; Epilepsy Unit (J.X.S.P., M.F.), Neurology Department; and Neurosurgery Department (P.L.-O., A.G.), Bellvitge University Hospital, Barcelona, Spain
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