A Novel Machine Learning Algorithm Combined With Multivariate Analysis for the Prognosis of Renal Collecting Duct Carcinoma

Construction and validation of nomograms combined with novel machine learning algorithms to predict early death of patients with metastatic colorectal cancer

Purpose

The purpose of this study was to investigate the clinical and non-clinical characteristics that may affect the early death rate of patients with metastatic colorectal carcinoma (mCRC) and develop accurate prognostic predictive models for mCRC.

Method

Medical records of 35,639 patients with mCRC diagnosed from 2010 to 2019 were obtained from the SEER database. All the patients were randomly divided into a training cohort and a validation cohort in a ratio of 7:3. X-tile software was utilized to identify the optimal cutoff point for age and tumor size. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to determine the independent predictors associated with overall early death and cancer-specific early death caused by mCRC. Simultaneously, predictive and dynamic nomograms were constructed. Moreover, logistic regression, random forest, CatBoost, LightGBM, and XGBoost were used to establish machine learning (ML) models. In addition, receiver operating characteristic curves (ROCs) and calibration plots were obtained to estimate the accuracy of the models. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was employed to determine the clinical benefits of ML models.

Results

The optimal cutoff points for age were 58 and 77 years and those for tumor size of 45 and 76. A total of 15 independent risk factors, namely, age, marital status, race, tumor localization, histologic type, grade, N-stage, tumor size, surgery, radiation, chemotherapy, bone metastasis, brain metastasis, liver metastasis, and lung metastasis, were significantly associated with the overall early death rate of patients with mCRC and the cancer-specific early death rate of patients with mCRC, following which nomograms were constructed. The ML models revealed that the random forest model accurately predicted outcomes, followed by logistic regression, CatBoost, XGBoost, and LightGBM models. Compared with other algorithms, the random forest model provided more clinical benefits than other models and can be used to make clinical decisions in overall early death and specific early death caused by mCRC.

Conclusion

ML algorithms combined with nomograms may play an important role in distinguishing early deaths owing to mCRC and potentially help clinicians make clinical decisions and follow-up strategies.

A Predictive Model for the 10-year Overall Survival Status of Patients With Distant Metastases From Differentiated Thyroid Cancer Using XGBoost Algorithm-A Population-Based Analysis

Purpose: To explore clinical and non-clinical characteristics affecting the prognosis of patients with differentiated thyroid cancer with distant metastasis (DTCDM) and establish an accurate overall survival (OS) prognostic model.

Patients and methods: Study subjects and related information were obtained from the National Cancer Institute’s surveillance, epidemiology, and results database (SEER). Kaplan‐Meier analysis, log-rank test, and univariate and multivariate Cox analysis were used to screen for factors influencing the OS of patients with DTCDM. Nine variables were introduced to build a machine learning (ML) model, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) was used to evaluate the recognition ability of the model, calibration plots were used to obtain prediction accuracy, and decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to estimate clinical benefit.

Results: After applying the inclusion and exclusion criteria, a total of 3,060 patients with DTCDM were included in the survival analysis from 2004 to 2017. A machine learning prediction model was developed with nine variables: age at diagnosis, gender, race, tumor size, histology, regional lymph node metastasis, primary site surgery, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy. After excluding patients who survived <120 months, variables were sub-coded and machine learning was used to model OS prognosis in patients with DTCDM. Patients 6–50 years of age had the highest scores in the model. Other variables with high scores included small tumor size, male sex, and age 51–76. The AUC and calibration curves confirm that the XGBoost model has good performance. DCA shows that our model can be used to support clinical decision-making in a 10-years overall survival model.

Conclusion: An artificial intelligence model was constructed using the XGBoost algorithms to predict the 10-years overall survival rate of patients with DTCDM. After model validation and evaluation, the model had good discriminative ability and high clinical value. This model could serve as a clinical tool to help inform treatment decisions for patients with DTCDM.