Urgent Need for Field Surveys of Coronaviruses in Southeast Asia to Understand the SARS-CoV-2 Phylogeny and Risk Assessment for Future Outbreaks

Genomic representation predicts an asymptotic host adaptation of bat coronaviruses using deep learning

Introduction

Coronaviruses (CoVs) are naturally found in bats and can occasionally cause infection and transmission in humans and other mammals. Our study aimed to build a deep learning (DL) method to predict the adaptation of bat CoVs to other mammals.

Methods

The CoV genome was represented with a method of dinucleotide composition representation (DCR) for the two main viral genes, ORF1ab and Spike. DCR features were first analyzed for their distribution among adaptive hosts and then trained with a DL classifier of convolutional neural networks (CNN) to predict the adaptation of bat CoVs.

Results and discussion

The results demonstrated inter-host separation and intra-host clustering of DCR-represented CoVs for six host types: Artiodactyla, Carnivora, Chiroptera, Primates, Rodentia/Lagomorpha, and Suiformes. The DCR-based CNN with five host labels (without Chiroptera) predicted a dominant adaptation of bat CoVs to Artiodactyla hosts, then to Carnivora and Rodentia/Lagomorpha mammals, and later to primates. Moreover, a linear asymptotic adaptation of all CoVs (except Suiformes) from Artiodactyla to Carnivora and Rodentia/Lagomorpha and then to Primates indicates an asymptotic bats-other mammals-human adaptation.

Conclusion

Genomic dinucleotides represented as DCR indicate a host-specific separation, and clustering predicts a linear asymptotic adaptation shift of bat CoVs from other mammals to humans via deep learning.

Mathematical model of the feedback between global supply chain disruption and COVID-19 dynamics

The pandemic of COVID-19 has become one of the greatest threats to human health, causing severe disruptions in the global supply chain, and compromising health care delivery worldwide. Although government authorities sought to contain the spread of SARS-CoV-2, by restricting travel and in-person activities, failure to deploy time-sensitive strategies in ramping-up of critical resource production exacerbated the outbreak. Here, we developed a mathematical model to analyze the effects of the interaction between supply chain disruption and infectious disease dynamics using coupled production and disease networks built on global data. Analysis of the supply chain model suggests that time-sensitive containment strategies could be created to balance objectives in pandemic control and economic losses, leading to a spatiotemporal separation of infection peaks that alleviates the societal impact of the disease. A lean resource allocation strategy can reduce the impact of supply chain shortages from 11.91 to 1.11% in North America. Our model highlights the importance of cross-sectoral coordination and region-wise collaboration to optimally contain a pandemic and provides a framework that could advance the containment and model-based decision making for future pandemics.