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Yan X, Xia P, Tong H, Lan C, Wang Q, Zhou Y, Zhu H, Jiang C. Development and Validation of a Dynamic Nomogram for Predicting 3-Month Mortality in Acute Ischemic Stroke Patients with Atrial Fibrillation. Risk Manag Healthc Policy 2024; 17:145-158. [PMID: 38250220 PMCID: PMC10799644 DOI: 10.2147/rmhp.s442353] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/27/2023] [Accepted: 01/11/2024] [Indexed: 01/23/2024] Open
Abstract
Background Acute ischemic stroke (AIS) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) carries a substantial risk of mortality, emphasizing the need for effective risk assessment and timely interventions. This study aimed to develop and validate a practical dynamic nomogram for predicting 3-month mortality in AIS patients with AF. Methods AIS patients with AF were enrolled and randomly divided into training and validation cohorts. The nomogram was developed based on independent risk factors identified by multivariate logistic regression analysis. The prediction performance of the nomogram was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC), calibration plots, decision curve analysis (DCA), and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Results A total of 412 patients with AIS and AF entered final analysis, 288 patients in the training cohort and 124 patients in the validation cohort. The nomogram was developed using age, baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score, early introduction of novel oral anticoagulants, and pneumonia as independent risk factors. The nomogram exhibited good discrimination both in the training cohort (AUC, 0.851; 95% CI, 0.802-0.899) and the validation cohort (AUC, 0.811; 95% CI, 0.706-0.916). The calibration plots, DCA and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis demonstrated that the nomogram was well calibrated and clinically useful, effectively distinguishing the 3-month survival status of patients with AIS and AF, respectively. The dynamic nomogram can be obtained at the website: https://yanxiaodi.shinyapps.io/3-monthmortality/. Conclusion The dynamic nomogram represents the first predictive model for 3-month mortality and may contribute to managing the mortality risk of patients with AIS and AF.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaodi Yan
- Department of Pharmacy, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital, School of Basic Medicine and Clinical Pharmacy, China Pharmaceutical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, People’s Republic of China
- School of Basic Medicine and Clinical Pharmacy, China Pharmaceutical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, People’s Republic of China
| | - Peng Xia
- Department of Pharmacy, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital, School of Pharmacy, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, People’s Republic of China
| | - Hanwen Tong
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital, Affiliated Hospital of Medical School, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, People’s Republic of China
| | - Chen Lan
- Department of Pharmacy, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital, School of Basic Medicine and Clinical Pharmacy, China Pharmaceutical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, People’s Republic of China
- School of Basic Medicine and Clinical Pharmacy, China Pharmaceutical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, People’s Republic of China
| | - Qian Wang
- Department of Pharmacy, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital, School of Basic Medicine and Clinical Pharmacy, China Pharmaceutical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, People’s Republic of China
- School of Basic Medicine and Clinical Pharmacy, China Pharmaceutical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, People’s Republic of China
| | - Yujie Zhou
- Department of Respiratory Critical Care Medicine, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital, Affiliated Hospital of Medical School, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, People’s Republic of China
| | - Huaijun Zhu
- Department of Pharmacy, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital, Affiliated Hospital of Medical School, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, People’s Republic of China
| | - Chenxiao Jiang
- Department of Pharmacy, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital, Affiliated Hospital of Medical School, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, People’s Republic of China
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Wang R, Cai L, Liu Y, Zhang J, He M, Xu J. Liver fibrosis score is associated with the mortality of traumatic brain injury patients. Neurosurg Rev 2023; 46:201. [PMID: 37581745 DOI: 10.1007/s10143-023-02095-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/19/2023] [Revised: 07/11/2023] [Accepted: 07/20/2023] [Indexed: 08/16/2023]
Abstract
The fibrosis-4 score is a marker of liver fibrosis and has been confirmed to be associated with the prognosis of various diseases. There is no study exploring the prognostic value of the fibrosis-4 score in traumatic brain injury (TBI) patients. We design this study to explore the association between the fibrosis-4 score and mortality from TBI. TBI patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-III database were extracted for the study. Univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were sequentially performed to analyze the association between fibrosis-4 and mortality in TBI. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was drawn to evaluate the prognostic value of fibrosis-4 and other scores. A total of 1018 TBI patients were included, with a 30-day mortality of 24.2%. Non-survivors had older age, lower Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), and higher injury severity score (ISS) than survivors. The aspartate aminotransferase platelet ratio index (APRI) and fibrosis-4 score were significantly higher in non-survivors. Univariate logistic regression showed that age, GCS, ISS, white blood cell, hemoglobin, fibrosis-4 score, subarachnoid hemorrhage, and anticoagulants were associated with the mortality of TBI patients. Multivariate logistic regression presented that age, GCS, ISS, fibrosis-4 score, subarachnoid hemorrhage, and anticoagulants were independent risk factors of mortality in TBI patients after adjusting for confounding effects. The AUC of the GCS, ISS, APRI, and fibrosis-4 score for predicting mortality was 0.711, 0.625, 0.592, and 0.627, respectively. Composed of age, GCS, ISS, fibrosis-4 score, subarachnoid hemorrhage, and anticoagulants, the predictive model had the highest AUC value of 0.790. The fibrosis-4 score is an independent risk factor for mortality in TBI. The model incorporating fibrosis-4 performs well in predicting the prognosis of TBI patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ruoran Wang
- Department of Neurosurgery, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, No. 37, Guoxue Alley, Sichuan Province, 610041, Chengdu, China
| | - Linrui Cai
- Institute of Drug Clinical Trial·GCP, West China Second University Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
- Diseases of Women and Children, Sichuan University, Ministry of Education, Chengdu, China
| | - Yan Liu
- Laboratory Animal Center of Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Jing Zhang
- Department of Neurosurgery, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, No. 37, Guoxue Alley, Sichuan Province, 610041, Chengdu, China
| | - Min He
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, No. 37, Guoxue Alley, Chengdu, 610041, Sichuan Province, China.
| | - Jianguo Xu
- Department of Neurosurgery, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, No. 37, Guoxue Alley, Sichuan Province, 610041, Chengdu, China.
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