[Deaths attributable to alcohol use and its impact on life expectancy in China, 2013]

Projection of Premature Cancer Mortality in Hunan, China, Through 2030: Modeling Study

BACKGROUND

The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals for 2030 include reducing premature mortality from noncommunicable diseases by one-third. Although previous modeling studies have predicted premature mortality from noncommunicable diseases, the predictions for cancer and its subcategories are less well understood in China.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to project premature cancer mortality of 10 leading cancers in Hunan Province, China, based on various scenarios of risk factor control so as to establish the priority for future interventions.

METHODS

We used data collected between 2009 and 2017 from the Hunan cancer registry annual report as empirical data for projections. The population-attributable fraction was used to disaggregate cancer deaths into parts attributable and unattributable to 10 risk factors: smoking, alcohol use, high BMI, diabetes, physical inactivity, low vegetable and fruit intake, high red meat intake, high salt intake, and high ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) levels. The unattributable deaths and the risk factors in the baseline scenario were projected using the proportional change model, assuming constant annual change rates through 2030. The comparative risk assessment theory was used in simulated scenarios to reflect how premature mortality would be affected if the targets for risk factor control were achieved by 2030.

RESULTS

The cancer burden in Hunan significantly increased during 2009-2017. If current trends for each risk factor continued to 2030, the total premature deaths from cancers in 2030 would increase to 97,787 in Hunan Province, and the premature mortality (9.74%) would be 44.47% higher than that in 2013 (6.74%). In the combined scenario where all risk factor control targets were achieved, 14.41% of premature cancer mortality among those aged 30-70 years would be avoided compared with the business-as-usual scenario in 2030. Reductions in the prevalence of diabetes, high BMI, ambient PM2.5 levels, and insufficient fruit intake played relatively important roles in decreasing cancer premature mortality. However, the one-third reduction goal would not be achieved for most cancers except gastric cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

Existing targets on cancer-related risk factors may have important roles in cancer prevention and control. However, they are not sufficient to achieve the one-third reduction goal in premature cancer mortality in Hunan Province. More aggressive risk control targets should be adopted based on local conditions.

Geographic Distribution of Alcohol Use Among Chinese Adults - China, 2015

WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN ON THIS TOPIC?

Alcohol use is attributed to more than 200 diseases and injury conditions. Recent conventional and genetic evidence is beginning to counter the benefit of moderate drinking. The prevalence of current alcohol use was 35.7% in 2007 among the Chinese population aged 18-69 years, but comparable estimations on a provincial-level has not been reported in China.

WHAT IS ADDED BY THIS REPORT?

The prevalence of current alcohol use in the preceding year was 41.3% among the Chinese population aged 18 years and above in 2015. The prevalence of current alcohol use and the average level of daily pure alcohol intake among drinkers showed clustered and diversified geographic distribution across provinces.

WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH PRACTICE?

Given diversified demographics and geographic characteristics of the current alcohol drinking population, the alcohol control policies and intervention strategies should be adopted at a provincial level to reduce alcohol-related mortality and disability.