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Holsman KK, Haynie AC, Hollowed AB, Reum JCP, Aydin K, Hermann AJ, Cheng W, Faig A, Ianelli JN, Kearney KA, Punt AE. Ecosystem-based fisheries management forestalls climate-driven collapse. Nat Commun 2020; 11:4579. [PMID: 32917860 PMCID: PMC7486947 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-18300-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 57] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/03/2020] [Accepted: 08/10/2020] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate change is impacting fisheries worldwide with uncertain outcomes for food and nutritional security. Using management strategy evaluations for key US fisheries in the eastern Bering Sea we find that Ecosystem Based Fisheries Management (EBFM) measures forestall future declines under climate change over non-EBFM approaches. Yet, benefits are species-specific and decrease markedly after 2050. Under high-baseline carbon emission scenarios (RCP 8.5), end-of-century (2075–2100) pollock and Pacific cod fisheries collapse in >70% and >35% of all simulations, respectively. Our analysis suggests that 2.1–2.3 °C (modeled summer bottom temperature) is a tipping point of rapid decline in gadid biomass and catch. Multiyear stanzas above 2.1 °C become commonplace in projections from ~2030 onward, with higher agreement under RCP 8.5 than simulations with moderate carbon mitigation (i.e., RCP 4.5). We find that EBFM ameliorates climate change impacts on fisheries in the near-term, but long-term EBFM benefits are limited by the magnitude of anticipated change. Ecosystem Based Management measures developed to prevent overfishing could be particularly important under climate change. Here the authors combine climate and fish stock modelling to show that EBM cap implementation reduces climate-driven fishery declines under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 before midcentury. However, there are thermal tipping points beyond which potential collapses are predicted.
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Affiliation(s)
- K K Holsman
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, 7600 Sand Point Way N.E., Seattle, WA, 98115, USA. .,School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA.
| | - A C Haynie
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, 7600 Sand Point Way N.E., Seattle, WA, 98115, USA
| | - A B Hollowed
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, 7600 Sand Point Way N.E., Seattle, WA, 98115, USA.,School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA
| | - J C P Reum
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, 7600 Sand Point Way N.E., Seattle, WA, 98115, USA.,School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA.,Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies and Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia
| | - K Aydin
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, 7600 Sand Point Way N.E., Seattle, WA, 98115, USA.,School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA
| | - A J Hermann
- Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, now Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, and Ecosystem Studies, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA.,Ocean Environment Research Division, NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, 98115, USA
| | - W Cheng
- Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, now Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, and Ecosystem Studies, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA.,Ocean Environment Research Division, NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, 98115, USA
| | - A Faig
- School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA
| | - J N Ianelli
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, 7600 Sand Point Way N.E., Seattle, WA, 98115, USA.,School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA
| | - K A Kearney
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, 7600 Sand Point Way N.E., Seattle, WA, 98115, USA.,Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, now Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, and Ecosystem Studies, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA
| | - A E Punt
- School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA
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Little LR, Grafton RQ, Kompas T, Smith ADM, Punt AE, Mapstone BD. Complementarity of no-take marine reserves and individual transferable catch quotas for managing the line fishery of the great barrier reef. Conserv Biol 2011; 25:333-340. [PMID: 20964713 DOI: 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2010.01590.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/30/2023]
Abstract
Changes in the management of the fin fish fishery of the Great Barrier Reef motivated us to investigate the combined effects on economic returns and fish biomass of no-take areas and regulated total allowable catch allocated in the form of individual transferable quotas (such quotas apportion the total allowable catch as fishing rights and permits the buying and selling of these rights among fishers). We built a spatially explicit biological and economic model of the fishery to analyze the trade-offs between maintaining given levels of fish biomass and the net financial returns from fishing under different management regimes. Results of the scenarios we modeled suggested that a decrease in total allowable catch at high levels of harvest either increased net returns or lowered them only slightly, but increased biomass by up to 10% for a wide range of reserve sizes and an increase in the reserve area from none to 16% did not greatly change net returns at any catch level. Thus, catch shares and no-take reserves can be complementary and when these methods are used jointly they promote lower total allowable catches when harvest is relatively high and encourage larger no-take areas when they are small.
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Affiliation(s)
- L R Little
- CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research and CSIRO Wealth from Oceans Flagship, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia.
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