Incidence and prediction of HBsAg seroclearance in a prospective multi-ethnic HBeAg-negative chronic hepatitis B cohort

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Achieving HBsAg loss is an important landmark in the natural history of chronic hepatitis B (CHB). A more personalized approach to prediction of HBsAg loss is relevant in counseling patients. This study sought to develop and validate a prediction model for HBsAg loss based on quantitative HBsAg levels (qHBsAg) and other baseline characteristics.

METHODS

The Hepatitis B Research Network (HBRN) is a prospective cohort including 1240 untreated HBeAg-negative patients (1150 adults, 90 children) with median follow-up of 5.5 years. Incidence rates of HBsAg loss and hepatitis B surface antibody (anti-HBs) acquisition were determined, and a predictor score of HBsAg loss using readily available variables was developed and externally validated.

RESULTS

Crude incidence rates of HBsAg loss and anti-HBs acquisition were 1.6 and 1.1 per 100 person-years (PY); 67 achieved sustained HBsAg loss for an incidence rate of 1.2 per 100 PY. Increased HBsAg loss was significantly associated with older age, non-Asian race, HBV phenotype (inactive CHB vs. others), HBV genotype A, lower HBV-DNA levels, and lower and greater change in qHBsAg. The HBRN-SQuARe (sex,∆quantHBsAg, age, race) score predicted HBsAg loss over time with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) (95% CIs) at 1 and 3 years of 0.99 (95% CI: 0.987-1.00) and 0.95 (95% CI 0.91-1.00), respectively. In validation in another cohort of 1253 HBeAg-negative patients with median follow-up of 3.1 years, HBRN SQuARe predicted HBsAg loss at 1 and 3 years with AUROC values of 0.99 (0.98-1.00) and 0.88 (0.77-0.99), respectively.

CONCLUSION

HBsAg loss in predominantly untreated patients with HBeAg-negative CHB can be accurately predicted over a 3-year horizon using a simple validated score (HBRN SQuARe). This prognostication tool can be used to support patient care and counseling.

Bayesian hierarchical joint modeling of repeatedly measured continuous and ordinal markers of disease severity: Application to Ugandan diabetes data

Modeling of correlated biomarkers jointly has been shown to improve the efficiency of parameter estimates, leading to better clinical decisions. In this paper, we employ a joint modeling approach to a unique diabetes dataset, where blood glucose (continuous) and urine glucose (ordinal) measures of disease severity for diabetes are known to be correlated. The postulated joint model assumes that the outcomes are from distributions that are in the exponential family and hence modeled as multivariate generalized linear mixed effects model associated through correlated and/or shared random effects. The Markov chain Monte Carlo Bayesian approach is used to approximate posterior distribution and draw inference on the parameters. This proposed methodology provides a flexible framework to account for the hierarchical structure of the highly unbalanced data as well as the association between the 2 outcomes. The results indicate improved efficiency of parameter estimates when blood glucose and urine glucose are modeled jointly. Moreover, the simulation studies show that estimates obtained from the joint model are consistently less biased and more efficient than those in the separate models.

Serum lipids and their associations with viral levels and liver disease severity in a treatment-naïve chronic hepatitis C type 1-infected cohort

In patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, steatosis and fibrosis have been shown to be inversely associated with total cholesterol (TC) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Steatosis and fibrosis have also been found to be associated with triglyceride (TG) levels; though, the direction of the relationship is inconsistent across studies. The objective of this study was to assess whether viral level and histological factors are associated with the serum lipid profile in a treatment-naïve cohort with chronic HCV genotype 1 infection. Participants were from the prospective Study of Viral Resistance to Antiviral Therapy (Virahep-C). Fasting lipid profiles were analysed for 160 African Americans and 170 Caucasian Americans. Linear regression was used to evaluate associations of each lipid with viral load and liver disease. TG levels were significantly and directly associated with HCV levels (P = 0.0034) and steatosis (P < 0.0001). Other lipid parameters were significantly lower in those with fibrosis [HDLc (P = 0.001) and TC levels (P = 0.004)] than in those without fibrosis. In patients with HCV genotype 1 infection, more severe liver disease was associated with lower lipid levels, with the exception of TG levels that were directly related to steatosis. The direct relationship between viral load and TG levels is consistent with proposed the mechanisms of very low density lipoprotein/HCV particle secretion. In contrast, the direct relationship between TG level and steatosis is inconsistent with posited mechanisms of HCV-induced steatosis, a possible reflection of HCV genotype 1 infection and a metabolic aetiology of steatosis.

Long-term effects of the concomitant use of memantine with cholinesterase inhibition in Alzheimer disease

BACKGROUND

Patients using cholinesterase inhibitors (ChEIs) have a delay in nursing home (NH) admission compared with those who were not using the medication. There are no long-term studies of the effects of memantine in combination with ChEIs use in Alzheimer disease (AD). This study was conducted to examine the effects of ChEIs and memantine on time to death and time to NH admission.

METHODS

Time to NH admission and death was examined in 943 probable AD patients who had at least a 1-year follow-up evaluation. Of these patients, 140 (14.9%) used both ChEIs and memantine, 387 (41%) [corrected] used only ChEIs, and 416 (44.1%) [corrected] used neither. The mean (SD) follow-up time was 62.3 (35.8) months. The analysis was conducted with multivariable Cox proportional hazard models controlling for critical covariates (ie, age, education level, gender, severity of the dementia, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, heart disease, psychiatric symptoms and use of psychotropic medications).

RESULTS

Compared with those who never used cognitive enhancers, patients who used ChEIs had a significant delay in NH admission (HR: 0.37, 95% CI 0.27 to 0.49); this effect was significantly augmented with the addition of memantine (HR: 0.29, 95% CI 0.11 to 0.72) (memantine+ChEI vs ChEI alone). ChEIs alone, or in combination with memantine had no significant association on time to death.

CONCLUSIONS

This observational study revealed that the addition of the NMDA receptor antagonist memantine to the treatment of AD with ChEI significantly altered the treated history of AD by extending time to nursing home admission.