Flu and Covid-19: is there adherence to vaccination in target groups?

Background

In Italy, the flu vaccine is recommended and free for target groups (adults≥60 years old, fragile people, healthcare workers, pregnant women). During the 2020/2021 flu season, an increased vaccination coverage (+6,9%) was observed compared to the previous season, also due to the Covid-19 pandemic. We aimed to investigate how strong the adherence to the flu vaccine was by the vulnerable groups and assess if the Covid-19 vaccination campaign may have influenced the rate of flu vaccines.

Methods

At the beginning of autumn 2021 we conducted an online survey among the population of Tuscany. We collected data on demographics, health status (pregnancy, vulnerable), flu and COVID-19 vaccinations coverage and health information sources. In addition, we performed a descriptive and a risk factors analysis to assess correlation between our variables with R v 4.0.0. Significance level was set at p < 0.05.

Results

Among 408 participants, 248 (61%) belong to a vulnerable group and are recommended to receive the flu vaccine, 229 (56%) usually get the flu vaccine, 386 (95%) got the Covid-19 vaccine, 267 (65%) choose and trust the general practitioner (GP) as their health information source. There is a statistically significant association between being part of a vulnerable group and getting the seasonal flu vaccine (OR 6.63 95% CI 4.26-10.3 p < 0.001). In addition, getting the Covid-19 vaccine increases the likelihood of receiving the flu vaccine (2.90 95% CI 1.16-7.28 p = 0.018). Moreover, participants who trust their GP as their health information source (OR 1.63 CI 1.08-2.46 p = 0.019) are more likely to receive the flu vaccine; other information sources (TV, newspaper, social media) are not associated with the flu vaccine.

Conclusions

Our research shows that vulnerable groups get vaccinated against the flu. The increase in flu vaccine coverage may be due to the COVID-19 vaccines campaign. GPs play a crucial role in the health promotion, prevention and health literacy of patients.

Key messages

A time-varying SIRD model for dynamic vaccination strategies against COVID-19

Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated how the optimal allocation of the limited doses of vaccine available represents one of the main useful measures to mitigate the transmission of the infection and reduce the mortality associated with it, especially at an early stage of the pandemic. The use of a compartmental model allows us to understand which population groups to vaccinate and to what extent to act depending on the type of health or social objective to be achieved.

Methods

A time-varying susceptible-infected-recovered-deceased (SIRD) compartmental model, stratified into ten age groups, was developed on Italian data. Simulations were performed every 15 days from December 2020 to April 2021. An optimal vaccination strategy was achieved by minimizing deaths or infected, considering the total vaccine doses available.

Results

We showed how the effects of a vaccination campaign can be planned in a way that maximizes lives saved and/or minimizes infections. Regarding the minimization of deaths, the model prioritizes the elderly (&gt;80 years) and then those between 60 and 80 years, in all simulations. Regarding the cost function of new infections, the first simulation assigns all available doses to those over 90 years of age. In the later simulations, the doses are assigned mainly to the 20-29-year-old and the 89+ year old.

Conclusions

Optimal allocation of available vaccine doses is useful in mitigating transmission of infection and reducing mortality. Application of the mathematical model can be useful at the beginning of an epidemic caused by a new pathogen, when data are scarce, and it is therefore necessary to introduce a standardized approach. This kind of simulation is useful to understand whether the implemented vaccination strategy needs to be recalibrated, too.

Key messages

• Time-varying compartmentalised models can be used both to continuously inform decision-makers about changes in epidemic traits and to simulate the effects of targeted pandemic containment strategies.

• The application of compartmental models can be very useful at the onset of an epidemic to more successfully contain it and structure the health, political, and economic plan.

Pregnancy-associated plasma protein A mRNA expression as a marker for differentiated thyroid cancer: results from a "surgical" and a "cytological" series

PURPOSE

Pregnancy-associated plasma protein A (PAPPA) is a metalloproteinase initially described for its role during pregnancy. PAPPA regulates IGF ligands 1 (IGF1) bioavailability through the degradation of IGF-binding protein 4 (IGFBP4). After the cleavage of IGFBP4, free IGF1 is able to bind IGF1 receptors (IGF1R) triggering the downstream signaling. Recently, PAPPA expression has been linked with development of several cancers. No data have been published on thyroid cancer, yet.

METHODS

We evaluated PAPPA, insulin-like growth factor (IGF1), IGF1 receptors (IGF1R) and IGF-binding protein 4 (IGFBP4) mRNA expression levels in a "Surgical series" of 94 thyroid nodules (64 cancers, 16 follicular adenomas and 14 hyperplastic nodules) and in a "Cytological series" of 80 nodules from 74 patients underwent to fine-needle aspiration cytology (FNAC). In tissues, PAPPA was also evaluated by western blot.

RESULTS

We found that PAPPA expression was increased in thyroid cancer specimen at mRNA and protein levels and that, adenomas and hyperplastic nodules had an expression similar to normal tissues. When applied on thyroid cytologies, PAPPA expression was able to discriminate benign from malignant nodules contributing to pre-surgical classification of the nodules. We calculated a cut-off with a good specificity (91%) which reached 100% when combined with molecular biology.

CONCLUSION

These results show that PAPPA could represent a promising diagnostic marker for differentiated thyroid cancer.

Line-field confocal optical coherence tomography for actinic keratosis and squamous cell carcinoma: a descriptive study

BACKGROUND

Early and accurate diagnosis of cutaneous squamous cell carcinomas (SCCs) and actinic keratoses (AK) is fundamental to reduce their associated morbidity and to select the correct treatment. Line-field confocal optical coherence tomography (LC-OCT) is a new imaging device that can characterize healthy skin and basal cell carcinoma, but no large studies on keratinocyte cell tumours have yet been published.

AIM

To identify and describe LC-OCT criteria associated with SCC and AK, and to compare LC-OCT findings in these tumours.

METHODS

A retrospective observational multicentre study was conducted. Lesions were imaged with the LC-OCT device before surgery and examined histologically. LC-OCT criteria for AK/SCC were identified and their presence was evaluated in all study lesions. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to compare AK and SCCs, and to investigate differences between in situ and invasive tumours.

RESULTS

In total, 158 patients with 50 AK and 108 SCCs (62 in situ and 46 invasive) were included. Cytological and architectural alterations were found in most lesions, and differences were found between AK and SCCs. Although the visualization of the dermoepidermal junction (DEJ) was often hampered by hyperkeratosis and acanthosis, an outlined DEJ without broad strands was observed in almost all AK and almost all in situ SCCs, but in only three invasive SCCs (P < 0.001) when the DEJ was detectable.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that LC-OCT can help clinicians in the identification of AK and SCC and their differentiation, providing a real-time and noninvasive examination. Further studies are needed to confirm our data.

An age grouped time-varying compartmental model for CoViD-19 vaccination strategy

Background

Compartmental models are the simplest in the mathematical study of infectious disease dynamics. Using an age-stratified compartmental model allows us to understand which population groups to target and to what extent to act, in order to achieve predefined goals in line with policy and/or health choices. In fact, the vaccination strategies of most countries are age dependent. With this study we want to show that the optimal vaccination strategy should be different depending on the type of health or social objective to be achieved.

Methods

A time varying susceptible-infected-recovered-deceased (SIRD) compartmental models, stratified into ten age groups of ten years was developed on Italian data. An optimal vaccination strategy was obtained minimizing deaths or infectious starting from April 11, 2021, considering the total doses due to Italy by the European contract for each type of vaccine from April to June. The efficacy of each vaccine and the days between administration and the beginning of immunization were also considered.

Results

On April 11, about 75% of over-80 Italian population have received at least the first dose of vaccine. Concerning the minimization of death, the model gives the priority to the older people (>60-year-old). This confirms the Italian vaccination strategy by completing the remaining vaccinations of over-80s and then vaccinating those between 60 and 80. Instead, if the priority were to reduce the infected, the model would recommend vaccinating the most of over-80s and the classes aged 20-30 and 40-60.

Conclusions

In conclusion, the use of this model can help to vary vaccine strategies by adopting targeted approaches to effectively achieve specific objective. For example, given the different age destination of some vaccine types, a good vaccination strategy might have been to vaccinate the over 90s with one type of vaccine to protect them from high risk of death while simultaneously vaccinating younger people to contain the spread.

Key messages

The modelling approach is an excellent decision support tool for pandemic containment.

The compartmentalized model stratified by age allows to act more efficiently on subpopulations.

Baseline serum TSH levels predict the absence of thyroid dysfunction in cancer patients treated with immunotherapy

PURPOSE

Immunotherapy against immune checkpoints has significantly improved survival both in metastatic and adjuvant setting in several types of cancers. Thyroid dysfunction is the most common endocrine adverse event reported. Patients who are at risk of developing thyroid dysfunction remain to be defined. We aimed to identify predictive factors for the development of thyroid dysfunction during immunotherapy.

METHODS

This is a retrospective study including a total of 68 patients who were treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) for metastatic or unresectable advanced cancers. The majority of patients were treated with anti-PD1 drugs in monotherapy or in combination with anti-CTLA4 inhibitors. Thyroid function and anti-thyroid antibodies, before starting immunotherapy and during treatment, were evaluated. Thyroid ultrasound was also performed in a subgroup of patients at the time of enrolment in the study.

RESULTS

Eleven out of 68 patients (16.1%) developed immune-related overt thyroid dysfunction. By ROC curve analysis, we found that a serum TSH cut-off of 1.72 mUI/l, at baseline, had a good diagnostic accuracy in identifying patients without overt thyroid dysfunction (NPV = 100%, p = 0.0029). At multivariate analysis, both TSH and positive anti-thyroid antibodies (ATAbs) levels, before ICIs treatment, were independently associated with the development of overt thyroid dysfunction during immunotherapy (p = 0.0001 and p = 0.009, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Pre-treatment serum TSH and ATAbs levels may help to identify patients at high risk for primary thyroid dysfunction. Our study suggests guidance for an appropriate timely screening and for a tailored management of thyroid dysfunctions in patients treated with ICIs.

Super-high magnification dermoscopy can aid the differential diagnosis between melanoma and atypical naevi

BACKGROUND

Dermoscopy is the most widely used noninvasive imaging technique for the clinical diagnosis of melanoma (MM). Super-high (× 400) magnification dermoscopy (D400) has recently been developed; compared with traditional dermoscopy, it can reveal additional features, down to the identification of single melanocytes in the skin.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate which structures are visible at D400 and to compare them in atypical naevi and MMs.

METHODS

A prospective observational multicentre study was conducted. We enrolled patients who were identified as having atypical melanocytic skin lesions by clinical and/or × 20 magnification dermoscopy (D20) examination, and who were assigned to either excision or follow-up. Lesions were imaged by videodermoscopy at D20 and D400. The presence of pigmented cells and their features were assessed at D400.

RESULTS

In total, there were 79 patients with 57 naevi and 31 MMs. Of the total 88 lesions, 63 (71.6%) were given a histological diagnosis, while the others were followed up for ≥ 12 months, during which they showed no change and were all diagnosed as naevi. Pigmented cells were identified in > 90% of the lesions at D400. Compared with naevi, MMs had a higher frequency of scattered, large, irregular (in shape and size), dendritic/roundish, violet/blue pigmented cells under D400 (P < 0.001). Moreover, dots (P < 0.01), out-of-focus blue structureless areas (P < 0.01) and vessels (P < 0.001) were also more frequent in MMs than in naevi at D400.

CONCLUSIONS

This study showed that D400 can reveal many elements not otherwise visible in traditional D20 dermoscopy, such as pigmented cells and their morphology, which could be useful for the diagnosis of MM.

The impact of anatomical location and sun exposure on the dermoscopic recognition of atypical nevi and early melanomas: usefulness of an integrated clinical-dermoscopic method (iDScore)

BACKGROUND

The anatomical location of atypical melanocytic skin lesion (aMSL) was never combined into an algorithm for discriminating early melanomas (EM) from atypical nevi (AN).

AIMS

To investigate the impact of body location on the intuitive diagnosis performed in teledermoscopy by dermatologists of different skill levels. A further aim was to evaluate how the integration of the body location could improve an algorithm-aided diagnosis.

METHODS

We retrospectively collected 980 standardized dermoscopic images of aMSL cases (663 AN, 317 EM): data on the anatomical location were collected according to 15 body sites classified into 4 macro-areas of chronically/frequently/seldom/rarely exposure. Through a teledermatology web platform, 111 variously skilled dermoscopists performed either the intuitive diagnosis and 3 algorithm-assisted diagnostic tests (i.e. iDScore, 7-point checklist, ABCD rule) on each case, for a total of 3330 examinations.

RESULTS

In the rarely photoexposed area (side, bottom, abdomen), AN were the most tricky (i.e. highest quote of false positives), due to a frequent recognition of dermoscopic features usually considered as suggestive for melanoma in these lesions; the EM at these sites received the highest quote of false negatives, being generally interpreted as 'featureless' according to these traditional parameters, that were more frequently displayed on the chronically photoexposed area. In rarely and seldom photoexposed area, intuitive diagnosis fails to achieve adequate accuracy for all aMSLs, as the ABCD rule and the 7-point checklist; by applying the iDScore algorithm the diagnostic performance was increased by 15% in young and 17% in experts.

CONCLUSIONS

The body location of an aMSL can affect the quality of intuitive dermoscopic diagnosis, especially in sun-protected areas. Accuracy can be improved by using the iDScore algorithm that assigns a different partial score of each body site.

Structural skin changes in elderly people investigated by reflectance confocal microscopy

BACKGROUND

Reflectance confocal microscopy (RCM) is particularly suitable for the study of skin ageing because it provides nearly histological information in vivo and non-invasively. However, there are no studies that evaluated RCM skin features of a large population older than 70 years.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of our investigation was to study age-related skin changes in an elderly population by RCM and to evaluate their topographical and gender differences.

METHODS

We obtained RCM images of photoprotected (volar arm) and chronic (face) and intermittently photoexposed (dorsal forearm) body sites of 209 volunteers (105 women and 104 men, mean age: 77.5, range 74-81 years). 15 previously reported and new RCM parameters related to skin ageing were assessed.

RESULTS

Photoexposed sites had thicker suprapapillary epidermis, more linear, distant and thin furrows, higher presence of mottled pigmentation, polycyclic papillae and coarse and huddled collagen and lower presence of dermal papillae than the photoprotected site. Irregular honeycomb pattern was not higher in photoexposed sites, indicating that it is probably more dependent on intrinsic ageing. Two ageing scores defined for facial skin ageing (epidermal disarray score and epidermal hyperplasia score) were found useful for the identification of photoageing. Gender differences only concerned some RCM parameters (i.e. thickness of different layers of the epidermis, furrows and collagen score) and some body sites, in line with the fact that women and men of our cohort had no major differences in clinically visible skin ageing.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study confirmed that RCM is a powerful non-invasive technique to microscopically quantify ageing signs and our observations contribute to highlight the differences between intrinsic and extrinsic ageing.