Reliability of a Measure of Admission Intensity for Emergency Physicians

STUDY OBJECTIVE

We assess the stability of a measure of emergency department (ED) admission intensity for value-based care programs designed to reduce variation in ED admission rates. Measure stability is important to accurately assess admission rates across sites and among physicians.

METHODS

We sampled data from 358 EDs in 41 states (January 2018 to December 2021), separate from sites where the measure was derived. The measure is the ED admission rate per 100 ED visits for 16 clinical conditions and 535 included International Classification of Disease 10 diagnosis codes. We used descriptive plots and multilevel linear probability models to assess stability over time across EDs and among physicians.

RESULTS

Across included 3,571 ED-quarters, the average admission rate was 27.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 26.0% to 28.2%). The between-facility standard deviation was 9.7% (95% CI 9.0% to 10.6%), and the within-facility standard deviation was 3.0% (95% CI 2.95% to 3.10%), with an intraclass correlation coefficient of 0.91. At the physician-quarter level, the average admission rate was 28.3% (95% CI 28.0% to 28.5%) among 7,002 physicians. Relative to their site's mean in each quarter, the between-physician standard deviation was 6.7% (95% CI 6.6% to 6.8%), and the within-physician standard deviation was 5.5% (95% CI 5.5% to 5.6%), with an intraclass correlation coefficient of 0.59. Moreover, 2.9% of physicians were high-admitting in 80%+ of their practice quarters relative to their peers in the same ED and in the same quarter, whereas 3.9% were low-admitting.

CONCLUSION

The measure exhibits stability in characterizing ED-level admission rates and reliably identifies high- and low-admitting physicians.

The Cost Shifting Economics of United States Emergency Department Professional Services (2016-2019)

STUDY OBJECTIVE

We estimate the economics of US emergency department (ED) professional services, which is increasingly under strain given the longstanding effect of unreimbursed care, and falling Medicare and commercial payments.

METHODS

We used data from the Nationwide Emergency Department Sample (NEDS), Medicare, Medicaid, Health Care Cost Institute, and surveys to estimate national ED clinician revenue and costs from 2016 to 2019. We compare annual revenue and cost for each payor and calculate foregone revenue, the amount clinicians may have collected had uninsured patients had either Medicaid or commercial insurance.

RESULTS

In 576.5 million ED visits (2016 to 2019), 12% were uninsured, 24% were Medicare-insured, 32% Medicaid-insured, 28% were commercially insured, and 4% had another insurance source. Annual ED clinician revenue averaged $23.5 billion versus costs of $22.5 billion. In 2019, ED visits covered by commercial insurance generated $14.3 billion in revenues and cost $6.5 billion. Medicare visits generated $5.3 billion and cost $5.7 billion; Medicaid visits generated $3.3 billion and cost $7 billion. Uninsured ED visits generated $0.5 billion and cost $2.9 billion. The average annual foregone revenue for ED clinicians to treat the uninsured was $2.7 billion.

CONCLUSION

Large cost-shifting from commercial insurance cross-subsidizes ED professional services for other patients. This includes the Medicaid-insured, Medicare-insured, and uninsured, all of whom incur ED professional service costs that substantially exceed their revenue. Foregone revenue for treating the uninsured relative to what may have been collected if patients had health insurance is substantial.

Emergency Department Care for Children During the 2022 Viral Respiratory Illness Surge

Importance

Pediatric readiness is essential for all emergency departments (EDs). Children's experience of care may differ according to operational challenges in children's hospitals, community hospitals, and rural EDs caused by recurring and sometimes unpredictable viral illness surges.

Objective

To describe wait times, lengths of stay (LOS), and ED revisits across diverse EDs participating in a statewide quality collaborative during a surge in visits in 2022.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This retrospective cohort study included 25 EDs from the Michigan Emergency Department Improvement Collaborative data registry from January 1, 2021, through December 31, 2022. Pediatric (patient age <18 years) encounters for viral and respiratory conditions were analyzed, comparing wait times, LOS, and ED revisit rates for children's hospital, urban pediatric high-volume (≥10% of overall visits), urban pediatric low-volume (<10% of overall visits), and rural EDs.

Exposures

Surge in ED visit volumes for children with viral and respiratory illnesses from September 1 through December 31, 2022.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Prolonged ED visit wait times (arrival to clinician assigned, >4 hours), prolonged LOS (arrival to departure, >12 hours), and ED revisit rate (ED discharge and return within 72 hours).

Results

A total of 2 761 361 ED visits across 25 EDs in 2021 and 2022 were included. From September 1 to December 31, 2022, there were 301 688 pediatric visits for viral and respiratory illness, an increase of 71.8% over the 4 preceding months and 15.7% over the same period in 2021. At children's hospitals during the surge, 8.0% of visits had prolonged wait times longer than 4 hours, 8.6% had prolonged LOS longer than 12 hours, and 42 revisits occurred per 1000 ED visits. Prolonged wait times were rare among other sites. However, prolonged LOS affected 425 visits (2.2%) in urban high-pediatric volume EDs, 133 (2.6%) in urban pediatric low-volume EDs, and 176 (3.1%) in rural EDs. High visit volumes were associated with increased ED revisits across sites.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study of more than 2.7 million ED visits, a pediatric viral illness surge was associated with different pediatric acute care across EDs in the state. Clinical management pathways and quality improvement efforts may more effectively mitigate dangerous clinical conditions with strong collaborative relationships across EDs and setting of care.

An Outcome Comparison Between Geriatric and Nongeriatric Emergency Departments

STUDY OBJECTIVE

We sought to describe diagnosis rates and compare common process outcomes between geriatric emergency departments (EDs) and nongeriatric EDs participating in the American College of Emergency Physicians Clinical Emergency Data Registry (CEDR).

METHODS

We conducted an observational study of ED visits in calendar year 2021 within the CEDR by older adults. The analytic sample included 6,444,110 visits at 38 geriatric EDs and 152 matched nongeriatric EDs, with the geriatric ED status determined based on linkage to the American College of Emergency Physicians' Geriatric ED Accreditation program. Stratified by age, we assessed diagnosis rates (X/1000) for 4 common geriatric syndrome conditions and a set of common process outcomes including the ED length of stay, discharge rates, and 72-hour revisit rates.

RESULTS

Across all age categories, geriatric EDs had higher diagnosis rates than nongeriatric EDs for 3 of the 4 following geriatric syndrome conditions of interest: urinary tract infection, dementia, and delirium/altered mental status. The median ED site-level length of stay for older adults was lower at geriatric EDs compared with that at nongeriatric EDs, whereas 72-hour revisit rates were similar across all age categories. Geriatric EDs exhibited a median discharge rate of 67.5% for adults aged 65 to 74 years, 60.8% for adults aged 75 to 84 years, and 55.6% for adults aged >85 years. Comparatively, the median discharge rate at nongeriatric ED sites was 69.0% for adults aged 65 to 74 years, 64.2% for adults aged 75 to 84 years, and 61.3% for adults aged >85 years.

CONCLUSION

Geriatric EDs had higher geriatric syndrome diagnosis rates, lower ED lengths of stay, and similar discharge and 72-hour revisit rates when compared with nongeriatric EDs in the CEDR. These findings provide the first benchmarks for emergency care process outcomes in geriatric EDs compared with nongeriatric EDs.

Development and Internal Validation of an Emergency Department Admission Intensity Measure Using Data From a National Group

STUDY OBJECTIVE

We develop and assess variation in an emergency department (ED) admission intensity measure intended for value-based payment models. The measure includes ED diagnoses amenable to evidence-based protocols and where admission decisions vary based on physician discretion.

METHODS

Measure International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-10 codes were selected by face validity by 3 emergency physicians using expertise and administrative data. Feedback was sought from a separate technical panel. Using data from a national group (2018 to 2019), we assessed measure stability at the physician and facility level by quarter using descriptive plots, multilevel linear probability models, and intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC).

RESULTS

A total of 535 ICD-10 measure codes were selected from 23,590 codes. Across 127 EDs, facility-quarter admission rates averaged 26.1% (95% confidence interval [CI] 24.5 to 27.7). Between- and within-facility standard deviations were 9.2 (95% CI 8.2 to 10.5) and 2.9 (95% CI 2.7 to 3.0), respectively, with an ICC of 0.91. Most ED-quarters (749/961) fell within 2.5% of their facility's average. Among 2,398 physicians, quarterly rates averaged 29.1% (95% CI 28.6 to 29.6). The between- and within-physician standard deviation was 6.3 (95% CI 6.1 to 6.5) and 5.3 (95% CI 5.3 to 5.4), respectively, with an ICC of 0.58; 220 physicians (9.2%) had an admission rate consistently higher than average and 193 (8.0%) consistently lower.

CONCLUSION

This set of ICD-10 diagnoses demonstrates face validity and stability for quarterly admission rates at the facility and physician levels. The measure may be useful to monitor facility admission rates in value-based models and reliably identify high and low admitters within facilities to manage admission variation.

National trends in emergency conditions through the Omicron COVID-19 wave in commercial and Medicare Advantage enrollees

Objective

To evaluate trends in emergency care sensitive conditions (ECSCs) from pre-COVID (March 2018-February 2020) through Omicron (December 2021-February 2022).

Methods

This cross-sectional analysis evaluated trends in ECSCs using claims (OptumLabs Data Warehouse) from commercial and Medicare Advantage enrollees. Emergency department (ED) visits for ECSCs (acute appendicitis, aortic aneurysm/dissection, cardiac arrest/severe arrhythmia, cerebral infarction, myocardial infarction, pulmonary embolism, opioid overdose, pre-eclampsia) were reported per 100,000 person months from March 2018 to February 2022 by pandemic wave. We calculated the percent change for each pandemic wave compared to the pre-pandemic period.

Results

There were 10,268,554 ED visits (March 2018-February 2022). The greatest increases in ECSCs were seen for pulmonary embolism, cardiac arrest/severe arrhythmia, myocardial infarction, and pre-eclampsia. For commercial enrollees, pulmonary embolism visit rates increased 22.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 18.6%-26.9%) during Waves 2-3, 37.2% (95% CI, 29.1%-45.8%] during Delta, and 27.9% (95% CI, 20.3%-36.1%) during Omicron, relative to pre-pandemic rates. Cardiac arrest/severe arrhythmia visit rates increased 4.0% (95% CI, 0.2%-8.0%) during Waves 2-3; myocardial infarction rates increased 4.9% (95% CI, 2.1%-7.8%) during Waves 2-3. Similar patterns were seen in Medicare Advantage enrollees. Pre-eclampsia visit rates among reproductive-age female enrollees increased 31.1% (95% CI, 20.9%-42.2%), 23.7% (95% CI, 7.5%,-42.3%), and 34.7% (95% CI, 16.8%-55.2%) during Waves 2-3, Delta, and Omicron, respectively. ED visits for other ECSCs declined or exhibited smaller increases.

Conclusions

ED visit rates for acute cardiovascular conditions, pulmonary embolism and pre-eclampsia increased despite declines or stable rates for all-cause ED visits and ED visits for other conditions. Given the changing landscape of ECSCs, studies should identify drivers for these changes and interventions to mitigate them.

A National Snapshot of Social Determinants of Health Documentation in Emergency Departments

INTRODUCTION

Documentation and measurement of social determinants of health (SDoH) are critical to clinical care and to healthcare delivery system reforms targeting health equity. The SDoH are codified in the International Classification of Disease 10th Rev (ICD-10) Z codes. However, Z codes are listed in only 1-2% of inpatient charts. Little is known about the frequency of Z code utilization specifically among emergency department (ED) patient populations nationally.

METHODS

This was a repeated cross-sectional analysis of ED visit data in the United States from the Nationwide Emergency Department Sample from 2016-2019. We characterized the use of Z codes and described associations between Z code use and patient- and hospital-level factors including the following: age; gender; race; insurance status; ED disposition; ED size; hospital urban-rural status; ownership; and clinical conditions. We calculated unadjusted odds ratios for likelihood of Z code reporting for each ED visit.

RESULTS

Of approximately 140 million ED visits per year, 0.65% had an associated Z code in 2016, rising to 1.17% by 2019. Visits were more likely to have an associated Z code for adults age <65, male, Black, Medicaid or self-pay patients, and patients admitted to the hospital. Larger EDs, those in metropolitan areas, academic centers, and government-run hospitals were more likely to report Z codes. The most commonly associated clinical conditions were as follows: schizophrenia spectrum and other psychotic disorders; depressive disorder; and alcohol-related disorders.

CONCLUSION

There is a paucity of Z code documentation in the health records of ED patients, although use is uptrending. Further research is warranted to better understand the drivers of clinicians' use of Z codes and to improve on their utility.

Disparate Utilization of Urine Drug Screen Nationwide in the Evaluation of Acute Chest Pain

INTRODUCTION

Urine drug screens (UDS) have unproven clinical utility in emergency department (ED) chest pain presentations. A test with such limited clinical utility may exponentiate biases in care, but little is known about the epidemiology of UDS use for this indication. We hypothesized that UDS utilization varies nationally across race and gender.

METHODS

This was a retrospective observational analysis of adult ED visits for chest pain in the 2011-2019 National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey. We calculated the utilization of UDS across race/ethnicity and gender and then characterized predictors of use via adjusted logistic regression models.

RESULTS

We analyzed 13,567 adult chest pain visits, representative of 85.8 million visits nationally. Use of UDS occurred for 4.6% of visits (95% CI 3.9%-5.4%). White females underwent UDS at 3.3% of visits (95% CI 2.5%-4.2%), and Black females at 4.1% (95% CI 2.9%-5.2%). White males were tested at 5.8% of visits (95% CI 4.4%-7.2%), while Black males were tested at 9.3% of visits (95% CI 6.4%-12.2%). A multivariate logistic regression model including race, gender, and time period shows significantly increased odds of ordering UDS for Black patients (odds ratio [OR] 1.45 (95% CI 1.11-1.90, p = 0.007)) and male patients (OR 2.0 (95% CI 1.55-2.58, p < 0.001) as compared to White patients and female patients.

CONCLUSION

We identified wide disparities in the utilization of UDS for the evaluation of chest pain. If UDS were used at the rate observed for White women, Black men would undergo nearly 50,000 fewer tests annually. Future research should weigh the potential of the UDS to magnify biases in care against the unproven clinical utility of the test.

Estimated reimbursement impact of COVID-19 on emergency physicians

BACKGROUND

The delivery and financing of health care services were altered in unprecedented ways by COVID-19 and subsequent policy responses. We estimated reimbursement losses to emergency physicians in 2020 compared to 2019 related to shifting acute care utilization during COVID-19.

METHODS

This was an observational analysis of the Clinical Emergency Department Registry (CEDR) and the Nationwide Emergency Department Sample (NEDS). Study sample included all ED visits from a sample of 214 emergency department (ED) sites in the CEDR in 2019 and 2020 as well as all ED visits in the NEDS in 2019. We identified level of service billing code for evaluation and management (E&M) services, insurance payer, and geographic location of ED visits across sites in the CEDR and linked these to fee schedules to estimate total professional reimbursement across sites. Our primary analysis was to estimate reimbursement in 2020 compared to 2019 across the CEDR sites. In our secondary analysis, we linked sites in the CEDR to those in NEDS to estimate nationwide reimbursement.

RESULTS

Total E&M reimbursement for emergency physicians in the CEDR was $1.6 billion in 2019 and $1.3 billion in 2020, reflecting a 19.7% decline year over year ($308 million loss). In our secondary analysis, we estimate nationwide losses of $6.6 billion, a -19.4% decline year over year. If emergency physicians had received maximum allowable federal relief funds via CARES Act Phases 1 to 3 (2% of 2019 revenue) this would sum to $680 million (2% of the $34 billion) or 10.3% of the estimated $6.6 billion pandemic-related losses.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analyses provide an estimate of the scale of economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings warrant consideration for policymaker relief and future redesign of emergency care financing. Ultimately, the COVID-19 pandemic likely expanded known cracks in the financing of health care into steep fault lines.

Trends In Treat-And-Release Emergency Care Visits With High-Intensity Billing In The US, 2006-19

Clinicians' billing practices for professional services in the emergency department (ED) have come under scrutiny as the proportion of expensive high-intensity visits has grown in recent decades. Clinicians respond to payers' criticism by citing the worsening health status of undifferentiated patients alongside increasing expectations of ED care, with few data available to disentangle these phenomena from coding practices. We performed an observational study of US treat-and-release ED visits using data from the Nationwide Emergency Department Sample. In 2006, 4.8 percent of treat-and-release ED visits exhibited high-intensity billing, and this figure rose to 19.2 percent by 2019. The proportion of visits for older patients, those with more comorbidities, and those with nonspecific but potentially serious diagnoses grew. Of the observed growth in high-intensity billing, 47 percent was expected, based on changes in administrative measures for patient case-mix and care services. Any emergency care reimbursement reform must account for growing patient complexity and an evolving role for EDs in the health care system.

Pediatric mental health visits with prolonged length of stay in community emergency departments during COVID-19

Objectives

To characterize trends in pediatric mental health visit counts, including visits for prolonged length of stay (LOS), in a sample of emergency departments (EDs) from 29 states during COVID-19.

Methods

We performed a secondary analysis of the Clinical Emergency Data Registry from January 2020 through December 2021. We reported trends in pediatric mental health visit counts overall and for those with prolonged ED LOS. We reported incident rate ratios (IRRs) for monthly counts compared to January 2020. Among visits with LOS >24 hours, we reported on the most common diagnostic categories.

Results

There were 107 EDs from 29 states with available complete data in 2020 and 2021. Pediatric mental health visit counts resulting in a LOS greater than 6, 12, and 24 hours were higher for much of 2021. At their peak, there were 604 visits with LOS >12 hours (IRR, 2.14; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.86-2.47) and 262 visits (IRR, 2.46; 95% CI, 1.97-3.09) with LOS >24 hours in April 2021. Pediatric mental health visits with LOS >12 hours and >24 hours made up 20.9% and 7.3% of pediatric mental health visits overall, respectively. For visits with ED LOS >24 hours, the most common diagnostic categories were suicide or self-injury, depressive disorders, and mental health syndrome.

Conclusions

In this sample of 107 EDs in 29 states, visit counts with prolonged LOS >24 hours more than doubled in some months since the arrival of COVID-19. These findings are indicative of an increasingly strained emergency and mental health system.

Association of Coded Housing Instability and Hospitalization in the US

IMPORTANCE

Housing instability and other social determinants of health are increasingly being documented by clinicians. The most common reasons for hospitalization among patients with coded housing instability, however, are not well understood.

OBJECTIVE

To compare the most common reasons for hospitalization among patients with and without coded housing instability.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cross-sectional, retrospective study identified hospitalizations of patients between age 18 and 99 years using the 2017 to 2019 National Inpatient Sample. Data were analyzed from May to September 2022.

EXPOSURES

Housing instability was operationalized using 5 International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision, Social Determinants of Health Z-Codes addressing problems related to housing: homelessness; inadequate housing; discord with neighbors, lodgers, and landlords; residential institution problems; and other related problems.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcome of interest was reason for inpatient admission. Bivariate comparisons of patient characteristics, primary diagnoses, length of stay, and hospitalization costs among patients with and without coded housing instability were performed.

RESULTS

Among the 87 348 604 hospitalizations analyzed, the mean (SD) age was 58 (20) years and patients were more likely to be women (50 174 117 [57.4%]) and White (58 763 014 [67.3%]). Housing instability was coded for 945 090 hospitalizations. Hospitalized patients with housing instability, compared with those without instability, were more likely to be men (668 255 patients with coded instability [70.7%] vs 36 506 229 patients without [42.3%]; P < .001), younger (mean [SD] age 45.5 [14.0] vs 58.4 [20.2] years), Black (235 355 patients [24.9%] vs 12 929 158 patients [15.0%]), Medicaid beneficiaries (521 555 patients [55.2%] vs 15 541 175 patients [18.0%]), uninsured (117 375 patients [12.4%] vs 3 476 841 patients [4.0%]), and discharged against medical advice (28 890 patients [8.4%] vs 451 855 patients [1.6%]). The most common reason for hospitalization among patients with coded housing instability was mental, behavioral, and neurodevelopmental disorders (475 575 patients [50.3%]), which cost a total of $3.5 billion. Other common reasons included injury (69 270 patients [7.3%]) and circulatory system diseases (64 700 patients [6.8%]). Coded housing instability was also significantly associated with longer mean (SD) hospital stays (6.7 [.06] vs 4.8 [.01] days) and a cost of $9.3 billion. Hospitalized patients with housing instability had 18.6 times greater odds of having a primary diagnosis of mental, behavioral, and neurodevelopmental disorders (475 575 patients [50.3%] vs 4 470 675 patients [5.2%]; odds ratio, 18.56; 95% CI, 17.86 to 19.29).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this cross-sectional study, hospitalizations among patients with coded housing instability had higher admission rates for mental, behavioral, and neurodevelopmental disorders, longer stays, and increased costs. Findings suggest that efforts to improve housing instability, mental and behavioral health, and inpatient hospital utilization across multiple sectors may find areas for synergistic collaboration.

Hospital Occupancy and Emergency Department Boarding During the COVID-19 Pandemic

This cross-sectional study uses national benchmarking data to evaluate hospital occupancy and emergency department boarding during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Monthly Rates of Patients Who Left Before Accessing Care in US Emergency Departments, 2017-2021

This cross-sectional study investigates rates of patients who left emergency departments without being seen from 2017 to 2021.

The 2013 to 2019 Emergency Medicine Workforce: Clinician Entry and Attrition Across the US Geography

STUDY OBJECTIVE

We sought to identify longitudinal trends in workforce entry and attrition among rural and urban emergency physicians, nonemergency physicians, and advanced practice providers.

METHODS

We performed a repeated cross-sectional analysis, from 2013 to 2019, of emergency clinicians who received reimbursement for at least 50 Evaluation and Management services [99281-99285] from Medicare part B within any study year. We calculated the emergency workforce's entry and attrition rates annually. Entry was defined as clinicians newly entering or re-entering the workforce, and attrition was defined as clinicians leaving permanently or temporarily. We stratified the analyses by rural designation and assessed the proportions and state-level changes in clinician density.

RESULTS

In total, 82,499 unique clinicians performed at least 50 Evaluation and Management services within any of the 7 study years examined, including 47,000 emergency physicians, 9,029 nonemergency physicians, and 26,470 advanced practice providers. Emergency physicians made up a decreasing proportion of the workforce (68.1% in 2013; 65.5% in 2019), and advanced practice providers made up an increasing proportion of the workforce (20.9% in 2013; 26.1% in 2019). Annually, 5.9% to 6.8% (2,186 to 2,407) of emergency physicians newly entered and 0.8% to 1.4% (264 to 515) re-entered the workforce, whereas 3.8% to 4.9% (1,241 to 1,793) permanently left and 0.8% to 1.6% (276 to 521) temporarily left. Additionally, the total proportion of clinicians practicing in rural designations decreased, and advanced practice providers separately made up a substantially increasing proportion of the rural workforce (23.0% in 2013; 32.7% in 2019). Substantial state-level variation existed in the supply and demand of emergency clinician densities per 100,000 population.

CONCLUSION

The annual rate of emergency physician attrition was collectively more than 5%, well above the 3% assumed in a recently publicized projection, suggesting a potential overestimation of the anticipated future clinician surplus. Notably, the attrition of emergency physicians has disproportionately affected vulnerable rural areas. This work can inform emergency medicine workforce decisions regarding residency training, advanced practice provider utilization, and clinician employment.

Development of a Novel Emergency Department Quality Measure to Reduce Very Low-Risk Syncope Hospitalizations

STUDY OBJECTIVE

Emergency department (ED) evaluations for syncope are common, representing 1.3 million annual US visits and $2 billion in related hospitalizations. Despite evidence supporting risk stratification and outpatient management, variation in syncope hospitalization rates persist. We sought to develop a new quality measure for very low-risk adult ED patients with syncope that could be applied to administrative data.

METHODS

We developed this quality measure in 2 phases. First, we used an existing prospective, observational ED patient data set to identify a very low-risk cohort with unexplained syncope using 2 variables: age less than 50 years and no history of heart disease. We then applied this to the 2019 Nationwide Emergency Department Sample (NEDS) to assess its potential effect, assessing for hospital-level factors associated with hospitalization variation.

RESULTS

Of the 8,647 adult patients in the prospective cohort, 3,292 (38%) patients fulfilled these 2 criteria: age less than 50 years and no history of heart disease. Of these, 15 (0.46%) suffered serious adverse events within 30 days. In the NEDS, there were an estimated 566,031 patients meeting these 2 criteria, of whom 15,507 (2.7%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.48% to 3.00%) were hospitalized. We found substantial variation in the hospitalization rates for this very low-risk cohort, with a median rate of 1.7% (range 0% to 100%; interquartile range 0% to 3.9%). Factors associated with increased hospitalization rates included a yearly ED volume of more than 80,000 (odds ratio [OR] 3.14; 95% CI 2.02 to 4.89) and metropolitan teaching status (OR 1.5; 95% CI 1.24 to 1.81).

CONCLUSION

In summary, our novel syncope quality measure can assess variation in low-value hospitalizations for unexplained syncope. The application of this measure could improve the value of syncope care.

Emergency department visits for emergent conditions among older adults during the COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE

Emergency department (ED) visits have declined while excess mortality, not attributable to COVID-19, has grown. It is not known whether older adults are accessing emergency care differently from their younger counterparts. Our objective was to determine patterns of ED visit counts for emergent conditions during the COVID-19 pandemic for older adults.

DESIGN

Retrospective, observational study.

SETTING

Observational analysis of ED sites enrolled in a national clinical quality registry.

PARTICIPANTS

One hundred and sixty-four ED sites in 33 states from January 1, 2019 to November 15, 2020.

MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURES

We measured daily ED visit counts for acute myocardial infarction (AMI), stroke, sepsis, fall, and hip fracture, as well as deaths in the ED, by age categories. We estimated Poisson regression models comparing early and post-early pandemic periods (defined by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) to the pre-pandemic period. We report incident rate ratios to summarize changes in visit incidence.

RESULTS

For AMI, stroke, and sepsis, the older (75-84) and oldest old (85+ years) had the greatest decline in visit counts initially and the smallest recovery in the post-early pandemic periods. For falls, visits declined early and partially recovered uniformly across age categories. In contrast, hip fractures exhibited less change in visit rates across time periods. Deaths in the ED increased during the early pandemic period, but then fell and were persistently lower than baseline, especially for the older (75-84) and oldest old (85+ years).

CONCLUSIONS

The decline in ED visits for emergent conditions among older adults has been more pronounced and persistent than for younger patients, with fewer deaths in the ED. This is concerning given the greater prevalence and risk of poor outcomes for emergent conditions in this age group that are amenable to time-sensitive ED diagnosis and treatment, and may in part explain excess mortality during the COVID-19 era among older adults.

Analysis of Hospital Resource Availability and COVID-19 Mortality Across the United States

Although the impact of COVID-19 has varied greatly across the United States, there has been little assessment of hospital resources and mortality. We examine hospital resources and death counts among hospital referral regions from March 1 to July 26, 2020. This was an analysis of American Hospital Association data with COVID-19 data from the New York Times. Hospital-based resource availabilities were characterized per COVID-19 case. Death count was defined by monthly confirmed COVID-19 deaths. Geographic areas with fewer intensive care unit beds (incident rate ratio [IRR], 0.194; 95% CI, 0.076-0.491), nurses (IRR, 0.927; 95% CI, 0.888-0.967), and general medicine/surgical beds (IRR, 0.800; 95% CI, 0.696-0.920) per COVID-19 case were statistically significantly associated with an increased incidence rate of death in April 2020. This underscores the potential impact of innovative hospital capacity protocols and care models to create resource flexibility to limit system overload early in a pandemic.

Emergency Department Utilization for Emergency Conditions During COVID-19

Study objective

We use a national emergency medicine clinical quality registry to describe recent trends in emergency department (ED) visitation overall and for select emergency conditions.

Methods

Data were drawn from the Clinical Emergency Department Registry, including 164 ED sites across 35 states participating in the registry with complete data from January 2019 through November 15, 2020. Overall ED visit counts, as well as specific emergency medical conditions identified by International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, Clinical Modification code (myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular accident, cardiac arrest/ventricular fibrillation, and venous thromboembolisms), were tabulated. We plotted biweekly visit counts overall and across specific geographic regions.

Results

The largest declines in visit counts occurred early in the pandemic, with a nadir in April 46% lower than the 2019 monthly average. By November, overall ED visit counts had increased, but were 23% lower than prepandemic levels. The proportion of all ED visits that were for the select emergency conditions increased early in the pandemic; however, total visit counts for acute myocardial infarction and cerebrovascular disease have remained lower in 2020 compared with 2019. Despite considerable geographic and temporal variation in the trajectory of the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak, the overall pattern of ED visits observed was similar across regions and time.

Conclusion

The persistent decline in ED visits for these time-sensitive emergency conditions raises the concern that coronavirus disease 2019 may continue to impede patients from seeking essential care. Efforts thus far to encourage individuals with concerning signs and symptoms to seek emergency care may not have been sufficient.

Medicaid expansion and resource utilization in the emergency department

BACKGROUND

The Affordable Care Act (ACA) has impacted the insurance mix of emergency department (ED) visits, yet the degree to which this has influenced provider behavior is not clear.

METHODS

This was a difference-in-differences (DID) analysis of ED-visit data from five states in 2013 and 2014. Sample states included 3 expanding Medicaid under the ACA, 1 rejecting ACA funding and delaying an eligibility expansion, and 1 with no eligibility change. We included self-pay and Medicaid patients aged 27 to 64 years. A subsample analysis was done for chest pain visits. DID logistic models were estimated for likelihood of admission for given Medicaid-paid ED visits in expansion states as compared to non-expansion states. Among chest pain visits we assessed likelihood given visits resulted in admission or advanced cardiac imaging, where clinician discretion may be more significant.

RESULTS

A total of 8,157,748 ED visits with primary payer Medicaid and self-pay were included, of which 331,422 were for chest pain. The proportion of visits paid for by Medicaid rose in expansion states by between 15.8% and 38.9%. Medicaid eligibility expansion was associated with increased odds of admission (OR 1.070 [95% CI 1.051-1.089]). Among chest pain visits, expansion was associated with increased odds of admission (OR 1.294 [95% CI 1.144-1.464]), but not advanced cardiac imaging (OR 1.099 [95% CI 0.983-1.229]).

CONCLUSION

Medicaid expansion was associated with small increases in ED visit admissions across the board and among the subgroup of patients presenting with chest pain.

Complex Febrile Seizures, Lumbar Puncture, and Central Nervous System Infections: A National Perspective

OBJECTIVES

The objective was to determine the national lumbar puncture (LP) practice patterns relative to the incidence of central nervous system (CNS) infections among children presenting to the emergency department (ED) with complex febrile seizures (CFS).

METHODS

This was a retrospective study of ED visits for CFS from 2007 to 2014 in patients aged 0 to 5 years using a national sample. Primary outcomes include the frequency of LP, incidence of CNS infections, and ED disposition.

RESULTS

Of 28,810 ED visits for CFS (44.4% female; mean age = 1.39 years), LP was performed in 7,445 (25.8%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 23.5%-28.2%). There was no significant difference in the proportion due to hospital teaching status or geographical region. The proportion decreased from 31.4% to 17.8% over the study period (Rao-Scott statistic = 5.85, p < 0.001). CNS infection was diagnosed in 80 (0.3%) encounters (95% CI = 41-112). The most commonly associated infections were otitis media (16.8%), upper respiratory infections (15.8%), and other viral infections (14.6%). A total of 14,696 encounters (51.0%, 95% CI = 47.9%-54.1%) resulted in a hospital admission.

CONCLUSIONS

Although rates have been declining, LP was performed in one-fourth of ED encounters for CFS over the 8-year study period. The incidence of CNS infections was very low, however, suggesting that this procedure could be avoided in many patients.

Appropriateness of Bolus Antihypertensive Therapy for Elevated Blood Pressure in the Emergency Department

INTRODUCTION

While moderate to severely elevated blood pressure (BP) is present in nearly half of all emergency department (ED) patients, the incidence of true hypertensive emergencies in ED patients is low. Administration of bolus intravenous (IV) antihypertensive treatment to lower BP in patients without a true hypertensive emergency is a wasteful practice that is discouraged by hypertension experts; however, anecdotal evidence suggests this occurs with relatively high frequency. Accordingly, we sought to assess the frequency of inappropriate IV antihypertensive treatment in ED patients with elevated BP absent a hypertensive emergency.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study from a single, urban, teaching hospital. Using pharmacy records, we identified patients age 18-89 who received IV antihypertensive treatment in the ED. We defined treatment as inappropriate if documented suspicion for an indicated cardiovascular condition or acute end-organ injury was lacking. Data abstraction included adverse events and 30-day readmission rates, and analysis was primarily descriptive.

RESULTS

We included a total of 357 patients over an 18-month period. The mean age was 55; 51% were male and 93% black, and 127 (36.4%) were considered inappropriately treated. Overall, labetalol (61%) was the most commonly used medication, followed by enalaprilat (18%), hydralazine (18%), and metoprolol (3%). There were no significant differences between appropriate and inappropriate BP treatment groups in terms of clinical characteristics or adverse events. Hypotension or bradycardia occurred in three (2%) patients in the inappropriate treatment cohort and in two (1%) patients in the appropriately treated cohort. Survival to discharge and 30-day ED revisit rates were equivalent.

CONCLUSION

More than one in three patients who were given IV bolus antihypertensive treatment in the ED received such therapy inappropriately by our definition, suggesting that significant resources could perhaps be saved through education of providers and development of clearly defined BP treatment protocols.

Trends in the Incidence of Hypertensive Emergencies in US Emergency Departments From 2006 to 2013

Background

The incidence of hypertensive emergency in US emergency departments (ED) is not well established.

Methods and Results

This study is a descriptive epidemiological analysis of nationally representative ED visit‐level data from the Nationwide Emergency Department Sample for 2006–2013. Nationwide Emergency Department Sample is a publicly available database maintained by the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project. An ED visit was considered to be a hypertensive emergency if it met all the following criteria: diagnosis of acute hypertension, at least 1 diagnosis indicating acute target organ damage, and qualifying disposition (admission to the hospital, death, or transfer to another facility). The incidence of adult ED visits for acute hypertension increased monotonically in the period from 2006 through 2013, from 170 340 (1820 per million adult ED visits overall) to 496 894 (4610 per million). Hypertensive emergency was rare overall, accounting for 63 406 visits (677 per million adult ED visits overall) in 2006 to 176 769 visits (1670 per million) in 2013. Among adult ED visits that had any diagnosis of hypertension, hypertensive emergency accounted for 3309 per million in 2006 and 6178 per million in 2013.

Conclusions

The estimated number of visits for hypertensive emergency and the rate per million adult ED visits has more than doubled from 2006 to 2013. However, hypertensive emergencies are rare overall, occurring in about 2 in 1000 adult ED visits overall, and 6 in 1000 adult ED visits carrying any diagnosis of hypertension in 2013. This figure is far lower than what has been sometimes cited in previous literature.

Incidence of Hypertension-Related Emergency Department Visits in the United States, 2006 to 2012

Hypertension is a common chronic condition, but the burden of emergency department (ED) visits due to hypertension and associated patient and hospital characteristics are not well described. The goals of this study were to (1) establish the burden of hypertension-related ED visits, estimated by the total number, proportion of adult visits, and population-based rate, (2) evaluate for change over time, and (3) identify associated patient and hospital characteristics. The Nationwide Emergency Department Sample from 2006 to 2012 was used to identify hypertension-related ED visits (International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification codes 401 to 405, inclusive, and 437.2), and this was linked to US Census Bureau July population estimates to determine population-based rates for each study year. Negative binomial regression was performed to determine whether rates of hypertension-related ED visits changed over time. A total of 165,946,807 hypertension-related ED visits occurred during the 7-year study period (23.6% of all adult ED visits), and hypertension was the primary diagnosis for 6,399,088 (0.9% of all adult ED visits). The estimated yearly incidence rate increased 5.2% per year (incident rate ratio, 1.052; 95% confidence interval, 1.044 to 1.061; p <0.001) for hypertension-related visits and 4.4% per year (incidence rate ratio, 1.044; 95% confidence interval, 1.038 to 1.051; p <0.001) for ED visits with a primary diagnosis of hypertension. Over the same time, the proportion hospitalized decreased and the proportion of visits increased at safety net hospitals and among uninsured patients. In conclusion, these data indicate that hypertension-related ED visits are common and increasing.

Exploring the Potential of Predictive Analytics and Big Data in Emergency Care

Clinical research often focuses on resource-intensive causal inference, whereas the potential of predictive analytics with constantly increasing big data sources remains largely unexplored. Basic prediction, divorced from causal inference, is much easier with big data. Emergency care may benefit from this simpler application of big data. Historically, predictive analytics have played an important role in emergency care as simple heuristics for risk stratification. These tools generally follow a standard approach: parsimonious criteria, easy computability, and independent validation with distinct populations. Simplicity in a prediction tool is valuable, but technological advances make it no longer a necessity. Emergency care could benefit from clinical predictions built using data science tools with abundant potential input variables available in electronic medical records. Patients' risks could be stratified more precisely with large pools of data and lower resource requirements for comparing each clinical encounter to those that came before it, benefiting clinical decisionmaking and health systems operations. The largest value of predictive analytics comes early in the clinical encounter, in which diagnostic and prognostic uncertainty are high and resource-committing decisions need to be made. We propose an agenda for widening the application of predictive analytics in emergency care. Throughout, we express cautious optimism because there are myriad challenges related to database infrastructure, practitioner uptake, and patient acceptance. The quality of routinely compiled clinical data will remain an important limitation. Complementing big data sources with prospective data may be necessary if predictive analytics are to achieve their full potential to improve care quality in the emergency department.

Health literacy and the digital divide among older Americans

BACKGROUND

Among the requirements for meaningful use of electronic medical records (EMRs) is that patients must be able to interact online with information from their records. However, many older Americans may be unprepared to do this, particularly those with low levels of health literacy.

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of the study was to quantify the relationship between health literacy and use of the Internet for obtaining health information among Americans aged 65 and older.

DESIGN

We performed retrospective analysis of 2009 and 2010 data from the Health and Retirement Study, a longitudinal survey of a nationally representative sample of older Americans.

PARTICIPANTS

Subjects were community-dwelling adults aged 65 years and older (824 individuals in the general population and 1,584 Internet users).

MAIN MEASURES

Our analysis included measures of regular use of the Internet for any purpose and use of the Internet to obtain health or medical information; health literacy was measured using the Rapid Estimate of Adult Literacy in Medicine-Revised (REALM-R) and self-reported confidence filling out medical forms.

KEY RESULTS

Only 9.7% of elderly individuals with low health literacy used the Internet to obtain health information, compared with 31.9% of those with adequate health literacy. This gradient persisted after controlling for sociodemographic characteristics, health status, and general cognitive ability. The gradient arose both because individuals with low health literacy were less likely to use the Internet at all (OR = 0.36 [95% CI 0.24 to 0.54]) and because, among those who did use the Internet, individuals with low health literacy were less likely to use it to get health or medical information (OR = 0.60 [95% CI 0.47 to 0.77]).

CONCLUSION

Low health literacy is associated with significantly less use of the Internet for health information among Americans aged 65 and older. Web-based health interventions targeting older adults must address barriers to substantive use by individuals with low health literacy, or risk exacerbating the digital divide.

Access to care issues and the role of EDs in the wake of the Affordable Care Act

CONTEXT

Americans who received public insurance under the Affordable Care Act use the emergency department (ED) more frequently than before they were insured. If newly enrolled patients cannot access primary care and instead rely on the ED, they may not enjoy the full benefits of health care services.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of the study is to characterize reasons for ED utilization among American adults by insurance status and usual source of care.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Cross-sectional analysis of adult sample respondents to the 2013 National Health Interview Survey reporting 1 or more ED visits in the preceding 12 months.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Among American ED users that reported no usual source of care and who reported relying on the ED, 27.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 23.6%-32.2%) and 35.1% (95% CI, 28.0%-43.0%) noted at least 1 issue of access and none of acuity as a reason for their last ED visit, as compared to 17.7% (95% CI, 16.3%-19.2%) among those with a stable usual source of care.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Although past research has shown that those who lack a stable usual source of care use the ED more often, this is the first population-level study to demonstrate their propensity for lack of access-based utilization. In the wake of the Affordable Care Act, EDs will need to evolve into outlets that service a wider range of health care needs rather than function in their current capacity, which is largely to address acute issues in isolation.