Procalcitonin is useful whereas C-reactive protein is not, to predict complications following coronary artery bypass surgery

Background: The respective value of procalcitonin (PCT) and C-reactive protein (CRP) as markers of postoperative complications after coronary bypass surgery is unclear. Therefore, complications during one week after surgery were studied to evaluate the predictive role of PCT and CRP changes during the immediate postoperative period.

Methods: Thirty-two patients, in whom an uneventful immediate postoperative course was anticipated, were prospectively enrolled and followed-up to the 7th postoperative day. At the end of the follow-up, patients were divided into two groups. Group A were patients with an uncomplicated postoperative course and Group B were patients with a complicated postoperative course.

Results: Serum samples were drawn for PCT and CRP determination after induction of anesthesia (baseline), at the end of surgery and daily until postoperative day 2. Baseline serum PCT concentrations were 0.119 ± 0.09 and 0.209 ± 0.21 ng/mL in Groups A and B, respectively (NS). Serum PCT concentration increased compared with baseline in both groups during the first two days after surgery. The increase in serum PCT concentration was significantly greater in Group B than A patients ( p<0.0002). Considering a perioperative abnormal cut-off value of > 0.5 ng/mL, there were none in Group A versus 57% in Group B ( p<0.0001). Baseline serum CRP concentrations were 1.449 ± 1.30 and 1.589 ± 1.35 ng/mL in Groups A and B, respectively (NS). After surgery, CRP increased significantly compared with baseline in both groups. When changes in time-varying variables were included in a logistic model, complications were predicted by changes (between baseline and end of surgery values) of PCT (coefficient=9.410; t=2.18) and heart rate (coefficient=0.075; t=1.57), whereas changes of CRP, white blood cells, mean blood and central venous pressures did not contribute statistically. The model constant was -4.827 (t= -2.43) and the ROC curve area was 0.8971. Thus, absolute PCT changes of 0.20, 0.40 and 0.60 ng/mL carry an approximate risk of 5, 26 and 69%, respectively, of postoperative complications in the time frame of this study.

Conclusions: A postoperative serum PCT concentration of >0.5 ng/mL is highly suggestive of a postoperative complication. CRP changes do not contribute to predictive information.

HIF-1α and VEGF: Immunohistochemical Profile and Possible Function in Human Aortic Valve Stenosis

Calcific aortic stenosis (CAS) is the most common valvular disease in Western countries. Histological findings in patients with CAS extremely resemble those of atherosclerosis and include accumulation and modification of lipoproteins, inflammation, extracellular matrix remodeling, and calcification. Angiogenesis is another prominent feature of CAS; however, there is only a limited amount of data available regarding the mechanisms behind the pathological neovascularization of a structure that is originally avascular. The present study aims to identify the molecular basis that regulates blood vessel growth in stenotic aortic valves, focusing on the role of HIF-1α and VEGF pathway. A total of 19 native degenerating aortic valves obtained at valve replacement surgery have been processed for Western blot, immunohistochemical, morphometric, and ultrastructural analyses. First, we have demonstrated the adverse ECM remodeling and the significant thickening of the leaflet also showing that HIF-1α and VEGF are significantly upregulated in the stenotic valves, are locally produced and colocalize with angiogenesis and areas of calcification. Next, we have characterized, for the first time to the best of our knowledge, the morphological features of the neovasculature evidencing the presence of intact blood vessels in close proximity to the mineralized zones. These results suggest that the complex structural remodeling of the matrix might reduce oxygen availability in the valve cusp contributing to the stabilization of HIF-1α that in turn induces a metabolic adaptation through the upregulation of VEGF and the formation of new blood vessels not only to overcome the hypoxic state but also to sustain the calcification process.

Internal mammary artery atherosclerosis: an ultrastructural study of two cases

Atherosclerosis of the internal mammary artery (IMA) is generally regarded as a rare (but existent) pathological entity with only a few cases reported in the most recent literature. The only study which to our knowledge has investigated the ultrastructural features of IMA atherosclerosis, demonstrate the presence of endothelial cells loss, defects of internal elastic lamina with no evidence of lipid accumulation. In the present study, we describe two cases of IMA atherosclerosis in which ultrastructural analysis revealed the presence of a typical atherosclerotic plaque morphology with infiltration of inflammatory cells, formation of intraplaque lipid pools, and accumulation of lipid-laden foam cells throughout the thickened intima, never described in this rare lesion before. Microscopically, the lesions were also characterized by intimal thickening, invagination of endothelial cells, migration of smooth muscle cells with splitting, fenestration and/or fragmentation of the elastic sheets. Our observations add new data to the scarce and contradictory literature and to this largely understudied vascular disorder.

Ultrastructural analysis and electron microscopic localization of Nox4 in healthy and atherosclerotic human aorta

During diverse pathological conditions, vascular smooth muscle cells (SMCs) characteristically change from a quiescent, contractile phenotype to a proliferative, synthetic state, migrate toward the intima, and synthesize excess extracellular matrix. Although reactive oxygen species (ROS) are generally considered to be toxic to cells, recent evidence suggests that they may also modulate multiple signaling pathways. The vascular system contains several sources of ROS, among which NADPH oxidases (NOXes) have been shown to take an important part in the regulation of cell function, with effects on growth and proliferation. In the present study, the authors investigate the ultrastructural features of SMCs and the expression profile of Nox4 in healthy and atherosclerotic human aorta to explore the possibility of a relationship between Nox4 and SMCs differentiation state. The data extend at the level of immunoelectron microscopy previous observations, demonstrating for the first time the precise distribution and the differential expression of Nox4 in the morphologically distinct SMC types of healthy and diseased human aorta.

Long-term mortality prediction after operations for type A ascending aortic dissection

BACKGROUND

There are few long-term mortality prediction studies after acute aortic dissection (AAD) Type A and none were performed using new models such as neural networks (NN) or support vector machines (SVM) which may show a higher discriminatory potency than standard multivariable models.

METHODS

We used 32 risk factors identified by Literature search and previously assessed in short-term outcome investigations. Models were trained (50%) and validated (50%) on 2 random samples from a consecutive 235-patient cohort. NN were run only on patients with complete data for all included variables (N = 211); SVM on the overall group. Discrimination was assessed by receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC) and Gini's coefficients along with classification performance.

RESULTS

There were 84 deaths (36%) occurring at 564 +/- 48 days (95%CI from 470 to 658 days). Patients with complete variables had a slightly lower death rate (60 of 211, 28%). NN classified 44 of 60 (73%) dead patients and 147 of 151 (97%) long-term survivors using 5 covariates: immediate post-operative chronic renal failure, circulatory arrest time, the type of surgery on ascending aorta plus hemi-arch, extracorporeal circulation time and the presence of Marfan habitus. Global accuracies of training and validation NN were excellent with AUC respectively 0.871 and 0.870 but classification errors were high among patients who died. Training SVM, using a larger number of covariates, showed no false negative or false positive cases among 118 randomly selected patients (error = 0%, AUC 1.0) whereas validation SVM, among 117 patients, provided 5 false negative and 11 false positive cases (error = 22%, AUC 0.821, p < 0.01 versus NN results). An html file was produced to adopt and manipulate the selected parameters for practical predictive purposes.

CONCLUSIONS

Both NN and SVM accurately selected a few operative and immediate post-operative factors and the Marfan habitus as long-term mortality predictors in AAD Type A. Although these factors were not new per se, their combination may be used in practice to index death risk post-operatively with good accuracy.

Artificial neural networks versus multiple logistic regression to predict 30-day mortality after operations for type a ascending aortic dissection

Background:

There are few comparative reports on the overall accuracy of neural networks (NN), assessed only versus multiple logistic regression (LR), to predict events in cardiovascular surgery studies and none has been performed among acute aortic dissection (AAD) Type A patients.

Objectives:

We aimed at investigating the predictive potential of 30-day mortality by a large series of risk factors in AAD Type A patients comparing the overall performance of NN versus LR.

Methods:

We investigated 121 plus 87 AAD Type A patients consecutively operated during 7 years in two Centres. Forced and stepwise NN and LR solutions were obtained and compared, using receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) and Gini’s coefficients. Both NN and LR models were re-applied to data from the second Centre to adhere to a methodological imperative with NN.

Results:

Forced LR solutions provided AUC 87.9±4.1% (CI: 80.7 to 93.2%) and 85.7±5.2% (CI: 78.5 to 91.1%) in the first and second Centre, respectively. Stepwise NN solution of the first Centre had AUC 90.5±3.7% (CI: 83.8 to 95.1%). The Gini’s coefficients for LR and NN stepwise solutions of the first Centre were 0.712 and 0.816, respectively. When the LR and NN stepwise solutions were re-applied to the second Centre data, Gini’s coefficients were, respectively, 0.761 and 0.850. Few predictors were selected in common by LR and NN models: the presence of pre-operative shock, intubation and neurological symptoms, immediate post-operative presence of dialysis in continuous and the quantity of post-operative bleeding in the first 24 h. The length of extracorporeal circulation, post-operative chronic renal failure and the year of surgery were specifically detected by NN.

Conclusions:

Different from the International Registry of AAD, operative and immediate post-operative factors were seen as potential predictors of short-term mortality. We report a higher overall predictive accuracy with NN than with LR. However, the list of potential risk factors to predict 30-day mortality after AAD Type A by NN model is not enlarged significantly.

Comparative Application of Multivariate Models Developed in Italy and Europe to Predict Early (28 Days) and Late (1 Year) Postoperative Death after On- or Off-Pump Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to compare the risk of death predictive performances of the OP-RISK, EuroSCORE, and Italian coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) Outcome studies' functions when applied to a southern Italian cardiac surgery center (Sant'Anna hospital in Catanzaro [SAHCZ]), which contributed data to the Italian CABG Outcome study, and to see if this predictive index may be applied to on- and off-pump interventions.

METHODS

The OP-RISK study data set was used to derive Weibull and logistic functions to predict early (28 days) and late (1 year) death rates following CABG based on ejection fraction, heart rate, age, and aortic cross-clamping time. Then the data of 385 CABG patients who underwent operations in 2003 in SAHCZ were collected with 1-year follow-up data, which also included data used to obtain EuroSCORE and Italian CABG Outcome study risk indices.

RESULTS

Short- and long-term observed mortality rates after CABG were 2.59% and 5.88% in the SAHCZ series, largely dependent on whether CABG was alone (1.26% and 3.55%) or associated with ventriculoplasty (4.87% and 10.81%) or valve surgery (15.38% and 28.57%). There was a significant increasing trend (P = .002) of observed death rates in equinumeric tertiles of either OP-RISK (both Weibull and logistic) or EuroSCORE in the short term, whereas the trend was not significant for the Italian CABG Outcome study index. OP-RISK functions were significantly predictive for the long term (P < .005), as well as when only ejection fraction, heart rate, and age were considered (P < .011).

CONCLUSIONS

It is essential to use clinical data following CABG when outcome prediction is concerned. OP-RISK and EuroSCORE indices are equally predictive in our experience, and a statistically significant (P = 0.02) difference was observed with the Italian CABG Outcome study index, whose trend in tertiles of calculated risk was not apparent, which is unexpected and unexplained. OP-RISK functions were adequate for long-term prediction. Since aortic cross-clamping time may be absent from tested predictive functions (for both short and long term), off-pump CABG mortality may also be predicted as similar to on-pump intervention mortality.

Indexed effective orifice area after mechanical aortic valve replacement does not affect left ventricular mass regression in elderly

OBJECTIVE

After aortic valve replacement, the effects of a small functional prosthesis on the extent and pattern of regression of left ventricular hypertrophy and on clinical outcomes may be less significant in older patients with low cardiac output requirements. The objective of this study was therefore to determine whether patient-prosthesis mismatch affects left ventricular mass regression in the elderly.

METHODS

The population studied was made up of 88 patients over 65 years of age with pure aortic stenosis who underwent mechanical aortic valve replacement. The effective orifice area index was calculated for each patient on the basis of the projected prosthesis in vivo effective orifice area. It was considered a continuous variable and influence of its entire range of values on the extent of left ventricular mass regression was analyzed in a multivariate prediction model.

RESULTS

Even though, in the group with prosthesis-patient mismatch there was a trend for lower postoperative left ventricular mass index (115+/-24 g/m(2) vs 102+/-27 g/m(2), p=0.24) and postoperative peak trans-prosthetic gradients (32+/-9.8 mmHg vs 28.9+/-7.79 mmHg, p=0.35) these differences were not statistically significant. The prevalence of residual left ventricular hypertrophy at follow-up was 50% in the group with patient-prosthesis mismatch and 50% in the group without patient-prosthesis mismatch (p=0.83). In multivariate analysis the only factors associated with indexed left ventricular mass were the follow-up time (p=0.015, r(2)=0.22) and preoperative indexed left ventricular mass (p=0.0012, r(2)=0.11).

CONCLUSIONS

The major finding of our study is that patient-prosthesis mismatch does not affect left ventricular mass regression in patients older than 65 with pure aortic stenosis who underwent mechanical aortic valve replacement. In older patients with low cardiac output requirements, even a small change in the valve effective orifice area after aortic valve replacement with modern efficient mechanical prosthesis, will result in a marked reduction of pressure gradient and this will be associated with a significant regression of left ventricular mass.