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Cardoso P, Young KG, Nair ATN, Hopkins R, McGovern AP, Haider E, Karunaratne P, Donnelly L, Mateen BA, Sattar N, Holman RR, Bowden J, Hattersley AT, Pearson ER, Jones AG, Shields BM, McKinley TJ, Dennis JM. Phenotype-based targeted treatment of SGLT2 inhibitors and GLP-1 receptor agonists in type 2 diabetes. Diabetologia 2024; 67:822-836. [PMID: 38388753 PMCID: PMC10955037 DOI: 10.1007/s00125-024-06099-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/17/2023] [Accepted: 01/04/2024] [Indexed: 02/24/2024]
Abstract
AIMS/HYPOTHESIS A precision medicine approach in type 2 diabetes could enhance targeting specific glucose-lowering therapies to individual patients most likely to benefit. We aimed to use the recently developed Bayesian causal forest (BCF) method to develop and validate an individualised treatment selection algorithm for two major type 2 diabetes drug classes, sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP1-RA). METHODS We designed a predictive algorithm using BCF to estimate individual-level conditional average treatment effects for 12-month glycaemic outcome (HbA1c) between SGLT2i and GLP1-RA, based on routine clinical features of 46,394 people with type 2 diabetes in primary care in England (Clinical Practice Research Datalink; 27,319 for model development, 19,075 for hold-out validation), with additional external validation in 2252 people with type 2 diabetes from Scotland (SCI-Diabetes [Tayside & Fife]). Differences in glycaemic outcome with GLP1-RA by sex seen in clinical data were replicated in clinical trial data (HARMONY programme: liraglutide [n=389] and albiglutide [n=1682]). As secondary outcomes, we evaluated the impacts of targeting therapy based on glycaemic response on weight change, tolerability and longer-term risk of new-onset microvascular complications, macrovascular complications and adverse kidney events. RESULTS Model development identified marked heterogeneity in glycaemic response, with 4787 (17.5%) of the development cohort having a predicted HbA1c benefit >3 mmol/mol (>0.3%) with SGLT2i over GLP1-RA and 5551 (20.3%) having a predicted HbA1c benefit >3 mmol/mol with GLP1-RA over SGLT2i. Calibration was good in hold-back validation, and external validation in an independent Scottish dataset identified clear differences in glycaemic outcomes between those predicted to benefit from each therapy. Sex, with women markedly more responsive to GLP1-RA, was identified as a major treatment effect modifier in both the UK observational datasets and in clinical trial data: HARMONY-7 liraglutide (GLP1-RA): 4.4 mmol/mol (95% credible interval [95% CrI] 2.2, 6.3) (0.4% [95% CrI 0.2, 0.6]) greater response in women than men. Targeting the two therapies based on predicted glycaemic response was also associated with improvements in short-term tolerability and long-term risk of new-onset microvascular complications. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION Precision medicine approaches can facilitate effective individualised treatment choice between SGLT2i and GLP1-RA therapies, and the use of routinely collected clinical features for treatment selection could support low-cost deployment in many countries.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pedro Cardoso
- Institute of Biomedical & Clinical Science, University of Exeter Medical School, Exeter, UK
| | - Katie G Young
- Institute of Biomedical & Clinical Science, University of Exeter Medical School, Exeter, UK
| | - Anand T N Nair
- Division of Molecular & Clinical Medicine, Ninewells Hospital and Medical School, University of Dundee, Dundee, UK
| | - Rhian Hopkins
- Institute of Biomedical & Clinical Science, University of Exeter Medical School, Exeter, UK
| | - Andrew P McGovern
- Institute of Biomedical & Clinical Science, University of Exeter Medical School, Exeter, UK
| | - Eram Haider
- Division of Molecular & Clinical Medicine, Ninewells Hospital and Medical School, University of Dundee, Dundee, UK
| | - Piyumanga Karunaratne
- Division of Molecular & Clinical Medicine, Ninewells Hospital and Medical School, University of Dundee, Dundee, UK
| | - Louise Donnelly
- Division of Molecular & Clinical Medicine, Ninewells Hospital and Medical School, University of Dundee, Dundee, UK
| | - Bilal A Mateen
- Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, UK
| | - Naveed Sattar
- Institute of Cardiovascular and Medical Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Rury R Holman
- Diabetes Trials Unit, Oxford Centre for Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- Oxford NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, Churchill Hospital, Oxford, UK
| | - Jack Bowden
- Institute of Biomedical & Clinical Science, University of Exeter Medical School, Exeter, UK
| | - Andrew T Hattersley
- Institute of Biomedical & Clinical Science, University of Exeter Medical School, Exeter, UK
| | - Ewan R Pearson
- Division of Molecular & Clinical Medicine, Ninewells Hospital and Medical School, University of Dundee, Dundee, UK
| | - Angus G Jones
- Institute of Biomedical & Clinical Science, University of Exeter Medical School, Exeter, UK
| | - Beverley M Shields
- Institute of Biomedical & Clinical Science, University of Exeter Medical School, Exeter, UK
| | - Trevelyan J McKinley
- Institute of Biomedical & Clinical Science, University of Exeter Medical School, Exeter, UK
| | - John M Dennis
- Institute of Biomedical & Clinical Science, University of Exeter Medical School, Exeter, UK.
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Schön M, Prystupa K, Mori T, Zaharia OP, Bódis K, Bombrich M, Möser C, Yurchenko I, Kupriyanova Y, Strassburger K, Bobrov P, Nair ATN, Bönhof GJ, Strom A, Delgado GE, Kaya S, Guthoff R, Stefan N, Birkenfeld AL, Hauner H, Seissler J, Pfeiffer A, Blüher M, Bornstein S, Szendroedi J, Meyhöfer S, Trenkamp S, Burkart V, Schrauwen-Hinderling VB, Kleber ME, Niessner A, Herder C, Kuss O, März W, Pearson ER, Roden M, Wagner R. Analysis of type 2 diabetes heterogeneity with a tree-like representation: insights from the prospective German Diabetes Study and the LURIC cohort. Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol 2024; 12:119-131. [PMID: 38142707 DOI: 10.1016/s2213-8587(23)00329-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/26/2023] [Revised: 11/01/2023] [Accepted: 11/07/2023] [Indexed: 12/26/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Heterogeneity in type 2 diabetes can be represented by a tree-like graph structure by use of reversed graph-embedded dimensionality reduction. We aimed to examine whether this approach can be used to stratify key pathophysiological components and diabetes-related complications during longitudinal follow-up of individuals with recent-onset type 2 diabetes. METHODS For this cohort analysis, 927 participants aged 18-69 years from the German Diabetes Study (GDS) with recent-onset type 2 diabetes were mapped onto a previously developed two-dimensional tree based on nine simple clinical and laboratory variables, residualised for age and sex. Insulin sensitivity was assessed by a hyperinsulinaemic-euglycaemic clamp, insulin secretion was assessed by intravenous glucose tolerance test, hepatic lipid content was assessed by 1 H magnetic resonance spectroscopy, serum interleukin (IL)-6 and IL-18 were assessed by ELISA, and peripheral and autonomic neuropathy were assessed by functional and clinical measures. Participants were followed up for up to 16 years. We also investigated heart failure and all-cause mortality in 794 individuals with type 2 diabetes undergoing invasive coronary diagnostics from the Ludwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health (LURIC) cohort. FINDINGS There were gradients of clamp-measured insulin sensitivity (both dimensions: p<0·0001) and insulin secretion (pdim1<0·0001, pdim2=0·00097) across the tree. Individuals in the region with the lowest insulin sensitivity had the highest hepatic lipid content (n=205, pdim1<0·0001, pdim2=0·037), pro-inflammatory biomarkers (IL-6: n=348, pdim1<0·0001, pdim2=0·013; IL-18: n=350, pdim1<0·0001, pdim2=0·38), and elevated cardiovascular risk (nevents=143, pdim1=0·14, pdim2<0·00081), whereas individuals positioned in the branch with the lowest insulin secretion were more prone to require insulin therapy (nevents=85, pdim1=0·032, pdim2=0·12) and had the highest risk of diabetic sensorimotor polyneuropathy (nevents=184, pdim1=0·012, pdim2=0·044) and cardiac autonomic neuropathy (nevents=118, pdim1=0·0094, pdim2=0·06). In the LURIC cohort, all-cause mortality was highest in the tree branch showing insulin resistance (nevents=488, pdim1=0·12, pdim2=0·0032). Significant gradients differentiated individuals having heart failure with preserved ejection fraction from those who had heart failure with reduced ejection fraction. INTERPRETATION These data define the pathophysiological underpinnings of the tree structure, which has the potential to stratify diabetes-related complications on the basis of routinely available variables and thereby expand the toolbox of precision diabetes diagnosis. FUNDING German Diabetes Center, German Federal Ministry of Health, Ministry of Culture and Science of the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, German Diabetes Association, German Center for Diabetes Research, European Community, German Research Foundation, and Schmutzler Stiftung.
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Affiliation(s)
- Martin Schön
- Institute for Clinical Diabetology, German Diabetes Center, Leibniz Center for Diabetes Research at Heinrich Heine University, Düsseldorf, Germany; German Center for Diabetes Research, München-Neuherberg, Germany; Division of Endocrinology and Diabetology, Medical Faculty and University Hospital Düsseldorf, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf, Germany
| | - Katsiaryna Prystupa
- Institute for Clinical Diabetology, German Diabetes Center, Leibniz Center for Diabetes Research at Heinrich Heine University, Düsseldorf, Germany; German Center for Diabetes Research, München-Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Tim Mori
- German Center for Diabetes Research, München-Neuherberg, Germany; Institute for Biometrics and Epidemiology, German Diabetes Center, Leibniz Center for Diabetes Research at Heinrich Heine University, Düsseldorf, Germany
| | - Oana P Zaharia
- Institute for Clinical Diabetology, German Diabetes Center, Leibniz Center for Diabetes Research at Heinrich Heine University, Düsseldorf, Germany; German Center for Diabetes Research, München-Neuherberg, Germany; Division of Endocrinology and Diabetology, Medical Faculty and University Hospital Düsseldorf, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf, Germany
| | - Kálmán Bódis
- Institute for Clinical Diabetology, German Diabetes Center, Leibniz Center for Diabetes Research at Heinrich Heine University, Düsseldorf, Germany; German Center for Diabetes Research, München-Neuherberg, Germany; Division of Endocrinology and Diabetology, Medical Faculty and University Hospital Düsseldorf, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf, Germany
| | - Maria Bombrich
- Institute for Clinical Diabetology, German Diabetes Center, Leibniz Center for Diabetes Research at Heinrich Heine University, Düsseldorf, Germany; German Center for Diabetes Research, München-Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Clara Möser
- Institute for Clinical Diabetology, German Diabetes Center, Leibniz Center for Diabetes Research at Heinrich Heine University, Düsseldorf, Germany; German Center for Diabetes Research, München-Neuherberg, Germany; Division of Endocrinology and Diabetology, Medical Faculty and University Hospital Düsseldorf, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf, Germany
| | - Iryna Yurchenko
- Institute for Clinical Diabetology, German Diabetes Center, Leibniz Center for Diabetes Research at Heinrich Heine University, Düsseldorf, Germany; German Center for Diabetes Research, München-Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Yuliya Kupriyanova
- Institute for Clinical Diabetology, German Diabetes Center, Leibniz Center for Diabetes Research at Heinrich Heine University, Düsseldorf, Germany; German Center for Diabetes Research, München-Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Klaus Strassburger
- German Center for Diabetes Research, München-Neuherberg, Germany; Institute for Biometrics and Epidemiology, German Diabetes Center, Leibniz Center for Diabetes Research at Heinrich Heine University, Düsseldorf, Germany
| | - Pavel Bobrov
- German Center for Diabetes Research, München-Neuherberg, Germany; Institute for Biometrics and Epidemiology, German Diabetes Center, Leibniz Center for Diabetes Research at Heinrich Heine University, Düsseldorf, Germany
| | - Anand T N Nair
- Division of Population Health and Genomics, School of Medicine, University of Dundee, Dundee, UK
| | - Gidon J Bönhof
- Institute for Clinical Diabetology, German Diabetes Center, Leibniz Center for Diabetes Research at Heinrich Heine University, Düsseldorf, Germany; German Center for Diabetes Research, München-Neuherberg, Germany; Division of Endocrinology and Diabetology, Medical Faculty and University Hospital Düsseldorf, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf, Germany
| | - Alexander Strom
- Institute for Clinical Diabetology, German Diabetes Center, Leibniz Center for Diabetes Research at Heinrich Heine University, Düsseldorf, Germany; German Center for Diabetes Research, München-Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Graciela E Delgado
- 5th Department of Medicine (Nephrology, Hypertensiology, Rheumatology, Endocrinology, Diabetology), Medical Faculty Mannheim, University of Heidelberg, Mannheim, Germany; Center for Preventive Medicine and Digital Health Baden-Württemberg, Medical Faculty Mannheim, Heidelberg University, Mannheim, Germany
| | - Sema Kaya
- Department of Ophthalmology, Medical Faculty and University Hospital Düsseldorf, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf, Germany
| | - Rainer Guthoff
- Department of Ophthalmology, Medical Faculty and University Hospital Düsseldorf, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf, Germany
| | - Norbert Stefan
- Institute for Diabetes Research and Metabolic Diseases, University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany
| | - Andreas L Birkenfeld
- Institute for Diabetes Research and Metabolic Diseases, University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany
| | - Hans Hauner
- Institute of Nutritional Medicine, School of Medicine, Technical University of Munich, München, Germany
| | - Jochen Seissler
- Diabetes Research Group, Medical Department 4, Ludwig-Maximilians University Munich, München, Germany
| | - Andreas Pfeiffer
- German Institute of Human Nutrition Potsdam-Rehbrücke, Nuthetal, Germany
| | - Matthias Blüher
- Department of Medicine, Endocrinology and Nephrology, University of Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany; Helmholtz Institute for Metabolic, Obesity and Vascular Research of the Helmholtz Zentrum München at the University of Leipzig and University Hospital Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Stefan Bornstein
- Department of Internal Medicine III, Dresden University of Technology, Dresden, Germany
| | - Julia Szendroedi
- Department of Medicine I and Clinical Chemistry, University Hospital of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Svenja Meyhöfer
- German Center for Diabetes Research, München-Neuherberg, Germany; Institute for Endocrinology & Diabetes, University of Lübeck, Lübeck, Germany; Department of Internal Medicine 1, Endocrinology & Diabetes, University of Lübeck, Lübeck, Germany
| | - Sandra Trenkamp
- Institute for Clinical Diabetology, German Diabetes Center, Leibniz Center for Diabetes Research at Heinrich Heine University, Düsseldorf, Germany; German Center for Diabetes Research, München-Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Volker Burkart
- Institute for Clinical Diabetology, German Diabetes Center, Leibniz Center for Diabetes Research at Heinrich Heine University, Düsseldorf, Germany; German Center for Diabetes Research, München-Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Vera B Schrauwen-Hinderling
- Institute for Clinical Diabetology, German Diabetes Center, Leibniz Center for Diabetes Research at Heinrich Heine University, Düsseldorf, Germany; German Center for Diabetes Research, München-Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Marcus E Kleber
- 5th Department of Medicine (Nephrology, Hypertensiology, Rheumatology, Endocrinology, Diabetology), Medical Faculty Mannheim, University of Heidelberg, Mannheim, Germany; SYNLAB MVZ für Humangenetik Mannheim GmbH, Mannheim, Germany
| | - Alexander Niessner
- Division of Cardiology, Department of Internal Medicine II, Medical University of Vienna, Austria
| | - Christian Herder
- Institute for Clinical Diabetology, German Diabetes Center, Leibniz Center for Diabetes Research at Heinrich Heine University, Düsseldorf, Germany; German Center for Diabetes Research, München-Neuherberg, Germany; Division of Endocrinology and Diabetology, Medical Faculty and University Hospital Düsseldorf, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf, Germany
| | - Oliver Kuss
- German Center for Diabetes Research, München-Neuherberg, Germany; Institute for Biometrics and Epidemiology, German Diabetes Center, Leibniz Center for Diabetes Research at Heinrich Heine University, Düsseldorf, Germany; Centre for Health and Society, Medical Faculty and University Hospital Düsseldorf, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf, Germany
| | - Winfried März
- 5th Department of Medicine (Nephrology, Hypertensiology, Rheumatology, Endocrinology, Diabetology), Medical Faculty Mannheim, University of Heidelberg, Mannheim, Germany; SYNLAB Academy, SYNLAB Holding Deutschland GmbH, Augsburg and Mannheim, Munich, Germany
| | - Ewan R Pearson
- Division of Population Health and Genomics, School of Medicine, University of Dundee, Dundee, UK
| | - Michael Roden
- Institute for Clinical Diabetology, German Diabetes Center, Leibniz Center for Diabetes Research at Heinrich Heine University, Düsseldorf, Germany; German Center for Diabetes Research, München-Neuherberg, Germany; Division of Endocrinology and Diabetology, Medical Faculty and University Hospital Düsseldorf, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf, Germany
| | - Robert Wagner
- Institute for Clinical Diabetology, German Diabetes Center, Leibniz Center for Diabetes Research at Heinrich Heine University, Düsseldorf, Germany; German Center for Diabetes Research, München-Neuherberg, Germany; Division of Endocrinology and Diabetology, Medical Faculty and University Hospital Düsseldorf, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf, Germany.
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