Cognition and Educational Achievement in the Toronto Adolescent and Youth Cohort Study: Rationale, Methods, and Early Data

BACKGROUND

Both cognition and educational achievement in youths are linked to psychosis risk. One major aim of the Toronto Adolescent and Youth (TAY) Cohort Study is to characterize how cognitive and educational achievement trajectories inform the course of psychosis spectrum symptoms (PSSs), functioning, and suicidality. Here, we describe the protocol for the cognitive and educational data and early baseline data.

METHODS

The cognitive assessment design is consistent with youth population cohort studies, including the NIH Toolbox, Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Test, Wechsler Matrix Reasoning Task, and Little Man Task. Participants complete an educational achievement questionnaire, and report cards are requested. Completion rates, descriptive data, and differences across PSS status are reported for the first participants (N = 417) ages 11 to 24 years, who were recruited between May 4, 2021, and February 2, 2023.

RESULTS

Nearly 84% of the sample completed cognitive testing, and 88.2% completed the educational questionnaire, whereas report cards were collected for only 40.3%. Modifications to workflows were implemented to improve data collection. Participants who met criteria for PSSs demonstrated lower performance than those who did not on numerous key cognitive indices (p < .05) and also had more academic/educational problems.

CONCLUSIONS

Following youths longitudinally enabled trajectory mapping and prediction based on cognitive and educational performance in relation to PSSs in treatment-seeking youths. Youths with PSSs had lower cognitive performance and worse educational outcomes than youths without PSSs. Results show the feasibility of collecting data on cognitive and educational outcomes in a cohort of youths seeking treatment related to mental illness and substance use.

Neuroimaging and Biosample Collection in the Toronto Adolescent and Youth Cohort Study: Rationale, Methods, and Early Data

BACKGROUND

The Toronto Adolescent and Youth (TAY) Cohort Study will characterize the neurobiological trajectories of psychosis spectrum symptoms, functioning, and suicidality (i.e., suicidal thoughts and behaviors) in youth seeking mental health care. Here, we present the neuroimaging and biosample component of the protocol. We also present feasibility and quality control metrics for the baseline sample collected thus far.

METHODS

The current study includes youths (ages 11-24 years) who were referred to child and youth mental health services within a large tertiary care center in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, with target recruitment of 1500 participants. Participants were offered the opportunity to provide any or all of the following: 1) 1-hour magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan (electroencephalography if ineligible for or declined MRI), 2) blood sample for genomic and proteomic data (or saliva if blood collection was declined or not feasible) and urine sample, and 3) heart rate recording to assess respiratory sinus arrhythmia.

RESULTS

Of the first 417 participants who consented to participate between May 4, 2021, and February 2, 2023, 412 agreed to participate in the imaging and biosample protocol. Of these, 334 completed imaging, 341 provided a biosample, 338 completed respiratory sinus arrhythmia, and 316 completed all 3. Following quality control, data usability was high (MRI: T1-weighted 99%, diffusion-weighted imaging 99%, arterial spin labeling 90%, resting-state functional MRI 95%, task functional MRI 90%; electroencephalography: 83%; respiratory sinus arrhythmia: 99%).

CONCLUSIONS

The high consent rates, good completion rates, and high data usability reported here demonstrate the feasibility of collecting and using brain imaging and biosamples in a large clinical cohort of youths seeking mental health care.

Aberrant Hierarchical Prediction Errors Are Associated With Transition to Psychosis: A Computational Single-Trial Analysis of the Mismatch Negativity

BACKGROUND

Mismatch negativity reductions are among the most reliable biomarkers for schizophrenia and have been associated with increased risk for conversion to psychosis in individuals who are at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P). Here, we adopted a computational approach to develop a mechanistic model of mismatch negativity reductions in CHR-P individuals and patients early in the course of schizophrenia.

METHODS

Electroencephalography was recorded in 38 CHR-P individuals (15 converters), 19 patients early in the course of schizophrenia (≤5 years), and 44 healthy control participants during three different auditory oddball mismatch negativity paradigms including 10% duration, frequency, or double deviants, respectively. We modeled sensory learning with the hierarchical Gaussian filter and extracted precision-weighted prediction error trajectories from the model to assess how the expression of hierarchical prediction errors modulated electroencephalography amplitudes over sensor space and time.

RESULTS

Both low-level sensory and high-level volatility precision-weighted prediction errors were altered in CHR-P individuals and patients early in the course of schizophrenia compared with healthy control participants. Moreover, low-level precision-weighted prediction errors were significantly different in CHR-P individuals who later converted to psychosis compared with nonconverters.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results implicate altered processing of hierarchical prediction errors as a computational mechanism in early psychosis consistent with predictive coding accounts of psychosis. This computational model seems to capture pathophysiological mechanisms that are relevant to early psychosis and the risk for future psychosis in CHR-P individuals and may serve as predictive biomarkers and mechanistic targets for the development of novel treatments.

Functional connectivity and glutamate levels of the medial prefrontal cortex in schizotypy are related to sensory amplification in a probabilistic reasoning task

The circular inference (CI) computational model assumes a corruption of sensory data by prior information and vice versa, leading at the extremes to 'see what we expect' (through prior amplification) and/or to 'expect what we see' (through sensory amplification). Although a CI mechanism has been reported in a schizophrenia population, it has not been investigated in individuals experiencing psychosis-like experiences, such as people with high schizotypy traits. Furthermore, the neurobiological basis of CI, such as the link between hierarchical amplifications, excitatory neurotransmission, and resting state functional connectivity (RSFC), remains untested. The participants included in the present study consisted of a subsample of those recruited in a study previously published by our group, Kozhuharova et al. (2021b). We included 36 participants with High (n=18) and Low (n=18) levels of schizotypy who completed a probabilistic reasoning task (the Fisher task) for which individual confidence levels were obtained and fitted to the CI model. Participants also underwent a 1H-Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy (MRS) scan to measure medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) glutamate metabolite levels, and a functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) scan to measure RSFC of the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC). People with high levels of schizotypy exhibited changes in CI parameters, altered cortical excitatory neurotransmission and RSFC that were all associated with sensory amplification. Our findings capture a multimodal signature of CI that is observable in people early in the psychosis spectrum.

Suicide prevention and ketamine: insights from computational modeling

Suicide is a pressing public health issue, with over 700,000 individuals dying each year. Ketamine has emerged as a promising treatment for suicidal thoughts and behaviors (STBs), yet the complex mechanisms underlying ketamine's anti-suicidal effect are not fully understood. Computational psychiatry provides a promising framework for exploring the dynamic interactions underlying suicidality and ketamine's therapeutic action, offering insight into potential biomarkers, treatment targets, and the underlying mechanisms of both. This paper provides an overview of current computational theories of suicidality and ketamine's mechanism of action, and discusses various computational modeling approaches that attempt to explain ketamine's anti-suicidal effect. More specifically, the therapeutic potential of ketamine is explored in the context of the mismatch negativity and the predictive coding framework, by considering neurocircuits involved in learning and decision-making, and investigating altered connectivity strengths and receptor densities targeted by ketamine. Theory-driven computational models offer a promising approach to integrate existing knowledge of suicidality and ketamine, and for the extraction of model-derived mechanistic parameters that can be used to identify patient subgroups and personalized treatment approaches. Future computational studies on ketamine's mechanism of action should optimize task design and modeling approaches to ensure parameter reliability, and external factors such as set and setting, as well as psychedelic-assisted therapy should be evaluated for their additional therapeutic value.

The effect of lysergic acid diethylamide (LSD) on whole-brain functional and effective connectivity

Psychedelics have emerged as promising candidate treatments for various psychiatric conditions, and given their clinical potential, there is a need to identify biomarkers that underlie their effects. Here, we investigate the neural mechanisms of lysergic acid diethylamide (LSD) using regression dynamic causal modelling (rDCM), a novel technique that assesses whole-brain effective connectivity (EC) during resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). We modelled data from two randomised, placebo-controlled, double-blind, cross-over trials, in which 45 participants were administered 100 μg LSD and placebo in two resting-state fMRI sessions. We compared EC against whole-brain functional connectivity (FC) using classical statistics and machine learning methods. Multivariate analyses of EC parameters revealed predominantly stronger interregional connectivity and reduced self-inhibition under LSD compared to placebo, with the notable exception of weakened interregional connectivity and increased self-inhibition in occipital brain regions as well as subcortical regions. Together, these findings suggests that LSD perturbs the Excitation/Inhibition balance of the brain. Notably, whole-brain EC did not only provide additional mechanistic insight into the effects of LSD on the Excitation/Inhibition balance of the brain, but EC also correlated with global subjective effects of LSD and discriminated experimental conditions in a machine learning-based analysis with high accuracy (91.11%), highlighting the potential of using whole-brain EC to decode or predict subjective effects of LSD in the future.

Individual differences in computational psychiatry: a review of current challenges

Bringing precision to the understanding and treatment of mental disorders requires instruments for studying clinically relevant individual differences. One promising approach is the development of computational assays: integrating computational models with cognitive tasks to infer latent patient-specific disease processes in brain computations. While recent years have seen many methodological advancements in computational modelling and many cross-sectional patient studies, much less attention has been paid to basic psychometric properties (reliability and construct validity) of the computational measures provided by the assays. In this review, we assess the extent of this issue by examining emerging empirical evidence. We find that many computational measures suffer from poor psychometric properties, which poses a risk of invalidating previous findings and undermining ongoing research efforts using computational assays to study individual (and even group) differences. We provide recommendations for how to address these problems and, crucially, embed them within a broader perspective on key developments that are needed for translating computational assays to clinical practice.

Increased Belief Instability in Psychotic Disorders Predicts Treatment Response to Metacognitive Training

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS

In a complex world, gathering information and adjusting our beliefs about the world is of paramount importance. The literature suggests that patients with psychotic disorders display a tendency to draw early conclusions based on limited evidence, referred to as the jumping-to-conclusions bias, but few studies have examined the computational mechanisms underlying this and related belief-updating biases. Here, we employ a computational approach to understand the relationship between jumping-to-conclusions, psychotic disorders, and delusions.

STUDY DESIGN

We modeled probabilistic reasoning of 261 patients with psychotic disorders and 56 healthy controls during an information sampling task-the fish task-with the Hierarchical Gaussian Filter. Subsequently, we examined the clinical utility of this computational approach by testing whether computational parameters, obtained from fitting the model to each individual's behavior, could predict treatment response to Metacognitive Training using machine learning.

STUDY RESULTS

We observed differences in probabilistic reasoning between patients with psychotic disorders and healthy controls, participants with and without jumping-to-conclusions bias, but not between patients with low and high current delusions. The computational analysis suggested that belief instability was increased in patients with psychotic disorders. Jumping-to-conclusions was associated with both increased belief instability and greater prior uncertainty. Lastly, belief instability predicted treatment response to Metacognitive Training at the individual level.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results point towards increased belief instability as a key computational mechanism underlying probabilistic reasoning in psychotic disorders. We provide a proof-of-concept that this computational approach may be useful to help identify suitable treatments for individual patients with psychotic disorders.

Computational Approaches to Treatment Response Prediction in Major Depression Using Brain Activity and Behavioral Data: A Systematic Review

Major depressive disorder is a heterogeneous diagnostic category with multiple available treatments. With the goal of optimizing treatment selection, researchers are developing computational models which attempt to predict treatment response based on various pre-treatment measures. In this paper, we review studies which use brain activity data to predict treatment response. Our aim is to highlight and clarify important methodological differences between various studies that relate to the incorporation of domain-knowledge, specifically within two approaches delineated as data-driven and theory-driven. We argue that theory-driven generative modelling, which explicitly models information processing in the brain and thus can capture disease mechanisms, is a promising emerging approach that is only beginning to be utilized in treatment response prediction. The predictors extracted via such models could improve interpretability, which is critical for clinical decision-making. We also identify several methodological limitations across the reviewed studies and provide suggestions for addressing them. Namely, we consider problems with dichotomizing treatment outcomes, the importance of investigating more than one treatment in a given study for differential treatment response predictions, the need for a patient-centered approach for defining treatment outcomes, and finally, the use of internal and external validation methods for improving model generalizability.

Human aging alters social inference about others' changing intentions

Decoding others' intentions accurately in order to adapt one's own behavior is pivotal throughout life. In this study, we asked how younger and older adults deal with uncertainty in dynamic social environments. We used an advice-taking paradigm together with Bayesian modeling to characterize effects of aging on learning about others' time-varying intentions. We observed age differences when comparing learning on two levels of social uncertainty: the fidelity of the adviser and the volatility of intentions. Older adults expected the adviser to change his/her intentions more frequently (i.e., a higher volatility of the adviser). They also showed higher confidence (i.e., precision) in their volatility beliefs and were less willing to change their beliefs about volatility over the course of the experiment. This led them to update their predictions about the fidelity of the adviser more quickly. Potentially indicative of stereotype effects, we observed that older advisers were perceived as more volatile, but also more faithful than younger advisers. This offers new insights into adult age differences in response to social uncertainty.

Reduced cortical GABA and glutamate in high schizotypy

RATIONALE

Abnormal functioning of the inhibitory gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA) and excitatory (glutamate) systems is proposed to play a role in the development of schizophrenia spectrum disorder. Although results are mixed, previous 1H-magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) studies in schizophrenia and clinical high-risk samples report these metabolites are altered in comparison to healthy controls. Currently, however, there are few studies of these metabolites in schizotypy samples, a personality dimension associated with the experience of schizophrenia and psychosis-like symptoms.

OBJECTIVES

We investigated if GABA and glutamate metabolite concentrations are altered in people with high schizotypy. We also explored the relationship between resilience to stress, GABA metabolite concentrations and schizotypy.

METHODS

We used MRS to examine GABA and glutamate levels in the medial prefrontal cortex in people with low and high schizotypy traits as assessed with the Schizotypal Personality Questionnaire. Resilience to stress was assessed using the Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale.

RESULTS

Compared to individuals with low schizotypy traits, high schizotypy individuals showed lower cortical prefrontal GABA (F (1,38) = 5.18, p = 0.03, η² = 0.09) and glutamate metabolite levels (F (1, 49) = 6.25, p = 0.02, η² = 0.02). Furthermore, participants with high GABA and high resilience levels were significantly more likely to be in the low schizotypy group than participants with low GABA and high resilience or high GABA and low resilience (95% CI 1.07-1.34, p < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings demonstrate that subclinical schizotypal traits are associated with abnormal functioning of both inhibitory and excitatory systems and suggest that these transmitters are implicated in a personality trait believed to be on a continuum with psychosis.

Aberrant computational mechanisms of social learning and decision-making in schizophrenia and borderline personality disorder

Psychiatric disorders are ubiquitously characterized by debilitating social impairments. These difficulties are thought to emerge from aberrant social inference. In order to elucidate the underlying computational mechanisms, patients diagnosed with major depressive disorder (N = 29), schizophrenia (N = 31), and borderline personality disorder (N = 31) as well as healthy controls (N = 34) performed a probabilistic reward learning task in which participants could learn from social and non-social information. Patients with schizophrenia and borderline personality disorder performed more poorly on the task than healthy controls and patients with major depressive disorder. Broken down by domain, borderline personality disorder patients performed better in the social compared to the non-social domain. In contrast, controls and major depressive disorder patients showed the opposite pattern and schizophrenia patients showed no difference between domains. In effect, borderline personality disorder patients gave up a possible overall performance advantage by concentrating their learning in the social at the expense of the non-social domain. We used computational modeling to assess learning and decision-making parameters estimated for each participant from their behavior. This enabled additional insights into the underlying learning and decision-making mechanisms. Patients with borderline personality disorder showed slower learning from social and non-social information and an exaggerated sensitivity to changes in environmental volatility, both in the non-social and the social domain, but more so in the latter. Regarding decision-making the modeling revealed that compared to controls and major depression patients, patients with borderline personality disorder and schizophrenia showed a stronger reliance on social relative to non-social information when making choices. Depressed patients did not differ significantly from controls in this respect. Overall, our results are consistent with the notion of a general interpersonal hypersensitivity in borderline personality disorder and schizophrenia based on a shared computational mechanism characterized by an over-reliance on beliefs about others in making decisions and by an exaggerated need to make sense of others during learning specifically in borderline personality disorder.

People suffering from psychiatric disorders frequently experience difficulties in social interaction, such as an impaired ability to use social signals to build representations of others and use these to guide behavior. Compuational models of learning and decision-making enable the characterization of individual patterns in learning and decision-making mechanisms that may be disorder-specific or disorder-general. We employed this approach to investigate the behavior of healthy participants and patients diagnosed with depression, schizophrenia, and borderline personality disorder while they performed a probabilistic reward learning task which included a social component. Patients with schizophrenia and borderline personality disorder performed more poorly on the task than controls and depressed patients. In addition, patients with borderline personality disorder concentrated their learning efforts more on the social compared to the non-social information. Computational modeling additionally revealed that borderline personality disorder patients showed a reduced flexibility in the weighting of newly obtained social and non-social information when learning about their predictive value. Instead, we found exaggerated learning of the volatility of social and non-social information. Additionally, we found a pattern shared between patients with borderline personality disorder and schizophrenia who both showed an over-reliance on predictions about social information during decision-making. Our modeling therefore provides a computational account of the exaggerated need to make sense of and rely on one’s interpretation of others’ behavior, which is prominent in both disorders.

Atypical processing of uncertainty in individuals at risk for psychosis

•

Humans at psychosis clinical high risk (CHR) over-estimate environmental volatility.

•

Low-level prediction error (PE) signals evoke increased frontal activity in CHR.

•

Volatility-related PEs are associated with reduced frontal activity in CHR.

•

Frontal cortical activation to low-level PEs reflects impaired clinical functioning.

•

Atypical PE learning signal representations may promote delusion formation in CHR.

Current theories of psychosis highlight the role of abnormal learning signals, i.e., prediction errors (PEs) and uncertainty, in the formation of delusional beliefs. We employed computational analyses of behaviour and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to examine whether such abnormalities are evident in clinical high risk (CHR) individuals.

Non-medicated CHR individuals (n = 13) and control participants (n = 13) performed a probabilistic learning paradigm during fMRI data acquisition. We used a hierarchical Bayesian model to infer subject-specific computations from behaviour – with a focus on PEs and uncertainty (or its inverse, precision) at different levels, including environmental ‘volatility’ – and used these computational quantities for analyses of fMRI data.

Computational modelling of CHR individuals’ behaviour indicated volatility estimates converged to significantly higher levels than in controls. Model-based fMRI demonstrated increased activity in prefrontal and insular regions of CHR individuals in response to precision-weighted low-level outcome PEs, while activations of prefrontal, orbitofrontal and anterior insula cortex by higher-level PEs (that serve to update volatility estimates) were reduced. Additionally, prefrontal cortical activity in response to outcome PEs in CHR was negatively associated with clinical measures of global functioning.

Our results suggest a multi-faceted learning abnormality in CHR individuals under conditions of environmental uncertainty, comprising higher levels of volatility estimates combined with reduced cortical activation, and abnormally high activations in prefrontal and insular areas by precision-weighted outcome PEs. This atypical representation of high- and low-level learning signals might reflect a predisposition to delusion formation.

Social Bayes: Using Bayesian Modeling to Study Autistic Trait-Related Differences in Social Cognition

BACKGROUND

The autistic spectrum is characterized by profound impairments of social interaction. The exact subpersonal processes, however, that underlie the observable lack of social reciprocity are still a matter of substantial controversy. Recently, it has been suggested that the autistic spectrum might be characterized by alterations of the brain's inference about the causes of socially relevant sensory signals.

METHODS

We used a novel reward-based learning task that required integration of nonsocial and social cues in conjunction with computational modeling. Thirty-six healthy subjects were selected based on their score on the Autism-Spectrum Quotient (AQ), and AQ scores were assessed for correlations with cue-related model parameters and task scores.

RESULTS

Individual differences in AQ scores were significantly correlated with participants' total task scores, with high AQ scorers performing more poorly in the task (r = -.39, 95% confidence interval = -0.68 to -0.13). Computational modeling of the behavioral data unmasked a learning deficit in high AQ scorers, namely, the failure to integrate social context to adapt one's belief precision-the precision afforded to prior beliefs about changing states in the world-particularly in relation to the nonsocial cue.

CONCLUSIONS

More pronounced autistic traits in a group of healthy control subjects were related to lower scores associated with misintegration of the social cue. Computational modeling further demonstrated that these trait-related performance differences are not explained by an inability to process the social stimuli and their causes, but rather by the extent to which participants consider social information to infer the nonsocial cue.

Catecholaminergic modulation of meta-learning

The remarkable expedience of human learning is thought to be underpinned by meta-learning, whereby slow accumulative learning processes are rapidly adjusted to the current learning environment. To date, the neurobiological implementation of meta-learning remains unclear. A burgeoning literature argues for an important role for the catecholamines dopamine and noradrenaline in meta-learning. Here, we tested the hypothesis that enhancing catecholamine function modulates the ability to optimise a meta-learning parameter (learning rate) as a function of environmental volatility. 102 participants completed a task which required learning in stable phases, where the probability of reinforcement was constant, and volatile phases, where probabilities changed every 10-30 trials. The catecholamine transporter blocker methylphenidate enhanced participants' ability to adapt learning rate: Under methylphenidate, compared with placebo, participants exhibited higher learning rates in volatile relative to stable phases. Furthermore, this effect was significant only with respect to direct learning based on the participants' own experience, there was no significant effect on inferred-value learning where stimulus values had to be inferred. These data demonstrate a causal link between catecholaminergic modulation and the adjustment of the meta-learning parameter learning rate.

Hierarchical prediction errors in midbrain and septum during social learning

Social learning is fundamental to human interactions, yet its computational and physiological mechanisms are not well understood. One prominent open question concerns the role of neuromodulatory transmitters. We combined fMRI, computational modelling and genetics to address this question in two separate samples (N = 35, N = 47). Participants played a game requiring inference on an adviser’s intentions whose motivation to help or mislead changed over time. Our analyses suggest that hierarchically structured belief updates about current advice validity and the adviser’s trustworthiness, respectively, depend on different neuromodulatory systems. Low-level prediction errors (PEs) about advice accuracy not only activated regions known to support ‘theory of mind’, but also the dopaminergic midbrain. Furthermore, PE responses in ventral striatum were influenced by the Met/Val polymorphism of the Catechol-O-Methyltransferase (COMT) gene. By contrast, high-level PEs (‘expected uncertainty’) about the adviser’s fidelity activated the cholinergic septum. These findings, replicated in both samples, have important implications: They suggest that social learning rests on hierarchically related PEs encoded by midbrain and septum activity, respectively, in the same manner as other forms of learning under volatility. Furthermore, these hierarchical PEs may be broadcast by dopaminergic and cholinergic projections to induce plasticity specifically in cortical areas known to represent beliefs about others.

Analysis and correction of field fluctuations in fMRI data using field monitoring

This work investigates the role of magnetic field fluctuations as a confound in fMRI. In standard fMRI experiments with single-shot EPI acquisition at 3 Tesla the uniform and gradient components of the magnetic field were recorded with NMR field sensors. By principal component analysis it is found that differences of field evolution between the EPI readouts are explainable by few components relating to slow and within-shot field dynamics of hardware and physiological origin. The impact of fluctuating field components is studied by selective data correction and assessment of its influence on image fluctuation and SFNR. Physiological field fluctuations, attributed to breathing, were found to be small relative to those of hardware origin. The dominant confounds were hardware-related and attributable to magnet drift and thermal changes. In raw image time series, field fluctuation caused significant SFNR loss, reflected by a 67% gain upon correction. Large part of this correction can be accomplished by traditional image realignment, which addresses slow and spatially uniform field changes. With realignment, explicit field correction increased the SFNR on the order of 6%. In conclusion, field fluctuations are a relevant confound in fMRI and can be addressed effectively by retrospective data correction. Based on the physics involved it is anticipated that the advantage of full field correction increases with field strength, with non-Cartesian readouts, and upon phase-sensitive BOLD analysis.

Inferring on the intentions of others by hierarchical Bayesian learning

Inferring on others' (potentially time-varying) intentions is a fundamental problem during many social transactions. To investigate the underlying mechanisms, we applied computational modeling to behavioral data from an economic game in which 16 pairs of volunteers (randomly assigned to “player” or “adviser” roles) interacted. The player performed a probabilistic reinforcement learning task, receiving information about a binary lottery from a visual pie chart. The adviser, who received more predictive information, issued an additional recommendation. Critically, the game was structured such that the adviser's incentives to provide helpful or misleading information varied in time. Using a meta-Bayesian modeling framework, we found that the players' behavior was best explained by the deployment of hierarchical learning: they inferred upon the volatility of the advisers' intentions in order to optimize their predictions about the validity of their advice. Beyond learning, volatility estimates also affected the trial-by-trial variability of decisions: participants were more likely to rely on their estimates of advice accuracy for making choices when they believed that the adviser's intentions were presently stable. Finally, our model of the players' inference predicted the players' interpersonal reactivity index (IRI) scores, explicit ratings of the advisers' helpfulness and the advisers' self-reports on their chosen strategy. Overall, our results suggest that humans (i) employ hierarchical generative models to infer on the changing intentions of others, (ii) use volatility estimates to inform decision-making in social interactions, and (iii) integrate estimates of advice accuracy with non-social sources of information. The Bayesian framework presented here can quantify individual differences in these mechanisms from simple behavioral readouts and may prove useful in future clinical studies of maladaptive social cognition.

The ability to decode another person's intentions is a critical component of social interactions. This is particularly important when we have to make decisions based on someone else's advice. Our research proposes that this complex cognitive skill (social learning) can be translated into a mathematical model, which prescribes a mechanism for mentally simulating another person's intentions. This study demonstrates that this process can be parsimoniously described as the deployment of hierarchical learning. In other words, participants learn about two quantities: the intentions of the person they interact with and the veracity of the recommendations they offer. As participants become more and more confident about their representation of the other's intentions, they make decisions more in accordance with the advice they receive. Importantly, our modeling framework captures individual differences in the social learning process: The estimated “learning fingerprint” can predict other aspects of participants' behavior, such as their perspective-taking abilities and their explicit ratings of the adviser's level of trustworthiness. The present modeling approach can be further applied in the context of psychiatry to identify maladaptive learning processes in disorders where social learning processes are particularly impaired, such as schizophrenia.

Modeling ketamine effects on synaptic plasticity during the mismatch negativity

This paper presents a model-based investigation of mechanisms underlying the reduction of mismatch negativity (MMN) amplitudes under the NMDA-receptor antagonist ketamine. We applied dynamic causal modeling and Bayesian model selection to data from a recent ketamine study of the roving MMN paradigm, using a cross-over, double-blind, placebo-controlled design. Our modeling was guided by a predictive coding framework that unifies contemporary "adaptation" and "model adjustment" MMN theories. Comparing a series of dynamic causal models that allowed for different expressions of neuronal adaptation and synaptic plasticity, we obtained 3 major results: 1) We replicated previous results that both adaptation and short-term plasticity are necessary to explain MMN generation per se; 2) we found significant ketamine effects on synaptic plasticity, but not adaptation, and a selective ketamine effect on the forward connection from left primary auditory cortex to superior temporal gyrus; 3) this model-based estimate of ketamine effects on synaptic plasticity correlated significantly with ratings of ketamine-induced impairments in cognition and control. Our modeling approach thus suggests a concrete mechanism for ketamine effects on MMN that correlates with drug-induced psychopathology. More generally, this demonstrates the potential of modeling for inferring on synaptic physiology, and its pharmacological modulation, from electroencephalography data.