Coccidioidomycosis in llamas and alpacas diagnosed at the University of California, Davis (1990-2016)

Given the predisposition of South American camelids to coccidioidomycosis, we sought to describe the disease presentation in alpacas and llamas and identify potential risk factors for these species. The records of 224 llamas and alpacas that were tested for Coccidioides infection using immunodiffusion serology at the Coccidioidomycosis Serology Laboratory of the University of California, Davis, between 1990 and 2016 were examined; of those, 46 alpacas and 42 llamas had positive test results. The remaining 99 alpacas and 37 llamas were used as control groups. We found that male llamas were at increased risk for Coccidioides infection when compared with female llamas and when compared with male alpacas. South American camelids living within California were at higher risk for infection than camelids living in other states. Alpacas were more likely than llamas to have subclinical infections. We documented five cases of abortion or neonatal mortality attributable to coccidioidomycosis in alpacas. Our study demonstrates that South American camelids are susceptible to Coccidioides infection in areas where the disease is endemic, lending support to the importance of vigilance for this disease in alpacas and llamas and suggesting a possible role for these animals as sentinel species.

LAY SUMMARY

We examined cases of Valley Fever and described the disease and risk factors for llamas and alpacas. Male llamas were at increased risk for infection as were animals living within California. Five alpacas had miscarriages or neonatal deaths as a result of Valley Fever infections.

Evaluation of the impact of live pig trade network, vaccination coverage and socio-economic factors in the classical swine fever eradication program in Peru

Classical swine fever (CSF) is a viral infectious disease of swine with significant economic impact in the affected countries due to the limitation of trade, culling of infected animals and production losses. In Latin America, CSF is endemic in several countries including Ecuador, Bolivia, Brazil and Peru. Since 2010, the National Veterinary Services of Peru have been working to better control and eradicate the disease with an intensive vaccination program. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of the vaccination program and determine which factors are still contributing to the persistence of the disease in certain regions of Peru. We integrated the data from the vaccination campaign, the live pig movement network and other socioeconomic indicators into a multilevel logistic regression model to evaluate their association with CSF occurrence at district level. The results revealed that high vaccination coverage significantly reduces the risk of CSF occurrence (OR = 0.07), supporting the effectiveness of the vaccination program. Districts belonging to large and medium pig trade network communities (as identified with walktrap algorithm) had higher probability to CSF occurrence (OR = 2.83 and OR = 5.83, respectively). The human development index (HDI) and the presence of a slaughterhouse in the district was also significantly associated with an increased likelihood of CSF occurrence (OR = 1.52 and OR = 3.25, respectively). Districts receiving a high proportion of the movements from districts that were infected in the previous year were also at higher risk of CSF occurrence (OR = 3.30). These results should be useful to guide the prioritization of vaccination strategies and may help to design other intervention strategies (e.g., target education, movement restrictions, etc.) in high-risk areas to more rapidly advance in the eradication of CSF in Peru.

Epidemiology and spatio-temporal analysis of West Nile virus in horses in Spain between 2010 and 2016

During the last decade, West Nile virus (WNV) outbreaks have increased sharply in both horses and human in Europe. The aims of this study were to evaluate characteristics and spatio-temporal distribution of WNV outbreaks in horses in Spain between 2010 and 2016 in order to identify the environmental variables most associated with WNV occurrence and to generate high-resolution WNV suitability maps to inform risk-based surveillance strategies in this country. Between August 2010 and November 2016, a total of 403 WNV suspected cases were investigated, of which, 177 (43.9%) were laboratory confirmed. Mean values of morbidity, mortality and case fatality rates were 7.5%, 1.6% and 21.2%, respectively. The most common clinical symptoms were as follows: tiredness/apathy, recumbency, muscular tremor, ataxia, incoordination and hyperaesthesia. The outbreaks confirmed during the last 7 years, with detection of WNV RNA lineage 1 in 2010, 2012, 2013, 2015 and 2016, suggest an endemic circulation of the virus in Spain. The spatio-temporal distribution of WNV outbreaks in Spain was not homogeneous, as most of them (92.7%) were concentrated in western part of Andalusia (southern Spain) and significant clusters were detected in this region in two non-consecutive years. These findings were supported by the results of the space-time scan statistics permutation model. A presence-only MaxEnt ecological niche model was used to generate a suitability map for WNV occurrence in Andalusia. The most important predictors selected by the Ecological Niche Modeling were as follows: mean annual temperature (49.5% contribution), presence of Culex pipiens (19.5% contribution), mean annual precipitation (16.1% contribution) and distance to Ramsar wetlands (14.9% contribution). Our results constitute an important step for understanding WNV emergence and spread in Spain and will provide valuable information for the development of more cost-effective surveillance and control programmes and improve the protection of horse and human populations in WNV-endemic areas.

Understanding African Swine Fever infection dynamics in Sardinia using a spatially explicit transmission model in domestic pig farms

African swine fever virus (ASFV) has been endemic in Sardinia since 1978, resulting in severe losses for local pig producers and creating important problems for the island's veterinary authorities. This study used a spatially explicit stochastic transmission model followed by two regression models to investigate the dynamics of ASFV spread amongst domestic pig farms, to identify geographic areas at highest risk and determine the role of different susceptible pig populations (registered domestic pigs, non-registered domestic pigs [brado] and wild boar) in ASF occurrence. We simulated transmission within and between farms using an adapted version of the previously described model known as Be-FAST. Results from the model revealed a generally low diffusion of ASF in Sardinia, with only 24% of the simulations resulting in disease spread, and for each simulated outbreak on average only four farms and 66 pigs were affected. Overall, local spread (indirect transmission between farms within a 2 km radius through fomites) was the most common route of transmission, being responsible for 98.6% of secondary cases. The risk of ASF occurrence for each domestic pig farm was estimated from the spread model results and integrated in two regression models together with available data for brado and wild boar populations. There was a significant association between the density of all three populations (domestic pigs, brado, and wild boar) and ASF occurrence in Sardinia. The most significant risk factors were the high densities of brado (OR = 2.2) and wild boar (OR = 2.1). The results of both analyses demonstrated that ASF epidemiology and infection dynamics in Sardinia create a complex and multifactorial disease situation, where all susceptible populations play an important role. To stop ASF transmission in Sardinia, three main factors (improving biosecurity on domestic pig farms, eliminating brado practices and better management of wild boars) need to be addressed.

Spatial Epidemiology and Risk Factor Analysis of White Spot Disease in the Shrimp Farming Industry of Sinaloa, Mexico, from 2005 to 2011

White spot disease (WSD), caused by the white spot syndrome virus, is currently one of the primary causes of mortality and economic losses in the shrimp farming industry worldwide. In Mexico, shrimp production is one of the most important primary activities generating an annual income of USD 711 million. However, WSD introduction in 1999 had a devastating impact for the Mexican shrimp industry. The aim of this study was to characterize the WSD spatio-temporal patterns and to identify the primary risk factors contributing to WSD occurrence from 2005 to 2011 in Sinaloa, Mexico. We used data collected by the 'Comité Estatal de Sanidad Acuícola de Sinaloa' from 2005 to 2011 regarding WSD outbreaks as well as environmental, production and husbandry factors at farm level. The spatio-temporal patterns of WSD were described using space-time scan statistics. The effect of 52 variables on the time to WSD outbreak occurrence was assessed using a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model. Results reveal that WSD risk and survival time were not homogeneously distributed as suggested by the significant clusters obtained using the space-time permutation model and the space-time exponential model, respectively. The Cox model revealed that the first production cycle [hazard ratio (HR) = 11.31], changes from 1 to 1.4°C of temperature oscillation caused by 'El Niño'/'La Niña' events (HR = 1.44) and high average daily growths (HR = 1.26) were significantly associated with lower survival (i.e. shorter time to WSD outbreak) on farm. Conversely, shrimp weight at the moment of the outbreak (HR = 0.159), changes from -0.9 to -0.5°C of temperature oscillation caused by 'El Niño'/'La Niña' events (HR = 0.540), high superficial water temperature during the pound stocking (HR = 0.823) and high (>100) number of days of culture (HR = 0.830) were factors associated with higher survival. Results are expected to inform the design of risk-based, intervention strategies to minimize the impact of WSD in Mexico.

Characterization of the live salmonid movement network in Ireland: Implications for disease prevention and control

Live fish movement is considered as having an important role in the transmission of infectious diseases. For that reason, interventions for cost-effective disease prevention and control rely on a sound understanding of the patterns of live fish movements in a region or country. Here, we characterize the network of live fish movements in the Irish salmonid farming industry during 2013, using social network analysis and spatial epidemiology methods, and identify interventions to limit the risk of disease introduction and spread. In the network there were 62 sites sending and/or receiving fish, with a total of 130 shipments (84 arcs) comprising approx. 17.2 million fish during the year. Atlantic salmon shipments covered longer distances than trout shipments, with some traversing the entire country. The average shipment of Atlantic salmon was 146,186 (SD 194,344) fish, compared to 77,928 (127,009) for trout, however, variability was high. There were 3 periods where shipments peaked (February-April, June-September, and November), which were related to specific stages of fish. The network was disconnected and had two major weak components, the first one with 39 nodes (mostly Atlantic salmon sites), and the second one with 10 nodes (exclusively trout sites). Correlation between in and out-degree at each site and assortativity coefficient were slightly low and non-significant: -0.08 (95% CI: -0.22, 0.06) and -0.13 (95% CI: -0.36, 0.08), respectively, indicating random mixing with regard to node degree. Although competing models also produced a good fit to degree distribution, it is likely that the network possesses both small-world and scale-free topology. This would facilitate the spread and persistence of infection in the salmon production system, but would also facilitate the design of risk-based surveillance strategies by targeting hubs, bridges or cut-points. Using Infomap community detection algorithms, 2 major communities were identified within the giant weak component, which were linked by only 4 nodes. Communities found had no correspondence with geographical zones within the country, which could potentially hinder the implementation of zoning strategies for disease control and eradication. Three significant spatial clusters of node centrality measures were detected, two in county Donegal (betweenness and outcloseness) and one in county Galway (incloseness), highlighting the importance of these locations as hot spots of highly central sites with a higher potential for both introduction and spread of infection. These results will assist in the design and implementation of measures to reduce the sanitary risks emerging from live fish trade within Ireland.

Identification of Suitable Areas for African Horse Sickness Virus Infections in Spanish Equine Populations

African horse sickness (AHS) is one of the most important vector-borne viral infectious diseases of equines, transmitted mainly by Culicoides spp. The re-emergence of Culicoides-borne diseases in Europe, such as the recent bluetongue (BT) or Schmallenberg outbreaks, has raised concern about the potential re-introduction and further spread of AHS virus (AHSV) in Europe. Spain has one of the largest European equine populations. In addition, its geographical, environmental and entomological conditions favour AHSV infections, as shown by the historical outbreaks in the 1990s. The establishment of risk-based surveillance strategies would allow the early detection and rapid control of any potential AHSV outbreak. This study aimed to identify the areas and time periods that are suitable or at high risk for AHS occurrence in Spain using a GIS-based multicriteria decision framework. Specifically risk maps for AHS occurrence were produced using a weighted linear combination of the main risk factors of disease, namely extrinsic incubation period, equine density and distribution of competent Culicoides populations. Model results revealed that the south-western and north-central areas of Spain and the Balearic Islands are the areas at the highest risk for AHSV infections, particularly in late summer months. Conversely, Galicia, Castile and Leon and La Rioja can be considered as low-risk regions. This result was validated with historical AHS and BT outbreaks in Spain, and with the Culicoides vector distribution area. The model results, together with current Spanish equine production features, should provide the foundations to design risk-based and more cost-effective surveillance strategies for the early detection and rapid control potential of AHS outbreaks in Spain.

Thirty-Five-Year Presence of African Swine Fever in Sardinia: History, Evolution and Risk Factors for Disease Maintenance

Despite the implementation of control efforts and funds to fight against the disease, African swine fever (ASF) has been present in Sardinia since 1978. It has caused serious problems for both the industrial pig sector and the regional authorities in Sardinia, as well as the economy of Italy and the European Union, which annually supports the costly eradication programme. During this time, ASF has persisted, especially in the central-east part of Sardinia where almost 75% of the total outbreaks are concentrated. The Sardinian pig sector is clearly divided into two categories based on the specialization and industrialization of production: industrial farms, which represents only 1.8% of the farms in the island and non-professional holdings, which are comprised of small producers (90% of pig holdings have <15 pigs) and apply little to no biosecurity measures. Additionally, illegally raised pigs are still bred in free-ranging systems in certain isolated parts of the island, despite strict regulations. The illegal raising of pigs, along with other high-risk management practices (e.g., use of communal areas) are likely the primary reasons for endemic persistence of the virus in this area. The compensation provided to the farmers, and other aspects of the eradication programme have also negatively influenced eradication efforts, indicating that socio-cultural and economic factors play an important role in the epidemiology of ASF on the island. The aim of this study was to comprehensively review the evolution of the 35-year presence of ASF in Sardinia, including control measures, and the environmental and socio-economic factors that may have contributed to disease endemicity on the island. The present review highlights the need for a coordinated programme that considers these socio-economic and environmental factors and includes an assessment of new cost-effective control strategies and diagnostic tools for effectively controlling ASF in Sardinia.

Assessing the Risk of African Swine Fever Introduction into the European Union by Wild Boar

The presence of African swine fever (ASF) in the Caucasus region and Russian Federation has increased concerns that wild boars may introduce the ASF virus into the European Union (EU). This study describes a semi-quantitative approach for evaluating the risk of ASF introduction into the EU by wild boar movements based on the following risk estimators: the susceptible population of (1) wild boars and (2) domestic pigs in the country of origin; the outbreak density in (3) wild boars and (4) domestic pigs in the countries of origin, the (5) suitable habitat for wild boars along the EU border; and the distance between the EU border and the nearest ASF outbreak in (6) wild boars or (7) domestic pigs. Sensitivity analysis was performed to identify the most influential risk estimators. The highest risk was found to be concentrated in Finland, Romania, Latvia and Poland, and wild boar habitat and outbreak density were the two most important risk estimators. Animal health authorities in at-risk countries should be aware of these risk estimators and should communicate closely with wild boar hunters and pig farmers to rapidly detect and control ASF.

A new approach for rapidly assessing the risk of Aujeszky's disease reintroduction into a disease-free Spanish territory by analysing the movement of live pigs and potential contacts with wild boar

Aujeszky's disease (AD) causes significant economic losses in the Spanish pig sector due to import trade restrictions imposed by disease-free countries. Most regions of Spain have achieved 'low AD prevalence' status as a result of an intensive national AD eradication programme involving vaccination and other measures. However, to achieve AD-free status that would eliminate trade restrictions, vaccination must be stopped. For this final stage of eradication, up to date and reliable estimates of the risk of AD reintroduction are essential. Here, we propose an approach based on spatio-temporal scan statistics that the assesses risk of AD reintroduction in a disease-free territory by analysing the two most frequent risk pathways: movement of live domestic pigs and contact with wildlife reservoirs. The approach is illustrated using the case of Navarre, one of the first Spanish regions which plan to stop vaccination. Moreover, direct contacts among pig farms in Navarre were used to evaluate the potential spread of AD in the event of reintroduction. Areas at highest risk of AD reintroduction were in the southern part of the region during the second half of the year through pig movements and in the western and east-central parts of Navarre through contact with wild boars. Northern Navarre, despite having the highest density of pig farms, seems to be at low risk of AD reintroduction. Analysing the network of pig movements within Navarre revealed distinct northern and southern compartments that may be used in preventive compartmentalization strategies to reduce potential risk of AD re-infection in the scenario without vaccination. The approach described here may be extended to other regions and may be useful for guiding risk-based measures that reduce the risk of AD re-infection in a more cost-effective manner. Such analysis in Spain may allow authorities to stop vaccination in the safest possible way.

African swine fever: an epidemiological update

African swine fever (ASF) is one of the most important swine diseases, mainly because of its significant sanitary and socioeconomic consequences. This review gives an update on the epidemiology of the disease and reviews key issues and strategies to improve control of the disease and promote its eradication. Several characteristics of ASF virus (ASFV) make its control and eradication difficult, including the absence of available vaccines, marked virus resistance in infected material and contaminated animal products, and a complex epidemiology and transmission involving tick reservoir virus interactions. The incidence of ASF has not only increased on the African continent over the last 15 years, so that it now affects West African countries, Mauritius and Madagascar, but it has also reached new areas, such as the Caucasus region in 2007. In fact, the rapid spread of the disease on the European continent and the uncontrolled situation in the Russian Federation places all countries at great risk as a result of intense global trade. The proximity of some affected areas to the European Union (EU) borders (<150 km) has increased concerns about the potential economic consequences of an ASF incursion into the EU pig sector. Establishing effective surveillance, control and eradication programmes that implicate all actors (veterinarians, farmers, and policy makers) is essential for controlling ASF. African swine fever -free countries should be aware of the potential risk of ASF incursion and implement risk reduction measures such as trade controls and other sanitary measures. This review will discuss lessons learnt so far about ASF control, current challenges to its control and future studies needed to support global efforts at prevention and control.

A simulation model for the potential spread of foot-and-mouth disease in the Castile and Leon region of Spain

A spatial stochastic model was used to simulate the spread of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in the Castile-and-Leon (CyL) region of Spain. The model was fitted using information available on premises demographics and on assumptions for animal movements, indirect contacts, and airborne exposure. Control measures dictated by Spanish and European Union regulations constituted a reference strategy to which six alternative control strategies were compared. For the reference strategy, the median (95% PI) numbers of infected, depopulated, and quarantined premises were 141 (2-1099), 164 (4-1302), and 334 (31-2059), respectively. Depopulation and vaccination of premises within a radius of <1km and <3km, respectively, around infected premises significantly (p-value<0.001) decreased the number of infected premises, compared to the reference scenario. Results presented here will contribute to the revision, design, and implementation of contingency plans and programs for prevention and control of FMD epidemics in Spain.

Social network analysis. Review of general concepts and use in preventive veterinary medicine

Social network analysis (SNA) and graph theory have been used widely in sociology, psychology, anthropology, biology and medicine. Social network analysis and graph theory provide a conceptual framework to study contact patterns and to identify units of analysis that are frequently or intensely connected within the network. Social network analysis has been used in human epidemiology as a tool to explore the potential transmission of infectious agents such as HIV, tuberculosis, hepatitis B and syphilis. In preventive veterinary medicine, SNA is an approach that offers benefits for exploring the nature and extent of the contacts between animals or farms, which ultimately leads to a better understanding of the potential risk for disease spread in a susceptible population. Social network analysis, however, has been applied only recently in preventive veterinary medicine, therefore the characteristics of the technique and the potential benefits of its use remain unknown for an important section of the international veterinary medicine community. The objectives of this paper were to review the concepts and theoretical aspects underlying the use of SNA and graph theory, with particular emphasis on their application to the study of infectious diseases of animals. The paper includes a review of recent applications of SNA in preventive veterinary medicine and a discussion of the potential uses and limitations of this methodology for the study of animal diseases.

Risk assessment and cost-effectiveness analysis of Aujeszky's disease virus introduction through breeding and fattening pig movements into Spain

Movement of infected animals is considered the most likely route of Aujeszky's disease virus (ADV) introduction into free areas and the main obstacle to eradicating Aujeszky's disease (AD) in those areas, which have achieved a low prevalence (>0 and < or =10%) status. For this reason, the Spanish AD control and eradication program has established measures to enhance security in animal movements in an attempt to protect areas with free or low prevalence status; however, no studies have quantified the effectiveness of the current or alternative ADV introduction prevention measures. We performed a probabilistic risk assessment and cost-effectiveness analysis, using Monte Carlo simulation, to evaluate the probability of introducing ADV-infected animals into free or low prevalence areas under the Spanish AD control and eradication program. We found the mean probability of introducing ADV-infected animals, when breeding pigs were quarantined but not tested prior to shipment, is likely (up to 21%), representing 13.6 times higher risk than when breeding pigs were tested prior to shipment. The strategy of testing pigs on fattening farms 15 days prior to shipment and using a sample size sufficient to detect a prevalence of 5% with a 95% of confidence, could reduce the probability of introducing ADV-infected animals by 91% with no additional cost. Similarly, testing pigs on breeding and fattening farms using a sample size sufficient to detect a prevalence of 1% with a 95% of confidence, could reduce the probability of introducing ADV-infected animals by 99%, but with an increased cost of 81%. Results reported in this study identify factors that contribute to risk of ADV introduction and should aid the control and eradication of AD in Spain.

Quantitative risk assessment of foot-and-mouth disease introduction into Spain via importation of live animals

Spain has been a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD)-free country since 1986. However, the FMD epidemics that recently affected several European Union (EU) member countries demonstrated that the continent is still at high risk for FMD virus (FMDV) introduction, and that the potential consequences of those epidemics are socially and financially devastating. This paper presents a quantitative assessment of the risk of FMDV introduction into Spain. Results suggest that provinces in north-eastern Spain are at higher risk for FMDV introduction, that an FMD epidemic in Spain is more likely to occur via the import of pigs than through the import of cattle, sheep, or goats, and that a sixfold increase in the proportion of premises that quarantine pigs prior to their introduction into the operation will reduce the probability of FMDV introduction via import of live pigs into Spain by 50%. Allocation of resources towards surveillance activities in regions and types of operations at high risk for FMDV introduction and into the development of policies to promote quarantine and other biosecurity activities in susceptible operations will decrease the probability of FMD introduction into the country and will strengthen the chances of success of the Spanish FMD prevention program.