Machine learning models in predicting health care costs in patients with a recent acute coronary syndrome: A prospective pilot study

Background

Health care budgets are limited, requiring the optimal use of resources. Machine learning (ML) methods may have an enormous potential for effective use of health care resources.

Objective

We assessed the applicability of selected ML tools to evaluate the contribution of known risk markers for prognosis of coronary artery disease to predict health care costs for all reasons in patients with a recent acute coronary syndrome (n = 65, aged 65 ± 9 years) for 1-year follow-up.

Methods

Risk markers were assessed at baseline, and health care costs were collected from electronic health registries. The Cross-decomposition algorithms were used to rank the considered risk markers based on their impacts on variances. Then regression analysis was performed to predict costs by entering the first top-ranking risk marker and adding the next-best markers, one by one, to build up altogether 13 predictive models.

Results

The average annual health care costs were €2601 ± €5378 per patient. The Depression Scale showed the highest predictive value (r = 0.395), accounting for 16% of the costs (P = .001). When the next 2 ranked markers (LDL cholesterol, r = 0.230; and left ventricular ejection fraction, r = -0.227, respectively) were added to the model, the predictive value was 24% for the costs (P = .001).

Conclusion

Higher depression score is the primary variable forecasting health care costs in 1-year follow-up among acute coronary syndrome patients. The ML tools may help decision-making when planning optimal utilization of treatment strategies.

Interactive multiobjective optimization for finding the most preferred exercise therapy modality in knee osteoarthritis

BACKGROUND

There are no explicit guidelines or tools available to support clinicians in selecting exercise therapy modalities according to the characteristics of individual patients despite the apparent need.

OBJECTIVE

This study develops a methodology based on a novel multiobjective optimization model and examines its feasibility as a decision support tool to support healthcare professionals in comparing different modalities and identifying the most preferred one based on a patient's needs.

METHODS

Thirty-one exercise therapy modalities were considered from 21 randomized controlled trials. A novel interactive multiobjective optimization model was designed to characterize the efficacy of an exercise therapy modality based on five objectives: minimizing cost, maximizing pain reduction, maximizing disability improvement, minimizing the number of supervised sessions, and minimizing the length of the treatment period. An interactive model incorporates clinicians' preferences in finding the most preferred exercise therapy modality for each need. Multiobjective optimization methods are mathematical algorithms designed to identify the optimal balance between multiple conflicting objectives among available solutions/alternatives. They explicitly evaluate the conflicting objectives and support decision-makers in identifying the best balance. An experienced research-oriented physiotherapist was involved as a decision-maker in the interactive solution process testing the proposed decision support tool.

RESULTS

The proposed methodology design and interactive process of the tool, including preference information, graphs, and exercise suggestions following the preferences, can help clinicians to find the most preferred exercise therapy modality based on a patient's needs and health status; paving the way to individualize recommendations.

CONCLUSIONS

We examined the feasibility of our decision support tool using an interactive multiobjective optimization method designed to help clinicians balance between conflicting objectives to find the most preferred exercise therapy modality for patients with knee osteoarthritis. The proposed methodology is generic enough to be applied in any field of medical and healthcare settings, where several alternative treatment options exist.KEY MESSAGESWe demonstrate the potential of applying Interactive multiobjective optimization methods in a decision support tool to help clinicians compare different exercise therapy modalities and identify the most preferred one based on a patient's needs.The usability of the proposed decision support tool is tested and demonstrated in prescribing exercise therapy modalities to treat knee osteoarthritis patients.