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Rentroia-Pacheco B, Tokez S, Bramer EM, Venables ZC, van de Werken HJ, Bellomo D, van Klaveren D, Mooyaart AL, Hollestein LM, Wakkee M. Personalised decision making to predict absolute metastatic risk in cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma: development and validation of a clinico-pathological model. EClinicalMedicine 2023; 63:102150. [PMID: 37662519 PMCID: PMC10468358 DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2023.102150] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/09/2023] [Revised: 07/14/2023] [Accepted: 07/25/2023] [Indexed: 09/05/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC) is a common skin cancer, affecting more than 2 million people worldwide yearly and metastasising in 2-5% of patients. However, current clinical staging systems do not provide estimates of absolute metastatic risk, hence missing the opportunity for more personalised treatment advice. We aimed to develop a clinico-pathological model that predicts the probability of metastasis in patients with cSCC. Methods Nationwide cohorts from (1) all patients with a first primary cSCC in The Netherlands in 2007-2008 and (2) all patients with a cSCC in 2013-2015 in England were used to derive nested case-control cohorts. Pathology records of primary cSCCs that originated a loco-regional or distant metastasis were identified, and these cSCCs were matched to primary cSCCs of controls without metastasis (1:1 ratio). The model was developed on the Dutch cohort (n = 390) using a weighted Cox regression model with backward selection and validated on the English cohort (n = 696). Model performance was assessed using weighted versions of the C-index, calibration metrics, and decision curve analysis; and compared to the Brigham and Women's Hospital (BWH) and the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging systems. Members of the multidisciplinary Skin Cancer Outcomes (SCOUT) consortium were surveyed to interpret metastatic risk cutoffs in a clinical context. Findings Eight out of eleven clinico-pathological variables were selected. The model showed good discriminative ability, with an optimism-corrected C-index of 0.80 (95% Confidence interval (CI) 0.75-0.85) in the development cohort and a C-index of 0.84 (95% CI 0.81-0.87) in the validation cohort. Model predictions were well-calibrated: the calibration slope was 0.96 (95% CI 0.76-1.16) in the validation cohort. Decision curve analysis showed improved net benefit compared to current staging systems, particularly for thresholds relevant for decisions on follow-up and adjuvant treatment. The model is available as an online web-based calculator (https://emc-dermatology.shinyapps.io/cscc-abs-met-risk/). Interpretation This validated model assigns personalised metastatic risk predictions to patients with cSCC, using routinely reported histological and patient-specific risk factors. The model can empower clinicians and healthcare systems in identifying patients with high-risk cSCC and offering personalised care/treatment and follow-up. Use of the model for clinical decision-making in different patient populations must be further investigated. Funding PPP Allowance made available by Health-Holland, Top Sector Life Sciences & Health, to stimulate public-private partnerships.
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Affiliation(s)
- Barbara Rentroia-Pacheco
- Department of Dermatology, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Selin Tokez
- Department of Dermatology, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Edo M. Bramer
- Department of Dermatology, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Zoe C. Venables
- Department of Dermatology, Norfolk and Norwich University Hospital, Norwich, United Kingdom
- National Disease Registration Service, NHS England, United Kingdom
- Norwich Medical School, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom
| | - Harmen J.G. van de Werken
- Department of Immunology, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | | | - David van Klaveren
- Department of Public Health, Center for Medical Decision Making, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Antien L. Mooyaart
- Department of Pathology, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Loes M. Hollestein
- Department of Dermatology, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
- Department of Research, Netherlands Comprehensive Cancer Organization (IKNL), Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - Marlies Wakkee
- Department of Dermatology, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
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Mulder EEAP, Johansson I, Grünhagen DJ, Tempel D, Rentroia-Pacheco B, Dwarkasing JT, Verver D, Mooyaart AL, van der Veldt AAM, Wakkee M, Nijsten TEC, Verhoef C, Mattsson J, Ny L, Hollestein LM, Olofsson Bagge R. Using a Clinicopathologic and Gene Expression (CP-GEP) Model to Identify Stage I-II Melanoma Patients at Risk of Disease Relapse. Cancers (Basel) 2022; 14:cancers14122854. [PMID: 35740520 PMCID: PMC9220976 DOI: 10.3390/cancers14122854] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/06/2022] [Revised: 06/01/2022] [Accepted: 06/05/2022] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Background: The current standard of care for patients without sentinel node (SN) metastasis (i.e., stage I−II melanoma) is watchful waiting, while >40% of patients with stage IB−IIC will eventually present with disease recurrence or die as a result of melanoma. With the prospect of adjuvant therapeutic options for patients with a negative SN, we assessed the performance of a clinicopathologic and gene expression (CP-GEP) model, a model originally developed to predict SN metastasis, to identify patients with stage I−II melanoma at risk of disease relapse. Methods: This study included patients with cutaneous melanoma ≥18 years of age with a negative SN between October 2006 and December 2017 at the Sahlgrenska University Hospital (Sweden) and Erasmus MC Cancer Institute (The Netherlands). According to the CP-GEP model, which can be applied to the primary melanoma tissue, the patients were stratified into high or low risk of recurrence. The primary aim was to assess the 5-year recurrence-free survival (RFS) of low- and high-risk CP-GEP. A secondary aim was to compare the CP-GEP model with the EORTC nomogram, a model based on clinicopathological variables only. Results: In total, 535 patients (stage I−II) were included. CP-GEP stratification among these patients resulted in a 5-year RFS of 92.9% (95% confidence interval (CI): 86.4−96.4) in CP-GEP low-risk patients (n = 122) versus 80.7% (95%CI: 76.3−84.3) in CP-GEP high-risk patients (n = 413; hazard ratio 2.93 (95%CI: 1.41−6.09), p < 0.004). According to the EORTC nomogram, 25% of the patients were classified as having a ‘low risk’ of recurrence (96.8% 5-year RFS (95%CI 91.6−98.8), n = 130), 49% as ‘intermediate risk’ (88.4% 5-year RFS (95%CI 83.6−91.8), n = 261), and 26% as ‘high risk’ (61.1% 5-year RFS (95%CI 51.9−69.1), n = 137). Conclusion: In these two independent European cohorts, the CP-GEP model was able to stratify patients with stage I−II melanoma into two groups differentiated by RFS.
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Affiliation(s)
- Evalyn E. A. P. Mulder
- Departments of Surgical Oncology, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, 3015 GD Rotterdam, The Netherlands; (E.E.A.P.M.); (D.J.G.); (D.V.); (C.V.)
- Departments of Medical Oncology, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, 3015 GD Rotterdam, The Netherlands;
| | - Iva Johansson
- Departments of Pathology, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, 413 45 Gothenburg, Sweden;
- Departments of Oncology, Institute of Clinical Sciences at Sahlgrenska Academy, Gothenburg University, 405 30 Gothenburg, Sweden;
| | - Dirk J. Grünhagen
- Departments of Surgical Oncology, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, 3015 GD Rotterdam, The Netherlands; (E.E.A.P.M.); (D.J.G.); (D.V.); (C.V.)
| | - Dennie Tempel
- SkylineDx B.V., 3062 ME Rotterdam, The Netherlands; (D.T.); (B.R.-P.); (J.T.D.)
| | | | | | - Daniëlle Verver
- Departments of Surgical Oncology, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, 3015 GD Rotterdam, The Netherlands; (E.E.A.P.M.); (D.J.G.); (D.V.); (C.V.)
| | - Antien L. Mooyaart
- Department of Pathology, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, 3015 GD Rotterdam, The Netherlands;
| | - Astrid A. M. van der Veldt
- Departments of Medical Oncology, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, 3015 GD Rotterdam, The Netherlands;
- Departments of Radiology & Nuclear Medicine, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, 3015 GD Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Marlies Wakkee
- Departments of Dermatology, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, 3015 GD Rotterdam, The Netherlands; (M.W.); (T.E.C.N.)
| | - Tamar E. C. Nijsten
- Departments of Dermatology, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, 3015 GD Rotterdam, The Netherlands; (M.W.); (T.E.C.N.)
| | - Cornelis Verhoef
- Departments of Surgical Oncology, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, 3015 GD Rotterdam, The Netherlands; (E.E.A.P.M.); (D.J.G.); (D.V.); (C.V.)
| | - Jan Mattsson
- Departments of Surgery, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, 413 45 Gothenburg, Sweden; (J.M.); (R.O.B.)
| | - Lars Ny
- Departments of Oncology, Institute of Clinical Sciences at Sahlgrenska Academy, Gothenburg University, 405 30 Gothenburg, Sweden;
- Departments of Oncology, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, 413 45 Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Loes M. Hollestein
- Departments of Dermatology, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, 3015 GD Rotterdam, The Netherlands; (M.W.); (T.E.C.N.)
- Department of Research, Netherlands Comprehensive Cancer Organization (IKNL), 3511 DT Utrecht, The Netherlands
- Correspondence: ; Tel.: +31-6-5003-24-07
| | - Roger Olofsson Bagge
- Departments of Surgery, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, 413 45 Gothenburg, Sweden; (J.M.); (R.O.B.)
- Departments of Surgery, Institute of Clinical Sciences at Sahlgrenska Academy, Gothenburg University, 405 30 Gothenburg, Sweden
- Wallenberg Centre for Molecular and Translational Medicine, University of Gothenburg, 405 30 Gothenburg, Sweden
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Tokez S, Venables ZC, Hollestein LM, Qi H, Bramer EM, Rentroia-Pacheco B, van den Bos RR, Rous B, Leigh IM, Nijsten T, Mooyaart AL, Wakkee M. Risk factors for metastatic cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma: refinement and replication based on two nationwide nested case-control studies. J Am Acad Dermatol 2022; 87:64-71. [DOI: 10.1016/j.jaad.2022.02.056] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/26/2021] [Revised: 02/13/2022] [Accepted: 02/18/2022] [Indexed: 10/18/2022]
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Johansson I, Tempel D, Dwarkasing JT, Rentroia-Pacheco B, Mattsson J, Ny L, Olofsson Bagge R. Validation of a clinicopathological and gene expression profile model to identify patients with cutaneous melanoma where sentinel lymph node biopsy is unnecessary. Eur J Surg Oncol 2021; 48:320-325. [PMID: 34794843 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejso.2021.11.010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/30/2021] [Revised: 10/27/2021] [Accepted: 11/05/2021] [Indexed: 10/19/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND In patients with cutaneous melanoma, sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) serves as an important technique to asses disease stage and to guide adjuvant systemic therapy. A model using clinicopathologic and gene expression variables (CP-GEP; Merlin Assay) has recently been introduced to identify patients that may safely forgo SLNB. Herein we present data from an independent validation cohort of the CP-GEP model in Swedish patients. METHODS Archival histological material (primary melanoma tissue) from a prospectively collected cohort of 421 consecutive patients with pT1-T4 melanoma undergoing SLNB between 2006 and 2014 was analyzed using the CP-GEP model. CP-GEP combines Breslow thickness and patient age with the expression levels of eight genes from the primary melanoma. Stratification is based on their risk for nodal metastasis: CP-GEP Low Risk or CP-GEP High Risk. RESULTS The SLNB positivity rate was 13%. Of 421 primary melanomas, the CP-GEP model identified 86 patients as having a low risk for nodal metastasis. In patients with pT1-2 melanomas, the SLNB reduction rate was 35.4% (95% CI: 29.4-41.8) with a negative predictive value (NPV) of 96.5% (95% CI: 90.0-99.3). Among patients with pT1-3 melanomas, CP-GEP suggested a SLNB reduction rate of 24.0% (95% CI: 19.7-28.8) and a NPV of 96.5% (95% CI: 90.1-99.3). Only one of 118 pT3 tumors was classified as CP-GEP Low Risk, and all pT4 tumors were classified as being high risk for nodal metastasis. CONCLUSION This study demonstrates that CP-GEP can identify patients with a low risk for nodal metastasis. Patients with pT1-2 melanomas have the highest clinical benefit from using the test, where 35% of the patients could forgo a SLNB procedure.
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Affiliation(s)
- I Johansson
- Department of Pathology, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Gothenburg, Sweden; Department of Oncology, Institute of Clinical Sciences, Sahlgrenska Academy at the University of Gothenburg, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - D Tempel
- SkylineDx, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | | | | | - J Mattsson
- Department of Surgery, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - L Ny
- Department of Oncology, Institute of Clinical Sciences, Sahlgrenska Academy at the University of Gothenburg, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - R Olofsson Bagge
- Department of Surgery, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Gothenburg, Sweden; Sahlgrenska Center for Cancer Research, Department of Surgery, Institute of Clinical Sciences, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden; Wallenberg Centre for Molecular and Translational Medicine, University of Gothenburg, Sweden.
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Rentroia-Pacheco B, Tjien-Fooh FJ, Quattrocchi E, Kobic A, Wever R, Bellomo D, Meves A, Hieken TJ. Clinicopathologic models predicting non-sentinel lymph node metastasis in cutaneous melanoma patients: Are they useful for patients with a single positive sentinel node? J Surg Oncol 2021; 125:516-524. [PMID: 34735719 PMCID: PMC8799494 DOI: 10.1002/jso.26736] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/02/2021] [Revised: 10/20/2021] [Accepted: 10/27/2021] [Indexed: 12/03/2022]
Abstract
Background and Objectives Of clinically node‐negative (cN0) cutaneous melanoma patients with sentinel lymph node (SLN) metastasis, between 10% and 30% harbor additional metastases in non‐sentinel lymph nodes (NSLNs). Approximately 80% of SLN‐positive patients have a single positive SLN. Methods To assess whether state‐of‐the‐art clinicopathologic models predicting NSLN metastasis had adequate performance, we studied a single‐institution cohort of 143 patients with cN0 SLN‐positive primary melanoma who underwent subsequent completion lymph node dissection. We used sensitivity (SE) and positive predictive value (PPV) to characterize the ability of the models to identify patients at high risk for NSLN disease. Results Across Stage III patients, all clinicopathologic models tested had comparable performances. The best performing model identified 52% of NSLN‐positive patients (SE = 52%, PPV = 37%). However, for the single SLN‐positive subgroup (78% of cohort), none of the models identified high‐risk patients (SE > 20%, PPV > 20%) irrespective of the chosen probability threshold used to define the binary risk labels. Thus, we designed a new model to identify high‐risk patients with a single positive SLN, which achieved a sensitivity of 49% (PPV = 26%). Conclusion For the largest SLN‐positive subgroup, those with a single positive SLN, current model performance is inadequate. New approaches are needed to better estimate nodal disease burden of these patients.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - Ajdin Kobic
- Department of Dermatology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota, USA
| | - Renske Wever
- Division of Bioinformatics, SkylineDx B.V., Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Domenico Bellomo
- Division of Bioinformatics, SkylineDx B.V., Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Alexander Meves
- Department of Dermatology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota, USA.,Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota, USA
| | - Tina J Hieken
- Division of Breast and Melanoma Surgical Oncology, Department of Surgery, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota, USA
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Machado H, Bizarra-Rebelo T, Costa-Sequeira M, Trindade S, Carvalho T, Rijo-Ferreira F, Rentroia-Pacheco B, Serre K, Figueiredo LM. Trypanosoma brucei triggers a broad immune response in the adipose tissue. PLoS Pathog 2021; 17:e1009933. [PMID: 34525131 PMCID: PMC8476018 DOI: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1009933] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/14/2021] [Revised: 09/27/2021] [Accepted: 08/31/2021] [Indexed: 12/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Adipose tissue is one of the major reservoirs of Trypanosoma brucei parasites, the causative agent of sleeping sickness, a fatal disease in humans. In mice, the gonadal adipose tissue (AT) typically harbors 2–5 million parasites, while most solid organs show 10 to 100-fold fewer parasites. In this study, we tested whether the AT environment responds immunologically to the presence of the parasite. Transcriptome analysis of T. brucei infected adipose tissue revealed that most upregulated host genes are involved in inflammation and immune cell functions. Histochemistry and flow cytometry confirmed an increasingly higher number of infiltrated macrophages, neutrophils and CD4+ and CD8+ T lymphocytes upon infection. A large proportion of these lymphocytes effectively produce the type 1 effector cytokines, IFN-γ and TNF-α. Additionally, the adipose tissue showed accumulation of antigen-specific IgM and IgG antibodies as infection progressed. Mice lacking T and/or B cells (Rag2-/-, Jht-/-), or the signature cytokine (Ifng-/-) displayed a higher parasite load both in circulation and in the AT, demonstrating the key role of the adaptive immune system in both compartments. Interestingly, infections of C3-/- mice showed that while complement system is dispensable to control parasite load in the blood, it is necessary in the AT and other solid tissues. We conclude that T. brucei infection triggers a broad and robust immune response in the AT, which requires the complement system to locally reduce parasite burden. African trypanosomiasis is a neglected disease with significant socio-economic burden in sub-Saharan Africa. The protozoan parasite Trypanosoma brucei, a causative agent of African trypanosomiasis, can be found in the blood and extra-vascular spaces of the infected host. For an unknown reason, T. brucei accumulates in adipose tissue (AT) in very high numbers. Here we used a multidisciplinary approach to assess whether an immune response was mounted in AT during a T. brucei infection. We found that as infection progresses, a broad variety of immune cells and antibodies accumulate in the AT. We also found that this broad immune response is partially able to control parasite numbers in the AT. Our study provides evidence that T. brucei parasites present in the AT are subjected to immune surveillance. The reason why T. brucei accumulates to such a high extent in AT remains to be elucidated.
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Affiliation(s)
- Henrique Machado
- Instituto de Medicina Molecular João Lobo Antunes, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Tiago Bizarra-Rebelo
- Instituto de Medicina Molecular João Lobo Antunes, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Mariana Costa-Sequeira
- Instituto de Medicina Molecular João Lobo Antunes, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Sandra Trindade
- Instituto de Medicina Molecular João Lobo Antunes, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Tânia Carvalho
- Instituto de Medicina Molecular João Lobo Antunes, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Filipa Rijo-Ferreira
- Department of Neuroscience, Peter O’Donnell Jr. Brain Institute, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, Texas, United States
| | - Barbara Rentroia-Pacheco
- Instituto de Medicina Molecular João Lobo Antunes, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Karine Serre
- Instituto de Medicina Molecular João Lobo Antunes, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
- * E-mail: (KS); (LMF)
| | - Luisa M. Figueiredo
- Instituto de Medicina Molecular João Lobo Antunes, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
- * E-mail: (KS); (LMF)
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Yousaf A, Tjien-Fooh FJ, Rentroia-Pacheco B, Quattrocchi E, Kobic A, Tempel D, Kolodney M, Meves A. Validation of CP-GEP (Merlin Assay) for predicting sentinel lymph node metastasis in primary cutaneous melanoma patients: A U.S. cohort study. Int J Dermatol 2021; 60:851-856. [PMID: 33914348 PMCID: PMC8251603 DOI: 10.1111/ijd.15594] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/22/2020] [Revised: 03/18/2021] [Accepted: 03/23/2021] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Approximately 85% of melanoma patients who undergo a sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) are node-negative. Melanoma incidence is highest in patients ≥65 years, but their SLNB positivity rate is lower than in younger patients. CP-GEP, a model combining clinicopathologic and gene expression variables, identifies primary cutaneous melanoma (CM) patients who may safely forgo SLNB due to their low risk for nodal metastasis. Here, we validate CP-GEP in a U.S. melanoma patient cohort. METHODS A cohort of 208 adult patients with primary CM from the Mayo Clinic and West Virginia University was used. Patients were stratified according to their risk for nodal metastasis: CP-GEP High Risk and CP-GEP Low Risk. The main performance measures were SLNB reduction rate (RR) and negative predictive value (NPV). RESULTS SLNB positivity rate for the entire cohort was 21%. Most patients had a T1b (34%) or T2a (31%) melanoma. In the T1-T2 group (153 patients), CP-GEP achieved an SLNB RR of 41.8% (95% CI: 33.9-50.1) at an NPV of 93.8% (95% CI: 84.8-98.3). Subgroup analysis showed similar performance in T1-T2 patients ≥65 years of age (51 patients; SLNB positivity rate, 9.8%): SLNB RR of 43.1% (95% CI: 29.3-57.8) at an NPV of 95.5% (95% CI: 77.2-99.9). CONCLUSION We confirmed the potential of CP-GEP to reduce negative SLNB in all relevant age groups. Our findings are especially relevant to patients ≥65 years, where surgery is often elective. CP-GEP may guide SLNB decision-making in clinical practice.
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Eggermont AMM, Bellomo D, Arias-Mejias SM, Quattrocchi E, Sominidi-Damodaran S, Bridges AG, Lehman JS, Hieken TJ, Jakub JW, Murphree DH, Pittelkow MR, Sluzevich JC, Cappel MA, Bagaria SP, Perniciaro C, Tjien-Fooh FJ, Rentroia-Pacheco B, Wever R, van Vliet MH, Dwarkasing J, Meves A. Identification of stage I/IIA melanoma patients at high risk for disease relapse using a clinicopathologic and gene expression model. Eur J Cancer 2020; 140:11-18. [PMID: 33032086 PMCID: PMC7655519 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejca.2020.08.029] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/16/2020] [Revised: 07/09/2020] [Accepted: 08/16/2020] [Indexed: 12/25/2022]
Abstract
PURPOSE Patients with stage I/IIA cutaneous melanoma (CM) are currently not eligible for adjuvant therapies despite uncertainty in relapse risk. Here, we studied the ability of a recently developed model which combines clinicopathologic and gene expression variables (CP-GEP) to identify stage I/IIA melanoma patients who have a high risk for disease relapse. PATIENTS AND METHODS Archival specimens from a cohort of 837 consecutive primary CMs were used for assessing the prognostic performance of CP-GEP. The CP-GEP model combines Breslow thickness and patient age, with the expression of eight genes in the primary tumour. Our specific patient group, represented by 580 stage I/IIA patients, was stratified based on their risk of relapse: CP-GEP High Risk and CP-GEP Low Risk. The main clinical end-point of this study was five-year relapse-free survival (RFS). RESULTS Within the stage I/IIA melanoma group, CP-GEP identified a high-risk patient group (47% of total stage I/IIA patients) which had a considerably worse five-year RFS than the low-risk patient group; 74% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 67%-80%) versus 89% (95% CI: 84%-93%); hazard ratio [HR] = 2.98 (95% CI: 1.78-4.98); P < 0.0001. Of patients in the high-risk group, those who relapsed were most likely to do so within the first 3 years. CONCLUSION The CP-GEP model can be used to identify stage I/IIA patients who have a high risk for disease relapse. These patients may benefit from adjuvant therapy.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Mark A Cappel
- Mayo Clinic, Jacksonville, FL, USA; Gulf Coast Dermatopathology Laboratory, Tampa, FL, USA
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