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Sekhar H, Malcomson L, Kochhar R, Sperrin M, Alam N, Chakrbarty B, Fulford PE, Wilson MS, O'Dwyer ST, Saunders MP, Renehan AG. Temporal improvements in loco-regional failure and survival in patients with anal cancer treated with chemo-radiotherapy: treatment cohort study (1990-2014). Br J Cancer 2020; 122:749-758. [PMID: 31932755 PMCID: PMC7078229 DOI: 10.1038/s41416-019-0689-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/06/2019] [Revised: 08/23/2019] [Accepted: 08/28/2019] [Indexed: 01/20/2023] Open
Abstract
Background We evaluated oncological changes in patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the anus (SCCA) treated by chemoradiotherapy (CRT) from a large UK institute, to derive estimates of contemporary outcomes. Methods We performed a treatment-cohort analysis in 560 patients with non-metastatic SCCA treated with CRT over 25 years. The primary outcomes were 3-year loco-regional failure (LRF), 5-year overall survival (OS), and 5-year cancer-specific survival (CSS). We developed prediction models; and overlaid estimates on published results from historic trials. Results Age distributions, proportions by gender and cT stage remained stable over time. The median follow-up was 61 (IQR: 36–79) months. Comparing the first period (1990–1994) with the last period (2010–2014), 3-year LRF declined from 33 to 16% (Ptrends < 0.001); 5-year OS increased from 60% to 76% (Ptrends = 0.001); and 5-year CCS increased from 62% in to 80% (Ptrends = 0.001). For 2020, the models predicted a 3-year LRF of 14.7% (95% CIs: 0–31.3); 5-year OS of 74.7% (95% CIs: 54.6–94.9); and 5-year CSS of 85.7% (95% CIs: 75.3–96.0). Reported oncological outcomes from historic trials generally underestimated contemporary outcomes. Conclusions Current and predicted rates for 3-year LRF and 5-year survivals are considerably improved compared with those in historic trials.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hema Sekhar
- Division of Cancer Sciences, School of Medical Sciences, Faculty of Biological, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | - Lee Malcomson
- Division of Cancer Sciences, School of Medical Sciences, Faculty of Biological, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | - Rohit Kochhar
- Department of Radiology, The Christie NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, UK
| | - Matthew Sperrin
- Health eResearch Centre, Farr Institute, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | - Nooreen Alam
- Department of Clinical Oncology, The Christie NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, UK
| | - Bipasha Chakrbarty
- Department of Pathology, The Christie NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, UK
| | - Paul E Fulford
- Colorectal and Peritoneal Oncology Centre, The Christie NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, UK
| | - Malcolm S Wilson
- Colorectal and Peritoneal Oncology Centre, The Christie NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, UK
| | - Sarah T O'Dwyer
- Colorectal and Peritoneal Oncology Centre, The Christie NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, UK
| | - Mark P Saunders
- Department of Clinical Oncology, The Christie NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, UK
| | - Andrew G Renehan
- Division of Cancer Sciences, School of Medical Sciences, Faculty of Biological, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK. .,Colorectal and Peritoneal Oncology Centre, The Christie NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, UK.
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