Caries Risk Prediction Models in a Medical Health Care Setting

Despite development of new technologies for caries control, tooth decay in primary teeth remains a major global health problem. Caries risk assessment (CRA) models for toddlers and preschoolers are rare. Among them, almost all models use dental factors (e.g., past caries experience) to predict future caries risk, with limited clinical/community applicability owing to relatively uncommon dental visits compared to frequent medical visits during the first year of life. The objective of this study was to construct and evaluate risk prediction models using information easily accessible to medical practitioners to forecast caries at 2 and 3 y of age. Data were obtained from the Growing Up in Singapore Towards Healthy Outcomes (GUSTO) mother-offspring cohort. Caries was diagnosed using modified International Caries Detection and Assessment System criteria. Risk prediction models were constructed using multivariable logistic regression coupled with receiver operating characteristic analyses. Imputation was performed using multiple imputation by chained equations to assess effect of missing data. Caries rates at ages 2 y (n = 535) and 3 y (n = 721) were 17.8% and 42.9%, respectively. Risk prediction models predicting overall caries risk at 2 and 3 y demonstrated area under the curve (AUC) (95% confidence interval) of 0.81 (0.75-0.87) and 0.79 (0.74-0.84), respectively, while those predicting moderate to extensive lesions showed 0.91 (0.85-0.97) and 0.79 (0.73-0.85), respectively. Postimputation results showed reduced AUC of 0.75 (0.74-0.81) and 0.71 (0.67-0.75) at years 2 and 3, respectively, for overall caries risk, while AUC was 0.84 (0.76-0.92) and 0.75 (0.70-0.80), respectively, for moderate to extensive caries. Addition of anterior caries significantly increased AUC in all year 3 models with or without imputation (all P < 0.05). Significant predictors/protectors were identified, including ethnicity, prenatal tobacco smoke exposure, history of allergies before 12 mo, history of chronic maternal illness, maternal brushing frequency, childbearing age, and so on. Integrating oral-general health care using medical CRA models may be promising in screening caries-susceptible infants/toddlers, especially when medical professionals are trained to "lift the lip" to identify anterior caries lesions.

Identification of Caries Risk Determinants in Toddlers: Results of the GUSTO Birth Cohort Study

The aim of this study was to identify risk determinants leading to early childhood caries (ECC) and visible plaque (VP) in toddlers. Data for mother-child pairs participating in the Growing Up in Singapore towards Healthy Outcomes (GUSTO) birth cohort were collected from pregnancy to toddlerhood. Oral examinations were performed in 543 children during their clinic visit at 24 months to detect ECC and VP. Following logistic regression, ECC and VP were jointly regressed as primary and secondary outcomes, respectively, using the bivariate probit model. The ECC prevalence was 17.8% at 2 years of age, with 7.3% of children having a VP score >1. ECC was associated with nighttime breastfeeding (3 weeks) and biological factors, including Indian ethnicity (lower ECC rate), higher maternal childbearing age and existing health conditions, maternal plasma folate <6 ng/mL, child BMI, and the plaque index, while VP was associated with psychobehavioral factors, including the frequency of dental visits, brushing frequency, lower parental perceived importance of baby teeth, and weaning onto solids. Interestingly, although a higher frequency of dental visits and toothbrushing were associated with lower plaque accumulation, they were associated with increased ECC risk, suggesting that these established caries-risk factors may be a consequence rather than the cause of ECC. In conclusion, Indian toddlers may be less susceptible to ECC, compared to Chinese and Malay toddlers. The study also highlights a problem-driven utilization pattern of dental services (care sought for treatment) in Singapore, in contrast to the prevention-driven approach (care sought to prevent disease) in Western countries.