A Weather-Driven Model for Predicting Infections of Grapevines by Sporangia of Plasmopara viticola

A mechanistic model was developed to predict secondary infections of Plasmopara viticola and their severity as influenced by environmental conditions; the model incorporates the processes of sporangia production and survival on downy mildew (DM) lesions, dispersal and deposition, and infection. The model was evaluated against observed data (collected in a 3-year vineyard) for its accuracy to predict periods with no sporangia (i.e., for negative prognosis) or with peaks of sporangia, so that growers can identify periods with no/low risk or high risk. The model increased the probability to correctly predict no sporangia [P(P-O-) = 0.67] by two times compared to the prior probability, with fewer than 3% of the total sporangia found in the vineyard being sampled when not predicted by the model. The model also correctly predicted peaks of sporangia, with only 1 of 40 peaks unpredicted. When evaluated for the negative prognosis of infection periods, the model showed a posterior probability for infection not to occur when not predicted P(P-O-) = 0.87 with only 9 of 108 real infections not predicted; these unpredicted infections were mild, accounting for only 4.4% of the total DM lesions observed in the vineyard. In conclusion, the model was able to identify periods in which the DM risk was nil or very low. It may, therefore, help growers avoid fungicide sprays when not needed and lengthen the interval between two sprays, i.e., it will help growers move from calendar-based to risk-based fungicide schedules for the control of P. viticola in vineyards.

Can Spore Sampler Data Be Used to Predict Plasmopara viticola Infection in Vineyards?

Grapevine downy mildew (DM) is caused by the dimorphic oomycete Plasmopara viticola, which incites epidemics through primary and secondary infection cycles that occur throughout the season. The secondary infection cycles are caused by the sporangia produced on DM lesions. The current research examined the relationship between numbers of airborne sporangia and DM development on grape leaves to determine whether spore sampler data can be useful to predict the potential for secondary infections of P. viticola. Three years (2015-2017) of spore sampler data confirmed that sporangia are a common component of the airborne microflora in a DM-infested vineyard and that their numbers depend on weather conditions. For a total of 108 days, leaf samples were collected from the vineyard at 2- to 3-day intervals and incubated under optimal conditions for P. viticola infection. The numbers of airborne sporangia sampled on 1 to 7 days before leaf sampling were significantly correlated with the numbers of DM lesions on the leaves. The best correlation (r=0.59), however, was found for the numbers of viable airborne sporangia (SPV), which were assessed by using equations driven by the vapour pressure deficit. In Bayesian and ROC curve analyses, SPV was found to be a good predictor of P. viticola infection of grape leaves, with AUROC=0.821 and false positive predictions mainly occurring at low SPV. A binary logistic regression showed that a threshold of 2.52 viable sporangia m^-3 air day^-1 enables a prediction of no infection with a posterior probability of 0.870, which was higher than the prior probability of 0.574. Numbers of viable sporangia in the vineyard air is therefore a useful predictor of infection and especially of no infection. The predictor missed some observed infections, but these infections were not severe (they accounted for only 31 of 374 DM lesions).

Biocontrol of Botrytis cinerea on Grape Berries as Influenced by Temperature and Humidity

Six commercial biocontrol agents (BCAs, containing Aureobasidium pullulans, Bacillus amyloliquefaciens, Bacillus amyloliquefaciens plantarum, Bacillus subtilis, Pythium oligandrum, or Trichoderma atroviride) were applied to ripening berries that were then incubated at one of four temperatures (T, 15, 20, 25, and 30°C) and one of four relative humidity levels (RH, 60, 80, 90, and 100%). After 1 to 13 days of incubation (BCA colonization period), the berries were inoculated with conidia of Botrytis cinerea and kept at 25°C and 100% RH for 7 days, at which time Botrytis bunch rot (BBR) was assessed. The response of BBR control to T/RH conditions and BCA colonization period differed among BCAs; the coefficients of variation among the BCAs ranged from 44.7 to 72.4%. An equation was developed that accounted for the combined effects of T, RH, and BCA colonization period on BBR control. The equation, which had an R²>0.94, could help farmers select the BCA to be used for a specific application based on weather conditions at the time of treatment and in the following days.