Lifetime years married held steady for men with a BA degree since 1960 but dropped to lowest level since 1880 for men without a BA

Trends in life expectancy and marriage patterns work together to determine expected lifetime years married. In 1880, adult life expectancy was short and marriages were more likely to end by death than divorce. Since then, although there have been substantial life expectancy gains in adulthood, marriage has been increasingly delayed or forgone and cohabitation and divorce are far more prevalent. Whether adults today can expect to spend more or fewer years married than in the past depends on the relative magnitude of changes in mortality and marriage. We estimate trends in men's expected lifetime years married (and in other marital statuses) from 1880 to 2019 and by bachelor's degree (BA) status from 1960 to 2019. Our results show a rise in men's expected lifetime years married between 1880 and the Baby Boom era and a subsequent fall. There are large and growing differences by BA status. Men with a BA have had high and relatively stable expected lifetime years married since 1960. For men without a BA, expected lifetime years married has plummeted to lows not seen among men since 1880. Cohabitation accounts for a substantial fraction, although not all, of these declines. Our results demonstrate how increasing inequality in both life expectancy and marriage patterns combine to amplify educational differences in lifetime experiences of coresidential partnerships.

Opportunity and change in occupational assortative mating

This article documents how opportunity and change in the U.S. occupational structure shaped patterns of occupational assortative mating between 1970 and 2015-2017. Trends in occupational assortative mating have often been cited as potentially contributing to the rise in economic inequality-the idea that doctors increasingly marry doctors instead of nurses-thereby exacerbating the concentration of resources among advantaged households. Previous estimates of trends in occupational assortative mating are now decades old and their impact on household inequality has not been quantified. Our results show large-scale change. The prevalence of dual-professional couples nearly tripled between 1970 and 2015-2017. Changes were especially large among particular occupational combinations. For instance, male doctors have become increasingly likely to be married to female doctors, and male lawyers to female lawyers. Almost all of the changes in occupational assortative mating patterns, however, are accounted for by changes in the distributions of spouses' occupations, for example, the rise of women in professional occupations. Because of this, the contribution of occupational assortative mating to the rise in economic inequality has been small. In the absence of any association between spouses' occupations, observed increases in household earnings inequality would have been reduced by 5%. Although this is a small portion of overall changes in inequality, it is much larger than prior estimates of the effects of educational assortative mating on inequality, which recent studies have estimated to be essentially zero.

Changes in Couples' Earnings Following Parenthood and Trends in Family Earnings Inequality

The growing economic similarity of spouses has contributed to rising income inequality across households. Explanations have typically centered on assortative mating, but recent work has argued that changes in women's employment and spouses' division of paid work have played a more important role. We expand this work to consider the critical turning point of parenthood in shaping couples' division of employment and earnings. Drawing on three U.S. nationally representative surveys, we examine the role of parenthood in spouses' earnings correlations between 1968 and 2015. We examine the extent to which changes in spouses' earnings correlations are due to (1) changes upon entry into marriage (assortative mating), (2) changes between marriage and parenthood, (3) changes following parenthood, and (4) changes in women's employment. Our findings show that increases in the correlation between spouses' earnings prior to 1990 came largely from changes between marriage and first birth, but increases after 1990 came almost entirely from changes following parenthood. In both instances, changes in women's employment are key to increasing earnings correlations. Changes in assortative mating played little role in either period. An assessment of the aggregate-level implications points to the growing significance of earnings similarity after parenthood for rising income inequality across families.

The Demography of Families: A Review of Patterns and Change

The authors review demographic trends and research on families in the United States, with a special focus on the past decade. They consider the following several topics: (a) marriage and remarriage, (b) divorce, (c) cohabitation, (d) fertility, (e) same-gender unions, (f) immigrant families, and (g) children's living arrangements. Throughout, the authors review both overall trends and patterns as well as those by social class and race-ethnicity. The authors discuss major strands of recent research, emphasizing emerging themes and promising directions. They close with a summary of central patterns and trends and conclude that recent trends are not as uniform as they tended to be in earlier decades, making the description of family change increasingly complex.

Hukou intermarriage and social exclusion in China

Hukou is a key marker of status in contemporary China. Urban hukou status confers large economic benefits such as preferential access to good schools, prestigious occupations, and state-subsidized welfare benefits. As such, trends in hukou intermarriage convey important but underappreciated information about social mobility in China. This article examines trends in hukou intermarriage between 1958 and 2008. We find that hukou intermarriage is surprisingly common and has grown steadily since 1985. Hypotheses derived from Western contexts do little to explain this trend. Increased education, economic inequality, and availability each fail to explain trends as predicted in prior work. A common hypothesis is that increased inequality should reduce intermarriage by making it more costly to "marry down." We find the opposite-increasing inequality is associated with increasing hukou intermarriage, particularly between urban men and rural women, which is consistent with the hypothesis that the costs of marrying down may be outweighed by the incentives to marry up in this context. Our results also suggest hukou conversion plays a key role in increased intermarriage. These findings highlight the uniqueness of the Chinese context and suggest that standard hypotheses about assortative mating may not be applicable in contexts with strong state-controlled social boundaries.

The End of Hypergamy: Global Trends and Implications

The gender gap in education that has long favored men has reversed for young adults in almost all high and middle-income countries. In 2010, the proportion of women aged 25-29 with a college education was higher than that of men in more than 139 countries which altogether represent 86% of the world's population. According to recent population forecasts, women will have more education than men in nearly every country in the world by 2050, with the exception of only a few African and West Asian countries (KC et al. 2010). The reversal of the gender gap in education has major implications for the composition of marriage markets, assortative mating, gender equality, and marital outcomes such as divorce and childbearing (Van Bavel 2012). In this work, we focus on its implications for trends in assortative mating and, in particular, for educational hypergamy: the pattern in which husbands have more education than their wives. This represents a substantial update to previous studies (Esteve et al. 2012) in terms of the number of countries and years included in the analysis. We present findings from an almost comprehensive world-level analysis using census and survey microdata from 420 samples and 120 countries spanning from 1960 to 2011, which allow us to assert that the reversal of the gender gap in education is strongly associated with the end of hypergamy and increases in hypogamy (wives have more education that their husbands). We not only provide near universal evidence of this trend but extend our analysis to consider the implications of the end of hypergamy for family dynamics, outcomes and gender equality. We draw on European microdata to examine whether women are more likely to be the breadwinners when they marry men with lower education than themselves and discuss recent research regarding divorce risks among hypogamous couples. We close our analysis with an examination of attitudes about women earning more money than their husbands and about the implications for children when a woman works for pay.

Marrying Up by Marrying Down: Status Exchange between Social Origin and Education in the United States

Intermarriage plays a key role in stratification systems. Spousal resemblance reinforces social boundaries within and across generations, and the rules of intermarriage govern the ways that social mobility may occur. We examine intermarriage across social origin and education boundaries in the United States using data from the 1968-2013 Panel Study of Income Dynamics. Our evidence points to a pattern of status exchange-that is, persons with high education from modest backgrounds tend to marry those with lower education from more privileged backgrounds. Our study contributes to an active methodological debate by pinpointing the conditions under which the results pivot from evidence against exchange to evidence for exchange and advances theory by showing that the rules of exchange are more consistent with the notion of diminishing marginal utility than the more general theory of compensating differentials.

Trends in Relative Earnings and Marital Dissolution: Are Wives Who Outearn Their Husbands Still More Likely to Divorce?

As women's labor-force participation and earnings have grown, so has the likelihood that wives outearn their husbands. A common concern is that these couples may be at heightened risk of divorce. Yet with the rise of egalitarian marriage, wives' relative earnings may be more weakly associated with divorce than in the past. We examine trends in the association between wives' relative earnings and marital dissolution using data from the 1968-2009 Panel Study of Income Dynamics. We find that wives' relative earnings were positively associated with the risk of divorce among couples married in the late 1960s and 1970s, and that this was especially true for wives who outearned their husbands, but this was no longer the case for couples married in the 1990s. Change was concentrated among middle-earning husbands and those without college degrees, a finding consistent with the economic squeeze of the middle class over this period.

The Reversal of the Gender Gap in Education and Trends in Marital Dissolution

The reversal of the gender gap in education has potentially far-reaching consequences for marriage markets, family formation, and relationship outcomes. One possible consequence of this is the growing number of marriages in which wives have more education than their husbands. Previous studies have found this type of union to be at higher risk of dissolution. Using data on marriages formed between 1950 and 2004 in the United States, we evaluate whether this association has persisted as the prevalence of this relationship type has increased. Our results show a large shift in the association between spouses' relative education and marital dissolution. In particular, we confirm that marriages in which wives have the educational advantage were once more likely to dissolve, but we show that this association has disappeared in more recent marriage cohorts. Another key finding is that the relative stability of marriages between educational equals has increased. These results are consistent with a shift away from rigid gender specialization toward more flexible, egalitarian partnerships and provide an important counterpoint to claims that progress toward gender equality in heterosexual relationships has stalled.

The proximate determinants of educational homogamy: the effects of first marriage, marital dissolution, remarriage, and educational upgrading

This paper adapts the population balancing equation to develop a framework for studying the proximate determinants of educational homogamy. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth on a cohort of women born between 1957 and 1964, we decompose the odds of homogamy in prevailing marriages into four proximate determinants: (1) first marriages, (2) first and later marital dissolutions, (3) remarriages, and (4) educational attainment after marriage. The odds of homogamy among new first marriages are lower than among prevailing marriages, but not because of selective marital dissolution, remarriage, and educational attainment after marriage, as has been speculated. Prevailing marriages are more likely to be educationally homogamous than new first marriages because of the accumulation of homogamous first marriages in the stock of marriages. First marriages overwhelmingly account for the odds of homogamy in prevailing marriages in this cohort. Marital dissolutions, remarriages, and educational upgrades after marriage have relatively small and offsetting effects. Our results suggest that, despite the high prevalence of divorce, remarriage, and continued schooling after marriage in the United States, the key to understanding trends in educational homogamy lies primarily in variation in assortative mating into first marriage.

Sexual frequency decline from midlife to later life

OBJECTIVE

To examine sexual frequency decline among American men and women between the ages of 44 and 72 born from 1933 to 1948.

METHOD

Using data from the National Health and Social Life Survey (NHSLS) and the National Social Life, Health, and Aging Project (NSHAP), the decline in sexual frequency is decomposed into declines due to changes in marital status, physical health, and happiness. We examine the contribution of both changes in the composition of the population with respect to these factors as well as changes in the association between these factors and sexual frequency by age.

RESULTS

For women, change in the proportion widowed is a significant factor in sexual frequency decline, as is change in the association between happiness and sexual frequency. Among men, both poorer physical health at older ages and a decrease in its association with frequency are significant factors in the decline. A change in the association between happiness and frequency is also a significant factor for men. Reverse causality may explain the happiness-frequency findings for both men and women.

DISCUSSION

Results provide evidence for gendered experiences in the sexual life course.

Pathways to educational homogamy in marital and cohabiting unions

There is considerable disagreement about whether cohabitors are more or less likely to be educationally homogamous than married couples. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, I reconcile many of the disparate findings of previous research by conducting a "stock and flow" analysis of assortative cohabitation and marriage. I find that cohabitors are less likely to be educationally homogamous than married couples overall, but these differences are not apparent when cohabiting and marital unions begin. Instead, the results suggest that differences in educational homogamy by union type are driven by selective exits from marriage and cohabitation rather than by differences in partner choice. Marriages that cross educational boundaries are particularly likely to end. The findings suggest that although cohabitors place greater emphasis on egalitarianism than married couples, this does not translate into greater educational homogamy. The findings are also consistent with a large body of research on cohabitation and divorce questioning the effectiveness of cohabitation as a trial marriage.

Earnings Inequality and the Changing Association between Spouses' Earnings

Increases in the association between spouses' earnings have the potential to increase inequality as marriages increasingly consist of two high-earning or two low-earning partners. This article uses log-linear models and data from the March Current Population Survey to describe trends in the association between spouses' earnings and estimate their contribution to growing earnings inequality among married couples from 1967 to 2005. The results indicate that increases in earnings inequality would have been about 25%-30% lower than observed in the absence of changes in the association, depending on the inequality measure used. Three components of these changes and how they vary across the earnings distribution are explored.

NEIGHBORHOOD NORMS AND SUBSTANCE USE AMONG TEENS

This paper uses new data from the Los Angeles Family and Neighborhood Survey (L.A. FANS) to examine how neighborhood norms shape teenagers' substance use. Specifically, it takes advantage of clustered data at the neighborhood level to relate adult neighbors' attitudes and behavior with respect to smoking, drinking, and drugs, which we treat as norms, to teenagers' own smoking, drinking, and drug use. We use hierarchical linear models to account for parents' attitudes and behavior and other characteristics of individuals and families. We also investigate how the association between neighborhood norms and teen behavior depends on: (1) the strength of norms, as measured by consensus in neighbors' attitudes and conformity in their behavior; (2) the willingness and ability of neighbors to enforce norms, for instance, by monitoring teens' activities; and (3) the degree to which teens are exposed to their neighbors. We find little association between neighborhood norms and teen substance use, regardless of how we condition the relationship. We discuss possible theoretical and methodological explanations for this finding.

Trends in educational assortative marriage from 1940 to 2003

This paper reports trends in educational assortative marriage from 1940 to 2003 in the United States. Analyses of census and Current Population Survey data show that educational homogamy decreased from 1940 to 1960 but increased from 1960 to 2003. From 1960 to the early 1970s, increases in educational homogamy were generated by decreasing intermarriage among groups of relatively well-educated persons. College graduates, in particular; were increasingly likely to marry each other rather than those with less education. Beginning in the early 1970s, however; continued increases in the odds of educational homogamy were generated by decreases in intermarriage at both ends of the education distribution. Most striking is the decline in the odds that those with very low levels of education marry up. Intermarriage between college graduates and those with "some college" continued to decline but at a more gradual pace. As intermarriage declined at the extremes of the education distribution, intermarriage among those in the middle portion of the distribution increased. These trends, which are similar for a broad cross section of married couples and for newlyweds, are consistent with a growing social divide between those with very low levels of education and those with more education in the United States.