Satapathy SK, Thornburgh C, Heda R, Jiang Y, Kedia SK, Nair SP, Eason JD, Maluf D. Predicting harmful alcohol relapse after liver transplant: The HALT score.
Clin Transplant 2020;
34:e14003. [PMID:
32506677 DOI:
10.1111/ctr.14003]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/11/2019] [Revised: 05/18/2020] [Accepted: 05/29/2020] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND
Alcohol-associated liver disease (AALD) is a rapidly growing indication for liver transplantation (LT). We aimed to examine various clinical, demographic, and behavioral factors to predict post-LT alcohol relapse and graft survival.
METHODS
Retrospective analysis was performed on 241 LT recipients with AALD as either a primary or secondary indication for LT (2006-2015).
RESULTS
Patients with <6 months of alcohol abstinence had significantly increased cumulative incidence for alcohol relapse compared to those with >6 months of abstinence (P = .0041, Log-Rank). We identified four variables to predict harmful alcohol relapse post-LT: age at LT, non-alcohol-related criminal history, pre-LT abstinence period (Ref >6 months of alcohol abstinence), and drinks per day (Ref <10 drinks/day). Area under the curve (AUC) for the final model was 0.79 (95% CI: 0.68-0.91). Our multivariable model was evaluated with internal cross-validation; random sampling of the study subjects 100 times yielded a median C statistic of 75 (±SD 0.097) and accuracy of 91 (±SD 0.026). The four-variable model served to form the harmful alcohol use post-LT (HALT) score. Graft survival remained significantly lower in patients with <6 months of pre-LT alcohol abstinence and those with blue-collar jobs.
CONCLUSION
The HALT score identifies LT candidates with AALD at significant risk for alcohol relapse, potentially guiding transplant centers for pre- and post-LT interventions for improved patient outcomes.
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