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Mehanna H, Rapozo D, von Zeidler SV, Harrington KJ, Winter SC, Hartley A, Nankivell P, Schache AG, Sloan P, Odell EW, Thavaraj S, Hunter KD, Shah KA, Thomas GJ, Long A, Amel-Kashipaz R, Brown RM, Conn B, Hall GL, Matthews P, Weir J, Yeo Y, Pring M, West CM, McCaul J, Golusinski P, Sitch A, Spruce R, Batis N, Bryant JL, Brooks JM, Jones TM, Buffa F, Haider S, Robinson M. Developing and Validating a Multivariable Prognostic-Predictive Classifier for Treatment Escalation of Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma: The PREDICTR-OPC Study. Clin Cancer Res 2024; 30:356-367. [PMID: 37870417 PMCID: PMC10792360 DOI: 10.1158/1078-0432.ccr-23-1013] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/05/2023] [Revised: 06/09/2023] [Accepted: 10/16/2023] [Indexed: 10/24/2023]
Abstract
PURPOSE While there are several prognostic classifiers, to date, there are no validated predictive models that inform treatment selection for oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC).Our aim was to develop clinical and/or biomarker predictive models for patient outcome and treatment escalation for OPSCC. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN We retrospectively collated clinical data and samples from a consecutive cohort of OPSCC cases treated with curative intent at ten secondary care centers in United Kingdom and Poland between 1999 and 2012. We constructed tissue microarrays, which were stained and scored for 10 biomarkers. We then undertook multivariable regression of eight clinical parameters and 10 biomarkers on a development cohort of 600 patients. Models were validated on an independent, retrospectively collected, 385-patient cohort. RESULTS A total of 985 subjects (median follow-up 5.03 years, range: 4.73-5.21 years) were included. The final biomarker classifier, comprising p16 and survivin immunohistochemistry, high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA in situ hybridization, and tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes, predicted benefit from combined surgery + adjuvant chemo/radiotherapy over primary chemoradiotherapy in the high-risk group [3-year overall survival (OS) 63.1% vs. 41.1%, respectively, HR = 0.32; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.16-0.65; P = 0.002], but not in the low-risk group (HR = 0.4; 95% CI, 0.14-1.24; P = 0.114). On further adjustment by propensity scores, the adjusted HR in the high-risk group was 0.34, 95% CI = 0.17-0.67, P = 0.002, and in the low-risk group HR was 0.5, 95% CI = 0.1-2.38, P = 0.384. The concordance index was 0.73. CONCLUSIONS We have developed a prognostic classifier, which also appears to demonstrate moderate predictive ability. External validation in a prospective setting is now underway to confirm this and prepare for clinical adoption.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hisham Mehanna
- Institute of Head and Neck Studies and Education, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom
| | - Davy Rapozo
- National Cancer Institute of Brazil, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Sandra V. von Zeidler
- Pathology Department and Biotechnology Post-graduation Program, Federal University of Espírito Santo, Vitória, Brazil
| | - Kevin J. Harrington
- The Royal Marsden/The Institute of Cancer Research National Institute of Health Research Biomedical Research Centre, London, United Kingdom
| | - Stuart C. Winter
- Department of ENT-Head and Neck Surgery, Churchill Hospital, Nuffield Department of Surgery, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Andrew Hartley
- Hall-Edwards Radiotherapy Research Group, University Hospitals Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom
| | - Paul Nankivell
- Institute of Head and Neck Studies and Education, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom
| | - Andrew G. Schache
- Northwest Cancer Research Centre, Department of Molecular & Clinical Cancer Medicine, University of Liverpool Head & Neck Unit, University Hospital Aintree, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | - Philip Sloan
- Center for Oral Health Research, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, United Kingdom
| | - Edward W. Odell
- Head and Neck Pathology, King's College London, Guy's Hospital, London, United Kingdom
| | - Selvam Thavaraj
- Faculty of Dental, Oral and Craniofacial Sciences, King's College London, London, United Kingdom
- Head and Neck Pathology at Guy's & St Thomas' Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, London, United Kingdom
| | - Keith D. Hunter
- Liverpool Head and Neck Centre, Molecular and Clinical Medicine, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | - Ketan A. Shah
- Department of Cellular Pathology, John Radcliffe Hospital, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Gareth J. Thomas
- Cancer Sciences Unit, University of Southampton, University Road, Southampton, United Kingdom
| | - Anna Long
- Cellular Pathology, Newcastle upon Tyne Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Newcastle upon Tyne, United Kingdom
| | | | - Rachel M. Brown
- University Hospitals Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, United Kingdom
| | - Brendan Conn
- Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland
| | | | - Paul Matthews
- Department of Pathology, University Hospitals Coventry and Warwickshire, United Kingdom
| | - Justin Weir
- Department of Cellular Pathology, Charing Cross Hospital, Imperial College Healthcare Trust, London, United Kingdom
| | - Yen Yeo
- Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, KK Women's and Children's Hospital, Singapore
| | - Miranda Pring
- Bristol Dental School, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
| | - Catharine M.L. West
- Division of Cancer Studies, University of Manchester, Christie Hospital NHS Trust, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, Manchester, United Kingdom
| | - James McCaul
- Department of Maxillofacial and Head and Neck Surgery, Queen Elizabeth II Hospital, Glasgow, Scotland
| | - Pawel Golusinski
- Department of Otolaryngology and Maxillofacial Surgery, University of Zielona Gora, Zielona Gora, Poland
| | - Alice Sitch
- Institute of Applied Health Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom
- NIHR Birmingham Biomedical Research Centre, University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust, Birmingham, United Kingdom
| | | | - Nikolaos Batis
- Institute of Head and Neck Studies and Education, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom
| | - Jennifer L. Bryant
- Institute of Head and Neck Studies and Education, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom
| | - Jill M. Brooks
- Institute of Head and Neck Studies and Education, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom
| | - Terence M. Jones
- Northwest Cancer Research Centre, Department of Molecular & Clinical Cancer Medicine, University of Liverpool Head & Neck Unit, University Hospital Aintree, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | - Francesca Buffa
- Department of Oncology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
- Department of Computing Sciences, Bocconi University, Milano, Italy
| | - Syed Haider
- Department of Oncology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
- The Breast Cancer Now Toby Robins Research Centre, The Institute of Cancer Research, London, United Kingdom
| | - Max Robinson
- Center for Oral Health Research, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, United Kingdom
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Schache AG, Powell NG, Cuschieri KS, Robinson M, Leary S, Mehanna H, Rapozo D, Long A, Cubie H, Junor E, Monaghan H, Harrington KJ, Nutting CM, Schick U, Lau AS, Upile N, Sheard J, Brougham K, West CML, Oguejiofor K, Thomas S, Ness AR, Pring M, Thomas GJ, King EV, McCance DJ, James JA, Moran M, Sloan P, Shaw RJ, Evans M, Jones TM. HPV-Related Oropharynx Cancer in the United Kingdom: An Evolution in the Understanding of Disease Etiology. Cancer Res 2016; 76:6598-6606. [PMID: 27569214 PMCID: PMC9158514 DOI: 10.1158/0008-5472.can-16-0633] [Citation(s) in RCA: 115] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/05/2016] [Revised: 05/27/2016] [Accepted: 07/17/2016] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
A rising incidence of oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) incidence has occurred throughout the developed world, where it has been attributed to an increasing impact of human papillomavirus (HPV) on disease etiology. This report presents the findings of a multicenter cross-sectional retrospective study aimed at determining the proportion of HPV-positive and HPV-negative OPSCC within the United Kingdom. Archival tumor tissue blocks from 1,602 patients previously diagnosed with OPSCC (2002-2011) were collated from 11 centers. HPV status was determined with three validated commercial tests to provide valid data for 1,474 cases in total. Corresponding national incidence data from the same decade were obtained from UK Cancer registries. The overall proportion of HPV+ OPSCC between 2002 and 2011 was 51.8% [95% confidence interval (CI), 49.3-54.4], and this remained unchanged throughout the decade [unadjusted RR = 1.00 (95% CI, 0.99-1.02)]. However, over the same period, the incidence of OPSCC in the broader UK population underwent a 2-fold increase [age-standardized rate 2002: 2.1 (95% CI, 1.9-2.2); 2011: 4.1 (95% CI, 4.0-4.3)]. Although the number of OPSCCs diagnosed within the United Kingdom from 2002 to 2011 nearly doubled, the proportion of HPV+ cases remained static at approximately 50%. Our results argue that the rapidly increasing incidence of OPSCC in the United Kingdom cannot be solely attributable to the influence of HPV. The parallel increase in HPV+ and HPV- cases we documented warrants further investigation, so that appropriate future prevention strategies for both types of disease can be implemented. Cancer Res; 76(22); 6598-606. ©2016 AACR.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrew G Schache
- Department of Molecular & Clinical Cancer Medicine, Northwest Cancer Research Centre, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom
- Head & Neck Unit, University Hospital Aintree, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | - Ned G Powell
- Institute of Cancer and Genetics, Cardiff University School of Medicine, Cardiff, United Kingdom
| | - Kate S Cuschieri
- Scottish Human Papillomavirus Reference Laboratory, Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland, United Kingdom
| | - Max Robinson
- Centre for Oral Health Research, Newcastle University, Newcastle, United Kingdom
| | - Sam Leary
- Biomedical Research Unit in Nutrition, Diet and Lifestyle, School of Oral and Dental Sciences, University Hospitals Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
| | - Hisham Mehanna
- Institute of Head and Neck Studies and Education (InHANSE), College of Medical and Dental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom
| | - Davy Rapozo
- Brazilian National Cancer Institute, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Anna Long
- Cellular Pathology, Newcastle-upon-Tyne Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Newcastle, United Kingdom
| | - Heather Cubie
- Scottish Human Papillomavirus Reference Laboratory, Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland, United Kingdom
| | - Elizabeth Junor
- Edinburgh Cancer Research Centre, Institute of Genetics and Molecular Medicine, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland, United Kingdom
| | - Hannah Monaghan
- Pathology Department, Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland, United Kingdom
| | - Kevin J Harrington
- NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, The Institute of Cancer Research, London, United Kingdom
- Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, London, United Kingdom
| | | | - Ulrike Schick
- NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, The Institute of Cancer Research, London, United Kingdom
- Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, London, United Kingdom
| | - Andy S Lau
- Department of Molecular & Clinical Cancer Medicine, Northwest Cancer Research Centre, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom
- Head & Neck Unit, University Hospital Aintree, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | - Navdeep Upile
- Department of Molecular & Clinical Cancer Medicine, Northwest Cancer Research Centre, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom
- Head & Neck Unit, University Hospital Aintree, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | - Jon Sheard
- Pathology Department, Aintree University Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | - Kath Brougham
- Pathology Department, Aintree University Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | - Catharine M L West
- Institute of Cancer Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom
| | - Ken Oguejiofor
- Institute of Cancer Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom
| | - Steve Thomas
- School of Oral & Dental Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
| | - Andy R Ness
- Biomedical Research Unit in Nutrition, Diet and Lifestyle, School of Oral and Dental Sciences, University Hospitals Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
| | - Miranda Pring
- School of Oral & Dental Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
| | - Gareth J Thomas
- Cancer Sciences Unit, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom
| | - Emma V King
- Poole Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Poole, United Kingdom
| | - Dennis J McCance
- Department of Pathology, School of Medicine, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, New Mexico
| | - Jacqueline A James
- Northern Ireland Molecular Pathology Laboratory, Centre for Cancer Research and Cell Biology, Belfast, Northern Ireland
| | | | - Phil Sloan
- Centre for Oral Health Research, Newcastle University, Newcastle, United Kingdom
| | - Richard J Shaw
- Department of Molecular & Clinical Cancer Medicine, Northwest Cancer Research Centre, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom
- Head & Neck Unit, University Hospital Aintree, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | | | - Terry M Jones
- Department of Molecular & Clinical Cancer Medicine, Northwest Cancer Research Centre, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom.
- Head & Neck Unit, University Hospital Aintree, Liverpool, United Kingdom
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