On the ethical aspects of the testimony of statisticians in court

This article considers a legal case presented by the Gore campaign to the Florida Eleventh Circuit Court in December 2000 to contest the election results giving the 25 electoral votes from the State of Florida to George W Bush--basically awarding the presidency to Bush. Consideration is given to the ethical aspects of the testimony of two statisticians, one for Gore and one for Bush, who testified about whether the certified election results rejected a number of legal votes and included a number of illegal votes sufficient to place in doubt the results of the election. It is concluded that neither statistician violated accepted ethical standards of the statistical profession, though the Bush statistician's testimony was at least borderline unethical on certain points. The main problem seems to be with the advocacy principle of the American legal system that leads to the prosecution witnesses testifying narrowly to the truths about the case, whereas the defense witnesses do the same from their viewpoint and also try to belittle the testimony of the prosecution witnesses. All of this makes it difficult to uncover the real truths in the case. The judge's decision was to reject Gore's case and this helped to clear the path to the election of Bush as President of the United States.

The role of the biostatistician in cancer research

This article considers triumphs and challenges for biostatisticians working in oncology at the beginning of the 21st century. The impact of three major articles in biostatistics in the 20th century is considered: Cornfield's 1951 paper on estimating comparative rates from clinical data; Mantel and Haenszel's 1959 paper on obtaining summary measures of relative risk, adjusting for stratification factors in epidemiological studies; and D. R. Cox's 1972 paper, which developed the proportional hazards model for evaluating the effect of covariates on survival time outcomes. Biostatistical challenges for the 21st century are considered for the areas of clinical trials, survival analysis, and statistical genetics.

Biostatistics in the new millennium: a consulting statistician's perspective

This article attempts to predict the future for biostatistics and biostatisticians in the twenty-first century. Life will certainly be more complex and there will be growth in population, large corporations, and globalization generally. However, there will continue to be problems relating to biology, medicine, health and the environment, so biostatisticians can surely play an important role, if they are willing to adapt to changing circumstances. Personal views are expressed concerning those areas of most recent development that seem likely to be continued in the coming years: applications (clinical trials, epidemiology, vital statistics), philosophies, models, advances in computing, and the profession of biostatistics.

A modification of Simon's optimal design for phase II trials when the criterion is median sample size

We present a modification to Simon's optimal design for phase II trials in which the objective is to minimize the median sample size rather than the expected sample size when the true response rate is poor (p = p0). We argue that the modified design may be preferred in smaller institutions when the focus is on a single or small number of phase II trials rather than a large program of phase II trials.

Late complications of therapy in 213 children with localized, nonorbital soft-tissue sarcoma of the head and neck: A descriptive report from the Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Studies (IRS)-II and - III. IRS Group of the Children's Cancer Group and the Pediatric Oncology Group

BACKGROUND

This review of children and adolescents with nonorbital soft-tissue sarcoma of the head and neck was undertaken to describe late sequelae of treatment, as manifested primarily by problems with statural growth, facial and nuchal symmetry, dentition, vision and hearing, and school performance.

PROCEDURE

Four hundred sixty-nine patients entered the IRS-II and -III protocols with localized, nonorbital soft-tissue sarcomas of the head and neck from 1978 through 1987. Their overall survival rate was 53% (250/469) at 5 years. Two hundred thirteen patients were surviving relapse-free 5 or more years after diagnosis, for whom there were serial height measurements at 2 or more years after initiation of therapy. Their median age at diagnosis was 5 years; the median length of follow-up was 7 years. All received multiple-agent chemotherapy, and all but 3 received irradiation to the primary tumor volume. Sixty-eight percent of the tumors arose in cranial parameningeal sites, 22% in nonparameningeal sites, and 10% in the neck. We reviewed flow sheets submitted to the IRS Group Statistical Office to ascertain which late sequelae were recorded.

RESULTS

One hundred sixty-four patients (77%) had one or more problems recorded. One hundred ninety of the two hundred thirteen patients (89%) were under 15 years of age at study entry, and at follow-up 92 (48%) had failed to maintain their initial height velocity, which had decreased by more than 25 percentile points from the original value. Thirty-six of the one hundred ninety patients (19%) were receiving growth hormone injections. Hypoplasia or asymmetry of tissues in the primary tumor site was reported in 74 patients, and 13 underwent reconstructive surgery. Poor dentition or malformed teeth were noted in 61 patients. Impaired vision developed in 37 patients, owing primarily to cataracts, corneal changes, and optic atrophy. Thirty-six patients had decreased hearing acuity, and 9 were fitted with hearing aids; 5 of these 9 had received cisplatin. Thirty-five patients were noted to have problems learning in school. Four patients developed a second malignancy (two sarcomas, one carcinoma, one leukemia).

CONCLUSIONS

Late sequelae affected the majority of these patients treated for soft-tissue sarcoma of the head and neck on IRS-II and -III. The potential impact of certain sequelae could be reduced by specific measures, such as surgical reconstruction and hormonal therapy. Late sequelae must be taken into account in designing future curative treatments.

Early history of pathology studies by the Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Study Group

This review chronicles the series of publications that were the result of the willingness of pathologists and clinicians in the United States to share their pathologic materials and clinical data on patients who were placed on treatment protocols for rhabdomyosarcoma and related tumors over an extended period of time. The availability of this database enabled pathologists and clinicians to study a tumor type that is rare in individual institutions, but occurs in large enough numbers to produce valid conclusions not otherwise possible. Furthermore, young investigators were challenged by this opportunity and were able to spend the necessary time to make new observations that, in retrospect, helped direct protocol designs that produced significant improvement in patient survival. The key factor in this process is the surrender of individual scientific prerogatives to a small number of investigators. It is also important to recognize that the pathologist component of these series of contributions is only a part of the entire effort. It takes an organization of gifted, dedicated experts in many disciplines working together. The investigators who served on the Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Group over a 25-year period eminently fulfilled this.

Immunotherapy with interleukin-2 and alpha-interferon after IL-2-activated hematopoietic stem cell transplantation for breast cancer

We previously demonstrated findings suggestive of autologous GVHD in patients receiving IL-2-activated peripheral blood stem cells (PBSC) with IL-2 after transplantation. A pilot study was designed to test tolerability, feasibility and frequency of autologous GVHD and engraftment using IL-2 and alpha-IFN post-transplantation. After cyclophosphamide (6 g/m2) and carboplatin (1800 mg/m2), patients with high-risk stage II or III breast cancer received chemotherapy and rhG-CSF mobilized autologous PBSC that had been cultured in IL-2 for 24 h. Subcutaneous administration of IL-2 began on day 0 at 6 x 10(5) IU/m2/day for 5 of 7 days each week and continued for 4 weeks. Once engraftment occurred, alpha-IFN was initiated at a dose of 1 x 10(6)/m2/day subcutaneously for 30 days. Thirty-four consecutive patients with stage II (n=20), IIIA (n=6) and IIIB (n=8) disease were treated. All patients were without evidence of disease at the time of transplantation. The average time required for the ANC to reach 500/mm3 was 10 days (range: 8-11 days) and for platelets to reach 20000/mm3 was 10.7 days (range: 6-21 days). Forty-seven percent of patients (n=16) completed the full course of immunotherapy; the remaining patients received attenuated doses due to patient's request (n=6), development of temperature >38 degrees C (n=3), development of neutropenia (n=3), serious infection (n=1) and miscellaneous reasons (n=5). Four patients experienced transient moderate toxicities (level 3) including elevated liver function tests, nausea, rash and capillary leak syndrome. Pathological findings suggestive of skin GVHD developed in 43% of patients (12/28 patients) when skin biopsies were evaluated in a blinded fashion. At 13 months post-transplant (median; range: 5-24 months), 28 patients (82%) remain disease-free. These results demonstrate the feasibility and toxicity of this regimen along with pathological findings compatible with autologous GVHD of the skin.

The scientific basis of clinical trials: statistical aspects

The objective of this paper is to delineate some of the advances in clinical oncology that have occurred since the 1950s in the context of methodological principles established by Dr. Emil J Freireich and colleagues. Four statistical aspects of the methodological developments in clinical trials are considered and illustrated by real examples: a quantitative approach to the design and analysis of clinical trials; the randomized controlled trial; the nonrandomized controlled trial; and the use of regression models in clinical studies.

Interleukin-2-activated hematopoietic stem cell transplantation for breast cancer: investigation of dose level with clinical correlates

Incubating hematopoietic stem cells with IL-2 in vitro for 24 h generates cytotoxic T cells. When infused into patients, these cells may stimulate a graft-versus-tumor (GVT) effect. This clinical trial was designed to assess the ability of IL-2 activated peripheral blood stem cells (PBSC) to reconstitute hematopoiesis, to investigate dose levels and dose-limiting toxicities of IL-2, and to evaluate clinical results and preliminary laboratory effects using a combination of IL-2-activated autologous PBSC followed by IL-2 after transplantation. Sixty-one women with stage II-IV breast cancer were treated. After the administration of carboplatin (200 mg/m2/day for 3 days) and cyclophosphamide (2 g/m2/day for 3 days), patients received autologous PBSC that were cultured in IL-2 for 24 h followed by parenteral administration of IL-2 beginning the day of transplantation. Three escalating doses of IL-2 were evaluated with increasing duration up to 4 weeks. Of the 57 patients receiving IL-2 after tranplantation, 19 patients (33.3%) were unable to complete the planned course of IL-2 therapy due to persistent fevers (n = 9), diarrhea (n = 2), pulmonary capillary leak syndrome (n = 3), development of a rash (n = 1), atrial fibrillation (n = 1), or patient's request (n = 3). One death occurred during hospitalization. Engraftment of neutrophils occurred on day 11.5 (mean; range 8-21 days) and platelets on day 11.7 (mean; range 7-33 days). The maximal tolerated dose of IL-2 was 6 x 10(5) IU/m2/day for 4 weeks. Disease-free survival rates for all stages were comparable to current reports in the literature. Preliminary laboratory evaluations include FACScan analysis of the IL-2 activated PBSC demonstrating an increased percentage of CD3+, CD25+, HLA-DR+ T cells. Phenotypically similar cells were present in peripheral blood samples of patients when tested 15 days after transplantation. This study demonstrates successful engraftment with IL-2-activated PBSC after high-dose chemotherapy for women with stage II-IV breast cancer. The regimen is feasible and, although toxicities are common, they are manageable and correlate with increasing dose and duration of IL-2.

Pretreatment TNM staging of childhood rhabdomyosarcoma: a report of the Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Study Group. Children's Cancer Study Group. Pediatric Oncology Group

BACKGROUND

The Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Study Group (IRSG) studies began in 1972 and initially used a clinicopathologic system to place patients into prognostic groups. Because of interest in the development of a pretreatment staging system for assessing the posttreatment outcomes of patients with this disease, potential staging elements were retrospectively evaluated in a subset of 505 patients who participated in IRS-II, an IRSG clinical trial.

METHODS

Using the IRS-II data, a TNM pretreatment staging system was developed and used to stage prospectively the patients who were entering IRS-III, a subsequent treatment protocol of the IRSG. Failure free survival and overall survival were compared by pretreatment stage in IRS-III as a means of evaluating this TNM staging.

RESULTS

The TNM staging system described the tumor (T) in terms of lesion size (< 5 cm or > or = 5 cm) instead of invasiveness, because these two features were not independent of each other. The clinical status of regional lymph nodes (N) was included in the staging system, as was the presence or absence of metastatic disease (M). The latter feature was extremely important, as expected. The anatomic site of the primary tumor also proved to be an important staging element. Classification of patients by tumor size, clinical status of regional lymph nodes, presence or absence of metastatic disease, and location of the primary tumor (at a favorable or unfavorable anatomic site) created four prognostically distinct staging categories that were relatively equal in size. In a prospective evaluation of this staging system with IRS-III patients, the pretreatment staging lost some prognostic impact. The survival of patients with smaller lesions at unfavorable anatomic sites without clinically involved lymph nodes (Stage II) was similar to that of patients with primary tumors at favorable anatomic sites (Stage I).

CONCLUSIONS

A pretreatment TNM staging system for childhood rhabdomyosarcoma, developed with data from IRS-II, was not as predictive of patient outcome when applied prospectively to patients treated in the IRS-III trial. These findings could be due to differences in the management strategy used for IRS-III or the statistical variability in the model-fitting process used to develop the staging system. This demonstrates the need for continual reevaluation of staging systems as patient evaluation and treatment innovations are developed.

Radiation therapy for rhabdomyosarcoma: local failure risk for Clinical Group III patients on Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Study II

PURPOSE

A subset of 362 pediatric patients with rhabdomyosarcoma was selected from a total of 532 eligible IRS-II patients in Clinical Group III to assess the local and regional failure rates following radiotherapy and to determine patient, tumor, and treatment factors contributing to the risk for local and regional failure.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

The study population was selected from all eligible IRS-II Clinical Group III patients. Excluded patients were those with "special pelvic" primary sites whose protocol management restricted radiotherapy (n = 123), and those who were removed from the study before radiotherapy was to begin, or because it was omitted (n = 47). A binary recursive partitioning model was used to identify subgroups of the remaining 362 patients at risk of local or regional failure.

RESULTS

The local (only) failure rate was 17% (95% confidence interval, 13-21%), and the local (all) failure rate was 20% (95% confidence interval, 16-24%). The 5-year actuarial risk of local (all) failure was 22% (95% confidence interval, 18-27%). The risk of regional (nodal) failure was between 2% and 23%. Increasing tumor size predicted an increased local failure risk. Primary tumors located above the clavicle had a reduced risk of local failure. The binary recursive partitioning model identified a subset of patients at high risk of local failure. Those patients had primary tumors in the chest, pelvic region, extremity, or trunk, or tumors > 10 cm in diameter. Their local failure rate was 35% (compared to 15% for the remaining patients). The subset of patients at high risk for regional (nodal) failure had node involvement at diagnosis and a primary tumor originating at a site other than orbit, parameningeal, or trunk. Compliance with radiation treatment guidelines approached but did not achieve statistical significance as a predictive factor for local failure. By univariate analysis, factors not influencing local failure risk were age, race, gender, adenopathy, and histology.

CONCLUSION

Radiation therapy and chemotherapy administered to Clinical Group III patients entered into the IRS-II protocol produced sustained local control in most cases. Knowledge of the factors which predict an increased risk of local or regional failure will facilitate the design of new treatment strategies.

Ewing's sarcoma of soft tissues in childhood: a report from the Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Study, 1972 to 1991

PURPOSE

One hundred thirty of 2,792 patients (5%) registered on three Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Study clinical trials (IRS-I, -II, and -III) from 1972 to 1991 had an extraosseous Ewing's sarcoma (EOE). We report here the results of multimodality therapy for this tumor.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The 130 patients were less than 21 years of age; 70 (54%) were males. Primary tumor sites were on the trunk in 41 patients, an extremity in 34, the head/neck in 23, the retroperitoneum/pelvis in 21, and other sites in 11. One hundred fourteen patients had no metastases at diagnosis. In 21 patients, the tumor was completely resected; in 30, the localized or regional tumor was grossly resected, and in 63 patients, grossly visible sarcoma was left behind. Sixteen patients (12%) had distant metastases at diagnosis. All patients were given multiagent chemotherapy and most received irradiation (XRT); none were treated with bone marrow transplantation.

RESULTS

One hundred seven patients (82%) achieved a complete response. At 10 years, 62%, 61%, and 77% of the patients were alive after treatment on IRS-I, IRS-II, or IRS-III therapeutic protocols, respectively, similar to figures obtained in all IRS patients. At last follow-up evaluation, 42 patients had died of progressive tumor and one of infection. Survival at 10 years was most likely for patients with tumor that arose in the head and neck, extremities, and trunk, and for those who underwent grossly complete tumor removal before initiation of chemotherapy. For patients with localized, gross residual tumor, adding doxorubicin (DOX) to the combination of vincristine, dactinomycin, cyclophosphamide (VAC), and XRT did not significantly improve survival in 39 patients (62% alive at 10 years) compared with that of 24 patients treated with VAC and XRT without DOX (65% alive at 10 years, P = .93).

CONCLUSION

This series indicated that EOE in children is similar to rhabdomyosarcoma (RMS) in its response to multimodal treatment. No benefit was apparent from the addition of DOX to VAC chemotherapy in patients with gross residual EOE.

Classification of rhabdomyosarcomas and related sarcomas. Pathologic aspects and proposal for a new classification--an Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Study

BACKGROUND

There is a need to develop a single prognostically significant classification of rhabdomyosarcomas (RMS) and other related tumors of children, adolescents, and young adults which would be a current guide for their diagnosis, allow valid comparison of outcomes between protocols carried out anywhere in the world, and should enhance recognition of prognostic subsets.

METHOD

Sixteen pathologists from eight pathology groups, representing six countries and several cooperative groups, classified by four histopathologic classification schemes 800 representative tumors of the 999 eligible cases treated on Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Study II. Each tumor was classified according to each of the four systems by each of the pathologists. In addition, two independent subsamples of 200 of the 800 patients were reviewed according to the new system, so that 343 distinct patients were reviewed once, and 57 of these twice.

RESULTS

A study of the survival rates of all subtypes in the sample of 800 patients led to the formation of a new system. This was tested on two independent subsets of 200 of the original cases and found to be reproducible and predictive of outcome by univariate analysis. A multivariate analysis of the 343 patients classified according to the new system indicated that a survival model including pathologic classification and known prognostic factors of primary site, clinical group, and tumor size was significantly better at predicting survival than a model with only the known prognostic factors.

CONCLUSION

This new classification, termed International Classification of Rhabdomyosarcoma (ICR) by the authors, was reproducible and predictive of outcome among patients with differing histologies treated uniformly on the Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma II protocols. We believe it should be utilized by all pathologists and cooperative groups to classify rhabdomyosarcomas in order to provide comparability among and within multi-institutional studies.

Hyperfractionated radiation in children with rhabdomyosarcoma--results of an Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Pilot Study

PURPOSE

The Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Study (IRS) Group initiated a pilot study (IRS IV-P) of hyperfractionated radiation (HF XRT) with chemotherapy to test the feasibility and toxicity of this combined modality approach in children with localized but nonresected (group III) and metastatic (group IV) rhabdomyosarcoma.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

Using the linear quadratic equation, and an alpha/beta ratio of 10 Gy for acute reacting tumor effect and 3 Gy for late reacting normal tissue effect, a HF XRT protocol was developed giving a total radiation dose of 59.4 Gy, in 1.10 Gy fractions, twice daily at 6-8 h intervals. All patients received chemotherapy in addition to irradiation. The radiation scheme was calculated to increase the biologically effective dose to the tumor by 10% without increasing late effects, when compared to a conventional schedule of 50.4 Gy in 1.8 Gy daily fractions. This protocol also was predicted to cause an increase in acute normal tissue effects.

RESULTS

Four hundred forty-nine children age 21 years and younger were eligible for the hyperfractionated radiation study of whom 297 had Group III disease and 152 had Group IV disease. A total of 117 patients were excluded from the feasibility and toxicity analysis because of progressive disease or death prior to scheduled irradiation, surgical resection, major protocol violation, treatment with brachytherapy, or missing data. Thus, 332 children were evaluable for the HF XRT protocol. Twenty-eight of the 332 (8%) were given conventional radiation because of physician preference or young age. Twenty of the 332 (6%) were not irradiated because of young age, anesthesia, or transportation problems. All nonirradiated children were < or = 3 years of age. Thus, 284 children, 86% of the evaluable population, received HF XRT. The radiation dose, number of fractions, number of days, and interfractional interval were scored as appropriate in 93% of cases. Review of radiation portals revealed that in 230 of 284 cases (81%) the radiation fields were appropriate, as per protocol. Thus, the HF XRT was feasible treatment in a multiinstitutional study. Analysis of toxicity revealed that 152 of 204 (75%) of Group III and 52 of 80 (65%) of Group IV patients experienced severe or life-threatening toxicity, explained by the addition of chemotherapy with the radiation. The majority of this toxicity was hematopoietic. Observed organ toxicity, which was potentially explained by the radiation treatment, was greatest at the end of radiation, and improved at the 6-week and 3-month evaluation periods. There were no deaths attributed to radiation toxicity and no instance of toxicity that required alteration of the radiation protocol. Thus, the treatment was not associated with toxicity that was considered excessive or unusual.

CONCLUSION

The IRS IV-P study confirms that HF XRT combined with chemotherapy is both feasible and tolerable in children with rhabdomyosarcoma. A prospective randomized trial is underway to test its efficacy as compared to conventional radiation among children also receiving concurrent chemotherapy for rhabdomyosarcoma.

The Third Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Study

PURPOSE

The ultimate goal of the Third Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Study (IRS-III, 1984 to 1991) was to improve treatment outcome in children with rhabdomyosarcoma through clinical trials comparing risk-based protocols of surgery and multiagent chemotherapy, with or without irradiation.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

One thousand sixty-two previously untreated, eligible patients who were entered onto the study after surgery were randomized or assigned to treatment by clinical group (I through IV), histology (unfavorable or favorable), and site of the primary tumor. Initial responses, progression-free survival (PFS), and survival (S) were the end points used in comparisons between randomized groups and between patients treated in IRS-III and IRS-II (1978 to 1984).

RESULTS

The overall outcome of therapy in IRS-III was significantly better than in IRS-II (5-year PFS, 65% +/- 2% v 55% +/- 2%; P < .001 by stratified testing). Patients with group I favorable-histology tumors fared as well on a 1-year regimen of vincristine and dactinomycin (VA), as did a comparable group treated with VA plus cyclophosphamide (C) (5-year PFS, 83% +/- 3% v 76% +/- 4%; P = .18). Results for patients with group II favorable-histology tumors, excluding orbit, head, and paratesticular sites, were inconclusive regarding the benefit from addition of doxorubicin (ADR) to VA. Patients with group III tumors, excluding those in special pelvic, orbit, and other selected nonparameningeal head sites, fared much better on the more intensive regimens of IRS-III than on pulsed VAC or VAC-VADRC in IRS-II (5-year PFS estimates, 62% +/- 3% v 52% +/- 3%; P < .01); however, there were no significant differences in outcome among the groups treated in IRS-III. Patients with metastatic disease at diagnosis (clinical group IV) did not benefit significantly from the more complex therapies evaluated in IRS-III.

CONCLUSION

Intensification of therapy for most patients in IRS-III, using a risk-based study design, significantly improved treatment outcome overall. The largest gain from this strategy was realized in patients with gross residual tumor after biopsy (clinical group III). It was also possible to decrease therapy for selected patient subsets without compromising survival.

Agreement among and within groups of pathologists in the classification of rhabdomyosarcoma and related childhood sarcomas. Report of an international study of four pathology classifications

BACKGROUND

An International Pathology study was conducted to measure the agreement demonstrated among and within groups of pathologists involved in the categorization of childhood rhabdomyosarcoma according to four pathology classifications. Data concerning agreement and survival experience according to patho-new subtypes were used as a basis for selection of a proposed new pathologic classification.

METHODS

A random sample of 800 eligible patients was chosen from the Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Study II (IRS-II) and was reviewed by pathologists representing eight institutions. A 20% sample of the 800 patients was then reviewed by the pathologists to determine the level of agreement with their original classification. In each instance the patients were classified according to four pathology systems: the conventional system, the International Society for Pediatric Oncology system (SIOP), the National Cancer Institute (NCI) system, and the cytohistologic system.

RESULTS

Among the groups of pathologists, the highest measure of agreement was a Kappa value of K = 0.451 for the conventional system, followed by K = 0.406 for the SIOP system, K = 0.384 for the NCI system, and K = 0.328 for the cytohistologic system. For reproducibility within the groups of pathologists, the highest measure of agreement was K = 0.605 for the conventional system, followed by K = 0.579 for the NCI system, K = 0.573 for the SIOP system, and K = 0.508 for the cytohistologic system.

CONCLUSIONS

There was a general similarity between the agreement reached within the modified conventional, STOP, and NCI systems, with the modified conventional system having the highest Kappa values, and thus the highest measure of agreement, both among and within the groups of pathologists. Also, the subtypes of the conventional system demonstrated a highly significant relationship to survival time. Hence, based on criteria of reproducibilty and prognostic significance, the proposed classification will essentially be a modification of the conventional system with elements of the SIOP and NCI systems.

An optimal three-stage design for phase II clinical trials

A phase II clinical trial in cancer therapeutics is usually a single-arm study to determine whether an experimental treatment (E) holds sufficient promise to warrant further testing. When the criterion of treatment efficacy is a binary endpoint (response/no response) with probability of response p, we propose a three-stage optimal design for testing H0: p < or = p0 versus H1: p > or = p1, where p1 and p0 are response rates such that E does or does not merit further testing at given levels of statistical significance (alpha) and power (1--beta). The proposed design is essentially a combination of earlier proposals by Gehan and Simon. The design stops with rejection of H1 at stage 1 when there is an initial moderately long run of consecutive treatment failures; otherwise there is continuation to stage 2 and (possibly) stage 3 which have decision rules analogous to those in stages 1 and 2 of Simon's design. Thus, rejection of H1 is possible at any stage, but acceptance only at the final stage. The design is optimal in the sense that expected sample size is minimized when p = p0, subject to the practical constraint that the minimum stage 1 sample size is at least 5. The proposed design has greatest utility when the true response rate of E is small, it is desirable to stop early if there is a moderately long run of early treatment failures, and it is practical to implement a three-stage design. Compared to Simon's optimal two-stage design, the optimal three-stage design has the following features: stage 1 is the same size or smaller and has the possibility of stopping earlier when 0 successes are observed; the expected sample size under the null hypothesis is smaller; stages 1 and 2 generally have more patients than stage 1 of the two-stage design, but a higher probability of early termination under H0; and the total sample size and criteria for rejection of H1 at stage 3 are similar to the corresponding values at the end of stage 2 in the two-stage optimal design.

The Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Study-II

BACKGROUND

Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Study (IRS)-II, (1978-1984) had the general goals of improving the survival and treatment of children with rhabdomyosarcoma (RMS).

METHODS

Nine hundred ninety-nine previously untreated eligible patients entered the study after surgery and were randomized or assigned to therapy by IRS Clinical Group (I-IV), tumor site, and histologic type. Outcomes were compared between treatments and with results of IRS-I (1972-1978).

RESULTS

Patients in Group I, excluding extremity alveolar (EA) RMS, were randomized to standard vincristine (V), dactinomycin (A), and cyclophosphamide (C) or standard VA. At 5 years, disease-free survival (DFS) and survival (S) rates were similar between VAC and VA (DFS: 80%, 70%, P = 0.47; S: 85%, 84%, P = 0.73). Patients in Group II, excluding EA RMS, received radiation and were randomized to intensive VA or repetitive-pulse VAC. Outcomes were similar for rates of DFS (69%, 74%, P = 0.83) and S (88%, 79%, P = 0.17). Patients in Group III, excluding certain pelvic tumors, received radiation and were randomized to repetitive-pulse VAC or repetitive-pulse VAdrC-VAC (Adr, Adriamycin [doxorubicin]). Complete remission (CR) rates were close at 74%, 78%, respectively (P = 0.32), as were percentages in CR (73%) and S (66%) rates; the latter outcomes were significantly better than IRS-I (CR: 56%, P < 0.001; S: 50%, P < 0.001). Central nervous system prophylaxis for Group III patients with cranial parameningeal sarcoma increased S rate to 67% from 45% in IRS-I (P < 0.001). Patients in Group IV received the same regimens as Group III; the CR rate was 53%, 38% remained in CR and S rate was 27% with and 26% without Adr (P = 0.90). At 5 years, S rate for IRS-II, including EA and all pelvic tumors, was 63%: an 8% increase over IRS-I (P < 0.001). Outcomes by primary site were as good as, or better than, the IRS-I experience.

CONCLUSIONS

Combining all Groups and treatments in IRS-II, the major improvement in S rate at 5 years between studies was in nonmetastatic patients (71% for IRS-II versus 63% for IRS-I, P = 0.01).

The Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Study-II

BACKGROUND

Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Study (IRS)-II, (1978-1984) had the general goals of improving the survival and treatment of children with rhabdomyosarcoma (RMS).

METHODS

Nine hundred ninety-nine previously untreated eligible patients entered the study after surgery and were randomized or assigned to therapy by IRS Clinical Group (I-IV), tumor site, and histologic type. Outcomes were compared between treatments and with results of IRS-I (1972-1978).

RESULTS

Patients in Group I, excluding extremity alveolar (EA) RMS, were randomized to standard vincristine (V), dactinomycin (A), and cyclophosphamide (C) or standard VA. At 5 years, disease-free survival (DFS) and survival (S) rates were similar between VAC and VA (DFS: 80%, 70%, P = 0.47; S: 85%, 84%, P = 0.73). Patients in Group II, excluding EA RMS, received radiation and were randomized to intensive VA or repetitive-pulse VAC. Outcomes were similar for rates of DFS (69%, 74%, P = 0.83) and S (88%, 79%, P = 0.17). Patients in Group III, excluding certain pelvic tumors, received radiation and were randomized to repetitive-pulse VAC or repetitive-pulse VAdrC-VAC (Adr, Adriamycin [doxorubicin]). Complete remission (CR) rates were close at 74%, 78%, respectively (P = 0.32), as were percentages in CR (73%) and S (66%) rates; the latter outcomes were significantly better than IRS-I (CR: 56%, P < 0.001; S: 50%, P < 0.001). Central nervous system prophylaxis for Group III patients with cranial parameningeal sarcoma increased S rate to 67% from 45% in IRS-I (P < 0.001). Patients in Group IV received the same regimens as Group III; the CR rate was 53%, 38% remained in CR and S rate was 27% with and 26% without Adr (P = 0.90). At 5 years, S rate for IRS-II, including EA and all pelvic tumors, was 63%: an 8% increase over IRS-I (P < 0.001). Outcomes by primary site were as good as, or better than, the IRS-I experience.

CONCLUSIONS

Combining all Groups and treatments in IRS-II, the major improvement in S rate at 5 years between studies was in nonmetastatic patients (71% for IRS-II versus 63% for IRS-I, P = 0.01).

Plain radiographic predictors of survival in treated Ewing's sarcoma. IESS Committee

We analyzed 16 radiographic features of primary Ewing's sarcoma in 342 patients from the IESS 7299 (Intergroup Ewing's Sarcoma Study) for prognostic significance. Of these, 3 features demonstrated a statistically significant relationship to survival: maximal tumor dimension, tumor location, and an appearance of honey-combing within the lesion. Those individuals with primary lesions centered in the pelvis, femur, or humerus had a worse survival rate than those with lesions centered elsewhere. Similarly, we observed an inverse relationship between the greatest dimension of the osseous portion of the lesion and survival. The radiographic finding of honeycombing also showed a statistical association with improved survival. However, this feature was observed infrequently, and its significance should be assessed further. Otherwise, no other feature that we analyzed showed any relationship to patient prognosis.

Multimodal therapy for the management of localized Ewing's sarcoma of pelvic and sacral bones: a report from the second intergroup study

A total of 59 eligible patients with localized Ewing's sarcoma of the pelvic and sacral bones were entered into a multimodal Intergroup Ewing's Sarcoma Study (IESS-II) (1978 to 1982) and compared with a historical control series of 68 patients entered into an earlier multimodal Intergroup Ewing's Sarcoma Study (IESS-I) (1973 to 1978). High-dose intermittent multiagent chemotherapy (vincristine, cyclophosphamide, Adriamycin [doxorubicin; Adria Laboratories, Columbus, OH], and dactinomycin) was given to all patients for 6 weeks before and for 70 weeks following local therapy. All patients who had a tumor biopsy or incomplete resection performed received a dose of 55 Gy to the tumor bed. With a median follow-up time of 5.5 years, two of 59 patients (3%) had a local recurrence, five patients (8%) had a local recurrence and metastases, and 17 patients (29%) developed metastases only. There was significant statistical evidence of an advantage in relapse-free survival (RFS) and survival (S) for patients on IESS-II versus IESS-I, P = .006 and P = .002, respectively. At 5 years, the comparison between IESS-II versus IESS-I was 55% versus 23% for RFS and 63% versus 35% for S.

Rhabdoid tumors of soft tissues: a clinicopathologic study of 26 cases enrolled on the Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Study

Twenty-six cases of malignant soft tissue tumors with features similar to renal rhabdoid tumors were identified among approximately 3,000 childhood sarcomas entered on Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Studies I-III. The tumors consisted of polygonal cells with vesicular nuclei and prominent nucleoli and cytoplasmic intermediate filament inclusions as identified by electron microscopy and immunohistochemistry. The growth pattern was predominantly solid or solid-trabecular. Immunohistochemistry showed vimentin, wide spectrum keratin, and epithelial membrane antigen to be the most consistent antigenic phenotypes. Eleven patients were infants less than 1 year of age. The tumors affected predominantly soft tissues of proximal extremities, trunk, and retroperitoneum/pelvis/abdomen. Nineteen patients died within 1 to 82 months (median, 6 months) from the start of treatment. Five patients have survived the disease for 2 to 13 years. When compared with the survival analysis of 991 Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Study II patients, it was obvious that this group of tumors fares very poorly (P less than .001). The tumor belongs to the group of soft tissue neoplasms showing mesenchymal and subtle epithelial differentiation, similar to epithelioid sarcoma. Because of its identifiable histology, site and age distribution, and poor outcome, it warrants a status as an independent entity.

Clinical features and results of therapy for children with paraspinal soft tissue sarcoma: a report of the Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Study

Soft tissue sarcomas of the paraspinal region comprised 3.3% (56 of 1,688) of the patients entered and eligible on Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Studies I (IRS-I) and II (IRS-II) (1972 to 1984). These lesions tended to be greater than 5 cm in diameter at diagnosis, invaded the spinal extradural space, and were of the extraosseous Ewing's sarcoma or undifferentiated sarcoma subtype in 55% (30 of 56) of the cases. Patients with tumors in clinical groups II, III, and IV were treated with radiotherapy (XRT) and vincristine-dactinomycin (VA) or VA plus cyclophosphamide (VAC) +/- doxorubicin. Clinical group I patients treated on IRS-II did not receive XRT, while those on IRS-I were randomized to receive VAC +/- XRT. Forty-four of the paraspinal patients (79%) achieved a complete response (CR) compared with 77% (1,260 of 1,632) for patients with disease in other sites. Twenty-seven patients (55%) subsequently relapsed (five local, three regional, four local and distant, and 14 distant). The proportion of patients surviving 5 years by clinical group (stage) from I to IV were 50%, 50%, 62%, and 27%, respectively. Paraspinal patients had somewhat poorer survival than patients with disease in other sites, both in IRS-I and IRS-II; the percentage of paraspinal patients surviving 5 years was 50% and 52% for IRS-I and IRS-II, respectively, whereas these percentages were 55% and 63% for patients with disease in other sites. Histology did not influence the CR rate, but unexpectedly, patients who had embryonal rhabdomyosarcoma (RMS) had the poorest overall survival rate. We concluded that patients with paraspinal lesions may require extended-field radiation therapy to reduce the high local failure rate and more intensive chemotherapy to achieve better local and systemic tumor control.

Prognostic factors in 951 nonmetastatic rhabdomyosarcoma in children: a report from the International Rhabdomyosarcoma Workshop

A total of 951 newly diagnosed patients with nonmetastatic rhabdomyosarcoma (RMS) under 21 years of age from four different cooperative study groups were analyzed to identify the most important pretreatment tumor characteristics in predicting survival. The patient characteristics considered were tumor invasiveness (T), tumor size, status of locoregional lymph nodes, and primary site. The cooperative groups and studies analyzed were: SIOP [RMS-75 (1975-1984)], the Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Study [IRS-II (1978-1982)], Federal Republic of Germany [CWS-81 (1981-1986)] and Italy [RMS-79 (1979-1986), each study involving a different therapeutic protocol. Patient characteristics identified as having a significant relationship to survival by univariate analysis were (favorable features given in brackets): tumor invasiveness [T1], tumor size [less than or equal to 5 cm], status of locoregional lymph nodes [clinically negative], and primary site [orbit and genitourinary non-bladder prostate (GU-non-BP) sites]. T2 tumors tended to have large size (greater than 5 cm), to be associated with positive nodes, and to have a different distribution by primary site than T1 tumors. A multivariate Cox regression analysis of the pooled data identified tumor invasiveness (T), primary site, and the interaction between T and primary site as significant predictive factors for survival. The prognosis of orbital tumors was consistently favorable regardless of T status, whereas the prognosis for "other sites" was consistently unfavorable. International cooperation in this study has permitted the identification of good and poor risk patient subgroups, permitting the focusing of therapeutic protocols to particular risk groups and setting the stage for common future therapeutic protocols for rare subgroups of patients.

Primary chemotherapy with or without radiation therapy and/or surgery for children with localized sarcoma of the bladder, prostate, vagina, uterus, and cervix. A comparison of the results in Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Studies I and II

A major objective of the second Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Study (IRS-II) (1978 to 1984) was to preserve the bladder without compromising the survival of children with localized genitourinary sarcomas arising in or near the bladder. After incisional biopsy, 109 patients with localized, gross residual sarcoma of the prostate (43 patients), bladder (43 patients), vagina (20 patients), or cervix/uterine corpus (3 patients) were treated with vincristine, dactinomycin, and cyclophosphamide (VAC). After two to four drug courses, radiation therapy and/or surgery were used to treat patients with residual or recurrent tumor. The 3-year survival rate of patients treated on this primary chemotherapy regimen (70%) was similar to that of the primary surgery regimens of IRS-I (78%; P = 0.46), but the 3-year disease-free survival rate was significantly inferior (52% versus 70%; P = 0.02). Since the IRS-II encouraged bladder preservation at the onset of therapy, the percentage of patients with bladder and prostate tumors who retained the bladder was initially substantially higher in IRS-II (97%) than in IRS-I (58%). However, the percentages of 95 patients with bladder-prostate (BP) tumors in IRS-II who retained the bladder and were alive at 2 and 3 years after starting treatment were only 33% and 22%, respectively, compared with 26% and 23%, respectively, in the 66 patients with BP tumors in IRS-I. Thus, sequential treatment with primary chemotherapy, followed by radiation therapy and/or surgery as given in IRS-II, failed to improve the eventual bladder salvage rate.

Multimodal therapy for the management of primary, nonmetastatic Ewing's sarcoma of bone: a long-term follow-up of the First Intergroup study

A total of 342 previously untreated eligible children were entered into the first Intergroup Ewing's Sarcoma Study (IESS) between May 1973 and November 1978. In group I institutions, patients were randomized between treatment 1 (radiotherapy to primary lesion plus cyclophosphamide, vincristine, dactinomycin, and Adriamycin [doxorubicin; Adria Laboratories, Columbus, OH] [VAC plus ADR]) or treatment 2 (same as treatment 1 without ADR), and group II institutions randomized patients between treatment 2 or treatment 3 (same as treatment 2 plus bilateral pulmonary radiotherapy [VAC plus BPR]). The percentages of patients relapse-free and surviving (RFS) at 5 years for treatments 1, 2, and 3 were 60%, 24%, and 44%, respectively. There was strong statistical evidence of a significant advantage in RFS for treatment 1 (VAC plus ADR) versus 2 (VAC alone) (P less than .001) and 3 (P less than .05) and also of treatment 3 versus 2 (P less than .001). Similar significant results were observed with respect to overall survival. Patients with disease at pelvic sites have significantly poorer survival at 5 years than those with disease at nonpelvic sites (34% v 57%; P less than .001). Among pelvic cases, there was no evidence of differing survival by treatment (P = .81), but among nonpelvic cases, there was strong evidence of differing survival by treatment (P less than .001). The overall percentage of patients developing metastatic disease was 44%; the percentages by treatments 1, 2, and 3 were 30%, 72%, and 42%, respectively. The overall incidence of local recurrence was 15%, and there was no evidence that local recurrence rate differed by treatment. Patient characteristics related to prognosis, both with respect to RFS and overall survival experience, were primary site (nonpelvic patients were most favorable) and patient age (younger patients were more favorable).

Ewing's sarcoma metastatic at diagnosis. Results and comparisons of two intergroup Ewing's sarcoma studies

Two Pediatric Intergroup Ewing's Sarcoma studies of patients with metastatic disease (IESS-MD) have used multimodal therapy consisting of intensive combination chemotherapy and radiation therapy (XRT) to areas of gross disease detected at the time of diagnosis. In IESS-MD-I, conducted from 1975 to 1977, 53 eligible patients were entered and received the chemotherapeutic agents vincristine, Adriamycin (doxorubicin; Adria Laboratories, Columbus, OH), cyclophosphamide, and dactinomycin with concomitant XRT (VACA + XRT). In IESS-MD-II, conducted from 1980 to 1983, 69 eligible patients were entered and received 5-fluorouracil (5FU) in addition to the chemotherapeutic agents of IESS-MD-I; initial intensive chemotherapy was given and XRT was delayed until week 10 (VACA + 5FU, delayed XRT). The best response rate (complete and partial remissions combined) was 73% in IESS-MD-I and 70% in IESS-MD-II, so there was no statistical evidence of a difference in response rates (P = 0.62). The length of best response also was similar between studies (P = 0.79), with approximately 30% of the patients on both studies remaining in remission at 3 years. The percentage of patients surviving 5 years or more was 30 on the first study and 28 on the second study (P = 0.49). The major sites of relapse after a response were lung and bone, each occurring with nearly equal frequency. The age of the patient was related to both best response rate and survival: patients 10 years of age or younger had substantially higher response and survival rates than patients 11 years of age or older. The favorable prognosis for younger patients might be explained by a more favorable distribution of primary sites at diagnosis; 39% of patients 10 years of age or younger had rib primary sites, compared with only 16% for patients older than 10 years of age (P = 0.05). The frequency of life-threatening toxicity was substantially higher in IESS-MD-I (30%) than in IESS-MD-II (9%), but the frequency of fatal toxicity was similar (6% to 7%). Fatal complications included Adriamycin-induced cardiomyopathy, Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia, unspecified pneumonitis, and sepsis. The most common toxicity and complications were leukopenia and infections.

Multimodal therapy for the management of nonpelvic, localized Ewing's sarcoma of bone: intergroup study IESS-II

Two hundred fourteen eligible patients with previously untreated, localized Ewing's sarcoma of bone were randomized on IESS-II to receive Adriamycin (ADR; doxorubicin; Adria Laboratories, Columbus, OH), cyclophosphamide, vincristine, and dactinomycin by either a high-dose intermittent method (treatment [trt] 1) or a moderate-dose continuous method (trt 2) similar to the four-drug arm of IESS-I. Patient characteristics (sex, primary site, type of surgery) were stratified at the time of registration; these and other patient characteristics (age, time from symptoms to diagnosis, race) were distributed similarly between treatments. Surgical resection was encouraged, but not mandatory. Local radiation therapy was the same as for IESS-I. The median follow-up time is 5.6 years. The overall outcome was significantly better on trt 1 than on trt 2. At 5 years, the estimated percentages of patients who were disease-free, relapse-free, and surviving were 68%, 73%, and 77% for trt 1 and 48%, 56%, and 63% for trt 2 (P = .02, .03, and .05, respectively). The major reason for treatment failure for both treatment groups was the development of metastatic disease. The lung was the most common site of metastases followed by bone sites. The combined incidence of severe or worse toxicity (67%) was comparable between the treatments; however, severe or worse cardiovascular toxicity was significantly greater on trt 1. Tne only treatment-associated deaths (N = 3) were on trt 1 and were cardiac-related.

Historical and methodological developments in clinical trials at the National Cancer Institute

The first randomized clinical trial at the National Cancer Institute (NCI), planned in 1954, commenced in 1955 for the treatment of patients with acute leukaemia. The programme in clinical trials at NCI had strong influence from the clinician and administrator, C. Gordon Zubrod, who introduced the randomized clinical trial at NCI and organized the co-operative clinical trials programme of the Cancer Chemotherapy National Service Center (CCNSC) beginning about 1955. The biostatistician, Marvin Schneiderman, collaborated on the first randomized trials in acute leukaemia and solid tumours and recruited the biostatisticians and statistical centres in the early phase of the co-operative clinical trials programme of the CCNSC. From the beginning, there was acceptance of the principles of the randomization of patients and the statistical analysis of data. The sequence of clinical trials for a new agent included the non-randomized phase I (dosage finding) and phase II (preliminary efficacy) trials as well as the phase III (comparison of treatments) trials. New concepts for the treatment of patients developed from 1955 to the mid-1960s included the combination of therapies with independent activity to increase response rates and the administration of therapy to patients in a disease-free (remission) state to prolong the disease-free state. Methodological developments related to clinical trials up to the mid-1960s included: a plan for phase II trials (Gehan); a generalization of the Wilcoxon test for the comparison of survival distributions with right-censored data (Gehan); a test of proportional hazards for survival distributions, which later became known as the Mantel-Haenszel test (Mantel), and an exponential regression model with an explanatory variable (Feigl and Zelen).

Treatment of lower torso stages I and II Hodgkin's disease with radiation with or without adjuvant mechlorethamine, vincristine, procarbazine, and prednisone

From 1956 to 1987, 60 patients with either lymphangiogram-staged or laparotomy-staged I-II lower torso presentations of Hodgkin's disease were treated with radiation with or without Mustargen (mechlorethamine), vincristine, procarbazine, and prednisone (MOPP). In 22 with inguinal/femoral or pelvic disease and 24 with abdominal disease, treatment consisted of radiation only. Fourteen other patients with abdominal disease received MOPP chemotherapy before radiotherapy. In 11, the chemotherapy was limited to two cycles. At 10 years, the determinate survival and freedom from progression rates for all patients were 82% and 72%, respectively. For patients with inguinal/femoral or pelvic disease who were treated with radiation only, the corresponding rates were 90% and 86%. For patients with abdominal disease who received radiation only, the determinate survival and the freedom from progression rates were only 66% and 50%, respectively. However, corresponding results for 14 patients with abdominal disease who were treated with MOPP and radiation were 100% and 92% (P = 0.033 and P = 0.009, respectively.

The intergroup Hodgkin's disease in children. A study of stages I and II

A total of 228 previously untreated and eligible children with pathologic Stage I or II Hodgkin's disease were registered in the Intergroup Study of Hodgkin's Disease in Children between February 1977 and April 1981. Patients were randomized in the Southwest Oncology Group (later the Pediatric Oncology Group [POG] to involved-field (IF) radiotherapy alone or IF radiotherapy followed by six courses of mechlorethamine, vincristine, prednisone, and procarbazine (MOPP) chemotherapy; patients in the Children's Cancer Study Group (CCSG) and Cancer and Leukemia Group B (CALGB) were randomized to receive extended-field (EF) radiotherapy or IF radiotherapy followed by six courses of MOPP. An estimated 97% of patients receiving IF + MOPP were relapse-free and surviving (RFS) at 5 years, which was significantly better than 41% for patients receiving IF alone; however there was essentially no overall difference in survival experience between groups. Patients in CCSG and CALGB receiving IF + MOPP had significantly superior RFS at 5 years than patients receiving EF. Survival rate was not different between these two groups, an estimated 93% of patients surviving 5 years or longer. Although patients were not randomized between IF or EF radiotherapy, they were similar with respect to patient characteristics. There was some statistical evidence that RFS was superior at 5 years for patients receiving EF than for IF; however, there was no evidence of a difference in survival experience. The percentages of patients with late effects of therapy were not significantly different by treatment. The most common types of late effects were endocrine dysfunction and impaired resistance to infection. Overall, the response rate to therapy for relapse patients was good, being 83% among all patients who relapsed. Patient characteristics related to poor prognosis were the presence of constitutional (B) symptoms (fever, night sweats, and weight loss) and poor performance status.

Prediction of survival during induction therapy in patients with newly diagnosed acute myeloblastic leukemia

Among 569 patients with newly diagnosed AML, 16% died in the 4 weeks following initiation of remission induction therapy. Eight pretreatment characteristics were found to be independently associated with 4-week survival: performance status, bilirubin, age, neutrophil count, fibrinogen, albumin, hemoglobin, and creatinine. A model incorporating these characteristics prospectively stratified a separate group of 198 patients into two comparably sized groups differing substantially in both 4-week survival rates (71% (95% confidence limits, 61-80%) vs. 91% (95% confidence limits, 83-96%] and in survival rates throughout remission induction. Characteristics associated with failure to survive 4 weeks were unassociated with resistance to therapy. This suggests that patients who fail to survive induction are qualitatively different than patients who survive induction but exhibit resistance to treatment. Different therapeutic strategies might be appropriate in the two groups. The model presented here can be used to identify patients at increased risk of death during remission induction.

Disease patterns and survival rate in children with metastatic soft-tissue sarcoma. A report from the Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Study (IRS)-I

The patterns of disease extent, response to treatment, and survival rates were examined in 129 children registered as metastatic (Group IV) soft-tissue sarcoma patients on the Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Study (IRS)-I protocol from November 1972 through October 1978. The patients' ages at diagnosis ranged from 3 months to 21 years (median, 10.5 years); 72 were male patients and 57 were female patients (male-to-female ratio, 1.3:1). The tumor arose in an extremity in 34 patients, the head and neck (exclusive of the orbit) in 27, the genitourinary tract in 25, the retroperitoneum or pelvis in 14, the trunk in 12, the intrathoracic region in nine, the hepatobiliary system in four, the perineum in two, and the orbit in two patients. The histologic types of soft-tissue sarcoma confirmed by the pathology review committee were embryonal rhabdomyosarcoma in 68 patients, alveolar rhabdomyosarcoma in 41, undifferentiated sarcoma in 14, embryonal-botryoid in two, pleomorphic in one patient, and other sarcoma in three patients. Of 105 patients who were confirmed in Group IV and had complete information concerning sites of metastatic deposits, 53 patients presented with metastases restricted to only one anatomic region or tissue; the other 52 had diffuse metastases. The most common sites of distant tumor deposits were the lungs, bone marrow, and other soft tissues. After treatment with vincristine, dactinomycin, and cyclophosphamide with or without Adriamycin (Adria Laboratories, Inc., Columbus, OH) and radiation therapy, 65 (50%) of the 129 eligible patients achieved complete disappearance of all detectable tumor. The likelihood of achieving and maintaining a complete response for 2 years was highest among patients whose tumors originated in the genitourinary tract, retroperitoneum-pelvis, or the hepatobiliary or perineum regions. Thirteen of these 45 children (29%) are alive and disease-free at a minimum of 2 years after initiation of treatment. Only 10 of the other 84 (8%) are surviving disease-free at 2 years (P = 0.02). The presence of restricted rather than diffuse metastases at diagnosis (P = 0.02) was the only other characteristic significantly related to long-term complete remissions. One hundred and two patients (79%) died at a median of 47 weeks after diagnosis, 92 from sarcoma and ten from other causes.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)

Cytogenetic pattern in acute myelogenous leukemia: a major reproducible determinant of outcome

An analysis was conducted of clinical and laboratory variables associated with response to remission induction therapy and remission duration in 440 patients with acute myelogenous leukemia treated between 1975 and 1983. The complete remission rate was 259/440 (59%). Specific cytogenetic abnormalities such as t(8;21), t(15;17), and inv16 were found to be favorable for response to therapy and/or remission duration, whereas those with a normal (diploid) karyotype had an intermediate prognosis. All other karyotypic abnormalities were associated with lower response rates and short complete remission durations. The karyotypes were classified as favorable, intermediate, and unfavorable groups for response and remission duration after allowing for all the other observed clinical and laboratory values related to prognosis. The cytogenetic classification was prospectively validated in an independent test group of 130 patients treated between 1983 and 1986 and showed a consistent relationship to response and remission duration. Logistic regression and proportional hazard models developed from the initial 440 patients were prospectively evaluated in the test group of 130 patients. Clear stratifications of patients into good, intermediate, and poor risk groups were obtained in the prospective tests. The karyotype of the leukemia cells is an independent prognostic variable for response and remission duration in acute myelogenous leukemia.

The Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Study-I. A final report

The results of treatment of 686, previously untreated patients younger than 21 years with rhabdomyosarcoma or undifferentiated sarcoma, who were entered on Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Study-I (IRS-I) were analyzed after a minimum potential follow-up time of 7 years. Patients in Clinical Group I (localized disease, completely resected) were randomized to receive either vincristine, dactinomycin, and cyclophosphamide (VAC) or VAC + radiation. At 5 years, approximately 80% of patients given either treatment were still disease-free and there was no significant difference between treatments in the overall percentages of patients surviving of 93% and 81%, respectively (P = 0.67). Patients in Clinical Group II (regional disease, grossly resected) were randomized to receive either vincristine and dactinomycin (VA) + radiation or VAC + radiation. At 5 years, 72% and 65% of the patients, respectively, were disease-free and there was no evidence of a difference between treatments (P = 0.46). The overall survival percentage at 5 years was approximately 72% for both treatments. Patients in Clinical Groups III (gross residual disease after surgery) and IV (metastatic disease) were randomized to receive either "pulse" VAC + radiation or "pulse" VAC + Adriamycin (doxorubicin) + radiation. The complete remission (CR) rate was 69% in Clinical Group III and 50% in IV, with no statistically significant difference in CR rates between treatments in either group. Those who achieved a CR had a nearly 60% chance of staying in remission for 5 years in Clinical Group III compared with approximately 30% in Clinical Group IV. The overall survival percentage at 5 years was 52% in Clinical Group III compared to 20% in Clinical Group IV (P less than 0.0001). The 5-year survival percentage for the entire cohort of 686 patients was 55%. Survival after relapse was poor, being 32% at 1 year and 17% at 2 years. The risk of distant metastasis was much greater than the risk of local recurrence within each clinical group, and there was no evidence of differing types of relapses between treatments. Primary tumors of the orbit and genitourinary tract carried the best prognosis, whereas tumors of the retroperitoneum had the worst prognosis. The authors conclude that for the therapeutic regimens evaluated there was no therapeutic advantage to including radiation in the treatment of Clinical Group I disease, or cyclophosphamide given as a daily low-dose oral regimen in the treatment of Clinical Group II disease or Adriamycin in the treatment of Clinical Groups III and IV diseases.

The Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Study-I. A final report

The results of treatment of 686, previously untreated patients younger than 21 years with rhabdomyosarcoma or undifferentiated sarcoma, who were entered on Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Study-I (IRS-I) were analyzed after a minimum potential follow-up time of 7 years. Patients in Clinical Group I (localized disease, completely resected) were randomized to receive either vincristine, dactinomycin, and cyclophosphamide (VAC) or VAC + radiation. At 5 years, approximately 80% of patients given either treatment were still disease-free and there was no significant difference between treatments in the overall percentages of patients surviving of 93% and 81%, respectively (P = 0.67). Patients in Clinical Group II (regional disease, grossly resected) were randomized to receive either vincristine and dactinomycin (VA) + radiation or VAC + radiation. At 5 years, 72% and 65% of the patients, respectively, were disease-free and there was no evidence of a difference between treatments (P = 0.46). The overall survival percentage at 5 years was approximately 72% for both treatments. Patients in Clinical Groups III (gross residual disease after surgery) and IV (metastatic disease) were randomized to receive either "pulse" VAC + radiation or "pulse" VAC + Adriamycin (doxorubicin) + radiation. The complete remission (CR) rate was 69% in Clinical Group III and 50% in IV, with no statistically significant difference in CR rates between treatments in either group. Those who achieved a CR had a nearly 60% chance of staying in remission for 5 years in Clinical Group III compared with approximately 30% in Clinical Group IV. The overall survival percentage at 5 years was 52% in Clinical Group III compared to 20% in Clinical Group IV (P less than 0.0001). The 5-year survival percentage for the entire cohort of 686 patients was 55%. Survival after relapse was poor, being 32% at 1 year and 17% at 2 years. The risk of distant metastasis was much greater than the risk of local recurrence within each clinical group, and there was no evidence of differing types of relapses between treatments. Primary tumors of the orbit and genitourinary tract carried the best prognosis, whereas tumors of the retroperitoneum had the worst prognosis. The authors conclude that for the therapeutic regimens evaluated there was no therapeutic advantage to including radiation in the treatment of Clinical Group I disease, or cyclophosphamide given as a daily low-dose oral regimen in the treatment of Clinical Group II disease or Adriamycin in the treatment of Clinical Groups III and IV diseases.

Congenital anomalies associated with rhabdomyosarcoma: an autopsy study of 115 cases. A report from the Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Study Committee (representing the Children's Cancer Study Group, the Pediatric Oncology Group, the United Kingdom Children's Cancer Study Group, and the Pediatric Intergroup Statistical Center)

Congenital anomalies were identified in 37 of 115 (32%) children and adolescents autopsied with rhabdomyosarcoma. An analysis of sex, age, site, and histology of cases with or without congenital anomalies showed no significant differences. Of the 45 identified anomalies, 14 were considered major and 31 minor. The distribution of the anomalies by system included central nervous (9), genitourinary (10), gastrointestinal (13), and cardiovascular systems (4). Ten patients had complex or miscellaneous anomalies. There was one child with each of the following: Rubinstein-Taybi syndrome, neurofibromatosis, single horseshoe kidney, hemihypertrophy, and Arnold-Chiari malformation. Aniridia was not noted in any case of rhabdomyosarcoma. Individuals with rhabdomyosarcoma have an increased incidence of genitourinary anomalies similar to that in Wilms' tumor. Recent molecular genetic investigations have suggested that rhabdomyosarcoma, Wilms' tumor, and hepatoblastoma share a common pathogenetic mechanism involving chromosome 11. The uniquely increased association of central nervous system anomalies with rhabdomyosarcoma and absence of aniridia would support a different gene locus operative on chromosome 11 for individuals with rhabdomyosarcoma compared to Wilms' tumor. Extensive epidemiologic studies now in progress in patients with rhabdomyosarcoma should provide the incidence of congenital anomalies and potential linkage with prenatal events.

Paratesticular sarcoma in childhood and adolescence. A report from the Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Studies I and II, 1973-1983

This article reports on the diagnostic features, radiographic findings, staging, operative management, treatments, and treatment results for 95 children (mean age, 10 years) with paratesticular sarcoma; they were treated on the Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Study (IRS) I and II protocols. Embryonal rhabdomyosarcoma (RMS) was the most common histologic subtype (97% of cases). Patients were randomly assigned to receive various therapeutic regimens according to IRS protocols. Among 81 patients (85%) with localized disease, most (57) were in Clinical Group I (localized, completely excised tumors), and 20 were in Group II (gross excision with tumor-involved, regional retroperitoneal lymph nodes or microscopic residual). Only four were in Group III (gross residual disease in the primary site or retroperitoneal lymph nodes). Three of them achieved a complete response (CR) after induction therapy and two then relapsed. The relapse-free survival (RFS) estimates at 3 years from diagnosis were 93% in Group I and 90% in Group II. Distant metastases were present at diagnosis in only 14 patients. Twelve of them achieved CR, but four subsequently relapsed; their 3-year RFS estimate was 67%. Overall, survival rates among the 95 children were excellent (89% at 3 years) compared to the entire IRS series (63%). Treatment with radical orchidectomy and chemotherapy was sufficient for Group I patients. Orchidectomy, chemotherapy, and radiation therapy were highly effective in Group II patients and in a large proportion of those with more advanced tumors. Recommendations for the diagnostic examinations and management of future patients with paratesticular sarcoma are given.

A strategy for evaluation of new treatments in untreated patients: application to a clinical trial of AMSA for acute leukemia

This clinical trial (DT7995) was designed to evaluate amsacrine (AMSA) plus cytosine arabinoside (ara-C), vincristine, and prednisone (OAP) therapy in previously untreated patients with adult acute leukemia and to investigate a new strategy for assignment of patients to treatment using estimated probabilities of complete remission (PPR) based on six prognostic factors. In the first stage of the trial, patients with unfavorable prognosis (PPR less than .40) received AMSA-OAP for remission induction and patients with favorable prognosis (PPR greater than or equal to .40) received Adriamycin [Adria Laboratories, Columbus, OH] plus OAP (Ad-OAP). As AMSA-OAP was found to be promising in patients with unfavorable prognosis, it was administered to relatively more favorable patients (PPR less than .60) in the second stage of the trial and to all patients in the third stage. There were 242 patients entered into study; 134 received AMSA-OAP and 108 received Ad-OAP. Outcomes were compared with 242 paired patients who received Ad-OAP therapy from 1973 to 1977. The estimated complete remission rate in previously untreated adults with acute leukemia is 61% for patients receiving Ad-OAP (95% confidence interval, 59% to 64%). Overall, the survival experience for the 242 patients on DT7995 was significantly better than that in the control series (P = .03), but there was no strong statistical evidence (P = .10) that the 134 patients receiving AMSA-OAP had better survival than control patients receiving Ad-OAP, with a median of 32 v 21 weeks, respectively. It is concluded that AMSA-OAP is equivalent to Ad-OAP in the induction of complete remissions (estimated complete remission rate, 61%) and that assignment of patients to treatment based on predicted prognosis is an ethical and efficient strategy for the evaluation of new therapies in previously untreated patients with acute leukemia.

Improved prognosis with intensive treatment of children with cranial soft tissue sarcomas arising in nonorbital parameningeal sites. A report from the Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Study

In the first Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Study (IRS-I), it was found that, of 57 patients with nonorbital cranial parameningeal sarcoma treated from 1972 to 1976, 20 patients (35%) developed meningeal sarcoma and 90% (18/20) died of this complication. Since about half of these 20 patients had received inadequate radiation therapy and all had radiation therapy delayed until week 6, the treatment program was modified in December 1977 to begin radiation therapy on day 0 to the entire neuraxis and the primary tumor for all patients presenting with one or more risk factors indicating a high risk of meningeal involvement, and to administer periodic intrathecal medications to the same patients. The risk factors were intracranial extension of tumor, bony erosion at the cranial base, and cranial nerve palsy. In this report, the prognoses of two groups of patients with nonorbital cranial parameningeal sarcoma are compared: 95 patients treated before modification of the protocol in December 1977 with chemotherapy and nonintensive meningeal radiotherapy (preintensive group) and 68 patients treated subsequently with intensive meningeal radiotherapy and chemotherapy (intensive group). All patients received vincristine and actinomycin D (dactinomycin) with or without cyclophosphamide and Adriamycin (doxorubicin), according to the protocol. Radiation therapy consisted of 4000 to 5500 rad to the primary tumor in 5 to 6 weeks for most patients. The intensively treated patients also received intrathecal drugs via lumbar puncture and whole cranial or craniospinal radiation when one or more meningeal risk factors were present. In the preintensive group, the complete remission rate was 68% (65/95); the percentages of patients tumor free or alive at 3 years were 33% and 41%, respectively. In intensively treated patients, the complete remission rate was 76% (52/68); the percentages of patients tumor free or alive at 3 years were 57% and 68%, respectively. The improvements in the percentages of intensively treated patients tumor free or surviving were highly statistically significant (P less than 0.01 for both comparisons). Within the intensive treatment group, meningeal involvement at diagnosis was an unfavorable prognostic sign, since patients with no meningeal involvement had much better tumor-free survival at 3 years (81% vs. 51%) and survival (90% vs. 57%) than patients with evidence of meningeal involvement; the differences were highly statistically significant (P = 0.01).

Prognostic significance of staging factors of the UICC staging system in childhood rhabdomyosarcoma: a report from the Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Study (IRS-II)

The need for a pretreatment staging system to accurately assess programs of therapy for the various sites and stages of childhood rhabdomyosarcoma has become apparent as detailed analyses of many factors affecting prognosis and treatment choices have been accomplished through the national cooperative trial, the Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Study (IRS). Initiated in 1972, the IRS has thus far used a clinicopathologic grouping system that is based heavily on therapeutic decisions, particularly on whether or not excision is accomplished and the extent of such an operation. The major problem with this and several other staging classifications now in use is that they depend on pathologic data obtained after surgical treatment has been initiated or rejected. In addition, they do not consider histologic variations of this neoplasm which may be important in estimating prognosis. The large body of clinical data now accumulated in the IRS has provided an excellent opportunity for developing a database for evaluating the International Union Against Cancer (UICC) pretreatment staging system and also the potential for using histologic categories in the staging process. The records of 505 eligible patients entered into the IRS between 1978 and 1982 were used to determine the prognostic impact of a number of pretreatment factors. These included local invasiveness of the primary neoplasm on clinical examination, tumor size, clinical status of regional nodes, clinical or radiologic evidence of distant metastases, and favorable or unfavorable histologic categories. A retrospective assessment of the relationship of these pretreatment observations to survival experience has been carried out. This retrospective study indicates definite prognostic significance for all of the individual factors used on the UICC system except clinical status of regional nodes. Also, these data serve as a basis for considering the possibility of including favorable v unfavorable histology in the pretreatment staging system now being tested prospectively in the ongoing IRS protocols.

Randomized comparisons of radiotherapy and carmustine versus procarbazine versus dacarbazine for the treatment of malignant gliomas following surgery: a Southwest Oncology Group Study

Between 1977 and 1981, the Southwest Oncology Group entered 278 patients on a randomized study (SWOG 7703) to compare the effect of three different chemotherapeutic agents given in combination with radiotherapy (6000 rads over 7 weeks) following surgery for malignant gliomas. The chemotherapy regimens were: carmustine (BCNU)--80 mg/m2 iv daily X 3 every 6 weeks; procarbazine (PCB)--100 mg/m2 orally; or dacarbazine (DTIC)--175 mg/m2 iv daily X 5 every 4 weeks. Patients were stratified according to age, and degree of resection, with no differences identified between groups. The response rates (complete plus partial) for BCNU and DTIC were significantly better than for PCB [BCNU, 39%; PCB, 13%; and DTIC, 38% (P less than 0.01)]. The response duration and survival were somewhat better in patients treated with BCNU and DTIC, but compared to patients treated with PCB, the difference was not statistically significant. Median survival times were: BCNU, 45 weeks; PCB, 31 weeks; and DTIC, 49 weeks (P greater than 0.3). There were six toxic deaths with BCNU and four with PCB, most of which were due to infection associated with leukopenia. The high toxicity and minimal benefit of chemotherapy added to radiotherapy compared to historical results with radiotherapy alone suggest that combined treatment may not be indicated for some patients.

Postsplenectomy sepsis and other complications following staging laparotomy for Hodgkin's disease in childhood

This is a survey of 234 pediatric patients in whom staging laparotomy/splenectomy was carried out (1975 to 1981) in the course of the Intergroup Hodgkin's Disease in Childhood Study (IHDCS). Relapse has occurred in 44 of these patients, and 12 have died, 7 secondary to extension of lymphoma, 2 with herpes or pneumocystis infections, 2 with leukemia, and 1 from an unrelated accident. During the period of surveillance (mean 5.5 yr), five episodes of bacterial sepsis (positive blood cultures) have occurred, including two due to Streptococcus pneumoniae; and three, to Hemophilus influenzae. The former occurred in the small group of patients in this series who had not received the prescribed pneumococcal vaccination. No fatalities were associated with these septic episodes. Intestinal obstruction secondary to adhesions (benign) occurred in eight patients and was managed without intestinal resection or mortality. One patient required operative release of an obstructed ureter following laparotomy, and one, oophorectomy for an infarcted (transposed) ovary.