Temporal trends in the incidence of HIV infection in antenatal clinic attendees in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 1995-2003

BACKGROUND

The HIV incidence data are relevant in depicting the current dynamics and trend of the epidemic. Using a new laboratory method for HIV-1 incidence, we aimed at estimating a 10-year trend in HIV-1 incidence in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

METHODS

We determined the temporal trends in HIV incidence based on a total of 7744 serum specimens from pregnant women who attended antenatal clinics in Addis Ababa between 1995 and 2003. HIV incidence was determined by IgG-capture HIV-1 BED incidence enzyme immunoassay following a validation using a well-characterized panel of serial serum specimens from subtype C-infected seroconverters.

FINDINGS

Of the 1350 HIV+ specimens tested as part of the annual sentinel survey between 1995 and 2003, a total of 1332 (98.7%) were tested by BED HIV-1 incidence assay. The incidence rate of HIV-1 infection declined significantly from 7.7% (95% CI, 3.9-11.5%) in 1995 to 2.0% (95% CI, 0.7-3.3%) in 2003. Although there was a trend, amongst the age group of 15-29 years, in age-specific decline in incidence, it was not statistically significant. No change in HIV incidence rate was observed for the group aged above 30 years.

INTERPRETATION

A corresponding decline in the incidence of HIV infection was observed with the decline in the prevalence of HIV infection between 1995 and 2003 in Addis Ababa City. Whether the declines were because of changes in sexual behaviours or other reasons needs to be explored. The BED HIV-1 incidence assay provides a valuable tool in obtaining information on recent HIV-1 infection.

Low CD4+ T-cell count and high HIV viral load precede the development of tuberculosis disease in a cohort of HIV-positive Ethiopians

SETTING

Prospective cohort study, Ethiopia.

OBJECTIVE

To study changes in biological markers of HIV infection progression before and after development of TB disease.

DESIGN

A longitudinal study of 804 adult factory workers (95 HIV-positive, 709 HIV-negative), who were followed every 6 months for a median of 3.8 years.

RESULTS

Overall, the incidence rate of TB was 10/222 = 45.1 (95%CI 24.3-83.9) per 1000 person-years of observation (PYO) among HIV-1-positive participants, compared to 14/2054 = 6.8 (95%CI 4.0-11.5) per 1000 PYO among HIV-1-negative participants (incidence rate ratio 6.62, 95%CI 2.94-14.9). Among the 10 HIV-positive participants who subsequently developed TB disease, the CD4 count was low (median 201/microliter, range 45-419), and viral load high (median 4.97 log copies/ml, range 3.70-5.58), at the routine follow-up visit prior to TB diagnosis. Following TB treatment, plasma viral load remained persistently elevated despite clinical resolution of TB disease, and seven of the 10 patients died within a median time of 8 months.

CONCLUSION

In this cohort, HIV-infected Ethiopians who developed TB disease already had low CD4 counts and high viral load prior to the diagnosis of TB. Viral load did not decrease following TB treatment, leading to a poor overall prognosis in these patients.

Low CD4+ T-cell count and high HIV viral load precede the development of tuberculosis disease in a cohort of HIV-positive ethiopians

SETTING

Prospective cohort study, Ethiopia.

OBJECTIVE

To study changes in biological markers of HIV infection progression before and after development of TB disease.

DESIGN

A longitudinal study of 804 adult factory workers (95 HIV-positive, 709 HIV-negative), who were followed every 6 months for a median of 3.8 years.

RESULTS

Overall, the incidence rate of TB was 10/ 222 = 45.1 (95%CI 24.3-83.9) per 1000 person-years of observation (PYO) among HIV-1-positive participants, compared to 14/2,054 = 6.8 (95%CI 4.0-11.5) per 1,000 PYO among HIV-1-negative participants (incidence rate ratio 6.62, 95%CI 2.94-14.9). Among the 10 HIV-positive participants who subsequently developed TB disease, the CD4 count was low (median 201/microl, range 45-419), and viral load high (median 4.97 log copies/ml, range 3.70-5.58), at the routine follow-up visit prior to TB diagnosis. Following TB treatment, plasma viral load remained persistently elevated despite clinical resolution of TB disease, and seven of the 10 patients died within a median time of 8 months.

CONCLUSION

In this cohort, HIV-infected Ethiopians who developed TB disease already had low CD4 counts and high viral load prior to the diagnosis of TB. Viral load did not decrease following TB treatment, leading to a poor overall prognosis in these patients.

Distribution of lymphocyte subsets in healthy human immunodeficiency virus-negative adult Ethiopians from two geographic locales

Immunological values for 562 factory workers from Wonji, Ethiopia, a sugar estate 114 km southeast of the capital city, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, were compared to values for 218 subjects from Akaki, Ethiopia, a suburb of Addis Ababa, for whom partial data were previously published. The following markers were measured: lymphocytes, T cells, B cells, NK cells, CD4(+) T cells, and CD8(+) T cells. A more in depth comparison was also made between Akaki and Wonji subjects. For this purpose, various differentiation and activation marker (CD45RA, CD27, HLA-DR, and CD38) expressions on CD4(+) and CD8(+) T cells were studied in 60 male, human immunodeficiency virus-negative subjects (30 from each site). Data were also compared with Dutch blood donor control values. The results confirmed that Ethiopians have significantly decreased CD4(+) T-cell counts and highly activated immune status, independent of the geographic locale studied. They also showed that male subjects from Akaki have significantly higher CD8(+) T-cell counts, resulting in a proportional increase in each of the CD8(+) T-cell compartments studied: naïve (CD45RA(+)CD27(+)), memory (CD45RA(-)CD27(+)), cytotoxic effector (CD45RA(+)CD27(-)), memory/effector (CD45RA(-)CD27(-)), activated (HLA-DR(+)CD38(+)), and resting (HLA-DR(-)CD38(-)). No expansion of a specific functional subset was observed. Endemic infection or higher immune activation is thus not a likely cause of the higher CD8 counts in the Akaki subjects. The data confirm and extend earlier observations and suggest that, although most lymphocyte subsets are comparable between the two geographical locales, there are also differences. Thus, care should be taken in extrapolating immunological reference values from one population group to another.

Immunohematological reference ranges for adult Ethiopians

A cross-sectional survey was carried out with 485 healthy working adult Ethiopians who are participating in a cohort study on the progression of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection to establish hematological reference ranges for adult HIV-negative Ethiopians. In addition, enumeration of absolute numbers and percentages of leukocyte subsets was performed for 142 randomly selected HIV-negative individuals. Immunological results were compared to those of 1,356 healthy HIV-negative Dutch blood donor controls. Immunohematological mean values, medians, and 95th percentile reference ranges were established. Mean values were as follows: leukocyte (WBC) counts, 6.1 x 10(9)/liter (both genders); erythrocyte counts, 5.1 x 10(12)/liter (males) and 4.5 x 10(12)/liter (females); hemoglobin, 16.1 (male) and 14.3 (female) g/dl; hematocrit, 48.3% (male) and 42.0% (female); platelets, 205 x 10(9)/liter (both genders); monocytes, 343/microl; granulocytes, 3, 057/microl; lymphocytes, 1,857/microl; CD4 T cells, 775/microl; CD8 T cells, 747/microl; CD4/CD8 T-cell ratio, 1.2; T cells, 1, 555/microl; B cells, 191/microl; and NK cells, 250/microl. The major conclusions follow. (i) The WBC and platelet values of healthy HIV-negative Ethiopians are lower than the adopted reference values of Ethiopia. (ii) The absolute CD4 T-cell counts of healthy HIV-negative Ethiopians are considerably lower than those of the Dutch controls, while the opposite is true for the absolute CD8 T-cell counts. This results in a significantly reduced CD4/CD8 T-cell ratio for healthy Ethiopians, compared to the ratio for Dutch controls.

Evaluation of the World Health Organization staging system for HIV infection and disease in Ethiopia: association between clinical stages and laboratory markers

OBJECTIVE

To study the association between the clinical axis of the World Health Organization (WHO) staging system of HIV infection and disease and laboratory markers in HIV-infected Ethiopians.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

METHODS

Clinical manifestations and stage of HIV-positive individuals participating in a cohort study of HIV infection progression, and of HIV-positive patients hospitalized with suspicion of AIDS, were compared to CD4+ T-cell count and viral load.

RESULTS

Of the 86 HIV-positive participants of the cohort study, 53 (62%), 16 (19%), 16 (19%), and one (1.2%) were in stage 1, 2, 3 and 4, respectively. Minor weight loss (n = 15) and pulmonary tuberculosis (n = 9) were the most commonly diagnosed conditions among the 38 (44%) symptomatic HIV-positive individuals. Although 23 (27%) HIV-positive participants had CD4+ T-cell counts less than 200 x 10(6)/l, only one was in clinical stage 4. Among 79 hospitalized HIV-positive patients, 15 (19%) and 64 (81%) were in stage 3 and 4, respectively. The majority (83.5%) had CD4+ T-cell counts < 200 x 10(6)/l. Individuals at stage 3 had lower CD4+ T-cell counts and higher viral loads when seen in hospital as compared to cohort participants (P = 0.06 and 0.008, respectively). When grouping the two study populations, the median CD4+ T-cell count decreased (337, 262, 225, 126, and 78 x 10(6)/l, P< 0.01), and the median viral load increased (4.08, 3.89, 4.47, 5.65, and 5.65 log10 copies/ml, P < 0.01), with increasing clinical stage of HIV infection (1, 2, 3 cohort, 3 hospital, and 4, respectively). Median CD4+ T-cell counts were remarkably low in HIV-negative participants (749 x 10(6)/l), and in HIV-positive participants at stage 1 and 2 (337 and 262 x 10(6)/l, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

There was a good correlation between WHO clinical stages and biological markers. CD4+ T-cell counts were low in Ethiopians, particularly during early stages of HIV-1 infection, and preliminary reference values at different stages of HIV-1 infection were determined. In HIV-infected Ethiopians, lymphocyte counts less than 1,000 x 10(6)/l in non-hospitalized individuals, and less than 2,000 x 10(6)/l in hospitalized patients, had high positive predictive value, but low sensitivity, in identifying subjects with low CD4+ T-cell counts (< 200 x 10(6)/l) who would benefit from chemoprophylaxis of opportunistic infections. The on-going longitudinal study will be useful to confirm the prognostic value of the WHO staging system.