Discriminative value of FRAX for fracture prediction in a cohort of Chinese postmenopausal women

We followed 2,266 postmenopausal Chinese women for 4.5 years to determine which model best predicts osteoporotic fracture. A model that contains ethnic-specific risk factors, some of which reflect frailty, performed as well as or better than the well-established FRAX model.

INTRODUCTION

Clinical risk assessment, with or without T-score, can predict fractures in Chinese postmenopausal women although it is unknown which combination of clinical risk factors is most effective. This prospective study sought to compare the accuracy for fracture prediction using various models including FRAX, our ethnic-specific clinical risk factors (CRF) and other simple models.

METHODS

This study is part of the Hong Kong Osteoporosis Study. A total of 2,266 treatment naïve postmenopausal women underwent clinical risk factor and bone mineral density assessment. Subjects were followed up for outcome of major osteoporotic fracture and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for different models were compared. The percentage of subjects in different quartiles of risk according to various models who actually fractured was also compared.

RESULTS

The mean age at baseline was 62.1 ± 8.5 years and mean follow-up time was 4.5 ± 2.8 years. A total of 106 new major osteoporotic fractures were reported, of which 21 were hip fractures. Ethnic-specific CRF with T-score performed better than FRAX with T-score (based on both Chinese normative and National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) databases) in terms of AUC comparison for prediction of major osteoporotic fracture. The two models were similar in hip fracture prediction. The ethnic-specific CRF model had a 10% higher sensitivity than FRAX at a specificity of 0.8 or above.

CONCLUSION

CRF related to frailty and differences in lifestyle between populations are likely to be important in fracture prediction. Further work is required to determine which and how CRF can be applied to develop a fracture prediction model in our population.

Determinants of bone mineral density in Chinese men

Osteoporotic fractures are increasing among Asian populations in both genders, but the risk factors for low bone mineral density (BMD) in Asian men is unclear. To determine the hormonal and lifestyle risk factors for low BMD in Asian men, we studied 407 community-dwelling southern Chinese men aged 50 years and above. Medical history and lifestyle habits were obtained with a structured questionnaire. Dietary calcium and phytoestrogen intake were assessed by a semi-quantitative questionnaire. BMD at the spine and hip were measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). Fasting blood was analyzed for 25(OH)D, parathyroid hormone (PTH), total and bioavailable estradiol (bio-E) and testosterone (bio-T). The mean age of the cohort was 68.42+/-10.4 (50-96) years. In the linear regression model, weight, age, body mass index (BMI), bio-E, PTH, cigarette smoking and weight-bearing exercise were significant determinants of total hip BMD. Together they explained 55% of the total variance of hip BMD, with body weight being the most important determining factor. With age and weight adjustment, height, bio-T and flavonoid intake were identified as additional determinants of total hip BMD. Strategies to prevent bone loss and osteoporosis in Asian men should include lifestyle modification and maintenance of hormonal sufficiency.