Impact of analysis technique on our understanding of the natural history of labour: a simulation study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the discrepancy between historical and more recent descriptions of the first stage of labour by testing whether the statistical techniques used recently (repeated-measures polynomial and interval-censored regression) were appropriate for detection of periods of rapid acceleration of cervical dilatation as might occur at the time of transition from a latent to an active phase of labour.

DESIGN AND SETTING

A simulation study using regression techniques.

SAMPLE

We created a simulated data set for 500 000 labours with clearly defined latent and active phases using the parameters described by Friedman. Additionally, we created a data set comprising 500 000 labours with a progressively increasing rate of cervical dilatation.

METHODS

Repeated-measures polynomial regression was used to create summary labour curves based on simulated cervical examinations. Interval-censored regression was used to create centimetre-by-centimetre estimates of rates of cervical dilatation and their 95th centiles.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Labour summary curves and rates of cervical dilatation.

RESULTS

Repeated-measures polynomial regression did not detect the rapid acceleration in cervical dilatation (i.e. acceleration phase) and overestimated lengths of labour, especially at smaller cervical dilatations. There was a two-fold overestimation in the mean rate of cervical dilatation from 4 to 6 cm. Interval-censored regression overestimated median transit times, at 4- to 5-cm cervical dilatation or when cervical examinations occurred less frequently than 0.5- to 1.5-hourly.

CONCLUSION

Repeated-measures polynomial regression and interval-censored regression should not be routinely used to define labour progress because they do not accurately reflect the underlying data.

TWEETABLE ABSTRACT

Repeated-measures polynomial and interval-censored regression techniques are not appropriate to model first stage of labour.

New Australian birthweight centiles

OBJECTIVES

To prepare more accurate population-based Australian birthweight centile charts by using the most recent population data available and by excluding pre-term deliveries by obstetric intervention of small for gestational age babies.

DESIGN

Population-based retrospective observational study.

SETTING

Australian Institute of Health and Welfare National Perinatal Data Collection.

PARTICIPANTS

All singleton births in Australia of 23-42 completed weeks' gestation and with spontaneous onset of labour, 2004-2013. Births initiated by obstetric intervention were excluded to minimise the influence of decisions to deliver small for gestational age babies before term.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Birthweight centile curves, by gestational age and sex.

RESULTS

Gestational age, birthweight, sex, and labour onset data were available for 2 807 051 singleton live births; onset of labour was spontaneous for 1 582 137 births (56.4%). At pre-term gestational ages, the 10th centile was higher than the corresponding centile in previous Australian birthweight charts based upon all births.

CONCLUSION

Current birthweight centile charts probably underestimate the incidence of intra-uterine growth restriction because obstetric interventions for delivering pre-term small for gestational age babies depress the curves at earlier gestational ages. Our curves circumvent this problem by excluding intervention-initiated births; they also incorporate more recent population data. These updated centile curves could facilitate more accurate diagnosis of small for gestational age babies in Australia.