Evolution of Multidimensional Poverty in Crisis-Ridden Mozambique

Mozambique experienced important reductions in the poverty rate until recently, before two major natural disasters hit, an armed insurgency stroke in the northern province of Cabo Delgado, and the country started suffering from a hidden debt crisis with associated economic slowdown. As the last available national household expenditure survey is from 2014/15, just before these crises started unfolding, there is need for a poverty assessment based on alternative data sources. We study the evolution of multidimensional poverty in Mozambique using survey data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). Using both the standard Alkire-Foster multidimensional poverty index and the first-order dominance (FOD) method, we find that the multidimensional poverty reduction trend observed between 2009-11 and 2015 halted between 2015 and 2018. Meanwhile, the number of poor people increased, mainly in rural areas and in the central provinces. Importantly, the poorest provinces did not improve their rankings over time, and between 2015 and 2018, no progress took place for most areas and provinces, as measured by the FOD approach.

The macroeconomic impact of COVID-19 in Mozambique: A social accounting matrix approach

This study assesses the economic costs of COVID-19 and the state of emergency implemented by the Government of Mozambique. We use a social accounting matrix multiplier analysis to estimate the effects of the pandemic on the economy. Our simulations suggest that the Mozambican economy lost 3.6 percentage points of GDP growth in 2020 and that employment was 1.9 percentage points down. These losses were primarily driven by export shocks, the most heavily affected sectors being trade and accommodation and mining. Mozambique faces a critical challenge of how to promote economic diversification and reduce vulnerability to foreign shocks.

The impact of COVID-19 on consumption poverty in Mozambique

This study assesses the impact of COVID-19 on household consumption poverty. To predict changes in income and the associated effects on poverty, we rely on existing estimated macroeconomic impacts. We assume two main impact channels: direct income/wage and employment losses. Our simulations suggest that consumption decreased by 7.1%-14.4% and that poverty increased by 4.3-9.9 percentage points in 2020. This points to a reversal of the positive poverty reduction trend observed in previous years. Poverty most certainly increased in the pre-COVID period due to other shocks, so Mozambique finds itself in a deepening struggle against poverty.

Understanding poverty dynamics in Ethiopia: Implications for the likely impact of COVID-19

We aim at identifying vulnerable groups that face a higher risk of falling into poverty due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Applying a synthetic panel data approach, our analysis of poverty and vulnerability transitions during the pre-COVID period shows not only a high rate of poverty persistence in Ethiopia but also a high probability of moving from vulnerable nonpoor status to poor status. Given the observed persistence of poverty and greater risk of downward mobility, even in the pre-COVID period, it is highly likely that poverty persistence and downward mobility will be aggravated during the current pandemic. A detailed poverty profiling exercise shows that households where the household head is less educated, engaged in the service sector, self-employed, and a domestic worker are population segments with a high rate of downward mobility. As the emerging evidence on the socioeconomic impact of COVID shows, these segments of the population are also the ones relatively more affected by the pandemic. Overall, the pandemic is likely to result in a serious setback to the progress made in poverty reduction in Ethiopia. Poverty reduction policies should thus target not only the existing poor but also the vulnerable nonpoor.

Poverty, vulnerability and Covid-19: Introduction and overview

This symposium issue speaks to the topic of poverty dynamics and vulnerability during an unusual, unexpected and damaging global pandemic. We provide here an introduction and overview to the symposium.

Poverty and vulnerability in Mozambique: An analysis of dynamics and correlates in light of the Covid-19 crisis using synthetic panels

This study aims at providing new insights into poverty, vulnerability, and their correlates in Mozambique, applying synthetic panels techniques and expanding on earlier analyses. Our results suggest that there is a high degree of poverty immobility, especially in rural areas in the northern and central regions and for low-educated people. Even nonpoor households are at a high risk to vulnerability, and this risk does not differ much for households in urban/rural areas or in different regions or with different education levels. We also observe that a large portion of the population remains in or out of poverty over the entire year, with a higher percentage of individuals moving into poverty between the dry and the rainy seasons and a nonnegligible proportion of vulnerable people not managing to revert to nonpoverty in the subsequent dry season. Overall, these findings are highly relevant for designing anti-poverty policies and strategies, as they provide information on intra-year shocks and on some of the characteristics related to upward and downward mobility over longer time spans, also with regard to the recent Covid-19 and other recent shocks suffered by the country.

Multidimensional Nutritional Welfare of Children in Southern Africa: A Human Rights Consistent Approach

The last 10 years have witnessed a surge in international focus on the long-term health and socioeconomic impacts of malnutrition. Here, we employ a rights consistent approach to evaluate the nutritional welfare of children under 5 years in Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Specifically, we apply a first order dominance (FOD) approach to multidimensional welfare measurement. In this context, nutritional welfare dimensions are treated as rights. With the FOD approach, comparisons across time and space adhere to key principles set forth in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. For comparison, we also apply the Alkire-Foster (AF) approach, which is well known for its application in the United Nations Development Programme's Multidimensional Poverty Index. Indicators relevant to the nutritional welfare of young children are drawn from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) from the early- to mid-2000s and the most recent data point. Four common welfare indicators crucial to child nutrition are employed in both the FOD and AF approaches: stunting/wasting, drinking water, sanitation facilities, and mother's education. Over time, all countries advanced the nutritional wellbeing of children at the national and rural levels. Malawi made the most pronounced gains improving its rank among the 5 countries considered from fourth to second among nations and among urban areas. Though Mozambique made substantial progress in access to urban and rural water, rural sanitation, and urban education, relatively small gains in stunting and wasting widened the nutritional welfare gap with its neighbors. Nationally, nutritional welfare levels in Mozambique remain notably low ranking below the rural areas in all other countries. Even urban areas in Mozambique are ranked below rural Malawi and rural Zimbabwe. Stagnation or decline in access to safe urban water and/or sanitation, as well as nutrition in Mozambique, prevented advance in the urban areas of Mozambique, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.

Adapting to climate change: an integrated biophysical and economic assessment for Mozambique

Mozambique, like many African countries, is already highly susceptible to climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change threatens to heighten this vulnerability. In order to evaluate potential impacts and adaptation options for Mozambique, we develop an integrated modeling framework that translates atmospheric changes from general circulation model projections into biophysical outcomes via detailed hydrologic, crop, hydropower and infrastructure models. These sector models simulate a historical baseline and four extreme climate change scenarios. Sector results are then passed down to a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, which is used to estimate economy-wide impacts on national welfare, as well as the total cost of damages caused by climate change. Potential damages without changes in policy are significant; our discounted estimates range from US$ 2.3 to US $7.4 billion during 2003-2050. Our analysis identifies improved road design and agricultural sector investments as key 'no-regret' adaptation measures, alongside intensified efforts to develop a more flexible and resilient society. Our findings also support the need for cooperative river basin management and the regional coordination of adaptation strategies.